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Published on Thursday, 13 July 2017 23:10

TDF 2017 Stage 13

Saint-Girons to Foix

Fri 14th July, 100kms 

Up until now it has seemed that nearly every stage was around the 215km mark, a good long test, but boring to watch for most of it. Not this one.. A coffee-ride distance of 100kms, three cols in 45kms, it's going to be explosive.. 

A Bastille day firework this could be, it's just a shame that it isn't on Saturday instead so the whole world could have relaxed and watched it from start to finish, but the French on their national day will enjoy it in its entirety, and those of us sneaking a peak at work or taking a day off. At full pelt this should take them less than 2 1/2 hours - make sure you watch the whole stage as it will be exciting and fascinating to watch to see the breaks trying to form and to see if the GC men try to shake the tree from early in the stage. I think it could almost be like a junior race - similar distance and the racing should be wild from start to finish!

The stage as planned was thrown in to jeopardy on the 2nd June when a major storm caused huge damage to the road going over the Col d'Agnes, with massive landslides of rocks and mud cutting off a large section of the road, but it's all been repaired and we're good to go. It's a stage that several guys will have had marked out for a break, they might have hidden away on stage 12 in order to save the legs and give this a real blast today..

Stage 12 Review

The race certainly came to life today! We now have a new leader, with Fabio Aru having taken the race lead off a sub-par Chris Froome. Our picks finished 1st, 4th and 6th, it could have been a very good day indeed, but we'll settle for the 5.3pts win and a nice move in the KOM market for Barguil, who is now 1/3 to take the title. Romain Bardet was brilliant, I didn't expect him to win like that, but we'll take that 12/1 winner happily. He is still right in the hunt for this race, with Froome looking vulnerable, he has a real shot of still winning this race. 

Fabio Aru was good too, but just couldn't stay with Bardet, but his 3rd place was enough to put him in to yellow. It has seen a shift in the winner's market for Froome who jumped out to over evens from 1/3 last night, but has settled back down to around 9/10 now. Aru is a big danger to him now for sure, so is Romain Bardet, but Rigo Uran and Dan Martin are still in this race too. It's just such a shame that Dan Martin crashed on Sunday, he'd be in 4th right now, but more importantly he'd only be 25" down, 1" off of 3rd place.

He said after today's stage that he was in agony from the first kilometre and after 50kms he felt so bad that he thought he would finish an hour down, but luckily for him, his legs came around as he said. The fact he was coming there up the outside with 500m to go and getting me very excited for our chances is just tantamount to how well he is going at the moment, he shouldn't have been involved in the finish. 

Some matchbets won, but it was disappointing to lose the treble, as Vuillermoz pulled off a fantastic ride to finish in 15th place, a great result for him, the other two in the treble won. Steve Cummings almost had his supporters celebrating, going solo from an earlier break ,to ride a lot of the race solo, I layed 4pts of Cummings at 4.3 average in-play, I didn't think he had a chance of staying away, but when Nieve and Froome went straight on and in to a camper-van group it gave him a decent gap back again and Cummings was backed in to around 7/4.. A great price to lay him at.. Meintjes and Yates pulled off two superb rides too to finish in the main group, they are the future, while Contador and Quintana are the past and it's painful to watch two Grand Tour champion fall from grace like this.

Three out of the top 4 in the GC have won stages now too, we weren't wrong when we said it could be one of the most open races in many years. It's still all to play for in the Alps, but first we have the small matter of this crazy stage tomorrow which could see a further shake up in the GC.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           

The Route

A start in the lovely town of Saint Girons, a finish in Foix just 44kms away by the fastest route, on a day spent entirely in the Ariege departement. They head south and start climbing gently straight away, passing the intermediate sprint very early in the stage after just 13.5kms at Seix. 

The road carries on heading south-east and after 25.5kms they hit the first Cat 1 of the day, the Col de Latrape (5.6kms at 7.3%). A very short 4 minute descent and straight on to the Col d'Agnes, another Cat 1 that's a lot harder at 10kms at 8.2%, with parts around 9.3% in the first 3kms. Another short 12 minute descent and they start climbing again.. there really is almost no break at all between the climbs. The final climb of the day is the Cat 1 Mur de Peguere, which is 9.3kms at 7.9%, but hits gradients of 18% in the final 3.5km which average a back-breaking 12.2%!

