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Published on Thursday, 17 August 2017 15:40

Vuelta Jerseys Betting

Who's going to win the other key jerseys?

The competition for the KOM and sprinters jerseys in the Vuelta are as competitive and hard-fought as in every other Grand Tour, and equally as difficult to try to predict a winner for!

The Vuelta does its own thing with regards to the colour of its leader's jersey - no TDF yellow for the Spaniards, instead it's a patriotic red jersey that the leader of the Tour of Spain wears and is as iconic as the Maglia Rosa of the Giro.   

And it's not the only jersey in the Vuelta that gets a change of colour, with the King of the Mountains jersey a distinctive blue polka-dot. They do stick with the more conventional green for the Points leader's jersey though which is a bit disappointing, a crazy orange or purple or something like that would complete the set nicely! And a distinction for the Vuelta from other tours is the white 'Combined classification' jersey which Froome wore last year (below). 

Like in the Tour, these competitions are just as hard to predict, if not harder than the overall GC winner. In the GC at least you can probably narrrow it down to about four or five guys. The KOM jersey in the Vuelta could genuinely be won by about 25 guys, and it is a guessing game as to whether one of the GC favourites wins it by accident or design, or whether a non-GC climber decides to go for it early, builds a decent lead and then gets in the breaks of the day on some of the bigger scoring stages to seal it.

The Points jersey isn't as bad, but there is going to be a battle between puncheurs and GC riders as stages are awarded equal points, regardless of the type of finish in the Vuelta, very different to the Tour where sprint stages are awarded more points. And as there are almost no sprint stages or sprinters here as a result, then it's puncheurs and climbers who will be fighting it out this year you would think. 

Last year I picked Alejandro Valverde to win the Points jersey and he led it comfortably all the way to stage 20, when incredibly Fabio Felline got in the break of the day, hoovered up the intermediate points and took 3rd on the stage, to leapfrog Valverde and in to the lead! We had better luck with our KOM pick though, as our headline Omar Fraile won for us at 11/2. But boy was it close, he beat Kenny Elissonde by a single, solitary point! 

{tab Points Jersey }

Points Jersey

The Points competition in the Vuelta isn't really a sprinters competition as such, as the mountainous nature of the race means most of the big sprinters give it a skip, and it's more so than ever this year with only 2 or 3 stages likely to end in a sprint for sprinters.

The Points Jersey in the Vuelta differs from the Tour in the way that points are awarded to the winners of stages. In the Tour they award more points to sprint stages than to mountain stages, but in the Vuelta the same amount of points are awarded to each stage winner, so you therefore get more of the GC contenders in the running for the points jersey.

Also, maybe significantly, 25 points are also awarded to the winner of the time trial on stage 16, it could be one of the reasons that Chris Froome has opened as 7/2 favourite with Bet365. The breakdown of the awarding of the points is on the right. 

This way of awarding the same points to mountain stages as sprints was to the detriment of John Dekenkolb in 2012 when he won no fewer than four stages (and two 2nds), yet only finished 4^th in the points competition as he was nowhere to be seen once the road tilted upwards. It was very clear two years ago too how much the GC men/climbers have an edge in this race when Valverde won from Rodriguez, Chaves, Dumoulin, Roche and Aru with Degenkolb in 7th place. 

Sprinters can win it though, as Felline showed last year (although he showed that he is more an all-rounder/puncheur than out-and-out sprinter), Degenkolb also showed it's possible in 2013 when he won it by 23 points from Valverde, with Contador, Froome and Rodriguez behind him. Mark Cavendish also won it in 2010. 

The Points Competition Contenders 

This is a really strange competition this year to try to predict as there are so few sprint stages (probably less than 5) and indeed almost no sprinters at all here as a result. So it's not going to be easy for a sprinter type to win it this year and we could really see the points scattered all over the place, with maybe the GC men getting in on the action as a result. If Froome or someone wins a few stages and finishes in the top 3 or 4 on a number of others (which is entirely possible), it could be enough to win the points competition.  

