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Published on Thursday, 20 July 2017 22:48

TDF 2016 Stage 20

Marseille to Marseille

Saturday 22nd July, 23kms

A time trial one stage from the finish, it could have been the decider of the race, but that's unlikely now given the lead Froome holds over inferior time triallists. It's not too long, or too short but it could still shake up some of the top 10 placings.

It may be short, but this is going to be a very tricky stage. Although there are lots of long stretches for the TT men to put the power down, there are lots and lots of bends and turns.. I count around 40 in total, which just disrupts the rhythm and the speed, neutralising it a little bit away from the pure time triallists. It's mostly flat, but has a little kick up for 1.2kms with 14.4kms gone at Notre Dame de la Garde, that is also going to disrupt the rhythm of the pure time triallists, as they'll be switching down to the small ring as the gradient averages 9.5%. 

And a time trial coming on the second last day of a hard Tour is going to change the outcome for some too. Some riders have put a lot in over the last three weeks - Vasil Kiryienka and Michal Kwiatkowski for example, while others have been hiding away and not doing a whole lot other than get around, waiting for a crack at this stage. Some riders will be out on their feet from even just doing that, and may not want, or be able to go in to the red too much, whereas others have something to ride for and will raise their efforts. 

Stage 19 Review

Well that could have been so much better. I can't believe that I picked the 9/1 winner and still came out losing on the stage. I nailed most of the guys in the break, I called that they would stay away, and had two of the strongest-looking guys in the last 8 coming to the last 3kms. Bakelants had been very active and attentive, but when Boasson-Hagen and Arndt went down the right of that roundabout and the rest of them went down the left and lost 10m, it was all over. It was superb out of Eddie B, he simply rode Arndt off his wheel once they got the gap. 

But the problem was the matchbets - they all tanked thanks to the fact that none of the sprinters fought out the finish, and of course, where they rolled in in the finish went against us. Swift killed us early in the MB with Colbrelli by getting in the break, thankfullly EBH mitigated some of the damage. And as for the late bet this morning, I'm only hoping that most of you missed that and actually came out just a few points down. It's annoying to pick the winner of the stage but still lose a 3-day profitable streak. 

The Route

They start and finish in almost the exact same spot at either side of the famous Velodrome in Marseille. They head towards the coast and after heading south for a little loop they turn back and head north along the coast before taking a loop around the Vieux Port. With just over 10kms to go they head back south again, this time zig-zagging through the old town, climbing up and over the Notre-Dame de La Garde, a 1.2km ramp at 9.5% after 14.4kms. They then descend for 2kms before rejoining the coastal road on the other side of the road with 4.8kms to go. From there it's more or less straight roads for the last 4.8kms, with just two roundabouts to negotiate. 

The 1.2km climb could be what separates a lot of these guys from each other - besides Froome, a lot of the guys at the top of the GC are pretty poor time triallists, and pretty similar in ability. The climb could be what makes a 10-20" difference between some and could decide GC places. 

The weather looks like it's going to be hot, around 28 degrees, with no rain. There is a steady wind of 10-11mph all afternoon, coming at them from the south-west, meaning it will be a crosswind as they skirt along the coastline, but it should affect all the riders pretty equally from what I can see, maybe getting a mile an hour stronger in the afteroon for the late starters. 

Contenders and Favourites

Chris Froome has been installed as the 5/6 favourite with Paddy Power when they opened their book on Thursday evening. I wasn't sure how they would price him up, and I must say that's a little on the shorter side of what I was expecting, but he does have a great chance of taking the stage alright. He's not won a stage yet and his victory in this year's race is a little hollow, it's probably been the most boring victory of one of the most boring Tours I can remember. I'm sure he wanted to win on Izoard on Thursday, but that wasn't to be, so he's not won a coveted mountain stage this year.

