Details

Published on Monday, 04 September 2017 22:06

Vuelta Stage 17

Villadiego to Los Machucos

Wed 6th Sept, 180.5km 

Another interesting looking stage with a double sting in the tail. A relatively flat and calm open gives way to what should be a crazy last 80kms or so where they hit a Cat two and then a Cat 1 and Especiale climb in the last 26kms. 

This is going to be a brutally hard finish to the stage and although it's not going to get the title of Queen stage, it will be right up there in terms of significance in deciding the placings in this Vuelta I believe. If you are struggling on the Puerto de Alisas then you are going to be in big trouble on the final climb to Los Machucos. There could be big time losses by some today on those 25% slopes, if you get detached at the bottom in the opening 2kms you may not get back again and could lose a minute or more by the finish. 

And that final climb has even more of s surprise up it's sleeve for those who have not reconned the route, as the steepest parts weave up through a forest on a very narrow road and on a terrible concrete surface that has ridges carved in to it to filter rainwater off. The result is a really hard ascent and there will be lots of pain faces and guys struggling up this climb. 

Stage 16 Review 

Very, very impressive out of Froome, Nibali and Kelderman, not so impressive from Lampaerts. Lampaerts was getting the excuses in early apparently, saying beforehand that he thought the course was too hilly for him.. And then the moron misses his time at the start gate and rolled up and through it without stopping.. Don't know how much time it cost him, but his head clearly wasn't in it. And Ludviggson was on a good day, leading until all the GC men came charging through. Big surprise as well though from Woods to finish 37th in that TT, don't think anyone saw that coming. Sorry guys, was a shit day, I hope some of you managed to make some money backing Froome when I tweeted he was out yesterday though. 

The Route

They set out from Villadiego and head north-east for 30kms before turning and heading due north for more or less 70kms, dropping down the valley to Valdenoceda. For the next 38kms it rolls and climbs gently to the 99km mark where they start on the first major obstacle of the day, the Cat 2 climb to Portillo de Lunada, which averages 5.8% for 8.3kms. This should strip the field down, but unless someone is on a really bad day, you wouldn't expect the GC men to have any problems. 

A long 38km descent takes them almost down to the coast where they take in the intermediate sprint at Solares after 145.2kms where they now turn back on themselves almost and start heading back up the hill for the tough last 28kms. First up is the Cat 1 Puerto de Alisas and this one is a pretty steady 6% gradient for 10kms.. Not much to worry about.

11kms of a descent later though and they start the climb to the finish and this one is a different kettle of fish altogether. The Altos de Los Muchacos is officially just 7.2kms long at 8.7%, but that belittles the brutality of parts of this climb. The official maximum gradient given for the climb is 26%, but there are other parts hit 12, 15, 17 and even up to 25%. The opening 2kms average 12.5% and has the ramps that hit 17.5%, 25% and 26% - but there is a flat section for about 1km, so actually the climbing parts averages well over 20%!

But it's not just the steepness of the climb - it's the road surface as well - it is grooved concrete, making it a very difficult surface to ride on (right). It then flattens out for a kilometre before starting the second part of the climb, which is a steadier 3.3kms at 12.1%. The road is exposed and can be windy as they wind up the hill, it makes for a spectacular climb as you can see riders scattered up and down the hill. 

It tops out with 1.3kms to go, there's a short 500m little descent and then it's on to the last 500m which is pretty much straight to the line and almost flat, just weaves a little to the finish line. 

Contenders and Favourites

Unless the break of the day wins it, it's hard to see past Miguel Angel Lopez again. Our hero from Sunday is clearly the best climber in the race and clearly has the balls and the initiative and the ability to attack and win. And this finish should suit him perfectly - his light frame and explosive power should see him pull away from these other more sluggish guys.. No one has been able to match his accelerations so far and I can't really see that changing Wednesday.

And you know, I wouldn't even be surprised to see him attack on the Puerto de Alisas, a full 25kms or so from the finish like he did on Sierra Nevada, he could still realistically make podium in this race, especially with the Angliru still to come and possibly even the finish on stage 18 he might be able to steal a few seconds. It may be though that he is a little bit more patient this time and wait for the final climb, it depends on what Sierra Nevada took out of him I goess and whether he went too hard in the ITT in trying to move up.

It also depends on where the break are of course, if they have got too far ahead we could have a similar situation to Saturday when he attacks, leaves everyone behind, but because there is someone just too far ahead he doesn't get the stage win. Let's hope Astana keep working like they have been doing for him in recent days, they have been excellent and he has delivered for them for all their hard work. 