And lo and behold, when Bet365 came out with their market on the points compeition on Wed morning they had made Chris Froome their 7/2 favourite. I guess they think that he will consistently score points over the many mountainous stages, and probably will come close to winning the TT too, so he's going to be good for a lot of points. And it's hard to argue - unless he just has a bad tour or some misfortune he'll be right up there on the many mountain stages and he could possibly win some stages to boot. 

But he did show vulnerability in the Tour and if he struggles early on then that bet might dive.. but it made me think - if you think he's going to win the Vuelta, then take the 7/2 on him winning the points competition instead as the two are going to be so closely linked - if he wins the Vuelta I think he probably wins the points comp too. 

Next in the betting is a sort of hybrid between the GC types and the sprinter types, with Julian Alaphilippe at 5/1. Alaphilippe has been out for a lot of this season after suffereing a knee injury during Pais Vasco in April, but he returned to proper action in the Vuelta a Burgos just a few weeks back and it was a pretty impressive return from him. 3rd on two stages, he was right up there in the thick of the action and looked like he was going to win stage 4 until Moscon came charging past him in the last 50m. Understandably he lost over 4 minutes to Landa on the tough, long climbs to Picon Blanco on stage 3 and Lagunas de Neila on stage 5 given his long absence off the bike, but he should strip much fitter for the Vuelta having raced prominently at the VAB, and with not a lot of racing in his legs this season. 

He will like a lot of these punchy finishes and unlike Froome he could well be on the attack on a number of stages where he will take the 4pts on offer for the intermediate sprints. Quick-Step will be looking after De La Cruz for the GC, but there is no reason why JA can't look after himself and get in breaks and get involved in the sprint finishes. 

John Degenkolb pops in to represent the sprinters at 9/1 and he of course is a past winner of the points competition in the Vuelta, having taken it in 2014 on a route that had 6 sprinter-friendly stages. He won four of those stages in a dominant display of power that was vintage Degenkolb from 2014/15. Degenkolb has in fact won 10 stages in total in the Vuelta, so there is no doubt that he likes it around here.

It's a very different Degenkolb now though since his crash at the start of last season, he rarely challenges for wins these days in the big races, with his only win this season coming on the 2nd February in the Dubai Tour. But there have been lots of top 5 placings along the way, he just finds a few too good for him almost every time, he just doesn't have that zip or bravado any more.

But this is a different league altogether though this year in the Vuelta, despite it being a GT. Not one of the top sprinters in the world are here, they have all thought better of picking up a few scraps during 3 weeks of hell in the Spanish sun. If there ever was a chance for Degenkolb to get some wins on the board and some confidence back, this is it. He could, theoretically, take a few stages early on, and if he works consistently from then on to defend the jersey and gets a good result in the final stage in Madrid then he could have a chance, especially if the points are spread around quite a lot. 

Vincenzo Nibali comes next in the betting, and I guess he is in the same boat as Froome - if he want's to be challenging for the GC then he needs to be up there scoring high placings and trying to win a few stages along the way. The big difference between Froome and Nibali though is that Froome will finish 10-15 places above Nibali at least in the TT, so Nibs is going to have to win a few stages probably to get the jump on him. And I can't see it, I'm not touching the 9/1 on him.

Alberto Contador pops in at 14/1 and again I can't have him for this. I don't think he'll win any stages and he could well find himself attacking on some stages and fading and coming home around 20th-30th place, thus losing chances of taking points. I think he will be on the attack a lot, and I'd love to see him take a stage win or two in his final race, but I don't think he'll score consistently enough to get the vote.

Matteo Trentin was a guy I was thinking about for this before prices came out, but it would mean he'll be fighting it out with his team-mate Alaphilippe. He is priced up at 18/1 though with Ladbrokes and would have a chance of doing alright in this competition given his ability in sprints and uphill finishes. He warmed up for this with an impressive win in stage 2 of the Vuelta a Burgos, accelerating very fast up the left side of the road just as the sprinters were about to launch, getting a gap and holding it to the line.

