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Published on Friday, 08 September 2017 23:38

Vuelta Stage 20

Corvera de Asturias to Alto de l'Angliru

Sat 9th Sept, 117.5kms 

The final chance to reshape the GC top ten, with a brutal had stage that finishes on top of the now-legendary Angliru with its slopes of over 20% that will blow the race to bits just 2kms from the end of the climbing for this year. 

This is a very short stage at just 117.5kms, but in those 117kms they will climb 3,500m, most of which is backloaded in the last 50kms as they take on two Cat 1's and an Especiale climb. The Algliru is the highlight of this entire race possibly, something the riders will have been dreading for all of the previous 19 stages. It ascends in to the clouds and mist and the road is narrow, rough and packed with delirious fans getting right in to your face.

It's been used five times in the Vuelta in total, and twice in the last seven years. Chris Horner chasing home little Kenny Elissonde in 2013 to secure the overall victory, with Valverde and Nibali 54" back in 3rd and 4th. That day they also took on the Cordal, but it was an easier day in general.

The Vuelta also finished on the Algliru in 2011 when Juan José Cobo pulled off one of those 'extra-terrestrial' rides to win the stage from Poels, Menchov, Froome and Wiggins and it was enough for Cobo to hold on for the overall by 13" from Wiggins. Wiggins unshipped his chain coming in to the final climb so had to go in to the red earlier than he would have wanted just to get back in to contention, and when the road did tilt upwards with 6kms to go, Cobo went, with Froome towing Wiggins behind him.

But when they hit the really steep part with 2kms to go, Cobo just pulled away. Wiggins was in all sorts of trouble, zig-zagging up the climb, you can see his haunted pain-face below! Froome left him behind and went in pursuit of Cobo with Poels and Menchov, and by the finish, Wiggins had lost 1'21" to Cobo and 33" to his team-mate. 

Stage 19 Review

mmm... not a great result from such a promising start. Lobato made the break with 3 team-mates, but they were truly rubbish, not one of the four of them could do anything to stop Lobato from being one of the first dropped. Trentin was in there, he was 2/1 favourite for a lot of the day, but got dropped on second climb and had to chase hard to get back in. He did take the 4pts for the intermediate, but faded out of it again later when the road went uphill again. 

And Nico Roche - looked very strong all day, attacked near the end and got a gap (too early if you ask me), traded to odds-on (where I layed out 2pts of my stake) and after he was caught bizarrely led out the sprint from 700m out. I picked two Lotto Soudal men, a Lotto-Soudal rider won, but of course it was De Gendt and none of my two.. The obvious pick.. but it was because he was the obvious pick, and he was such a low price that I avoided him. 

Trentin did enough on the stage to cut Froome's lead to just 10pts and there are 29pts on offer on Sunday in the sprint stage in Madrid. You would expect Trentin to take the 4 intermediate points that come about 30kms from the finish on Sunday, so it could all come down to where Froome finishes tomorrow versus where Trentin finishes on Sunday. Looks like the 1-2 is home and hosed but it would be nice to get the 18/1 winner. Roche won his matchbet, but that was cancelled out by de Gendt busting the other one.. a 4pt loss on the day in total. 

And the KOM competition is going to go right down to the wire too, with Villela picking up some points today, he's 20pts ahead of Lopez, but there are 35pts available on the last 3 climbs and I frankly don't see Villella being up there tomorrow.                                                                                                                        

The Route

Heading south from Corvera de Asturias they start climbing straight away and although it's an uncategorised climb it does rise to 450m, averaging 3.5% over 12.7kms. After a 10km descent they continue heading south and the road is rising gently all the time for the next 50kms or so, reaching almost 500m, before they start on the first categorised climb of the day, the Alto de la Cobertoria. This is a Cat 1 climb of 8.1kms at 8.6%, but there's a km of flat in the climb, the average should be closer to 9.4%, with a max of 18% along the way, so it's actually pretty tough, and as it comes just 47kms from the finish, expect the fireworks to start early here.. 

A very fast and tricky 10km descent takes them straight on to climb two, the Cat 1 Alto del Cordial, which averages 8.6% for 5.7kms, but it hits 10% in several parts and a max of 12.9%. Another 11km descent as they wind their way down to La Vega Riosa, which takes them to the bottom of the final climb with 12.5kms to go. 

