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Published on Friday, 08 September 2017 00:08

Vuelta Stage 19

Caso. Parque Natural de Redes to Gijón  

Friday 8th Sept, 149.7kms 

An ordinary looking stage that is just a warm-up for the brute that is the penultimate stage tomorrow. It's starts with a Cat 1 climb inside the first 29kms, but then becomes something like Liege-Bastogne-Liege for the remainder. 

It looks like a perfect day for the breakaway, I can't see the GC teams having any interest in this one, they'll be saving the legs for tomorrow, and it's a difficult stage to try to control. The early Cat 1 climb will help get a strong break away, we could see 20 or more riders in it.

And then it rolls and pitches for the next 120kms, with the final climb coming less than 17kms from the line, it could be the launching point for the last attacks that might decide the race.  

Stage 18 Review

Well, it's nice to deliver on a promise! I said I'd try to find you a big priced winner, and Sander Armée was our Lotto hero of the week this week to land the 80/1 as recommended last night. But if you went on Betfair you got even better odds, I took 160 and I had one follower tell me he had £5 at 180.5 which makes me immensely happy. It was an extraordinary situation when the break did finally go, every single one of my six picks were in it, including Toms Skujins, as promised, at 350/1, but he unfortunately didn't have the legs later in the stage to go with the winning move. 

As the stage came to a climax we suddenly had Alaphilippe, Lutsenko and Armée clear and looking like we were about to land the 1-2-3. I laid out of some Alaphilippe at evens literally minutes before he got dropped, the exertions of yesterday clearly got to him at the end of a hard day. Suddenly Lutsenko was trading at 1.3 and I laid 5pts at 1.35 just in case, about 2 minutes before SA rode away from him. So it was an amazing day for me. And Lutsenko stayed on to land the e/w at 22/1 too. The H2H double came in, the favourite Rui Costa was nowhere, down in 120th place, but the other two matchbets lost as DLC faded and Contador ride incredibly yet again. But all in it was a 28pt profit so not a bad day out at all. 

And what about Matteo Trentin? Called that one right too, and his efforts today landed him the 3pts at the intermediate and 9pts at the finish after finishing an impressive 7th. It moves him back to within 16pts of Froome and the possibility of 3 more points tomorrow if he gets in the break again.. And a big chance of winning the final stage too.. It's still possible, but we always have Froome as a winner anyway if he doesn't pass him, and the e/w on the 18/1. 

Froome fought back today, Sky were immense again as all their rivals tried to gang up on them and break them over the relentless hills. Aru took off, Sky weren't bothered, but they chased down everything else, with Froome even putting in a big dig in the last kilometre, a dig that shed Nibali and cost him 21" to repair some of the damage from yesterday. DLC lost a few seconds which saw him slip out of his 10th place, but our man Kruijswijk has replaced him. With Villella failing to get in the break today, Lopez's position in the KOM has strengthened, a good placing on the final stage could win it for him.

There is even a scenario that Astana could consider - taking home the KOM jersey would be far more prestigious than finishing 6th and 8th in the GC, MAL and Aru are not going to make up any more places.. So maybe Astana should ride hard from the start and keep the breaks in check, drag Lopez to the top of the first two Cat 1s and let him take the points and then leave him to his own devices on the last climb.. That would give him enough points to win the jersey, and if I was the DS, I'd be maybe considering it!!

The Route

Setting out from Caso Parque National de Redes they head north-west, descending gently for 20kms before they start on the first climb of they day, the Alto de la Colladona, which starts after just 22kms, and is a Cat 1 climb of 7kms at 6.8%. After a near-30km descent it's the double Cat 3 ascents, neither of which are overly long or difficult, although the second one, the Alto de la Falla de Los Lobos. La Casilla does average 8.2% for 4.3kms. 

The continue to descend towards the coast and almost get to Gijón before turning back inland and uphill again to the Alto de San Martin de Huerces, a Cat 3 climb of 4.5kms at 7.2%, a tough little hill that comes just 15.2kms from the finish. From the top it is downhill all the way to the finish in Gijón where the last 4kms or so are pretty flat, with a finishing straight of 800m along the seafront with just one sharp left-hander about 700m from the finish.  

Contenders and Favourites

You know, I tipped Matteo Trentin for yesterday's stage, but looking at the profile of this one, I actually think that the majority of this one actually suits him better.. I say the majority, but the problem lies in the first 29kms, as he will have to get over a Cat 1 climb. The Colladona is just 7kms long though, but averages 6.8%, but guess what - the day he won in Elpozo he got over a Cat 1 climb too - that was 7.7kms at an average of 6.6%.. And he was the one doing all the driving, dropping some supposed climbers along the way too.

