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Published on Thursday, 22 June 2017 00:50

TDF 2017 Points Jersey Preview

The battle for the other jerseys in the Tour de France are as keenly fought as the battle for the yellow jersey, with the sprinters jersey and the KOM jersey two of the most famous and iconic in all of cycling. 

The points classification is the third oldest of the currently awarded jersey classifications. Introduced in the 1953 Tour de France, it was first won by Fritz Schär. The classification was added to draw the participation of the sprinters as well as celebrate the 50th anniversary of the Tour. Although the best climber of the TDF was first recognised in 1933, the distinctive polka dot jersey was not introduced until 1975 when Lucien Van Impe took it home. 

There was a big change two years ago to the way the points were awarded in the Green Jersey competition in what looked like an attempt to make it a more open competition for the other sprinters, and not just Peter Sagan's for the taking again.  “We want to give more of a bonus for those who win,” Christian Prudhomme said about the change to the points structure, referring to the fact that Sagan strolled to victory in the jersey in 2014 without winning a single stage.

That didn't stop him last year, and in fact he racked up three victories along the way as well, just in case.. They have changed it slightly again for 2016, changing the classification of stages and the number of riders who will get points, reducing the flat stages to 15 points winners from 20 last year. 

They are now awarding 50 points to the winner of the flat stages and 30 to the runner-up meaning, the difference from 1st to 2nd is 20 points, compared to just 10 under the old rules. Points for the pure sprint stages are now awarded as follows - 50, 30, 20, 18, 16, 14, 12, 10, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 — compared to what it was previously: 45, 35, 30, 26, 22, 20, 18, 16, 14, 12, 10, 8, 6, 4, 2, so it's most definitely weighted towards the stage winners.

Stage Categories

The number of points up for grabs depends on the stage classification, and again this year they are awarding the same intermediate points for all stages, two years there were points awarded only to the first 5 for the second category stages and only for the first 3 for the third category stages. 

For the stages they are calling 'Without particular difficulty' ("sans difficulté particulière"), or in other words, the Flat stages they are awarding points for the first 15 riders in the following allocation: 50, 30, 20, 18, 16, 14, 12, 10, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2. For the Intermediate Sprints (marked TV on the route maps) there are points for the first fifteen riders compared to ten places last year: 20, 17, 15, 13, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1 - with 20 points up for grabs for each TV they could play a big part in the outcome of the jersey. The Flat stage are stages 2,4,6,7,10,11,19,21

For stages they are calling 'Hilly' ("parcours accidenté"): there are points for the first 15 places: 30, 25, 22, 19, 17, 15, 13, 11, 9, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2. The Hilly stage are stages 3,5,8,14,15,16

For stages they are calling 'Big Difficulty' ("grande difficulté") or Mountain Stages: there are points for the first 15: 20, 17, 15, 13, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1. The Mountain stages are stages 9, 12, 13, 17, 18

So there are a lot of 'Flat Stages' this year, eight in total, with half of them coming in the first 7 stages, meaning that a strong sprinter could well be throwing it up to Sagan this year by the end of the first week. Someone like Kittel, Bouhanni or Démare could have taken a number of stages and may well have the jersey on their shoulders, pushing them on to get more at intermediate sprints etc, which again will be very important this year. 

The Contenders

Peter Sagan - 4/7 favourite

This could have been a very short preview, I literally could type "Sagan wins" and be done with it. It's a formality barring an accident. It really is. At odds of 4/7 you're basically betting that there is a 64% chance that he will complete the course, and you'd have to think based on that, he is still value at 4/7... If he stays upright he wins - is there a 36% chance of him getting sick or crashing? I'd say it's probably closer to 10-20%, so his price should possibly be closer to 1/4.. 

Sagan is going for a record-equalling sixth green jersey in a row, a record currently held by Eric Zabel, father of Rick Zabel. The way he is riding, it looks likely he'll equal it, and probably will beat it too in the years to come, he is still only 27 after all. The only guy currently on the scene I believe who could topple him in the years to come is Fernando Gaviria who seems to be carved from a similar type of granite to Sagan, but he's not doing the Tour, so he's safe for this year. 

Three 2nds in the TDU, 2nd in the Omloop, he got off the mark for the season in Kurrne-Brussells-Kuurne. Winner of two stages and the Green in Tirreno, 2nd in MSR, a stage and the points in California, two stages and the Green in the Tour de Suisse.. He has been phenomenal again this season, and after seemingly taking the first stage to get warmed up in the TDS he destroyed the rest of them in the two sprints he won, he turned on the after-burners and was gone and no-one could catch him. He won the 5th stage doing a hula dance!