He has some strong claims though to take this stage. He is clearly very strong - not as strong as in previous years maybe, but still strong enough to just defend his lead against his rivals. He is good at these long TTs late in Tours though, in the Vuelta last year in stage 19, he beat Castroviejo by 44" over 37kms, with Ludvigsson 1'24" back in 3rd.. He looks perfectly suited to this course too with long flat stretches and the 1.2km climb at 9.6%. He will sprint up that faster than all the other TT contenders and will probably descend down the other side faster than most of them too.

Unlike Thomas, I don't think Froome was going full gas in that first TT for fear of coming down, but he still finished in 6th place, just 12" down on his team-mate, but more significantly, 35" faster than his closest GC rival, Richie Porte. He won't take any risks, but he's surely going to be going flat out in this to win. 

Primoz Roglic has had a Tour to remember, he was very active in this race, getting in some breaks and almost pulling off the win on stage 15, but they had let Mollema escape and he was even beaten to a place, finishing in 4th. He made up for it though with his stunning stage win to Serre Chevalier on Wednesday, he was incredibly strong that day. Roglic has unfinished business with TTs in this race, he was one of four LottoJ riders to crash in the first TT in Dusseldorf and finished way down in 65th place, when starting as one of the favourites. The course will suit him quite well, it's not too long or too short, has lots of turns that he can accelerate out of quicker than someone like Martin or Kiryienka and the hill will suit him more than others.

He won the hilly TT in the Tour of Romandie earlier this year, beating Porte, Van Garderen, Castroviejo and Froome, but that had a very different profile to this. And how will he cope after three weeks of racing? It looked for a while like he might go after the KOM jersey, he was one of the top 3 favourites for it for a while, but he didn't have the legs early on in the race but has come strong in recent stages. He took Thursday off in the bunch, relaxing and joking instead of joining the 53-strong group that went away, and had another rest day Friday, so he could be ready to go hard for this. 3/1 is just too short for a decent e/w bet to nothing, I think he will almost certainly be in the top 3. 

Tony Martin couldn't even land a top 3 place in the first TT, a very disappointing result from the World Champion. He started slowly and never really picked up, finishing 8" behind the surprise winner Geraint Thomas. He was also beaten by young pretender Stefan Kung and old man Vasil Kiryienka, but I suppose looking back in hindsight, the warning signs were there, that despite winning the German nationals TT, he had been beaten in every TT he has entered this year. 

He has started to look a lot stronger though in the last week, his attack off the front of the break in Sunday's stage was super impressive, he quickly put 1'30" between him and the big break he was a part of in an effort to get enough of a buffer before hitting the final climb. It wasn't enough though as he was passed by Mollema and Barguil and co, but he showed he has good legs and may be getting stronger as others are tiring. The hill might be his undoing though, he will crawl up that compared to some others. 

Stefan Kung came very close to winning on stage 1, but since then, we've barely seen him. He has done nothing really and may well have just been hiding himself away for three weeks in anticipation of this final test. He did brilliantly in the first stage though to finish 2nd, one of the best TT performances of his career. It's been a tough Tour though and BMC have had a disappointing race, I'm not sure what sort of form Kung will be in at the end of these three weeks, can we trust him at just 10/1? 

Jonathan Castroviejo has had a relatively easy Tour compared to what it could have been like, no Valverde or Quintana challenging has meant that the rest of the Movistar support team have barely been seen this race. But will that mean he has more energy than others for this final TT? He was very disappointing though for us in the first TT, finishing down in 15th position, maybe it was the wet conditions spoiled the Spaniard's chances, he is surely going to fare better than that this time around? He won the Spanish TT champs a few weeks back on a hilly course over 43kms, he seems to need a slightly longer course to get going. The hill won't inconvenience a Spanish Movistar rider too much either, and he has done well in TTs at the end of a Grand Tour, his 2nd to Froome in the Vuelta last year springs to mind. I don't like losing twice on a rider who let us down previously, but at 25/1 he might be worth a small interest e/w.

