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Published on Wednesday, 19 July 2017 22:18

TDF 2016 Stage 18

Briançon to Izoard

Thursday 20th July, 178kms

A start and finish that's just 21kms apart, nice and easy for the fans to catch the depart and mozy on over to the finish which will be swinging in around 4 1/2 hours later. In between they loop south and back up again on a 178km stage with a sting in the tail. 

The final mountain stage stage spent almost entirely over 1000m in the Alps, it starts out steady enough for 120kms, but then hits the two big climbs of the Col de Vars and the summit finish to Izoard in the last 60kms or so. The Izoard is a fitting end to the climbing in this year's race, with a 25km  brute that gets harder and harder the further up the climb they go with most of the last 6kms being around 10%. It could be a day for the break, but with it being the last summit finish of the race I think the GC men will be fighting this one out, possibly in an attempt to settle the Top 10 in GC. 

Stage 17 Review

Well Roglic only went and done it today, the one day I decide not to back him..! Ah well, was good to see him take it, he looks something special that can possibly win short and long stage races in the future, possibly even the Tour de France. He can climb, he can TT, he just needs to add experience and consistency. I think we were desperately unlucky with Bauke Mollema though, I genuinely think we had a chance of a winner, had Trek and Contador not tried to pull off the great escape. It was ballsy by Contador, it was impressive to watch, but I knew as soon as he started to bridge that our Mollema bet was toast - he had even traded down to 10/1 in play already after he had got in the break. We also had Navarro in the break and he rode great all day too, but just didn't have the legs in the end. 

If you were following me on twitter today though you'd have seen that I started laying Contador at 3.0, then at various prices down to 2.02 as I was sure that he would not have the legs to make it. That worked out pretty good, I hedged a half a point back at 10/1 when he drifted out again as Roglic rode away from him and in to the distance. We were also unlucky with Uran, I was right that he would be best of the GC men in a GC men's sprint, unfortunately they had let Roglic slip the net, and I had only recommended him as win-only. Maybe some of you backed him each-way at 12/1 and made a few quid anyway. 

But we had a great day on the matchbets again, with them all winning to land us a total profit of 4.6pts today, making it 25pts in the last two days. It was a disastrous day for Quickstep again, and Kittel's Green Jersey backers were left cursing their luck as he crashed out of the race today. So Michael Matthews, who was 5/1 only a few days ago, is 1/5 now and looks like all he has to do is get to the finish to win it. It has been a dreadfully unlucky race for the Green Jersey wearers, and sprinters in general, with Sagan, Démare, Kittel, Cavendish and McLay all going home. It's going to be a much reduces sprint we see on the Champs on Sunday and Greipel and Bouhanni must be licking their lips. 

But what a strange stage it was behind - Bardet and Martin tried at least, Uran just sat and marked.. He must be either planning something big tomorrow, or he really fancies himself for the TT. He followed every move with ease today and never looked under pressure, I'm surprised he didn't try at least one tester.. Aru was the big loser, he was struggling all the way up the Galibier and was unable to stay with the repeated attacks. He eventually lost 31" and slipped from 2nd to 4th, swapping places with Uran.

Simon Yates was also struggling today and lost time to Meintjes, but he still has a reasonably comfortable lead in the White jersey competition. Dan Martin was dropped by Froome's group on the descent which is very disappointing for him, as he had looked strong and active on the climb and deserved better than that. He did move up one place above Yates though to 6th.  

The Route

They start out from Briancon, the highest city in France and head south and south-west on rolling roads for 70kms, passing the Cat 3 Cote des Demoiselles Coiffées (3,9kms at 5.2%) and after 70kms they start climbing again, and the road goes up for the next 60kms as they head towards the Col de Vars. The road start climbing gently at first, rising for 50kms at 1.3%, but then kicks up for the last 9.3kms for the categorised (Cat 1) section of the Col de Vars at an average of 7.5%.

That 7.5% is a bit deceptive too though in that the first 4.5kms are done at an average of 5.9% but then kicks up for the last 5kms at 8.5% with 2kms at over 10%. A 20kms descent takes them to the final big climb of the race, the HC Izoard, 30kms in total from when they start climbing again. Again, like the Vars it starts gently but gets harder as the climb goes on, with the last 7kms being particularly hard. averaging well over 8%, with just a little interruption with just under 3kms to go where it descends for 700m before rising at over 10% for the last 1500m.  

Contenders and Favourites

So the final mountain, but only the third summit finish of the race.. The previous two have been won by Fabio Aru and Romain Bardet, two of the strongest guys in the race. Well, in Aru's case he has not exactly kicked on and in fact has looked tired in the last few days, culminating in him getting dropped several times today by the Froome group.

How do we think tomorrow is going to pan out then? The GC men are surely going to be going for it tomorrow again, the last summit finish of the race is a big prize and surely Froome and Bardet have their eyes on it. Froome, as he has not won a stage yet, and has not really stamped his authority on this race, Bardet as he knows he is one of the strongest climbers here, and needs to take a minute or more off of Froome before the TT, and Uran likewise.

