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Published on Tuesday, 18 July 2017 22:12

TDF 2017 Stage 17

La Mure to Serre Chevalier 

Wed July 19th, 183kms 

A stage with a trilogy of mythical TDF climbs on a tough day that could make or break some challengers hopes, possibly for good with just four stages left. The Croix de Fer, Col du Telegraph and Col de Galibier will produce a spectacular day of action.

This race is still incredibly close, and there's really only two chances for Froome's rivals to make time on him ahead of Saturday's TT - this stage, and Thursday's summit finish to Izoard. His rivals need to attack him today, if they wait until Izoard it will probably be too late, he will just mark the attacks and come home happy knowing he will destroy them all in the TT on Saturday.

And it there ever was a stage to test Froome and Sky it is this one. 24kms of climbing on the Croix de Fer, followed by 45kms of climbing on the Telegraphe/Galibier, AG2R, Aru, Martin and Uran have to put them under relentless pressure and see what happens. They have been creaking and straining so far in this race, but have survived with just minor scares so far. If anyone other than Froome wants to win this race, they have to strike now, and strike hard. Make Froome do the chasing, wear out his support men. Attack on the descents, attack on the ascents. Even if they can't make significant time today, if they can break him and Sky a little, they could finish the job tomorrow.

Easier said than done though - as I said, they have emerged so far from a number of scares and skirmishes still in yellow and still relatively unscathed. Nieve, Henao, Landa and Kwiatkowski still look to be going strong, although there were a number of interesting looking confrontations between Froome and some of his team-mates after his mechanical on Sunday. Landa has thrown a few comments around on the rest day saying that he will not come back to a Grand Tour as a 'number 2' and that if Contador attacks, he is going to follow him, that is his job. If Contador attacks, and Landa goes with him early on in this stage, it could get very interesting indeed. Landa can still win this race, will Froome and the others chase him down?

 Stage 16 Review

Now that's what I'm talking about! That stage could not have worked out any better from the main selections point of view, I called it pretty spot on with how it played out and we got the best result possible too with Matthews beating EBH and Degenkolb to the line. The first double came in too at 9/10, but unfortunately Vanspeybrouck was one of those blown out the back door and blew the second double and the fourfold. It was nearly a 30+pt day, instead I'll settle for +20.5pts for the blog, but I had a great day too laying Kittle win and place, I didn't think he had a chance today. I still can't believe the money that was coming for Kittel, even when he was 45" back on the peloton, people were still piling hundreds of pounds on him at 4 and 5/1. 

And what a stage it turned out to be - transition stage?! Not a chance of it.. It was flat out from the first metres again, with a strong looking break going with Thomas de Gendt, Steve Cummings and Sylvain Chavanel involved, but with Sunweb keeping the pressure on at the front, they never got more than about 35" lead. Then, as expected, Marcel Kittel started to struggle and went out the back door and popped out to 10/1 on Betfair. He dangled at about 20" for a while, the commentators made out that he was about to get back in, and suddenly he was back in to 5/2 again. But he never did make the junction, and the gap just kept growing, thanks to the power by Sunweb, Lotto Soudal and Dimension Data at the front. 

Full marks to Sunweb though, they had a plan, and they executed it to perfection, even Matthews finish was impressive, so confident in the last 200m, he was looking around himself for dangers. Degenkolb took umbrage with his errant line though and hit him after the stage, but I don't think he has a whole lot to complain about. 

If Sunweb were the team of the day with that move, then Quickstep were the clowns of the day. In leaving the majority of their team, including the powerhouses Julian Vermote and Zdenek Stybar, with Marcel Kittel, Dan Martin was caught out in the crosswinds and ended up losing 51" by the finish, undoing all the hard work he has done over the last few stages. It was pathetic from Quickstep to allow that to happen, it's like they couldn't care less about Martin's chances in the GC, isolating him like that - the whole world knew that Kittel was going to struggle on that opening 30kms. 

Mikel Landa and Simon Yates have now leap-frogged above Martin, who has slipped 2 places to 7th in the GC. Matthews took 50pts today towards the Green, he is now just 29pts behind Kittel, it could all come down to the wire on the Champs on Sunday. 

The Route

Starting out from La Mure, a start town for the first time in the TDF, the road starts out flat for the first 25kms and as they turn and start heading north they first hit the Cat 2 Col d'Ormon (5.1kms at 6.7%), then the first intermediate sprint at Allemont after 47kms. 