Chris Froome will be interesting on this climb, the worst of it comes in the first 2kms, but then eases off to 'just' 12% or so.. will he get dropped on the steep parts only to work his way back in to contention and possibly ride past those who exerted too much energy earlier on? (I'm looking at you Nibali and Contador!!) Froome should have Nieve and Poels with him hitting the Las Machucos climb and they should help him shut down the gaps as much as possible, if gaps have appeared.

He was outstanding in the TT today, pulling off an awesome negative split, starting out 14" behind Kelderman at the first split, but powering home to victory - and that was with him saying beforehand that he wasn't even going to go full gas, as he felt that if you left it all out on the road today you'd pay for it tomorrow. But the finish doesn't suit him perfectly though I think, the descent and flat run to the line might see other guys outsprint him. That is, if he hasn't just ridden away from all of them on the 12% sections already. 

Two of those who could out-do him at the finish are Wilko Kelderman and Ilnur Zakarin as they seem to be emerging as two of the strongest late in this race. Zakarin managed to get away in the closing stages on Sierra Nevada, which was no mean feat considering the talent that was left in the front group, he could attack late on again in his effort to take 3rd place in the GC. 

Wilko Kelderman reacted too late for me on Sierra Nevada, he should have seen the danger when Zakarin attaked his 3rd place, but he did finish very strongly to outsprint Chaves and Froome, he even gained two seconds on them as he chased down Zakarin. He would be one to watch if it did come to a sprint finish amongst an elite group on that flat run-in though, and he may even land a place from the elite group if Lopez has already sprinted to victory. They both need to watch out that they are not left behind on the really steep sections though, and stay in contact. Kelderman did an excellent time trial and went odds on at one point to take it, but faded badly in the second half, I hope that isn't a sign that he went too hard and will pay for it tomorrow. 

Esteban Chaves rode better on the longer climb of Sierra Nevada, even attacking for a while. He didn't look great in some of the earlier climbs in this race but came alive when we went over 2,000m. Although this is an ESP climb, it only climbs to 880m, and the highest point in the stage is just 1,350m on the Cat 2 earlier in the race. The steep slopes were something I thought Chaves might like in this race, but he's not been great on the really steep parts I've noticed, but much happier around the 8-12%..

So if he can hang in there over the really steep parts, which I think he can, then I think we'll see him attack in the last 4kms. He may even go with Lopez, but if Lopez is in the same form he has been in the last two mountain stages he'll ride away from Chaves at the finish. He finished 4th in the stage to SN Sunday, and I think he's capable of coming close to a podium again tomorrow, but he did a really poor TT today, over 4 mins behind Froome, he might be feeling the effects of the last week.  

Michael Woods I think is coming to the edge of his limits strength-wise in his second Grand Tour, he faded towards the end of the Giro and I think he might fade a little here too. He should be ok on the steep section, we may even see him attack on it to try to get a little head start, but I think he could suffer later a few kms later when the attacks start flying and could go out the back door again. He did an ok TT today though, far better than anyone expected to finish 37th, maybe he has kept something in the locker. 

And Alberto Contador.. The man was brilliant in the TT today, always interesting to see Contador come storming out of the gates after a rest day... :-) He led for a while, he took 8" out of Ludvigsson's leading time and I think most of Spain were just getting a bit excited for him. He faded in the latter part of the course though, like a lot of them, he was up something like 29" on Ludvigsson's time at one stage. He will probably attack on the steepest parts of Los Machucos, actually, scrap that, he'll probably attack on the Puerto de Alisas, the Cat 1 that comes with 28kms to go. In fact, if he doesn't attack there, I'll be disappointed! So expect the Kamikaze attack, but ultimately he'll be reeled in and passed in the last 4kms. 

And of course the break will go, it will possibly have Majka, Bardet, Villella, de Gendt, Di Marchi, Atapuma and the like, but I think that Astana, Trek and Bahrain will chase it down as they all want to have a crack at the end of this stage. I really can't see past Lopez though if he does what he did in the last two mountain finishes, he'll just be too good again. I kind of like Kelderman at 25/1 too to possibly land a place, but not a big bet as he could be fatigued after today.. just thinking that a lot of the others will be just as fatigued. 

Recommendations -

4pts win on Miguel Angel Lopez at 6/4 on Betfair 

0.5pts each-way on Wilko Kelderman at 25/1 with 365

Matchbets

Lopez to beat Contador, Froome to beat Nibali and Poels to beat Pardilla - 2pts on the treble at 13/8 with Will Hill

Add Bardet to beat Majka to make it a four-fold - 1pt at 3.25/1 with Will Hill 

Kelderman to beat Contador - 2pts at evens