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Published on Friday, 01 September 2017 23:04

Vuelta Stage 14

Écija to Sierra De La Pandera

Sat 3rd Sept, 196kms 

A stage that is climbing right from the flag-drop and climbs all day, from a height of 120m at the start to 1830m at the finish, getting steeper as they go, culminating in the Escpeciale finish on top of the Alto Sierra De La Pandera. 

Along the way they pass over the climb of Valdepenas de Jaen, a climb that has been used in the past in the Vuelta as a stage finish, won in 2014 by Dani Moreno and in 2011 by Joaquim Rodriguez. It's a nasty little climb that hits slopes in the 10-11% but as high as 20-30% in places. With only 22kms to go from the top of it, expect to see some explosive attacks from the pack and a very high pace from the GC teams. A strong break will probably need 4 minutes or more coming to the VDJ as that lead will evaporate quickly on the steep slopes with tired legs. 

This is the fifth time that the race has finished on the Sierra De La Pandera, the last time was back in 2009 when Damiano Cunego took a brilliant solo victory over Jacob Fuglsang, with Samuel Sanchez in 3rd. But what was remarkable about that stage was just how broken up the race was - there were riders all over the place, mostly coming in on their own, it was every man for himself and there were a lot of broken men that evening. It could well be the same tomorrow evening and I think we could see some real casualties at the end of this stage. You can see what I'm talking about in the result from PCS here and in the funky video below.. Watch out for Valverde's surge from about 4 mins onwards... :-) 

Stage 13 Review

Another masterclass form QuickStep, another masterclass from Trentin, another good winner for us. Shame that AquaBlue and Blythe disappeared in the last few kilometres, they were well positioned until the road tilted upwards. It sucked a bit of our profit out, but still we finished 4pts ahead, but we were unlucky with the treble as the other two easily won. Was interesting to see all the GC candidates sprinting at the finish, Froome wants that points jersey too it seems!! Nothing else to report really, except for the disappointing sight of Omar Fraile puking in the cavalcade and abandoning shortly afterwards, it's been a total disaster for him and Dimension Data who are down to 3 riders.

The Route

A wedge-shaped route that is rising upwards from the very start, but getting steeper and harder as the day progresses. Starting out at Écija they head south-east for 29kms to Herrera, but from then on it is mostly north-east they are heading. There is the Cat 3 Puerto el Mojón which starts after 76.6kms and is an average of 3.8% for 8.8kms. From there the road pitches and rolls for 60kms, passing through the intermediate sprint after 130kms, most likely won by the break and on to the Cat 2 Alto Valdepenas de Jaen which they start after 144.6kms.

The Valdepenas de Jaen averages 4.9% for 8.5kms but that doesn't really portray just how difficult the last part is as they pass through the town, it's 6.4% for the last 5kms and a section in the last 3kms hits 8% average with parts hitting 20 and even up to 30%. But there is still 22kms still to go from the top of it so they won't be racing up it like they did when it was a summit finish, but you can expect Sky and the other GC teams to be putting the hurt on here to strip the lead group down ahead of the final climb. 

Five minutes of descending (6kms) will take them to the bottom of the final climb to Sierra De La Pandera, and this too is a pretty difficult climb, being an Especiale climb that averages 7.2% for 12kms. But the average is closer to 7.9% for the climb, as the hill tops out with 1km to go, descends for 500m, then kicks up to the line for the last 500m at 8%. Along the way there are several sections in the 10%+ bracket, with the section from kilometre 7-11 actually averaging 10.5%. This is where the big moves will be made, inside the last 5kms, and it might be that someone who has hung in there on the wheels over the top might have something in reserve for the final 500m sprint to the line. 

Contenders and Favourites

As you can see in the video above, this truly is a brutal finish and it's going to be only a handful of guys I think from the GC group that can win this stage. But, that is, if the GC group win the stage.. Can the breakers hold on?

I think the break has a good chance today, depending on the make-up of it. Sky will not want to chase all day ahead of that brutal finish, they will want to keep something in reserve to look after Froome and they will be happy for the break to mop up the bonus seconds along the way. But this is such a terribly hard finish to the stage, you can count an awful lot of potential breakaway hopefuls out, you have to be a proper decent climber to win on this climb.. 

Chris Froome is the obvious pick if this is a GC finish, he will be pulled up most of the climb by the likes of Moscon, Puccio, Nieve and Poels until he's ready to take off spinning like fury again. He will be able to pace himself nicely on a long climb like this while others will be jumping all over the place and wearing themselves out. But I think he needs to be clear going over the top with 1km to go, as he could be caught and passed in the last 500m uphill sprint by others.. He's just 7/2 in places but 11/2 with 365 if you fancy him.

His biggest danger may well be someone like Miguel Angel Lopez who seems to be getting stronger as this race goes on and should be getting the full support of the Astana team along with Aru. In fact, MAL looks to be going better than Aru at the moment and could well pass him out by the end of this race.. I haven't given up hope yet of a top 3 finish for him! He will like this long climb and will come in to his own the higher it goes, and if he can repeat what he did on the finish to Calar Alto he could well attack away while Froome watches Contador and the rest. I like him at 11/2 with 365 also and maybe you'll get bigger when some of the others open.. 

Alberto Contador's attack on Thursday on that Cat 2 climb showed us that the legs are good - he climbed for 14mins at 6.3wkg when attacking the front of the peloton, Moscon and Poels couldn't catch him when he went. He should also like this climb, but I fear that he will attack a few times, burn himself out and then when the late attacks come he gets tailed off like on Calar Alta. 

