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This is the first of two key Pyrénéan stages and could be pivotal in deciding the outcome of this race. The race dynamic has shifted once again now with Richie Porte out of the race - BMC will not be contributing to the pace setting any more, and in fact will probably be doing all they can to get something out of the race now by getting guys in the break. It will be left up to Sky, Astana and AG2R to do the chasing, Quickstep won't be offering too much help I'd say, maybe in the flatter 100kms to keep the gap short, as surely Dan Martin will have his eye on the finish and the opportunity to take back some time.

It could be a real battle to get in the break again today, lots of teams will fancy this one and we could see a similar situation to Saturday's stage when it took a very long time for the break to go - we could see another 47kmph opening hour as teams battle to get away, get pulled back, go again etc. Riders have to be very careful with their efforts - we saw lots of riders put in big efforts at the start Saturday, attacking repeatedly - Alexis Vuillermoz for example, but then they simply had no energy left to go again when the key move finally stuck and we ended up with a strange break with Van Avermaet, EBH and Lutsenko. But that came back together, another break went, then that came back together and the big one with 46 riders finally only went clear after 75kms.

It may be that we don't see the key break going here again until the first categorised climb, the Cote de Capvern which comes after 67kms, but we could see counter moves come to try to join them in the flat next 30kms before the Cols des Ares. From there it's pretty tough for the last 90kms, with the two Cat 1 climbs and the HC Col de Peyresourde. 

I think the break has a good chance today though. Sky just need to control it, they don't need to drag Bardet, Aru and Martin to the final climb only to have them attack Froome and snatch bonus seconds off of him. BMC, Movistar and Quick-Step will probably have men in the break, and Astana may play it cool to try to get Fuglsang and Aru to the Peyresourde with a double chance of attacking Froome and taking time back off of him and the others in the GC around Aru. 

AG2R might be the only ones left with Sky who will take up the chasing, but even then they are surely going to have men in the break too, so that might see them pedal at 80%. And that's a bit of a pity for Dan Martin, as I think this finish is perfect for him, that is of course if he's not stiff and sore after his wall-slam on Sunday. 

But Paddy Power have made Fabio Aru their 9/2 favourite for this stage, but he's going to have to race a bit smarter than he did on Sunday when he and Fuglsang basically towed Froome after Bardet instead of attacking him in a proper way and not that bullshit "I didn't see he had a mechanical" attack. Aru was superb on LPDBF and you can see why he has been installed as favourite after that attack. 

But as Chris Froome said after that day "we won't give him that much space again" - he's a marked man now, and not just for that, but for his 2nd place on GC, just 18" behind Froome. Where will he attack? Well I think he'll go towards the end of the Peyresourde and not the final ascent. The last 3kms are around 8% average, similar to LPDBF and he is sure to attack there. But it is going to be a lot harder this time as I said, he has not only Froome to chase him, but Bardet, Uran, Martin and Yates. And maybe even Quintana and Contador. 

Jacob Fuglsang also sits in the top 5, just 1'37" behind Froome - I agree with something Michael Rasmussen wrote today, he said that if Fuglsang wants to win the Tour he has to be aggressive and go on the offensive. And he thinks that he needs to go on the Porte de Bales, with 40kms to go, to set the cat amongst the pigeons and put the others under pressure. He said, and he's right, no one cares whether he finishes 5th or 8th, he needs to go for it. And in doing so, he could well be teeing it up for a later Aru attack, like they did in the Dauphiné. It's all or nothing maybe for Fuglsang as Rasmussen said. 

Chris Froome is second favourite and it's hard to know what to really make of his performance on Sunday. He was under a lot of pressure with Porte and Aru and the rest attacking him, then had his convenient mechanical, a bike change and then when he got back he went on the attack himself. He caused some damage, but not to the real contenders. He attacked of course on the descent as is his style nowadays but it will be interesting to see how he copes on a summit finish. In the Dauphiné he struggled when attacked on all the summit finishes and on La Planche he was not able to really mount a challenge to Aru, and even Dan Martin left him behind at the finish.

They could attack him as early as the Porte de Bales and try to isolate him from his team, which to be honest hasn't been as powerful as you'd expect once the heavy attacking starts, they can attack him on the Peyresourde, or they even have 2.4kms at the finish to try to distance him, but if they really want to make up time on him they will have to do it before this, there just isn't enough road to gain a decent gap. But we know he is going well, we know he loves stages like this, I'm just not sure he'll be winning here, the others seem to be able to match him and the likes of Dan Martin or even Aru could outsprint him at the finish. 