Either he gets in the early break, or QS tries to keep the race somewhat together in the opening 29kms, driving it up the climb at a steady pace and then seeing if he can get in the break that forms once that climb is out of the way. Because I think that if he does manage to get away, there's an easy 3pts for him 37kms from the finish and he would have a big chance at taking the stage victory also, as long as he doesn't get dropped by someone punchy in that last climb of 7.2% for 4.5kms. But he did have a tough day today, so it's a tough one.. we saw how Alaphilippe faded today after two tough days.. what he needs is for Jungels to go with him, he tried today but was reeled back in.. 

After that it is going to be the usual suspects of possible break candidates.. It's a pretty short stage at just 149kms, so it could be flat out action from the start with riders trying to get in the break, it should be an explosive first 20kms, and then it depends on whether a team like QS tries to keep it together on the Cat 1 or whether the peloton sits back and lets a group of strong climber/puncheurs get away early on the first climb. There's 30kms of gentle downhill from the top of the first climb, so if the peloton does ease off the gas going up it and down it, the break could suddenly have 9-10 minutes. 

So it's a tricky break to try to figure out - will it be all strong climbers get away on a Cat 1 climb? Will there be some rouleurs and puncheurs make it in there that could have the advantage in the closing stages? Hard to know, but I think when it does go it will be a combination. We will have the likes of Davide Villella who will try to pick up the mountain points, but maybe, just maybe Astana might try to stop him getting the cat 1 max points by putting someone like LL Sanchez or Bilbao in the break.

It would also help with their team classification bid if they manage to go all the way to the finish, even though that is almost as good as wrapped up. Sky won't have a man in the break probably, unless they allow someone like Gianni Moscon to give it a go, he might like a shot at this stage. But with Froome losing so much time to Nibali on Los Machucos and with the equally brutal Angliru to come, I think Sky will want to save every single watt of energy. 

So it's back to the usual suspects, I think the break could get an 8-10 min lead again and they will be fighting it out for the win. Alaphilippe is 12/1 joint favourite with Rui Costa and I can't have either of them.. Alaphilippe was spent today, hard to see him go out and win after three days in a break. Rui Costa? Well he was 11/1 yesterday and I said it was an insane price, and he did nothing today to make me think 12/1 is a better bet. 

Matteo Trentin is 16/1 with PP and I think I have to have some of that after talking myself in to it above, Luis Leon is also 16/1 but he didn't really suggest to me today that he'll be winning from a break tomorrow. Nicholas Roche has said that he wants to keep attacking before the end and he's running out of chances, he won't be winning on Angliru or on the last stage, so this is his last chance. He's 22/1 with 365 and that's just about acceptable, if he gets in the break he has a chance. 

Daniel Moreno is just 16/1 also and I really can't see why. He won't be able to shed all of a break on that last cat 3 climb and he won't win a sprint finish. I can't have Majka, Bardet or de Gendt and Visconti was in the break today and although he was dropped on the run in to the finish he finished really well to take 3rd place, he almost looked to be catching the leaders at one point on the final hill. Can he go again? I'm not sure. 

I can't see Sander Armée going again, even though he looked so strong today, but maybe it's time his team-mate, our hero from last week Tomasz Marczynski has another go, Lotto are on a high right now with two stage wins to their name. He's 33/1 with most bookies, but 29/1 to lay on Betfair, there's an arbitrage there for you if you want it. 

And there are loads and loads of other hopefuls of course, we could throw a load of darts and come nowhere near the day we had today with 6 in the break, but I'm happy to have a small stab at Roche, Trentin and Marczynski, don't want to give too much of today's profits back. I might add a few more for the break in the morning if I see any news or interview quotes.. Apologies for the late publication tonight, I got tied up with something for longer than I expected. 

Update - 8:30am - I'm adding Bart de Clercq to the options for today, Lotto are on a high as I said and De Clercq was on the attack on a similar stage to this on stage 8th, he finished in 8th place.. We've had two amazing winners with Lotto, they have nothing to ride for except stage wins and maybe we'll hit the hat-trick with De Clercq today. I'm adding him to the Marczynski bet in case it's he goes instead.  

Update - 10:00 - I'm also adding a tiny bet on JJ Lobato, as I saw something this morning where he was interviewed and said he feels good and hopes to contest the win today.. It will be hard for him to get up that Cat 1 at the start, but if he can manage it, he'd have a chance.. and he's 300/1 so at that price he's worth a shot. 

Recommendations -

0.5pts each way on Roche at 22/1 with Bet365 

0.5pts each-way on Tomasz Marczynski at 33/1 with various

1pt win on Matteo Trentin at 16/1 with PP

0.3pts e/w on Bart de Clercq at 125/1 with 365

0.2pts each-way on JJ Lobato at 300/1 with Bet365

Matchbets

Roche to beat Moreno - 2pts at evens with 365

Marczynski to beat De Gendt - 2pts at evens