Rigo Uran is fighting for 2nd now with Romain Bardet, he has just 6" to make up on him and it is pretty likely he will do so. That motivation is sure to have him riding the TT of his life here. Once upon a time Rigo won a TT in the Giro (2014) in the vineyards of the Barolo region I think it was, but since then he has been a bit of a disaster in TTs, whether it was lack of form, lack of motivation or lack of interest, he has been appalling in TTs since, averaging around 50th place. I can't see him troubling the top 3 in this, despite how strong he has looked in this race this year, but he should make up more than enough time to pass out Bardet for 2nd. 

Vasil Kiryienka has worked hard this Tour for his leader, pulling at the front in the earlier skirmishes, keeping breaks under control before the mountain goats have taken over. We've seen him peel to the side and almost come to a standstill, he had expended so much energy on some of the climbs, so what kind of shape can we expect to see him in for this TT? The thing about pulling early and then pulling over though is that he can then roll to the finish at his leisure, without fear of missing the timecut, and he'll have an easy day Friday to recover too, so he might do a good TT, but I'm thinking 5th to 10th for him. 

Michal Kwiatkowski was dead on his feet on Thursday when he pulled over, he had gone so deep he actually had to stop when he pulled over, he must have been almost blind with the pain. I'm not sure he'll be able to go too hard in this stage so I'm going to pass over him. Maciej Bodnar could do a big ride at 200/1, he has a lot of power and Bora will be pushing for a good result here from him. Michael Matthews and some of the other sprinters who did well in the first TT will not do so well on a longer TT with a hill like this, and besides, he'll be saving his legs for tomorrow. He opened at a crazy 500/1 with PP, but that lasted minutes, he's now 66/1.. 500/1 was worth a shot, 66/1 isn't. 

So I'm publishing this nice and early on Thursday evening, but I'm still thinking about whether to have a large bet on Froome or not.. I want to back Roglic too but I may go for a place bet on him, he'll probably be around 4/6 to place I'd reckon. In the meantime, I think I'll take a little bit of Castroviejo at 25/1 e/w for now.

Update, 18:00 - Well, I've been thinking about this all day now, and I think Roglic could be the value at 3/1 over Froome.. but then when I looked at it just now I see Froome has been pushed out to evens and the 3/1 is now 9/4...  So others feel the same way I guess. But he is being backed on betfair and is now in to under 2/1 to lay, with 13/8 being taken - so take the 9/4 as soon as you can if you fancy Roglic.. What I also just spotted is that PP are going 1/3 the odds for the first two only, so that 3/1 would have effectively been a shot to nothing on the each-way. There's still not a lot else interests me, the whole peloton more or less had a day off today, but I still can't really see any miracles happening. 

One interesting thing I did hear today though - I was chatting with my man in the Cannondale squad and he had diverging views on how Uran will do tomorrow. His words exactly were "I don't think he'll do a great TT. I recon he'll be third on the podium. Just because he's been going real bad ever since on Cannondale TT bike" And when I mentioned the course has a lot of twists and turns he added "And the brakes on the Cannondale bike are shit". Now if you add in the fact that Bardet beat him by 12" in the first TT, then there might be an opportunity here for a sneaky bet on Bardet to finish 2nd to Froome, Uran is the hot favourite with the bookies, but he might just get turned over if my man is right.. a longish shot maybe, and we're relying on his view on this, but it's a pretty good line of thinking for a crack at this.. 

Recommendations:

0.3pts e/w on Jonathan Castroviejo at 25/1 with PP

3pts win on Roglic at 9/4 with PP

2pts win on Bardet in the 'Without Froome' market at 9/4 with Bet365 or 3.4 on Betfair, there's still some left to take, I've taken some. 

Match Bets 

Kiryienka to beat Kwiatkowski, Dan Martin to beat Aru and Castroviejo to beat Cummings - 2pts on the treble at 5/2 with Will Hill 

Sutterlin to beat Bodnar and Matthews to beat Boason Hagen - 2pts at 11/8 with 365