But what about the rest of the team? There is a good chance that they will put someone in the break, Nico Roche said today he expects a big break to go tomorrow. They could put any of Nieve, Henao or Landa in the break, maybe even more than one, and that will cause the others to chase as they are all in the top 15 and other teams will be trying to protect their top 10 placings. The race comes about as close as they are going to get to the Basque country, so expect some action from Nieve and Landa.

Landa has been really poor so far, not taking pulls and dropping away early on in some of the key climbs. The fact that he sits in 9th though, just over 3' down on his team-mate shows that actually, maybe the legs aren't that bad and he might have been saving himself for the Pyrenees.. It's going to be interesting to see if he can get in the break though with just a 3 minute deficit, but Froome is not going to chase him.. Maybe he might wait for the Porte de Bales and go then, just to set the cat amongst the pigeons with the other GC teams. At 100/1 with bet365 I thought he was worth keeping onside. Mikel Nieve or Sergio Henao might have more room to go, being more than 6 minutes back, I wouldn't be surprised to see them on the move either.  

And so on to Dan Martin. If, IF, he hadn't crashed on Sunday he'd be sitting in 3rd place for us and I think he'd have been favourite for this stage. As it is, we don't really know for sure what sort of condition he is in, particularly when his body is put under enormous pressure on a stage like this. We didn't see much of him yesterday, bar when he came to hug Kittel after the line, but he looked to be ok, no visible bandages. I was sure he'd be bruised and damaged in his back, the speed with which he hit that rock-face, it was like crashing in to a wall at 50kmph. I did manage to have a word with someone today who works with him and he told me that '"his back is ripped to shit, but not broken bones etc.."  He didn't sound too worried about him. If he is ok, and he rides like he has been doing, then if he can get to the bottom of the final climb in with a chance then he surely has to the favourite to do a trademark attack in the last 2kms and the 14/1 will have looked like a gift.. In fact, since the time I started wirting this he has been cut from 14/1 to 9/1, take that if you can. 

Romain Bardet is joint 11/1 third favourite though with Nairo Quintana and these two could not have had more contrasting Tour's so far. While Bardet has been his usual swash-buckling self and almost winning Sunday's stage, Quintana was getting dropped and left behind. Bardet now sits in 3rd place on the GC, good for our 25/1 e/w bets, but Quintana is down in 8th, over 2 mins down on Froome. I knew I should have layed him for a top 3 place... :-)

Bardet could do anything here again, and he has said that this stage suits him. He could attack near the top of the PDB, he could attack on the descent, he could attack on the Peyresourde, or even on the descent off the top of it. That is very short though, only about 2.4kms, so he's not going to gain major time there, but if he even gets a 15" gap he could hold it to the finish.

More likely I think is that he will have men in the break, he will attack coming down the descent of the PDB, they will be waiting for him at the bottom of the Peyresourde and give him everything they've got for as long as they can to help him stretch his lead. I'm talking Matthias Frank, Alexis Vuillermoz or Jan Bakelants, they look to be the strongest at the moment. If they can do that and he has 30" or more over the top of the Peyresourde, he will win the stage. 

Rigo Uran has been a major surprise for many in this Tour, I'm really regretting not having something on him when I was told by my Cannondale man he'd be going for GC, instead I went with bloody Talansky who is now over 30 mins down! He was incredible on Sunday, despite being stuck in the 53x11 he outsprinted the lot of them. Maybe he should just stick it in the 11 again tomorrow and grind it. He could go well here too, and with the kick he showed on Sunday he could throw down a challenge in the last 500m here too.. but 11/1 is far too short for me. 

Alberto Contadaor has been a real disappointment for some, but not for me, he's exactly where I expected him to be. There are a lot of people expecting him to go ballistic at some point and try a crazy long-range attack to liven up the race, but I'm not sure he's even capable of it. Likewise with Nairo Quintana, he is surely capable of better and maybe we'll see his fabled 'gets better as the race goes on' powers lift him on a tough stage like this. He opened at a ridiculous 11/1 with PP, he's now 28/1 with Bet365, a price that's about 4 times what we'd have expected on a stage like this ordinarily. 

And then we are getting in to a very large group of guys who could get in the breakaway.. Thibaut Pinot has said, as we all know by now, that he is going for stages and the KOM, well I think he can forget about the KOM for this year, he has been very poor so far. So that leaves him with just stages to go for and he really only has 3 or 4 left that he could realistically have a chance of winning. Maybe he will wait for Friday and Bastille day though, it's a shorter stage and one that might suit him better. 