After a fantastic 5th place in the opening TT of the TDF, just 10" behind Thomas and just 2" behind Tony Martin, he slipped back towards the back of the field more than the front following a crash on stage 4 to Vittel. It got worse for him on stage 9 when he came down in the crash on the descent of the Col de la Biche that Rafal Majka and Geraint Thomas fell victim to too. He limped the next 108kms in a lot of pain and just missed the time cut by 3mins. But his ride in Burgos shows that he is fit and healthy again and could be a factor in a lot of stages and breakaways here, if he gets in a break that contests the win, he would be a strong favourite for victory. 

Magnus Cort Neilsen could well be a key challenger for the jersey this year though, again highlighting how second-tier sprinters could well have a field-day in the few sprint stages that are in the race. The difference between MCN and JD though is that MCN will fare better I think on some of the hillier stages than JD and could pick up intermediate sprint points from breaks and from hanging in there when other sprinters might be dropped. Orica-Scott are built around their climbers though, the team will be here to look after Adam Yates and Esteban Chaves and he might find himself having to fend for himself in some of the stages as he will be down the priority list.

Sacha Modolo is another who could go well in this, he hasn't had a bad season really, taking four wins, the most recent of which was just a few weeks back in the Tour de Pologne. The problem with him again, like MCN is that the team is built around Costa, Meintjes and Atapuma so he will have to make do with Polanc, Mohoric and Niemiec leading him out, but he is good at surfing wheels and can nab a few top 3s I think. 18/1 is a bit short for him though, we may not see him for about 3/4s of this race.

Juan José Lobato won his first race since May 2016 two weeks ago when beating Nacer Bouhanni to the win in a stage of the Tour de l'Ain. A man who had more DNFs than finishes it seemed towards the end of last year, he seems to have settled down with LottoNL this season and has started to land quite a few top 10s, albeit that they are mostly in lower grade events. LottoNL have Kruisjwijk for the GC, but other than that they should be looking for stage wins and Lobato could well benefit from some good team support from the likes of Clement, de Tiers, Bennett, Bouwman and Lindeman. He could be an outsider for a stage win, but I fear we will not see enough of him in the rest of the race to take a top 3 placing at just 20/1, I'd need about 40/1.  

Edward Theuns, Dani Moreno, Esteban Chaves, Jose Joaquin Rojas Gil, Adam Yates, Wilco Kelderman, Fabio Aru etc etc... so many guys who will pick up random points here and there. I was a little worried about Froome as he's been faffing about in criteriums all over the world (Kazakhstan last week) since his Tour win with no proper racing but I think he will be very hard to beat still for the overall and could well take the points comp too, so maybe have a small bet on him to win the points too at 4/1 with Skybet e/w. I'd also like to have a little interest in Trentin for now and will watch for Alaphilippe to see if we can get 8/1 or so in the opening days, he might drift in price a little if someone like Degenkolb wins the stage 2 sprint.  

1pt e/w on Matteo Trentin at 18/1 with Ladbrokes

1pt e/w on Chris Froome at 4/1 with Skybet

{tab KOM Jersey}

King of the Mountains Betting Preview

The KOM competition in the Vuelta is similar to the KOM in the Tour de France in that the leader wears a polka-dot jersey, but it differs in that it's blue polka-dots, not red. It hasn't always been that way though - ever since it was first introduced in 1935 it was actually a green jersey the leader wore, until it was changed to an orange jersey in 2006 and then in 2010 it became a blue polka-dot jersey.

Spaniards have won the jersey on 49 times out of 70, with José Luis Laguia winning it a record 5 times. Omar Fraile added to that record again last year, taking the jersey for the second year running. As is often the case in the Vuelta, there were no GC men to be seen near the top, it was all breakaway riders who led the way, with Quintana in 5th the closest GC man. 

