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Published on Tuesday, 29 August 2017 22:50

Vuelta Stage 11

Lorca to Calar Alto

Wed Aug 30th, 187.5kms 

An interesting profile which sees them climbing from the flag-drop, and although it's an uncategorised little hill that averages only about 2%, it does drag on for nearly 10kms, so will serve as a good launching pad for the break of the day. 

After they go over the top of that hill it's a short descent down to the coast to Aguilas, but when they head back inland after 75kms it starts to get interesting as the road starts to climb, culminating in the two Cat 1 climbs in the last 44kms and a finish at the Astronomical Observatory of Calar Alto. 

The observatory at Calar Alto houses the largest telescope in Europe, and sits at an altitude of 2168m. The Telefique has seen Vuelta action in the past, hosting a stage finish in 2009 which saw the motorbike Ryder power his way to victory. The finish at Calar Alto has also seen stage finishes, with Roberto Heras winning here in 2004 and Igor Anton in 2006. Heras may be long retired, but the 34-year old Igor Anton is still around and riding the Vuelta for Dimension Data.. What chances of a repeat victory? He says he's feeling really good at the moment. 

Stage 10 Review

So we came close with JJ Rojas, unfortunately the one day that he decides to do something of note, Matteo Trentin happened to be with him. So we got 2nd at 40/1, but the e/w on 0.25pts didn't pay much. Annoying that we pick the 2nd on the day and lose money, didn't put enough of a stake against him, but a win would have been a lot nicer. But so much for the two favourites, Alaphilippe and Sanchez.. Alaphilippe didn't even get in the break, but Sanchez did, but again was careless/stupid/not good enough to go with the moves on the climb, which is extraordinary considering it was two sprinters who managed to drop him. That's incredible considering how he was favourite in running for a long while. Annoying that the bigger bet we had was on the mark with him getting in the break, but he couldn't even place. 

There was a crazy finish to the stage down the hill with gaps all over the place for a while, and in the confusion Nicholas Roche skipped away and managed to pull back 29" on Froome to move up to joint second with Chaves. It was good from Trentin's point of view though for the points jersey, he took a maximum 28pts on the day to move 23pts clear of Froome and has dropped down to evens favourite with Froome again from 9/2 yesterday. It looks like barring accident we'll have the 1-2 in the Points competition, which is nice. Fingers crossed they make it to Madrid. 

The Route

Straight from the start of the stage the strong breakaway men will have a chance to get clear as the road climbs for around 9kms out of Lorca. After a quick descent down to the coast at Aguilas they then skirt along the coast as far as Mojacar after 70kms and turn inland. The road starts climbing soon after and they climb gently for the next 35kms or so, passing through the intermediate sprint point after 103kms. 

The road starts climbing again after 120kms, gently at first for around 20kms, but then with 144kms gone they start on the Cat 1 Alto de Telefique and the road suddenly kicks up sharply. The Telefique is tough - 13kms at 7.3%, but it's a pretty steady gradient the whole way up, with little bits that average around 10-11%. Then it's a 12 minute descent to Bacares, it's fast, but not too steep. 

The final climb is another Cat 1 climb, up to the Observatorio Astronomico de Calar Alto, and it's pretty hard too, coming in at over 15kms long, at an average of 5.9%, but the first 7kms are the steepest, averaging over 8.3% and hitting 11-12% gradients in the first 2kms. From km 7 to 13 it flattens out a little to average around 2%, but then kicks up again to 5% for kilometre and then 8.7% for a kilometre before a flattish run to the finish that averages 2.2%.    

Contenders and Favourites

This is a really hard one to call again - can the break make it all the way? The start of the stage is certainly designed to help a break form, the climb for the first 9kms or so will help a strong break get away and we could see a group of 15+ go, as I think a lot of guys will want to be in the break. Once over that first little climb they then descend and have about 65kms of flatish roads in order to build up a big lead, especially if Sky decide to down tools and just ride a steady tempo. Who else will take up the chase? Well Cannondale maybe, but they might have someone in the break, I'll come back to that later.. 

I think that Quickstep will possibly send Trentin up the road again to pick up those easy points after 103kms, he may well drop off shortly after and roll home in his own time. Some of the other guys who are near the top of the points competition might also go in the break as quite a few near the top are break-away guys who might try to go again - Pawel Poljanski, Jan Polanc, Matej Mohoric and Alexey Lutsenko. But to be honest I don't think any of them are really bothered about it, they are just going to be trying to win a stage! So Trentin might be left to it again. He won't be winning tomorrow though! 

It gets serious though after around 130kms when the road starts to rise as it continues to head inland, and there are 16kms of a warm-up of around 2.6% average gradient before they hit the first Cat 1 climb which starts with 43kms to go. The 13kms of the Telefique is going to sort the men from the boys though, it's one of the longest they've faced so far at 13kms, and is tough at 7.6% average. I think we'll see an immediate reduction in the break's make-up as soon as they hit this climb, the stronger, lighter guys will pull away from the weaker guys. Same goes for the peloton actually, the pace will up and the group will reduce in size dramatically. 

And then they have the final climb to tackle too - it's a climb of three parts - steep for 7kms at around 8.3%, easier for 6kms and then steep again for 2kms before an easier run to the line. We should see those who want to win the stage make their move in the steeper first 7kms, shaking off the hangers-on, and kick for home. If they can hold off any resurges from them in the easier parts then they should take the stage. 