Vincenzo Nibali could also start to come in to his own on a long climb like this, he too was up there sprinting today and finished 6th ahead of Froome. He just needs to hang in there with the likes of MAL and Froome and could fight for the stage honours also on a finish like this. Fabio Aru did not do an altitude training camp before this Vuelta, the first time he has not done this before a GT and it looks like it is affecting him, as he has not been his usual self in the climbs. I actually think he's going to go backwards from here until the end of the race and I can't see him finishing in the top 3 tomorrow, he could be one of those to lose lots of time. 

Of the other GC men, I think Michael Woods is really untested on such a brutal, long climb and I can't back him with confidence and Esteban Chaves had a terrible day in the cold and rain of two days ago, losing over 2 mins to Lopez. If he climbs like that here, he could lose 5 minutes. Surely he will go better and maybe it was just an off day, but you can't trust him after that ride. The weather might have affected Chaves, but it doesn't look like it will rain tomorrow, but it won't be very hot, around 20 degrees.

Wilko Kelderman seems to be riding really well and seems to be getting stronger as the race goes on too, he took a fine 4th two days ago on that climb to Calar Alto. He has Sam Oomen to help him on the climb, a fine deputy to have, and if he rides like he did two days ago he could well trouble the podium too. 

So that is if the break is caught, and the GC men fight out the stage - and I give that outcome about a 70% chance of happening, meaning a 30% chance the break makes it. And again, I think the list of possible winners from a break is quite limited too. Romain Bardet and Rafal Majka are the obvious picks according to the bookies, with they both being very short in the betting at 6/1. Romain Bardet at least went on the attack a few days ago, but the break wasn't strong enough and they were caught very early on in the final stages.

I'm sure he'll try again, seeing as he has no GC ambitions left, but will the break be stronger this time to help him make it? I think the break has to be quite strong, with a number of rouleurs willing to just power along on the lower slopes of the stage. And the final climb should be ok for him too, but if he is feeling the effects of a hard TDF, like it looks like he has been, then he might well die on the unforgiving slopes of the Sierra Pandera.  

And Rafal Majka? He's been a short price for so many stages now, has been expected to go on the attack, and the one day he had a brilliant chance of winning a stage he was beaten by Alaphilippe. Is he really 100% fit yet? I think if he was he'd have finished closer than 26 mins down on Calar Alto. Yes, there's taking it easy and saving your legs, and there's also riding well enough to not lose 26 mins. He was the hot favourite that day, didn't even get in the break. Can you trust him to go again tomorrow? He's just 6/1, maybe if you think he wins, it might even be worth waiting for the break makeup and then back him, if you think he's the best climber in the group - you might still get 3/1, but at least you know he's in the break anyway. 

I think we'll also see Darwin Atapuma on the attack, he'll love a stage like this with climbing getting steeper and harder as the stage goes on, culminating in a long, hard, Colombians type climb.. He has a habit of finding 1 or 2 too good for him when he does get in a good winning position, but maybe this time is different? He seems to be riding ok, and he is one break guy I want to have onside I think, if the break makes it, he'll probably be top 3 at 15/1 with Will Hill. 

Forget Ilnur Zakarin, Luis Leon, Steven Kruijswijk, Rui Costa, the Yates brothers and Julian Alaphilippe I think for this one, I think it is too hard for them, but one other guy I want to keep onside is Richard Carapaz. The Ecuadaorian was flying on Calar Alto, coming home in 13th, just 50" behind the likes of Contador and Zakarin. He finished 3rd in a really tough stage of the Route du Sud this year that went over the Tourmalet and finished at over 1800m, on a final climb that was over 25kms long from the bottom of the hill. He also has a number of other decent finishes on tough races this year, and he could be one to infiltrate the attack, possibly with another Movistar rider as they seek to wrap up the Team Classification, and he'd have a good chance from there. 

Miguel Angel Maté has said that he is going to try to get in the break tomorrow as he is a local, and he's been riding ok too, sitting in just 33rd position overall now. But it has been over 6 years since Maté last won a race, and given the opposition he will have in the break I've named some of above, I can't see him winning here either. 

So it will be a close-run thing I think between break and the GC men, it all might depend on how much Astana, Trek and Sky think they want the stage win, and how hard they are prepared to work with a brutaly hard day on Sunday to Sierra Nevada. But I think if Sky think they are going well enough they will try to crush everyone over these two stages and put the race to bed, if Froome is up for it.

I'm going to list a few break guys, but not many, as I think the GC men have a slightly better chance of catching them than the break making it. I also like the look of Lopez to pull of a double win, he looked the liveliest of all the GC men on Calar Alto, I think he is getting stronger as this race goes on and this climb should suit him well and he would well ride away from Froome on that finish again.  

Recommendations -

2pts win on Miguel Angel Lopez at 6/1 with Skybet

0.3pts each-way on Richard Carapaz at 28/1 with 365

0.5pts each-way on Darwin Atapuma at 15/1 with Will Hill

Watch to maybe back Rafal Majka and Nibali in play depending on how it's panning out. 

Matchbets

Lopez to beat Contador and DLC to beat Nieve - 4pts at 5/4 with Will Hill

Add Caruso to beat Dennis and Kelderman to beat Zakarin to make it a 4.74/1 four-fold with Bet365 - 2pts on that. 

Daniel Moreno to beat Igor Anton - 2pts at 5/4 with Will Hill

Richard Carapaz to beat Pelle Bilbao - 2pts at 11/10 with 365