The route shouldn't be a hindrance to him again, plenty of opportunities for him to pick up points in intermediates and in final sprints, he will be challenging the best sprinters for the flat sprints you'd have to think based on his speed in the TDS, but also there are a few lumpy, uphill stage finishes that look perfect for him, stage 3 in to Longwy will probably see him take the Green for the first time. Stage 14 to Rodez will see him go close (lost out to GVA last time up here two years ago) and maybe 15 and 16, if the break hasn't taken them. 

Marcel Kittel - 5/1 Best Price

Last year Kittel was 5/1 second favourite and I warned not to back him as he wouldn't come close to Sagan and may not even finish it. Well, he did finish it, but boy was he a long way behind - Sagan finished 242 points ahead of Kittel, the biggest winning margin he has had in his five wins, and in fact the biggest winning margin in the last 20 years, possibly even ever (didn't have the time or patience to go back any further on PCS!). 

Kittel will probably win a few stages, there are possibly up to 6-8 stages which could end in a sprint - with the race starting in Dusseldorf and the ASO trying to build bridges with German broadcasters, it looks like they may even have tried to shape a route that might tilt the balance back a little in Kittel's favour. 

He has seven wins to his name this season, including the Scheldeprijs, and he recently duelled with Sagan in California, taking the first sprint with Sagan in 2nd, but Sagan took stage 3 with Kittel only down in 12th. And just a few weeks back he showed his legs are good with 2nd place in the opening 7.5km sprint of the Ster ZLM prologue (Greipel was in 9th) and a win in stage 5 ahead of Groenewegen and Greipel. 

If anyone is going to run Sagan close, it's probably going to be Kittel, and I think there is less chance of him not finishing this year as the route doesn't look as brutal. He should win a number of stages, he could even be coming to the Champs Élysées on the final day in with a shout of taking the Green Jersey, but I'm not sure the gap will be tight enough for him to take it off Sagan. 

I think though he is a back-to-lay candidate on Betfair, back him (WHEN THEY GET AROUND TO ADDING HIM TO THE MARKET!!)  at 5/1 or bigger and then lay him a week in after he has taken a nice lead in the competition, give yourself a free bet on him.. His price should contract to maybe 2/1 or shorter, as long as he racks up a stage win or 2. 

André Greipel - 9/1 Best Price

Greipel is the exact same price he was a year ago, which is a lot shorter than he was two years ago at 28/1.. That year he only went out and won four stages in total, including two of the first four, yet still finished 66pts behind Sagan who didn't win a single stage! Last year he was 4th overall, so e/w backers lost out. 

Greipel hasn't had a great season by his standards, with only four race wins this year, with the only decent wins being his stage win in the Giro and the stage in Paris-Nice. Besides that it's been a lot of disappointing and frustrating results for him and his team. Both he and the Lotto leadout just don't seem to be clicking and all too often he is out of the equation far too soon in the sprint and left with too much to do. 

But it's not like he doesn't have the speed, he showed that in his win in the Paris-Nice stage, most of the best sprinters in the world were behind him.. Of course, like Kittel and Sagan he'll have his A-Team with him here for the leadout and they'll have had plenty of time to practice getting the leadout right in the weeks leading up to the TDF.

It has sometimes been the case though that Greipel seemed to have lost some of his bottle in the sprints, he didn't seem to want to put himself in too much danger when things got a bit crazy. The sprints in the TDF, especially in the first week are pretty crazy, so he might find himself out of the podium places in some sprints, which won't bode well for his Green ambitions. I think he's missing something this year, I think the team are missing something this year, and you can't be missing something when it comes to sprints in the TDF.. I think he'll finish 3rd or 4th again, but should continue his amazing record of winning a stage in every Grand Tour he's entered.

Arnaud Démare - 12/1 Best Price

Maybe Démare could be the one to put it up to Sagan? He's obviously not quite in the same league as Sagan, but he has a similar style to him in that he can get over some of the lumpier days when other sprinters are left by the wayside. He also doesn't mind an uphill finish too as we saw in the first stage of Paris Nice this year too when he burst away with Alaphilippe and took a fine stage win 

He has 7 wins to his name this year, including wins in Paris-Nice, 4 days of Dunkerque and just a few weeks ago in the Dauphiné. And just a week ago he won the Halle-Ingooigem in Belgium and took the French National Championships with a powerful (if a bit wayward) sprint from Bouhanni.