There are also differences in the categories, in that the Vuelta has four categories compared to five in the Tour, Cat 1,2, 3 and Especiale climbs, but when a stage finishes on the top of the the highest point in the race, the first over the top wins the Cima Alberto Fernández for which 5 more points are awarded, or 20pts in total. This year it's on the top of the Alto Hoya de la Mora (Sierra Nevada) on stage 15 which is over 2,500m.

The full points breakdown are above to the right, they are the exact same as last year. So the winner generally scores a lot less than say the winner of the KOM in the TDF which has much higher scores. 

There are 20 Cat 3 climbs, 14 Cat 2 climbs, 10 Cat 1 climbs, 3 Especiale climbs and the one Cima Alberta climb. That is 7 less climbs than last year in total, and, significantly maybe, seven less Cat 1 climbs than last year when they had 17. That means that the 3 Esp climbs and the Cima Alberta this year might have more significance than normal, the 10 Cat 1 climbs will be spread out among a number of guys and the winner this year could win on a lot lower points score than usual. The Cima Alberta on Sierra Nevada therefore could be a big influence on the winner this year, as 20pts are awarded for that. possibly about a third of what is needed to win the competition - Fraile won on 58pts last year. 

The big stages to watch out for are stages 20, 17 and 14 for the Especiale climbs, and stages 3 (x2), 8, 9, 10, 11 (x2), 12,15 (x2) 17,19 and 20 (x2)  for the Cat 1s. Although there are two Cat 1s on only stage 3, the competition will really only get going after stage 8 when the Cat 1s start coming nearly every day, with two on stage 11 - a strong breakaway rider could take both these while winning the stage, but seeing as it's a summit finish it could well be taken by a GC man. But stage 20 could well be the decider of the jersey, with two Cat 1s in quick succession and then the Esp finish on the Angliru. 

The Contenders 

I say it every time - the KOM is an almost impossible competition to predict, unless you have inside information from a team meeting that says rider X is going to be going all out for the jersey. There are just so many variables, so many different ways that it can be won, so many factors like whether the GC men race for stages every day or they let the breakaway riders just fight amongst themselves. 

Last year breakaway riders dominated the top of the KOM results, as we saw the trend of the GC teams not caring about stage wins continue and the breaks had a lot of freedom. It could well be very much more of the same this year.. But with so many summit finishes, and with the Queen stage to Sierra Nevada likely to be won by a GC rider  and the final monster stage on stage 20 also scoring highly with the Esp Climb to the Angliru, we might see the GC men a lot closer this year. 

Alberto Contador, Chris Froome, Vincenzo Nibali, Ilnur Zakarin, Esteban Chaves, Miguel Angel Lopez - all could score lots of mountain points.. but are any of them any value?

Omar Fraile is the 3/1 favourite with Skybet to win the competition for a third time, he's only 2/1 with Bet365. Can he do it? Well he is all about just getting in the breaks over and over again, and I think this year we will see the breaks get a lot of freedom again as Sky just let them at it and Froome keeps his powder dry for the TT. Astana and Bahrain Merida might look to shake things up a bit, but as we've seen in recent years, lots of breaks win in the Vuelta and the GC men just have a dust-up amongst themselves when they get to the finale.

It could well be that we see the winner of the KOM competition take the jersey on the 3rd or 5th stage and hold on to it for the rest of the race as others start to lose interest and he just goes off and picks up points here and there, trying to build up enough of a buffer ahead of the summit finishes later in the race that will be taken more than likely by a GC candidate.

And Omar is not afraid to get stuck in early - that Cat one at the very start of the 3rd stage looks to have his name on it, the second Cat 1 could well go the way of the break too and it may be someone leading the peloton over the top who takes the points in the final Cat. 2 near the finish. In only the second stage of the Giro Fraile jumped out of the pack to take the 8pts on offer on the Cat 2 climb 50kms from the finish and it helped him to 3rd in the KOM competition by the finish.  It could well be that he has 20pts in the bag by the end of the 3rd stage, the jersey on his shoulders and he could be hard to shake from it. So get your money on him early if you want to back him. 