The climb up to the Col de la Croix de Fer is 24kms in total from the bottom of the valley, at an average of 5.2%, but it comes in three waves with little dips downhill after 7kms and 17kms. The section from 9-13kms  is the hardest, averaging over 10%, and the last 4kms average 6.7%. A 30km descent is followed by a false flat for 15kms and then they start the double ascent of the Col du Telegraphe and the Col du Galibier.

They start the Telegraphe after 120kms, and the Cat 1 climb is a legendary climb in the TDF, averaging 7.1% over 11.9kms at a very steady gradient. They then descend for 5kms before starting straight on to the Galibier. The Galibier is a brute, 17.7kms at an average of 6.9%, but it starts out steady enough with 10kms at an average of 5.5%, but the last 8kms are a nasty 8.5% average, with the last 2kms averaging 9.5%. From the top there's just 18kms to the finish, all downhill, just leveling out a little for the last 2kms before the line. 

Contenders and Favourites

This is a little like a longer version of Stage 13 to Foix, the 100km stage with three tough climbs along the way. But this is that stage turned up to 11... Instead of 100kms, it's 185kms, almost twice its length.. And instead of three Cat 1s, we have two HCs, one Cat 1 and one Cat 2. And it's a 28km descent to the finish.. quite a long way to hang on if you're off the front solo.

It's probably going to take 25kms for the break to go, the opening 15kms or so are pretty flat, but then the road starts to rise and they start on the Cat 2 Col d'Ornon after 25kms. That should see the move of the day go, and we'll have our usual contenders involved you'd imagine. Warren Barguil can make it mathematically certain today that he will become the first Frenchman since Richard Virenque to take the KOM, and the way he's been climbing this year I wouldn't be surprised to see him come close to Virenque's record of seven KOM jerseys, he's still only 25 after all.

He's sure to be involved, he'll take the Cat 2, maybe the HC Croix de Fer and it may be job done by that stage. And that's why I'm a bit reluctant to back him to win the stage, we saw on Sunday that he was knackered when he got to the finish after working for KOM points all day and couldn't muster the strong sprint that landed victory for him just a few days prior. But on the other hand, if he has a team-mate or two with him, and he decides to sit in after the Croix de Fer and save energy, as the jersey should be safe, then he could have a chance of attacking again on the Galibier when his companions are tired and he could solo to victory.. But at 8/1 I'm not sure I want to be on him. 

As the start of the stage isn't too hard, with that Cat 2 climb the only real difficulty for the first 50kms, we could see a large break go, with Michael Matthews probably involved with Tens Dam, Geschke, Curvers and Barguil possibly alongside, in an attempt to get over the Cat 2 and take the interemediate sprint in the valley. It could be another power-packed start from Sunweb.. 

Likely candidates for the break will be the likely lads that we have seen a bit of lately, the stronger men come to the fore in the last week of a Grand Tour and if the combination is right, and the GC men let them have some rope, then they might just get a big enough lead that they are not reeled in. 

So look to BMC to try to make up for the disaster that their race has been so far.. Greg Van Avermaet raced with his head up his ass again today, starting the sprint from way too far out and getting swamped by the rest with 200m to go. They are sure to try to get 2 or 3 guys up the road again, so look for De Marchi, Roche and Moinard to try, I think Caruso will not be let go now that he is in 9th place with the unfortunate withdrawal of George Bennett. Alessandro De Marchi was working for Caruso last Sunday and died towards the end, if he's left do his own thing tomorrow he might have a chance at 125/1. 

Serge Pauwels tried valiantly to go after Bauke Mollema on Sunday, he was looking one of the strongest of the break, but just couldn't get there, didn't have the legs to close it. He might try again, he's only 33/1 though. But what about Bauke Mollema? He is looking super strong at the moment and you almost forget that he was hammering up Ventoux with Porte and Froome last year when they smashed in to the back of the motorbike..

Mollema is a class act, who has been a GC contender in the past. But now with the freedom to attack and the pressure of GC off his shoulders, he showed Sunday why he should never be underestimated and forgotten. He's superb at sneaking away at the right moment, is a solid, powerful climber, and can descend/TT to the finish like he did on Sunday. He was looking strong again today too, working for Contador, and I wouldn't be surprised if they were to send him up the road in anticipation for the inevitable Contador attack.. But the Contador attack may not work, and he'll be free to keep riding. I want to be on him, he's one of my favourite riders after good wins on him in the past, I don't want to miss out if he wins again!