The Alto de L'Algliru comes in two parts, with the first 5kms averaging 7% then it flattens out for just over a kilometre as they pass through Viapara. But the road kicks up hard from there, with the next 6.8kms averaging 12.9% before a gentle descent to the finish for the last 800m or so. If you look closely at the profile of the Angliru in the tab below though you'll see why this climb is so feared and so legendary. The gradient just goes mental for about a kilometre as it hits 15%, 19%, 21% and as high as 23.8% in a stretch that has pros almost coming to a standstill, the road is so steep. If you get in to trouble here, you could lose a minute or more by the finish. 

One thing to keep an eye on though tomorrow is the weather... it's going to be raining all day and will be very wet and misty up on the Angliru. It's going to be cold too, only 13-16 degrees, so will affect some more than others. The bouncy climbers like Contador and Lopez might he hindered a little more than the sitting-down climbers. 

Contenders and Favourites

I think this is going to be a GC stage and wasn't going to give the break much hope.. The pace is going to be furious from the start, they will all have been on the rollers before the off and it will be brutally fast I think for the opening 50kms. Even if the break does go I think the pace from the peloton will be really high and they won't get much of a gap, then it could all explode on the very first climb, the Cobertoria.

If the likes of Contador, Nibali and Lopez really want to shake things up then they could start attacking here, or at least we could see Sky either drive it up the climb to try to stop attacks from going, or the likes of Bahrain, Trek and Astana might take over and chase down the break. Either way, I don't give the break much chance of staying away to the finish. Froome has even admitted tonight that he expects Contador to attack from afar, the way Contador has been going I wouldn't be surprised to see him attack in the neutralised zone. 

But I'm not so sure that the likes of Nibali, Zakarin and Lopez will attack from afar, if they do and go too much in to the red they could lose loads of time on the final 7kms. It might be better for them to keep their energy and really go for it in the closing stages, if they are going well and some others are struglling, there will be minutes of a difference between some. 

If the GC  battle hasn't erupted by the time they reach the second Cat 1 climb, the Cordal, then it will almost certainly explode in to life here. It starts just 27kms from the finish and tops out just 21kms from the finish, and as we saw with Lopez on the Sierra Nevada he's not afraid to attack from this sort of distance out. 

But will Lopez risk it this far out this time? If he goes too hard too far out he could really suffer on the Angliru. Instead, I think Aru will be the one attacking from afar and teasing the others out. He rode very well on Thursday to ride away from the peloton and hold most of his lead on the final climb when the whole pack were chasing him down, he seems to have some strength left at the end of these three weeks, he finished comfortably with the big group today. I can see Aru try on the bottom of the Cordal, that is if he hasn't got dropped on the descent off the Cobertoria... He could bridge to someone like Luis Leon or Pelle Bilbao who might have been in the break and they could help him try to stretch his lead out to give him a chance on the Angliru.  

Another rider who could try something tomorrow I feel is Ilnur Zakarin. The Kausha man has been getting stronger as the race has gone on and looked good on Los Machucos, a climb that didn't really suit him. He will like the long hard climb and his sitting-down style will help him on a wet and hard Angrilu. He did lose a key aide today though with Matvey Mamikin crashing out, he could find himself isolated a long way from the top here. But that didn't hinder him too much on Los Machucos, and he has a knack of being able to ride away from these GC guys. He just needs to stay upright and in contact on the descents to the bottom of the Angliru, something that isn't always guaranteed with Zak. 

Froome of course has a massive chance too, because of the way he will ride this climb. While others are attacking him and fighting with the bikes all over the road, Froome will get dropped probably, but he'll just be looking at his stem and focusing on his power metre and will time trial to the top of the climb. If he can do that and come back at tiring riders he could ride straight past them in the last 2kms and go on to win. His powerful seated climbing style will be a benefit on the slippy roads.

And he has Woet Poels to support him, and he has done very well on this climb in the past, finishing 2nd behind Cobo in 2011, with Menchov and Froome just behind him. Nieve will also probably be there for him until maybe the last 5kms, Poels will help keep him in touch, then Froome will work his way back in to it. It just depends on whether the birds have flown too far by the time the cat comes after them. 

Vincenzo Nibali should like a climb like this too but has shown some signs of weakness in the relatively easy (relative compared to the Angliru!) to yesterday's stage, losing time to Froome unexpectedly. His seated, powerful style should help, but if he shows any of the weakness again here, he could lose lots of time here. If he has a really bad day, he could even lose his podium spot, Zakarin is only 52" behind him and Kelderman is only 40" behind him.. In fact, Ilnur Zakarin is 11/10 to finish in the top 3 with Will Hill and I think that is worth a bet, he could move in to the top 3 tomorrow. I'm trying to lay Nibali for the top 3 too, at 1/6, but I may not get taken.. might go up to about 1/5 to see if someone will take it..