He also took a fine stage victory on stage 11, outsprinting Rui Costa to the win and moving on to joint leader of the KOM with Jan Polanc, but the interesting thing about Fraile and his two KOM wins in the Vuelta is that the best result he has managed in a stage in Spain is 4th.. He doesn't need to win stages when going after the Polka Dots, just needs to win the little races out on the road for the KOM points. I think he has a huge chance again as he will start well and will just build on it from there and he could well be odds-on come stage 4, so might be a good back to lay on Betfair if you're worried a GC man might come late to take it off him. 

What other breakaway type of guys could possibly be in the running for this competition? Well Ladbrokes make Darwin Atapuma their 16/1 second favourite for the same reason, he's the type of guy who will be getting in lots of breaks and is capable of winning a stage or two on this course. He almost won stage 20 at 50/1 for us last year but was just outdone by Pierre Latour in the last kilometre, and he almost won again to Izoard in the TDF this year but was caught and passed by another Frenchman Warren Barguil in the last 2kms. After a pretty anonymous start he did come alive later in the race, getting in to breaks and he picked up enough points to finish in 4th in the KOM in the TDF.

But that is something that worries me, maybe he is targeting a stage later in the race when it gets really hilly and won't care about the KOM at the start of the race, and that could lead to him being out of the running, even if he wins a stage later on. He might be worth an e/w at that price though, but I'm not sure he'll be winning it. 

And what about a cross-race KOM jersey double for Warren Barguil at 12/1 with Bet365 (he's only 7/1 with Laddies)? The way he climbed in the TDF I wouldn't put it past him, he was superb, winning two stages and winning the KOM in a canter by almost double points from Roglic. Sunweb come here with Kelderman as their leader and other decent climbers in Sam Oomen, Kragh Andersen and Hofstede, and it might be that Barguil might be asked to reign it in a little and support Kelderman to try to achieve the best result possible for him. But if he is given freedom, I think he might target specific stages, as is sure to be fatigued after the TDF and I'm not sure he'll be capable of going on the attack day after day to secure enough points to win the KOM here. 

Roman Bardet is only 14/1, but is he really going to be going out on the attack looking for KOM points? Will he be going for GC or stage hunting? Hard to know.. But I would imagine the KOM is third on this list of priorities for him. It's the first time he's ridden more than one GT in a season so it will be interesting to see how he copes with it. He was pretty exhausted at the end of the TDF and just about clung on to his 3rd place after a terrible final TT. It may well be that he targets some stages and looks to see how far up the GC he can finish as a result, but again he will not be out on the road for enough of the race in breaks to rack up enough points I think

Thomas de Gendt is 20/1 and he is similar to Omar Fraile in that we can expect to see him up the road in breaks a lot.. He was in breaks for what seemed like the entire race of the TDF, yet was robbed of the combativity award by a biased, partisan French jury who awarded it to Barguil. Despite all his attacking, the best result he achieved was 5th in stage 19 when in the break that was won by Boasson-Hagen's late attack.

Winner of the KOM in the Tour Down Under in January, his only race win this year was a stage in the Dauphiné in June, and in fact he has only broken in to the top ten once other time, that 5th place in the TDF. He has finished 4th in the KOM in the Vuelta in 2012 and 8th last year, but he was a long way off Fraile. I can see him in many breaks again, and could well be in the top 3 or 4 but may not be quite sharp enough to beat the stronger climbers. 

A name that not a lot of fans might recognise, Aldemar Reyes Ortega sits pretty high up in the betting at just 25/1, but the Colombian riding for the wildcard team Manzana Postobon is a superb climber and could well light up this race in his dazzling pink jersey. Winner of the KOM in the Volta ao Alentejo and Vuelta Ciclista Comundiad de Madrid already this year, and just finished 25th in the Vuelta a Burgos, 3rd best young rider. In the Vuelta a Colombia last year he finished 10th in the GC and won the best young rider at just 21 years of age, finishing 3rd in the uphill TT and 6th and 7th in two of the key stages.