 But the break will also have their eyes on this stage - but it's a far different start to the stage than today's - it's basically flat for more or less 100kms, so it will not be as easy for climbers to get away and we might see rouleur types getting involved as well as the climbers. It could take a long while for the break to go and we could see a large break go again. But a lot of guys put in a lot of effort today in that break, the kinds of guys that are coming to the top in this final week. Thomas de Gendt had a hard day, hard to see him go again. Same with Primoz Roglic - although he made it look easy today, he is surely tired after that performance and it will be hard to see him go again. Although he could still win the KOM with the amount of points available tomorrow, but that is a massive ask for him to take all the points tomorrow. 

Jarlinson Pantano and Bauke Mollema buried themselves for Contador today, all to no avail. Maybe Mollema might still have some power left in the legs, he has been going so well, and maybe he can hide away in the bunch until the Izoard and then give it full gas for the last 45mins. Darwin Atapuma finally surfaced in this race, we've not seen him all race, and suddenly he was in with a chance of winning today. But it's unlikely we'll see him a second day in a row. BMC look weak, Roche, Moinard and Wyss all got in the break today and did nothing.

AG2R - what are they going to do tomorrow? They sent Frank and Gautier in the break today but by the time Bardet came up to Frank, Frank was dead and could do nothing for Bardet. Vuillermoz worked to look after Bardet today and still finished in 19th place, less than 5 minutes behind the Froome group. Maybe they might send him in the break tomorrow instead, he might be one of the best climbers on a finish like this should the break make it.

But it's hard to make a case for too many other guys, there's a lot of tired guys out there. Instead though, I think Sky, AG2R and Cannondale will help to keep the break in check with a 4-5 mins advantage, which they will halve on the Col de Vars. I'm not sure we'll see too many attacks on the Vars, it's still 50kms to go from the top, it will be hard to hold off Sky for that long.

Instead, I think the break will be reeled in in the first 10kms of the final climb and it will be all to play for amongst the GC men in the final 4kms. Chris Froome is the 3/1 favourite for the stage, and as good as Froome is, and as likely as it is that he will try to come away from this race with an iconic stage victory, I'm not sure he'll be able to. I think Uran, Bardet, Barguil and maybe even Martin can stay with his attacks this year, and it's likely that he'll be outsprinted by a few of the others too.

And those others could be Rigo Uran again and Romain Bardet. Rigo has the beating of him in a sprint finish and Uran has been matching him without a problem so far in this race. He's also a great tactician and knows where to position himself perfectly. I like Uran for tomorrow again. Romain Bardet is similar, but there's also the possibilty that Bardet goes crazy tomorrow and goes for broke. He's got a 26" buffer over Aru in 4th and there's no guarantee that Aru won't lose more time tomorrow when it all kicks off, and Bardet needs time on Froome and Uran ahead of the TT. If he has Vuillermoz up the road he could go early on the final climb, Vuillermoz would be a great help for a few kilometres. 

Dan Martin rode very well on the climbs today and he'll be glad there are no descents to the finish tomorrow, it's all uphill. Again, he may be given a little bit of rope seeing as he's so far down, but with just over a minute separating him and Landa, Landa is sure to keep the pressure on at the front, and may even attack after him in order to control it. But Dan also has a chance if it comes to a GC sprint finish, maybe he needs to just reign in the attacks tomorrow and shadow, he's unlikely to make up any more places on the GC, he'd be better off trying for a stage win to come away with. We saw again today how great he is on an uphill finish, he danced away from the rest of the guys he was with. This 10% finish will suit him down to the ground. 

But Landa is another one that I have a feeling might do something tomorrow.. With Froome a comfortable distance away now in the GC, Landa might be given the freedom to attack in the last 4kms, the other GC men might look at each other and look at Froome and decide not to go after Landa straight away. And he has been so strong in this race, he might not be pulled back again. It would be a good way for Froome to reward him for his work in the race. 

Aru looks cooked, unless he gets a special bag from Vino tonigiht, I can't see him winning tomorrow, and Yates, Meintjes and Caruso look held as well. Warren Barguil rode brilliantly again today, he finished the stage with the GC men with his right elbow all bandaged up after coming down in the same crash as Kittel early in the race. He too might have a go again tomorrow, but he's too short for me again at just 10/1, since his win against some of the worst sprinters in the world last week he has been well beaten in finishes since. 

So it looks like coming down to a GC battle on the final climb of the race I think, and it will be hard to see much separating the top 7 in the GC. Froome will attack a few times, Bardet will attack a few times, Uran may even throw in a dig as it's the last uphill finish. But it could all come down to a sprint like today, and Uran can take it to grab 10 bonus seconds. Unless that is Dan Martin or Landa haven't managed to escape before then. 

Recommendations:

1pt win on Mikel Landa at 9/1 with PP

0.2pts each-way on Alexis Vuillermoz at 80/1 with various

2pts win on Rigo Uran at 7.6 on Betfair

0.5pts each-way on Dan Martin at 18/1 with various

Match Bets 

Barguil to beat Contador, Vuillermoz to beat Frank and Martin to beat Aru - 2pts on the treble at 5/2 with Will Hill 

Add Meintjes to beat Yates to make it a four-fold - 1pt at 3.9/1 with Will Hill

Uran to beat Bardet - 2pts at 6/5 with Will Hill