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Published on Friday, 25 August 2017 00:20

Vuelta Stage 7

Llíria to Cuenca

Fri 25th August, 207kms 

The longest stage of the Vuelta, but it's still only a paltry 207kms, compared to some of the many 200km plus stages we had to endure during this year's TDF. 

It should be a spectacular finish in the old and new towns of Cuenca - we just have to endure about 4 and a half hours, or about 160kms of what looks like pretty boring racing until they reach Cuenca, but the last 15kms or so should be pretty spectacular. The town of Cuenca is stunning, with houses overhanging the roads and barely an inch of space at the sides of the roads, with walls either side of narrow passages. And the road surface as they run through the old town is cobbled to add to the difficulty, it should be a brilliant finish to the stage and we should see some spectacular racing up and down the hill. 

Stage 6 Review

Well what a crazy stage we had today, where to even start - we got a massive break, which included Luis Leon, Jungels, Visconti and quite a few fancied runners, including Toms Skujins for us.. But he had to wait for Villella and tow him up to the front group and he said it took a lot out of him. With Villela up front he was put to work to help him stretch his lead in the competition to 26 points from Atapuma. And it was just chaos after that. Sky kept the gap tight, the break gradually started to break up and Contador was outstanding as he blew the race to pieces on the Cat 2 climb. 

De La Cruz couldn't stay with them and lost time, but not too much in the end, pulling his loss back to just 17" by the finish. Tejay had a nightmare, crashing inexplicably on the descent off the Garbi, puncturing, then crashing again as he tried to get back through the cars. Marczynski took the stage in the end from a three-up sprint with Enric Mas and Poljanski and the in-play favourite for most of the stage, Luis Leon Sanchez could only finish 4th ahead of Jan Poland. 

The peloton were not far behind, Warren Barguil outsprinting Gio Vsiconti. So a stage that should have been relatively calm was anything but and there were riders all over the road. Froome was able to handle Contador's attacks pretty well, but if Contador carries on attacking like this it could be an excellent race. 

The Route

Not a lot to say about this one, it's a fairly non-descript stage that rolls its way north-west from Llíria to Cuenca, climbing steadily from the start and taking in two easy Cat 3 climbs along the way. The second Cat 3 takes them up to over 1000m and they more or less stay at that elevation all the way to the finish. 

It literally will be a snoozefest for about 4 1/2 hours, and I'm not too upset I'll be in a car ferry heading to Ireland with no signal! But just as I start to get signal back, around 4:15, the stage should get a lot more interesting. With 16kms to go there is the intermediate sprint, so the peloton will probably have caught the break by then so that the sprinters can fight it out for the points, or possibly the GC men for bonus seconds.

And just 3.7kms later they start on the little hill which could decide the outcome of the stage. The Cat 3 Alto del Castillo is just 2kms at an average of 7.2%, but it winds its way through the ancient streets of Cuenca, with it's incredibly tight streets and houses vertically rising up at each side of the road, with almost no space whatsoever between road and a solid wall. (below)

The climb starts at the centre of the town and winds its way through the tiny streets all the way up to the castle at the top. There are some steep sections in it and flatter sections, and the hill actually carries on climbing for about another 4kms after the KOM. The significant thing about the climb though is that it is on ancient stone paving, which are like cobbles and will break up the peloton as they struggle to find the smoothest line and get bounced around. They also have to go through some narrow arches and castle gateways, pinching up the peloton and causing problems (below).

There is a steep descent for about 3kms and then it descends at a slightly easier pace as they double back on themselves almost and head back down the hill towards the finish, thankfully on much a much better road. The last 5kms have a few twisty bends and narrow sections, but it should be really fast. With 1km to go they take a sharp left and it's pretty much straight all the way to the finish from there, with no roundabouts or bends to worry about, the finish is actually on a very wide and straight boulevard that rises ever so gently to the line.  

Contenders and Favourites

This is going to be a spectacular finish, and when I had started writing this a few days ago I had started by saying I can't see anything else other than a GC battle to be honest. I think the break will be kept on a tight leash of maybe less than 5 minutes and they'll reduce that down to about 3 mins with about 100kms to go after the two climbs are done with. I think the GC teams will want to pull back the break before the sprint with 16kms to go and there will be a hell of a charge for the next few kilometres as the GC teams try to get in to the final climb at the front, protecting their men. It will be chaos and carnage as they enter the old town, with the road narrowing down to barely a car width in places and the road kicking up for 2kms.

But then the bookies came out with Trentin as the favourite and it confused me a little.. I am not sure he will be able to hang in there if the GC men go full blast up this hill, which I think they will... I'll come back to the sprinters later on, as I had already started writing this whole preview ignoring the sprinters to start with... 

So if it's a GC type battle, who should we be looking for? Well it will be a furious battle in to the town and that's probably a battle that Team Sky will win. They will want to get Froome to the front of the pack for the start of the climb, and at the front of the peloton out of trouble as they enter the narrow roads. So Froome will be right at the front, and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him really attack this hill as the race is strung out behind him with riders caught up in the traffic and struggling to deal with the gradients and cobbled surface.

If he can power up the climb, not many will be able to stay with him and he could start the descent back to town with a 10" lead or more. And if he has that sort of gap it will be hard to peg him back on the descent, especially if he has a few guys for company. But can he hold off the chasers for 5kms, and especially the last kilometre along the long straight finish? I'm not sure, his gap will be small, maybe not enough.