So let's take a look at who can win this then - I'm going to start with Rafal Majka I think, he had a day off today, but this is more like his sort of climb and breakaway stage. I started writing this preview over the weekend and had Majka in mind for it all along, but it's very disappointing to see him at just 9/2 tonight. But I guess every odds compiler (or should I say Bet365's, as every other guy just copies and pastes) and every punter wants to be on him for tomorrow.

He was very impressive on Sunday but found Alaphilippe too good for him in a sprint finish. I think Alaphilippe won't be near him tomorrow if he steps on the gas on the first 7kms of the final climb, so that opponent is out of the way. And not only was he good, he said himself he wasn't 100% yet, but getting better all the time. I think he will get in the break tomorrow and has to be a strong favourite to win it. 

Chris Froome is second favourite at just 13/2 and if he rides like he did on Sunday then he has a massive chance again of taking the stage. But that will mean they will have to catch the break, and it will be 50/50 I think that they will do that. And also, I am not sure the climb is hard enough this time for Froome to shake off a lot of his opposition and the likes of Chaves, Woods or Kelderman could get closer this time to him. 

Romain Bardet was very short, around 10/1 for yesterday's stage, but I never thought he was suited to the stage, but tomorrow's stage looks a bit more like his type of stage. He is very short again at just 8/1 but he is over 21 minutes down now so should be able to go in a break with ease, should he choose to do so.. But I'm not sure he's able to, I think TDF fatigue has hit him hard and he is struggling. He tried attacking Sunday, he got a bit of a gap, but really went nowehere, then went out the back door and lost 1'17" by the finish. 

Alberto Contador is 14/1, he seemed to be going well up until Sunday, but couldn't hold the wheel of Froome when he went and lost 12" to Froome at the finish, slipping back while Chaves and Woods went forward. He should be closer to Froome this time I think but he won't outsprint several others and he won't get away from the Skytrain either. 

Vincenzo Nibali is starting to look better and better to me and he will like this finish if it does come back to a GC contenders finish. That 10% kick with 2-3kms to go will see him track Froome or Chaves and he'd have a good kick for that last kilometre at 3%. Esteban Chaves likewise will be close too, but we saw that he was unable to catch Froome Sunday, despite coming to within about a bikelength of him at one stage. I don't think he has the kick to win it though. 

Ilnur Zakarin will be out to make amends after struggling on the descent to the finish today, this finish would suit him too I think and his climbing seems to be getting better too as we saw with his 5th place on Sunday, ahead of a lot of his rivals. Michael Woods needs to be a bit more patient again, like he was on Sunday, he got carried away on Saturday and blew his chances of a good result. David de la Cruz could also like this finish, that kick at 2-3% will suit him if he can be close enough for the sprint, and he's a decent price at 80/1 with 365

Darwin Atapuma is very short at just 14/1 - yes, he might get in the break and would do very well on a climb like this, but it's getting in the break will be the problem... It should be a fast and furious opening to the stage again, and today we saw that he was actually dropped in a 3rd group at the start as he wasn't able to handle the furious opening pace. It could be the same tomorrow, and also, he seems to always find someone too good for him!

Enric Mas and Marc Soler are way too short, Alessandro de Marchi and Luis Leon showed today that they are up for it but just didn't have the legs, they might try again tomorrow but I'm not going to be on them. Richard Carapaz for Movistar interests me a little bit, they had Soler and Rojas up the road today, maybe they'll send Carapaz up the road tomorrow, he rolled home almost last today with Pedrero his team-mate, they might be plotting something for tomorrow - he's 66/1. Maxime Monfort, Alexander Geniez and Serge Pauwels could also be break men. 

Until I see Fraile actually go in a break and take some mountain points I'm not going to touch him again. Igor Anton has been going ok and is keen to get up the road apparently, and he has won on this climb before, back in 2006.. OK, it's 11 years ago and he's not the same rider he was back then, but he might be one that gets in the break and if the opposition aren't great he might just go all the way at 100/1. Rui Costa could like this stage too, and Jaime Roson and Dani Moreno will possibly fancy this one too, but Roson was up the road today, although it wasn't a brutally hard day by some comparisons and could go again. 

It is a very hard call to make whether the break makes it or not, and that's why GC men and breakaway men are intermingled in a mess of odds. I like Majka though, hopefully he won't let down a legion of backers probably and at least he gets in the break. It's in his hands from then on at least. I've scattered a few for the break and a few for a GC finish just in case, but not a day to go wild on, it's a real conundrum. Maybe look to play in-play as well when you see how it's working out. 

Recommendations -

2pts win on Rafal Majka at 9/2 with various

0.5pts each-way on Vincenzo Nibali at 33/1 with 365

0.3pts each-way on David de la Cruz at 80/1 with 365

0.2pts each-way on Igor Anton at 100/1 with 365

0.25pts each-way on Richard Carapaz at 66/1 with PP

Matchbets

Majka to beat Bardet - 3.3pts at 8/11 with 365

Add Froome to beat Chaves and Nibali to beat Aru to make it a treble at 5/4 - 2pts win with Will Hill.

Nibali to beat Contador - 2pts at 11/8 with Will Hill

Nibali to beat Aru - 6pts at 1/2 with Will Hill