Manzana Postobon will be very active and Reyes is their poster boy, expect to see him on the attack a lot, but I wouldn't be surprised if he maybe targets a few stages and spends the rest racing with the top GC guys to test himself and learn a lot from his first GT. It would be pretty sensational if he was to win the KOM title in his first ever Grand Tour. 

AquaBlue Sport have two guys who could have a lot of fun in this race. As is their style, AquaBlue are sure to be on the attack regularly and Larry Warbasse and Stefan Denifl are two guys who we should see up the road frequently. Warbasse in his new Stars and Stripes kit has had a great season, winning an epic stage in the Tour de Suisse and the American National Road Race.

Warbasse did the Vuelta last year with IAM Cycling and was in that massive break that went on to win the stage to Aubisque, Warbasse finished 14th. But significantly maybe, Warbasse didn't score a single KOM point that year. He is a far different rider this year it seems and will be riding with a wind at his back with that jersey on him, so we could see him in a lot of breaks this year. Denifl was excellent in the Tour of Austria, winning the GC thanks to his 2nd place behind Miguel Angel Lopez on the short stage to Kitzbuheler Horn. We might see him on the attack a lot too, but like Warbasse, I don't think he'll be just good enough to make a challenge for the jersey. 

Alexandre Geniez led this competition from the 3rd stage to the 8th stage last year when riding for FDJ, and picked up some more points along the way from breaks to finish 4th in the competition. I'm sure he'll be keen to give it a go again this year and has been going well this season too with a stage win that went over the Col du Grand Colombier in the Tour de l'Ain a few weeks back, on his way to 3rd in the GC.

He started the Giro with an illness and was hoping he could ride himself in to it, but he only got as far as the 4th stage, so he'll be keen to make amends in his final big race of the season. AG2R will have Pozzovivo and Bardet for the GC, so Geniez should have the freedom to go on the attack, and at 33/1 with Ladbrokes he's worth a small interest I think, he's only 22/1 with Will Hill and Bet365.

I picked Rafal Majka for the Tour and he crashed out of the race, but he didn't look like he had any interest in the KOM up until he left, he seemed to be riding for a GC placing, as he was sitting in 10th overall until his accident. He returned to action in the Tour de Pologne and although he finished 3rd on two stages and 3rd overall, he was only 8th in the KOM competition, as again he rode for GC. What about here? Will the two-time KOM of the TDF ride for GC or the KOM again? I think it will be the GC again to be honest, I think he wants to see how he fares and then maybe go for a stage win later in the race. 

Miguel Angel Lopez and Fabio Aru will be on the attack for Astana, can they get up the road enough to score enough points to do well in the KOM? I am not sure.  Jaime Roson Garcia is in great form for Caja Rural and they are sure to be active too, he might have some backers at 66/1. And then you have Froome, Nibali, Chaves, Adam and Simon Yates, Costa, Contador, Goncalves and a whole load more who could score lots of points along the way, but I think the GC men will share a lot of the points amongst themselves and lots of points will be taken by breakaway riders, so I'm going to overlook them for now, I will revisit this market a week in once we have seen how things lie. For now, I'm definitely having another go on Fraile again this year and adding Geniez e/w and will look to add Atapuma after a few stages if his price goes out to 25/1 or so. 

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Recommendations:

4pts win on Omar Fraile at 3/1 with Skybet

0.5pts each-way on Alexander Geniez at 33/1 with Ladbrokes 

Skybet have a market I'm having a little nibble on too, Froome to win the points and Fraile to win the KOM - 1pt at 20/1

Matchbets

Jaime Roson Garcia to beat Igor Anton - 3pts at 4/6 with 365

Fraile to beat Atapuma, Kruijswijk to beat Majka and Froome to beat Aru - 3pts at 2/1 with 365

De la Cruz to beat Bennett - 2pts at 8/11 with 365