From there it's downhill heading east all the way to the finish for the last 26kms. We should get some sort of regrouping on the way down, and possibly a reduced group sprint at the finish. That is unless the break have somehow managed to stay away from a charging bunch of GC men determined to rip the race to shreds. 

Contenders and Favourites

This should be wild.. should be, let's hope they don't let us down and nullify it. And by THEY I meant when I first started writing this a few days ago, the Skybots of course. I was worried that they could kill today's stage by riding hard from the start, it's not that long a stage, so they could keep breaks within a manageable limit and try to pull it back together on the Mur de Peguere or on the descent to the finish. But that has all changed now with the passing of the jersey to Aru and Astana - Sky are no longer the team that has to do the chasing, but that's not to say they won't be pushing hard in an effort to tire out the others before the final climb. 

There might not be a lot to be got out of today's stage for Astana and Sky, they might just let a break go and ride steady. It's not a long stage and the climbs aren't overly long or difficult, so Froome should be safe enough from attacks from his rivals early in the stage.

I say Chris Froome should be safe enough from attacks, but that's not to say they won't try - it could be all-out war from the first climb if they really wanted to test and stretch team Sky, I'm looking at you AG2R and Astana.. Even you Cannondale, you have a chance here with the riders you've got to blow things up too for Uran - they are a bit flakey some of them, and not able to last a full, hard day of climbing, but this is a training spin over three relatively easy climbs.

Taylor Phinney can get up the road and be a TT relay when needed, Talansky, Rolland, Bettiol, they can all climb - if they can get 2 or 3 of them in a break and Uran tries to attack on the Agnes and joins them on the descent, they could really stir things up. The Peguere isn't all that difficult, the first 6kms average just 5.2%, the last 3.3kms average a tougher 12.2%, but nothing Rigo Uran can't handle.. That's my wild dream scenario, it might just happen, I hope something like this happens. And even if it comes to a GC sprint, we saw on Sunday that he has the beating of all of these guys in a sprint. 

Or the GC men could stay together and we could get Froome pulling a spin frenzy on the last 3kms of the Peguere and ride away from them, and then extend his lead on the 25km descent to the finish to kill it off altogether.  Based on how he rode today though I don't think he's capable of riding away from all of these guys, there are 4-5 really strong guys who can chase every attack of Froomes. Well, let's hope not, and that we go in to the Alps with a number of riders still within touching distance.

Otherwise, it might be up to AG2R as I said, to do something similar with the riders they have - Frank, Vuillermoz etc - get some in the break, they are good at that, and wait for the Bardet attack on the descent of the Agnes and TT him to the Perguere. That's a possible scenario too. Romain Bardet is only 3rd on the GC though so it will be very hard for him to get away, Froome is going to be surrounded by worker bees willing to give it all in chase of any dangerous rivals. But that's not to say they are not breakable, they faded away when the pressure came on Sunday, and today, even though they looked really good on the climbs, Sky were all over the place in the last 500m, with Froome being dropped by his team-mate Landa, who almost landed the 100/1 each-way for us.

But Bardet's team-mate Alexis Vuillermoz could be let go, he's riding really well and can put Astana and Sky under pressure by going up the road, they'll be worried about what they might be planning. But Vuillermoz would have a good chance from the break, he's good on steep climbs, we saw him win at 33/1 for us on the Mur de Bretagne a few years back, if he can get in the break, and ride away from his companions in the last 2kms of the climb they may not catch him. 

Fabio Aru could also have a chance of course of either going early on the climbs and trying an audacious long ranger, going on the Agnes and bridging to the likes of Lutsenko, or just waiting and attacking on the steepest part of the Perguere. We know that Astana and Aru are good tactically sometimes (but not last Sunday as we saw), they pulled off good moves in the past to help him win the Vuelta and also in the Dauphiné, with a move that nearly worked with Fuglsang. I thought Aru might attack today, he didn't, he was nullified by the pace of Sky, but he might give it a go tomorrow. 