But I must admit, I was shocked when I saw that Bet365 had come out with Alberto Contador as their 11/8 favourite.. Seriously? 11/8 with 365?? I don't know about that at all.. Ok, yes, he has won up here in the past, most likely while doped up. Yes, he has been attacking like a man that was racing his last ever race, and he's gotten away from the clutches of the Skybots on more than one occassion. And yes, he did fairly fly up Los Machucos in pursuit of Denifl, dropping 'Superman' along the way. But 11/8? Are the bookies worried that Froome might gift him the win? It's very possible I suppose, there's great respect between the two of them and it would be a huge moment for Contador and a great PR exercise by Froome, the race is in the bag anyway, and he's got two stage wins in the bag. 

The problem I have is that he may burn himself out with all the attacking, and he may feel the effects of days of attacking, on both the uphills, and on the downhills as we saw today. Surely he is getting fatigued, and what's more, I'm not sure he'll have any help hitting the last 5kms. So too risky for me, although I'm thinking I might have a small bet as a hedge against the 'not stage wins' bet we have going, would be a shame to bust that on the final day of climbing..

So what about Lopez then? He's been looking tired lately, unable to stay with Contador on Los Machucos, although he did finish really fast though to take 3rd place. He did struggle on the uphill finish on stage 18 though too, losing 16" to Nibali and 37" to Froome, so maybe three weeks in only his first Grand Tour is taking its toll. If he is feeling a bit better though he should like this climb, he went very well on Sierra Nevada and he has won this year on the long hard climb to Kitzbüheler Horn in the Tour of Austria. The shorter stage might be in his favour if he is fatigued a little, and it could well be that we see him dance up this climb tomorrow while the others flounder.  

One other that I like for this maybe is Steven Kruijswijk - he seems to be getting stronger and stronger as the race goes on and will like this 'diesel engine' type climb where he can grind his way up. He might be able to go a little earlier than some of the other GC guys as he's so far back from those worried about their top 10 positions, and in fact he sort of hinted in a tweet this afternoon that he is going to 'go', he said he was just hoping he got to go before Contador does.. He's 44/1 with Will Hill and that's worth a go. 

What about Michael Woods? He has a chance, he has been riding extremely well and will like the steeper parts. The problem is that he likes shorter, punchier climbs and I think he might be really at his limit here on this long, brutal climb. Same with David de la Cruz, he's not shown me anything in this race to suggest he'll be winning on a climb like this. Wilko Kelderman should be solid enough too, I think 5th to 10th for him, I can't see him riding away with it though. 

As for the breakaway hopefuls, well I was chatting to my Cannondale man and he said that he gives the break more of a chance than I do, so then you have to look at the likes of Romain Bardet again, although I really can't see him going again tomorrow and having the legs for a finish like this. Rafal Majka rode really well on Los Machucos, playing a different role that day of a GC rider mixing it with Froome and co., which will we get tomorrow? Hard to tell, as he could go in the break and strike for home solo on either the penultimate or final climb, or he could sit and wait and get towed to the Angliru and take off on his own then.. He will not be marked as closely as a GC threat so could get a gap that he can build on. Big ask though, I think it's unlikely we'll see him winning here.  

Sander Armée could go again, he put out some massive watts to win his stage two days ago, pumping out over 7 W/Kg on the final pull. I'd say it took a lot out of him though and as I don't give the break much of a chance I think the 40/1 on him is too short. Darwin Atapuma can possibly get up the road too, but we haven't seen much of him, and Carapaz, De Marchi and the Yates are some more possibles too, but I've not much confidence in them either.

So what is the verdict then? Well I think Froome will do enough to win the overall, but he may not be able to take the win. Contador is sure to give it a good go, but I think he's far too short at 13/8 with Skybet. I like Aru's chances of getting up the road early again and he's an ok price at 44/1 with Hills. I also like Kruijswijk at that price and  Zak attack could land a top 3 too at an OK price of 14/1. Whatever happens, it's going to be an epic stage and defintely one not to be missed.  

Recommendations -

0.75pt each-way on Ilnur Zakarin at 14/1 with Skybet

0.5pts each-way on Steven Kruijswijk at 44/1 with Will Hill

0.5pts each-way on Fabio Aru at 44/1 with Will Hill

3pts on Zakarin to finish in the top 3 overall at 11/10 with Hills 

Matchbets

Kruijswijk to beat DLC, Aru to beat Meintjes and Poels to beat Nieve - 2pts on the treble at 3/1 with Hills

Kelderman to beat Woods - 2pts at 3/4 with Hills

Zakarin to beat Nibali - 3pts at 5/6 with Hills