Serge Pauwels has been riding well, hes gone on the attack a few times already and has looked strong on the climbs. He could well fancy it again tomorrow, he's good at getting in the important moves to at least give us a shot at 50/1.. He was 80/1 when PP opened and I took some of that, the 50/1 is still generous, he's only 33/1 elsewhere. 

BMC could have a whole bunch of guys who could be in the break tomorrow, now that Porte is gone, they have the freedom to ride for themselves. Nicholas Roche was interviewed today after the stage and when asked what he would be doing for tomorrow he said 'trying to get in the break with 150 other guys'.. so he has his eye on tomorrow's stage too, he rode well earlier in the race and is looking fit enough, he's not a great price at 33/1 but I want to have something on him. He could be joined by the likes of Alessandro De Marchi, Damiano Caruso, Michael Schar or Danilo Wys, Caruso the most likely out of that lot.  

Tiesj Benoot rode really well on Sunday, he deserved more but finished a very creditable 12th place on a very tough stage after being out front all day. He clearly has good legs and Lotto have had a pretty disastrous race so far with André Greipel failing to win a stage so I think they'll be trying to put him and Gallopin and maybe even De Gendt in the break, but Benoot could find a few too good for him at the finish again.

And of course Warren Barguil will be prominent tomorrow too, now that the KOM is on his shoulders and he has a great chance of winning it. He was around evens two days ago to win the jersey, but has shortened in to around 4/6 generally now, despite there not being a single climb in the last two days. I think people have been realising that none of the guys around him are really all that great at climbing and he may only need to win a few decent climbs to take the jersey. The big points available on the Izoard summit will probably be taken by a GC man, so as long as he picks up points out on the road like tomorrow, he should take it. I've added a 4pt bet at 1.85 on Betfair on him to take the KOM, hopefully he'll be around 1.2 tomorrow night.

As for the stage, I think he will do his utmost to take the early easier climbs and the HC on the Porte de Bales, and then, if their lead is long enough he may even take the Peyresourde, but I don't think he'll be too bothered if he slips back after the HC if they are caught on the Peyresourde and cruise to the finish to save energy.  Primoz Roglic might have his mind on the jersey too, but I think he's a bit limited, and maybe he'll be saving his energy for the TT in Marseilles in a week. He is a newbie to Grand Tour racing after all, he wouldn't want to burn himself out before his chance of glory in the TT. 

And there are so many other guys - Brice Feillu and Pierre-Luc Perichon have been active this week on the climbs, and Fortuneo are sure to put a man or two in the break. Liliane Calmejane looked cooked the other day on the climb, getting dropped very early while in the Polka Dots, maybe he has recovered enough now to give it another go. Alexis Vuillermoz could go early in an effort to help Bardet later on, if they are not caught he'd have a big chance. Same with Gianluca Brambilla for Dan Martin, Brambilla has been very quiet so far in this race, the course hasn't really suited him at all, but he might give it a go tomorrow and would be in with a chance on that finish also. And we haven't even mentioned Simon Yates, Pierre Rolland, Darwin Atapuma, Esteban Chaves and Carlos Betancur, other guys who could have chances.. 

So decision time... well the dynamic for Astana has changed a little tonight since I started writing this preview, with the news that Jacob Fuglsang has two fractures after his crash today, a crash that took Dario Cataldo out of the race. He has a wrist and elbow fracture and has trouble straightening his arm and braking, I can't see him featuring tomorrow. So that leaves Aru fending for himself and it might just nullify his chances a little bit, so he's too short for me. I like Bardet and Martin though, I think they give us two chances of winning and I've scattered a few break candidates out there too. It's a long and brutal stage and will surely make up for the snoozefest of the last two days. And it could turn the race on it's head again if they decide to attack and isolate Froome from a long way out. It should be good... 

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Dan Martin at 10/1 with Skybet

0.5pts each-way on Romain Bardet at 12/1 general

0.2pts each-way on Nico Roche at 33/1 with various

0.2pts each-way on Serge Pauwels at 50/1 with various

0.2pts each-way on Mikel Landa at 100/1 with Bet365

4pts on Warren Barguil to win the KOM at 1.85 on Betfair

Matchbets

Froome to beat Uran, Nieve to beat Henao and Barguil to beat Pinot - 2pts at 2/1 with Will Hill

Mollema to beat Vuillermoz - 2pts at evens with 365

Dan Martin to beat Chris Froome - 2pts at 6/4 with Will Hill

Landa to beat Contador - 3pts at 4/6 with Bet365