And Dan Martin - heroic effort today to finish in 6th with the pain he was suffering, he hopes to get better and better and go again in the Alps. I am not sure tomorrow suits him then, it would take a huge effort to get away and stay away, or even to win the stage from a sprint, although he'd have one of the best sprints of the GC men as we know. 

Or could it finally be the day we see Movistar fight back? We've seen them pull master strokes on days like this in the past, but that was with a strong team and a strong leader, neither of which I think we have here. Quintana was hugely disappointing again today, but he could give it a go tomorrow, aided by the likes of Herrada, Castroviejo or Betancur. I'm not sure he'll gain much time, but to serve it up to the others and try to gain some pride back, it might be a start. I thought he might just be saving himself for the Alps where he'll give it a real good go before today, but now I think he just doesn't have the legs .. So instead, maybe today could be a Carlos Betancur type day finally...

Much hyped coming in to the race, what with his slimmed down figure and win in the hilly Hammer Series race, but we haven't really seen much of him at all, neither going on the attack or looking after Quintana when he needed help. But this could be a stage for him. Short and with a few tough climbs thrown in, he could infiltrate a strong break, and if he has the legs, he could well skip away from a lot of his rivals on the final section of the Perguere. He'll need a 30" or more solo gap over the top though as he will not win a sprint and anything less and he could be reeled in as they still have about 25kms to go from the top, about 14 of which are on the descent and about 10kms of which are easier, but still downhill. 

Other riders who hid themselves away on today's tough stage could also come to the fore, I'm thinking Nicholas Edet, Teisj Benoot, Primoz Roglic, Onrej Cink, Oliver Naesen, Diego Ulissi, Darwin Atapuma, Nico Roche and Thomas Voeckler - all likely candidates for a big strong break that could have a chance of staying away. Liliane Calmejane has had a few days to recover, he might go again, and Warren Barguil would dearly love to win on Bastille Day while wearing the Polka Dots.

It's uphill from the very start, gently climbing at first, but then kicks up to the first categorised climb with just 25kms gone. Diego Ulissi was in the break today but got dropped early, Damiano Caruso rode really well today but just couldn't stay with the GC men, he could go again tomorrow. Serge Pauwels said in an interview on Eurosport after the stage today that he wants to get in the break tomorrow, I'm going to include him in my picks. 

So a really hard one to call tomorrow based on that profile and distance. It could be all out war as I said and Froome and Sky could look to try to gain revenge for today, or if Froome really is starting to feel it in the legs, then there is a perfect opportunity to attack him again tomorrow on the 16% slopes of the Peguere. He struggled on those sorts of gradients today and if he struggles tomorrow a little they need to go for the jugular. If he starts to lose time on those slopes he could lose a minute by the top of the climb and may not see the others again until the finish, as it's a 23kms charge down the hill to the finish. 

If it does come to a GC men's finish, I like Uran for it, I also like Caruso, Pauwels and I'm going to have a few pennies on those I mentioned above, I'm not sure Astana will be capable of riding as hard as Sky, they had six riders who came in almost a half hour down today. And Sky might just let them at it, if Froome isn't feeling the best they might just save their legs in an effort to look after him if he struggles on the Peguere. That could well give the break a solid chance of staying away and with it being Bastille Day, look out for French riders or riders with French teams going for it - Lilian Calmejane, Guillame Martin and Daniel Navarro. 

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Rigo Uran at 14/1 with Ladbrokes

0.3pts each-way on Serge Pauwels at 33/1 with Will Hill

0.3pts each-way on Damiano Caruso at 25/1 with Bet365

0.3pts each-way on Lilian Calmejane at 22/1 with Bet365

0.5pts each-way on Alexis Vuillermoz at 33/1 with various

Matchbets:

Caruso to beat Barguil - 2pts at 6/5 (Caruso might finish with the GC group, Barguil may not)

Pauwels to beat Benoot - 3pts at 11/10 with Bet365

Landa to beat Nieve and Martin to beat Yates - 5pts at evens with Will Hill