Esteban Chaves is sure to be up there too, that is, as long as he can get him self in to a good enough position hitting the steepest parts. He looks to be one of the strongest riders along with Froome at the moment so he is sure to be pretty close to him and ready to chase him up the hill. But he won't get away on his own and he won't win a sprint, so I won't be backing him. 

Vincenzo Nibali did ok today too, he struggled a little bit on the really steep parts, but that is not really a surprise, but he got back on pretty well with Chaves and the others in the small group that chased Contador. He will like this gradient a bit better, it was quite steep for him today, these gradients are a bit more comfortable for him and we may even see him attacking on the climb to try to get a gap and descend to victory. That will be very hard though, to stay away from these chasers, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him give it a go. 

Alberto Contador was superb today, attacking relentlessly and spending a long portion of the climb at the front, pushing. He definitely looks to be feeling at his best and I think we will see him attack again and again until he has no energy left to give in this race. But he went hard today, he might just look to follow wheels tomorrow and save energy for the bigger challenges ahead, Froome will not let him go tomorrow. 

Michael Woods was on the premises again today when the big attacks went down, he was dropped a little bit when the big attacks came but got back on and was comfortable for the rest of the stage with the leaders. If there is another attack by the likes of Froome, Chaves and Contador, expect Woods to feature also. 

Nicholas Roche is going really well too and will like this finish but I think it will be hard for him to win a GC battle, and Tejay Van Garderen crashed twice today, he might be a bit stiff, sore and pissed off tomorrow. Fabio Aru struggled a little too again today with the steep parts, hard to see him skipping away either. 

Adam Yates,  Simon Yates, Wilko Kelderman, Steven Kruijswijk, Ilnur Zakarin, Warren Barguil, Domenico Pozzovivo, Romain Bardet.. they should all be near the front, and if it came to a sprint between all of these guys I'd fancy Barguil, he won the sprint of the GC men today.

Julian Alaphilippe has had two strange days - yesterday he was favourite and failed miserably, failing to go with the winning moves. Today they had also made him like second favourite or something stupid like that, he didn't even get in the break and then he was dropped on the climb, finishing over 23 minutes down.. Yet, here he is again as 2nd favourite at 8/1.. I said he was a stupid price today after the hard day he had Wednesday, I think he is a stupid price again for tomorrow given how he struggled today. Watch him go out and win this tomorrow now.. :-)

But getting back to the sprinters then - Trentin - can he hang in there? I didn't think so.. but the only thing that might save him is that although there will be attacks up front he may not be able to stick with, the hill is only 2kms long after all, and the peloton could be strung out in one long line.. If QS can get him near the front starting the climb, he has room to slip back to about 40th-50th place, possilbly aided by the likes of Jungels, Alaphilippe, Mas, Terpstra and Lampaert. And there is an 8km descent back to the finish where they could team time trial him back to the front and in to contention. It is going to be touch and go as to whether he makes it back in or not, but I'm not prepared to risk it at just 3/1. 

JJ Lobato has a better chance of staying in there I think, well at least the Lobato of old who has won on the uphill sprint in Stirling in the TDU or who finished 4th in Milan San Remo.. He's not at that level at the moment you'd think, but aided by George Bennett and Steven Kruijswijk he might be able to stay close enough to the leaders over the top to be part of the group that fights out the finish. And if he is, he has a big chance of winning, if he can time the sprint on the boulevard right this time. 

Sacha Modolo has the ability to stick in with the tail end of the GC group too I think and will be well suited to the chaos and hustle and bustle of this finish. He'll have Mohoric, Costa, Polanc and Niemiec to try to guide him up the hill and I actually fancy him more than the two above to stay in there and possibly sprint to victory. And he's 16/1 too with Will Hill which is a tempting e/w crack. 

Soren Kragh Andersen, Jens Debuscherre, Edward Theuns and Tom Van Asbroeck might be able to hang in there over what amounts to not much more than a berg of the Tour of Flanders or Amstel Gold, but I'm not interested in any of them at those prices. One completely from left-field though that I am tempted by at a big price is Jack Haig - he has been riding superbly and sits in 15th place in the GC, after a fine 7th place today. He could well escape with a few of the GC guys and get to the finish in a small group and he might do ok in a sprint finish. At 400/1 with PP, why not!

So yet again it's another impossible stage to call - I am plumping for a peloton finish though rather than a breakaway, and it all depends on how hard they race it in to town. If the GC men really go for it, full gas up that 2kms, then they will blow it to pieces and there will be bodies everywhere. Barguil, Nibali and maybe even Roche from the GC guys could go close, but I'm going to have a go with Modolo tomorrow, I think he might be able to hang in there, I can't say that with much confidence about any of the other sprinter guys, although the QS chase should be interesting!

We could have a scenario where the lead group has only about 10" hitting that last kilometre and they are in full flight, bu the lead group plays a bit of cat and mouse and gets caught out, and Trentin wins! But that might be something to try to cover in play. Not a day to go big again tomorrow, like today.. 

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Sacha Modolo at 16/1 with Will Hill 

0.1pts each-way on Jack Haig at 400/1 with PP

Matchbets

Sacha Modolo to beat Theuns - 2.5pts at 11/8 with Will Hill 

Barguil to beat Kelderman and SK Andersen to beat Oss - 2pts on the double at 1.6/1 with 365

Barguil to beat Kelderman and Haig to beat Lopez - 2pts at 7/4 with Will Hill