Nicholas Edet has started to get involved in breaks, but I don't think he's good enough for a stage like this, I also think a stage at altitude like this will rule out the likes of Roglic, Ulissi, Gallopin and Benoot.  Thibaut Pinot might be worth a small investment, he seems to be coming around, he was in the break on Sunday too but didn't really get involved in the later skirmishes.. maybe he was keeping something in reserve for a day like this.. I'm going to have a small win bet on him in the 40s on Betfair, or the 33/1 with Bet365 is ok too. Liliane Calmejane rode well on Sunday, but couldn't go with the Mollema move, he did stay on to take 7th though, leading home a small group 1'04" after Mollema, so he's going well still. He might have another go tomorrow, he's 70s on Betfair, or 66/1 with 365. Daniel Navarro finished 13th on Sunday, he's big looking at 150/1 with Ladbrokes

So that's enough with the break picks, what chance have they got though? Well I give them a pretty good chance.. it depends on what's going to happen with the GC men.. It's a real conundrum - what tactics are Sky and Sky's rivals going to employ? Sky could play the Landa card early on, sending him up the road with the likes of Contador and Quintana again, forcing the other teams to work from early in the stage. Froome knows he can give Landa the yellow jersey by possibly up to 90" lead and still take it back off him in the TT. So they will possibly let him go out, let the likes of AG2R and Cannondale work to control it, but if they are not pulling them back quick enough, the Sky train and Froome will probably start working to limit his advantage.

If it is a case that the others start attacking Froome behind and he's struggling, then they have Landa up the road and he could take yellow and hang on to it, none of the others behind him are particularly good TTers. And of course Froome could finally turn on the power and blow them all away - but he hasn't looked like doing so yet in this race, in fact he has looked under more pressure than I have seen him in the Tour in many years. His rivals will need to test him, they need to go on the Telegraphe and try to get rid of as many of his support riders as possible, a lot of the weight of that will probably rest with AG2R, and if they ride as well as they did on Sunday, Froome could be in for a rough afternoon. 

But I have a feeling that we will see punch and counter punch, but Froome, Landa, Bardet, Uran, Martin and Yates will be in a group that comes to the finish together. That is, unless someone like Dan Martin or Simon Yates tries to do something to break up that group. Dan Martin has revenge in mind again, and we know he's probably going to attack. And what's good from his point of view is that he tweeted tonight that he can finally stand up straight and 'there are hills coming up #gameon #fighttotheend' - so he clearly hasn't given up. He may be given some leeway what with his timeloss today and while the others look at each other, but it will be a big ask to stay clear over the final 28kms.. what he needs is for a few remnants of the break to be about a minute ahead of him on the Galibier, he attacks, bridges and then rides with them to the finish. Then he'd have a chance from the sprint. 

Something similar from Simon Yates - he was looking very strong today, pulling the break at the front when he heard that Meintjes was off the back. He also attacked on the final climb on Sunday, he has looked eager to go and he needs to make up a minute on Landa to take 5th place. Fabio Aru might attack, but I'm not sure he's going to be able to get away, Froome and Bardet will chase him and they are two of the strongest men in the group, plus, they could have team-mates with them like Landa or Vuillermoz to help with the chasing. 

And what about Contador and Quintana? Can they try something tomorrow again? I wouldn't put it past Contador to try something but he had a tough day again today and Pantano hit the deck, so his right-hand man is possibly going to be a bit out of it tomorrow. I wouldn't be surprised to see him attacking on the Croix de Fer and if he can have a few guys up the road to bridge to, he might make the stage very interesting indeed. If Quintana can go with him, all the better. If not, Quintana could also try something on the Galibier, the high altitude of the Galibier is right up his street, if his legs are feeling any better. 

But if it comes to a GC group finish, I'd like to be on Uran, he has the best sprint as far as I can see out of this lot and he might just land the sprint. A 10" bonus could lift him on to a podium place ahead of Bardet. 

So the break might make it, we'll try to have a few in that, but if it looks like coming back, maybe look for in-play bets and let's have Uran onside as well in case. 

Recommendations:

0.5pts win on Liliane Calmejane at 66/1 with Bet365

0.3pts win on Thibaut Pinot at 44 on Betfair or 40/1 with Ladbrokes

0.4pts win on Bauke Mollema at 36 on Betfair

0.2pts win on Alessandro de Marchi at 130s on Betfair 

0.2pts win on Daniel Navarro at 150/1 with Ladbrokes

1pt win on Rigo Uran at 12/1 with Betfair or 10/1 with 365

Matchbets

Uran to beat Froome, 2pts at 11/10

Mollema to beat Betancur - 2pts at 5/4 with Bet365

Landa to beat Meintjes and Vuillermoz to beat Latour - 2pts at 5/4