He's only done the TDF twice though and the closest he has come to winning a stage was a 3rd place in 2014, and he has come nowhere near winning the points competition. In fact, he has only done two Grand Tours ever, It's easy to forget he's only 25 years old. I think he could actually do really well though in this year's Tour, he's in great form, full of confidence, and there are a number of stages where he should do well on, and the FDJ leadout has been looking very impressive in some of the recent races. If they can look after Démare he'll score well. He could be an e/w outsider I think. He was 16/1 last week when I started writing this but has since been chopped to 12/1, but that's still worth an e/w I think. 

Michael Matthews - 16/1 Best Price

It's been a mixed year again for Matthews, with only two wins to his name this season, one being in the Pais Vasco, where he beat no-one of note really, and the second was in TDS where he got the better of Sagan on stage 3, but Sagan had sprinted very strangely, almost as if he was just playing around and sussing out the opposition. He was weaving in and out, accelrating, easing off, looking at everyone, and then when the sprint started he was caught a little flat footed and Matthews got the jump on him.

In the other stages Sagan easily disposed of him, with Matthews finishing down in 6th twice. He just didn't look anywhere near being good enough to me to be taking stage wins at the Tour, he really should be beating the likes of Trentin, Cort Neilsen and Paddy Bevin. He is a dual stage winner in the Giro (but failed to finish the race both times) but he did finish the Tour in 2015, albeit one of the last riders home. In 2016 he finished 3rd in the Points competition, his stage win and three 5th places helped to secure him a top 3 slot. 

But he doesn't look in great shape to me this year, he has been pretty mediocre actually. He has won just two races since this time last year, and he had a pretty disappointing Classics campaign. I don't think his team are good enough in the leadouts and I can't see him challenging for this jersey this year. He may not even win any stages, Sagan, Kittel, Démare and Griepel are all better than him I think, so he might be worth a bet in the 'to not win a stage' betting. 

Nacer Bouhanni - 16/1 Best Price

The boxer boxed himself in to a corner last year, knocking himself out of the Tour after a late-night punch-up with guests in his hotel that he thought were being a bit too noisy. Surely he won't commit Hara-kiri this year and we will see him line up in Dusseldorf. 

But it hasn't been a smooth preparation for Bouhanni either, with him crashing in the Tour of Yorkshire and getting knocked out cold, footage of him motionless on the ground was quite scary at the time. He recovered and was lucky there was no broken bones, but due to the concussion he suffered he was not allowed go to the Tour of California, where he missed out on the opportunity to take on Sagan. 

He returned to action in the Dauphiné where he took a 3rd, 5th and 7th place in the sprints, but was never looking like he was going to beat Démare, something that once again happened in the French Nationals on Sunday. He has a very strong leadout train to take him to the last kilometre, but that's where it often falls apart for them and the other teams like Quickstep and Bora will take over. If they can get their timing right they could put him in with a chance of some good results during the race. But like Cav, the lack of miles might count against him later in the race and he may not make Paris. Also, I can't see him outscore Sagan, or Kittel or even maybe Démare, so no bet for me. 

Mark Cavendish - 18/1 Best Price

This is going to be short - I can't see Cavendish challenging for this jersey, having only just come back from his enforced absence since Milan Sanremo on March 18th. First it was an ankle injury that he suffered from, and then he was diagnosed with Mononucleosis (or glandular fever) at the end of April. That meant a long absence through training, and although he returned in the Tour of Slovenia and took 2nd to Bennett on the 2nd sprint stage, this is different league altogether and I think he'll struggle for fitness and stamina. 

And you also have Alexander Kristoff at 22/1, but I think he just isn't going well enough this year to really feature consistently for this competition, likewise Dylan Groenewegen, John Degenkolb and Sonny Colbrelli. Greg Van Avermaet might get involved in some finishes, he could win in Rodez again, but he won't score many more points. 

Recommendations:

Sagan wins, no question, barring accident. So you are left with the decision to back him at 4/7 and pray he stays upright, or you can try to look elsewhere for a bit of e/w value. There's not a lot out there, but I have a feeling Démare might have a good race and FDJ should get behind him. He could win a stage or two and, barring accidents, finish the race. At 12/1 with Bet365 he's getting a small e/w from me. 

1pt each-way on Arnaud Démare at 12/1 with Bet365

Look to back Marcel Kittel for 3pts at 5/1 or bigger and lay him back at 2/1 or shorter, maybe after stage 7, or 11.. 

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