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Published on Thursday, 29 June 2017 00:10

Tour de France Other Markets

A selection of other markets

No other race is given half as much attention by the bookies in the year, where sometimes we have to make do with a winners' market and not much else, sometimes nothing at all! So for three weeks in a year we're like kids in a candy shop.. 

Generally they don't offer a great deal of value, as the bookies are really venturing into unchartered territory, most of them are uncomfortable with just offering a market on all the runners in a race with less than a 150% over-round, others sometimes just don't bother getting involved at all or limit bets to ridiculously low stakes. So to try to help I've gone through some of the many markets on offer and picked out some bets that interest me, from some solid looking bets to the weird and wacky.

To win a stage / Not win a stage

Mark Cavendish NOT to win a stage - 2pts at 5/4 - I made this bet last year, and boy how wrong was I, Cav went on to take 4 stage wins in a blistering Tour de France for him. I am going back in this year though to try to get my money back, his recent illness will surely have taken the edge off him, and if he hasn't built up much stamina after being out for so long, he might not even finish the race. Kittel should win quite a few stages and I think Greipel, Démare, Sagan and Bouhanni will be all capable of finishing ahead of Cav.

Alexander Kristoff to not win a stage - 4pts at 1/4. I just can't see Kristoff winning a stage, he has been in poor form all year and although he has four wins to his name they were all in pretty low-grade events. He will not beat the top flat sprinters here on the flat stages and he will not beat Sagan on the hillier finishes, so I don't think he'll be winning at all. 

Dylan Groenewegen to win less than 2 stages - 6pts at 1/3 - I think this is buying money, he'll be lucky to win one stage, I can't for the life of me see how he can win two stages.. 

Thibaut Pinot to win a stage - 2pts at 6/5 - I think the bird has flown a little on this one, as he was 9/4 earlier in the week when I first started looking at these bets, he's 6/5 now. 6/5 to evens was around the price I expected to be honest, I fully expect him to try and deliver on his promise to go for stages and not the GC

King of the Mountains Matchbets

Simon Yates to beat Esteban Chaves - 3pts at evens. I think Yates has the ability to stay with the GC leaders, I'm not sure Chaves has yet, just coming back from injury. Yates could also go for some KOM mountains, not sure Chaves will be all that bothered...

Points Competition Matchbets

Greipel to beat Cavendish, Valverde to beat Ulissi, Démare to beat Groenewegen - 2pts on the treble at 2/1. 

Top 10 Finish

I've already mentioned some of these in my overall preview, here they are again:

Emanuel Buchman - 2pts at 9/4

Louis Meintjes - 3pts at 4/7 I think both of these two young guns will be battling all the way to Paris and are capable of top 10 finishes

Overall Head to Heads

This is a match-bet for the duration of the Tour, who will finish the higher of the two. If just one rider finishes he is declared the winner of the Match-bet, but if neither finish, the bet is void and you get your money back. Here are some that interested me:

Talansky to beat Majka - 2pts at 2/1 - I think that Talansky will be riding a solid and steady race in order to get in to the top 10, whereas Majka could be all over the place in search of KOM points and stage wins. That erratic-ness of his racing could see him slip off the pace, which will help with him being able to get away in breaks. But the 2/1 on Talansky looks too big to me. 

Bardet to beat Aru  - 2pts at evens - in a similar vein, I think Aru could be a bit more erratic and ambitious for stage wins than Bardet, and as a result, Bardet will steadily climb the GC, Aru might go the other way. 

Pierre Latour to beat Warren Barguil - 3pts at 5/6 - I think Latour is just in much better form than Barguil at the moment and will come close to landing a top 10, which I don't think Barguil is capable of. 

Rider NOT to finish the race!

This is a new one on me from Paddy Power - a rider to abandon the race. I like their favourite for it, Mark Cavendish, I have a feeling he may not make it to Paris, it all might depend on how the first week goes for him, there are a lot of sprint stages and if he's not competitive he may call it quits before the last week. He has been saying that he is coming here to compete and that he intends to finish, but I didn't get a very confident vibe from him. 

Race Winning Margin 

This is a tricky one because first you have to try and guess the winner, and then figure out what sort of manner will he win it in.. Will Froome run away with it from early on and just add to his lead? Will Porte ride away from them all and put the icing on the cake in the final TT? Will Richie and Froome be in each other's pocket and the time bonuses be shared around, so that there is a very tight margin in it at the finish? .Paddy Power have set up an over/under 1'20" winning margin market, with under 1'20" being 11/10 and over 1'20" being 4/6. I think it will be tight. I think Froome and Porte may well mark each other out of it on most of the stages, and they will be close in the TTs too.. I think the 11/10 on under 1'20" is the bet, I think the gap will be around a minute. 

2pts win on the winning margin being under 1'20" at  11/10 with Paddy Power

Number of Finishers 

Anothe tricky one, how many riders will get to Paris. The line is quite high this year at 170.5 - I think it was 165 last year, but I expected it to be high as I think there will be quite a few finishers this year with the slightly easier route. There are lots of flat stages a few lumpy, bumpy ones but only about 4 really hard stages. I think barring accidents and illnesses quite a few riders will finish, I think between 175-180, so I'm going for over 170.5 finishers at evens with PP.

3pts on over 170.5 finishers at evens with PP 

Top French Rider

No question here, it has to be Romain Bardet barring injury, accident or illness. The 4/5 with PP looks a solid bet. 

5pts on Romain Bardet to be the best French rider in the race at 4/5 with PP

UPDATE - 07/07/2017:

Well the Movistar for the Team Classification has torpedoed thanks to Valverde crashing out on the first stage and Quintana looking weak on the first mountain stage, Sky look untouchable now but are no price any more. Valverde's crash also looks like busting the Points treble, the other two will be winners (unless Démare doesn't finish).. The only thing we can hope for is that Ulissi doesn't finish and it becomes a double. It also has hurt the number of finishers market with 5 guys going in the first few stages, but it has settled down a bit since. It's touch and go though, if you're worried about it, maybe back unders to cut some losses. 

Cavendish has paid out on the Not to win a stage market, so that's good and Bardet is looking good for the best Frenchman, he's 20" ahead of Latour and I think that gap will only grow. He might need a minute on him in the final TT but I think it should be easily manageable for him. 

I had a chat with my man in Cannondale this morning, I asked whether he thought Rolland might be asked to reign in the KOM amibitions and work for Uran and Talansky now that they are in the top 20 on the GC, he said that Uran doesn't need a team around him, he does his own thing.. but that Talansky is going for GC.. He still thinks Rolland will try for the KOM, but I don't think he'll win it this year, that competition is still a minefield...

Talansky is interesting though, he went well on the Planche stage, he's just a minute outside the top 10 and could mount a challenge. I had a little this morning on him for a top 10 place at 3/1, I think it's an ok bet. I had 2.5pts on that this morning. 

Fun Treble - Porte to win GC, Sagan wins Green and Majka wins KOM - 1pt at 25/1 with PP