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- Published on Wednesday, 05 July 2017 20:54
TDF 2017 Stage 6
Thursday 6th July, 216kms
So a day after the first mountain battle of the race we head back on to the flatlands for another of those 200km, flat, boring stages that should end in a sprint finish in the picturesque town of Troyes.
Well we thought stage 4 to Vittel was going to be boring, and let's face it, it was for the vast majority of it. That was up until two FDJ riders went down, partly in thanks to Peter Sagan barging his way past them, an incident I think that may have also been taken in to account by the jurors when deciding to eject Sagan. That first crash took Kittel, Groenewegen, Matthews and others out of the sprint and left just a handful of riders to fight it out, and they still managed to crash in to each other..
And now they face this finish in Troyes. In their infinite wisdom and seemingly with complete disregard for the safety of the riders they have found a finish with not one, but two roundabouts inside the last kilometre. Let's hope we have none of the nonsense of stage 4, although Bouhanni is still in the race.. but that's unfair on Bouhanni, he was a man more sinned against than sinning in stage 4, Démare cost him a better placing and nothing was done to Démare.
Stage 5 Review
We got a strong break with the likes of Voeckler, Gilbert, Van Baarle and EBH up the road today, but BMC kept a very tight leash on things, not letting them get very far ahead and keeping the gap around 3 mins for most of the stage. They did a lot of the driving, and it looked like Porte was full of confidence for La Planche. As it turned out it was Fabio Aru who made the only, and yet decisive attack of the day, with some 3.5kms to go. It was surprising that he was let go on his own, they all know what legs he had from the Dauphiné and how good a climber he is, he's a Vuelta winner after all!
But Dan Martin should have been one to go after him and he didn't, maybe he was worried about burning himself out and instead fancied taking time off the others at the finish. He did brilliantly in the end, exactly as I expected him to do and pull off a Mur du Huy finish to the stage to take 2nd, the each-way paid out, but I think we were very unlucky like with Bouhanni yesterday. It bodes well for his GC chances though, he is up to 4th now and could well stay top 5, hopefully he'll move on to a podium step.
Froome attacked, but Porte, Martin and Bardet covered him easily, he didn't have much more to give after that. Geraint Thomas passed on the jersey to his team-mate, he faded away in the last 2kms when the pace was upped. But more worrying for Froome and Sky was how early Mikel Landa folded, they will need him on the longer climbs and that will be a concern. As it is though, Bardet, Porte and Martin all were devoid of team-mates too at the business end, so it really could come down to a mano-a-mano scrap in this race.
Nairo Quintana was a disappointment, he was unable to stay with the leaders in the closing stages, he lost 14" to Froome. Simon Yates (6th) and Rigo Uran (7th) were impressive, as was Meintjes, doing his young riders chances some good, although Yates finished ahead of him though, there's going to be a real battle between those guys.. Latour struggled a little today, but he will surely do better on longer, less steep climbs.
In the end it was honours even between Porte and Froome, but at least Froome had a go, Richie sat on his wheel and did nothing, no real counter-punch, he just upped the pace with about 1km to go, but eased off again and Dan attacked. What can we make of the early skirmish? Well not a lot really, Porte and Froome looked equal to each other, but we did see that there are a bunch of guys behind willing to take them on, including the likes of Uran, Aru, Martin and Bardett.
Route
Yet another stage over 200kms, this one is the second longest of the race with only stage 19 being longer at 222kms. The route looks flatish on the profile but it's anything but, the road rolls along over constantly undulating roads with lots of little hills along the way, the sorts of hills that can really tire you when the pace is high and the peloton strings out and comes back together again, sometimes gaps will form and it is hard to get back on. There are two Cat 4 climbs along the way at the 69km and 154km mark, and another uncategorised little hill at Spoy with 162kms gone.
The last 16kms are almost totally flat and as they enter Troyes there's the usual road furniture to deal with. As they pass under the 1km to go flag though they veer right to go around a roundabout and at the exit turn right out of it, down a small little road and then turn left on to the Boulevard de 14 Juillet. Then it's about 600m along the straight before they come on to the roundabout with 100m or so to go.. but looking at the map below closely, I think they will just shoot straight through it like it's just a straight road, so it shouldn't be too much of a problem.
Route Map
Profile
Last Kms Profile
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Last Kms Map
Contenders and Favourites
Marcel Kittel is the obvious pick again and I couldn't believe he was 6/4 with Paddy Power tonight, he was only 10/11 with Bet365 and that was the sort of price I expected. Two of his biggest rivals are out, and in the sprint on stage 2 which was a proper sprint, he did Démare for speed and power. Add in the fact that Démare had two of his leadout men hit the deck when Sagan bashed them out of the way and the fact Démare came under a lot of criticism for his part in the mess of a sprint in Vittel, and I think Kittel has the beating of him again.
Quickstep are starting to get warmed up with Gilbert, Vermote, Stybar, Trentin all starting to show their face, and with DDD and Bora out of the way of the sprint now they should have an easier job getting their leadout sorted and Kittel in position on that last straiight stretch. I think that whoever leads through that left-hander on to the finishing straight will have a major advantage and I expect it to be Quickstep, or if not Quickstep, they will be just behind Lotto-Soudal. Give Kittel a clean shot at the line and he won't be beaten.
Arnaud Démare of course is now favourite for the green jersey with the expulsion of Sagan, and he'll be looking to add to his points total with a second sprint victory. I said before the race I thought he'd have a big Tour and it's proving that way, I think he will podium tomorrow, but the 7/4 or so that's available on him is very short indeed. As I mentioned, he had two men come down in the first crash in Vittel, they may not have been badly hurt but it could take something out of their leadout. And he might just ease off the gas a little too if it gets a bit tricky, many people were calling for him to have been relgated because of his dangerous move in the sprint, he might not want to draw fire tomorrow.
Nacer Bouhanni had a strange sprint on stage 4, I was getting excited for a while after the first crash as I genuinely thought he might take the guys that were in his little group and he was on a great wheel ready to pounce. But just as he was about to go, Démare shot across in front of him and Bouhanni had to check his sprint and slow down, costing him whatever chance he had. I think he'll be really smarting after that and owes Démare quite a few now after the Nationals as well, I think he'll be really fired up for this tomorrow, 14/1 isn't a bad price on him.
André Greipel took 3rd place in that crash-marred stage 4, but that was partly down to the crash and also Bouhanni easing down when he knew the win had gone. I don't think he'd have been in the top 3 had Cav and Sagan stayed upright. But Lotto could boss this leadout now too, they are looking the most organised and numerous at the finishes and they could slingshot him in to a position where he could take a podium spot. But 6/1 isn't great I think he could easily be 5th or 7th.
Alexander Kristoff took a fine 2nd place behind Démare in Vittel, but again, I don't think he'd have been there had the sprint panned out as normal. I think in a flat sprint like this though he will be caught for pace and will have to settle for 4th to 9th. Michael Matthews looks a big price at 33/1, considering he is back in the race for the green jersey again, and was up fighting for the points in the intermediate today. He took 7th in stage 4 but was held up by the crash and didn't get in a blow at all. He could come close here if Sunweb can tee him him, he's too big to ignore at 33/1.
Mark Renshaw could now be allowed to sprint for DDD, but I can't see him coming close to winning it, Sonny Colbrelli looks to be a 4th to 9th place man and Dan Mc Lay will be lucky to get in the top 10 I think
So it all points to Kittel I think. We'll never know if he'd have beaten Démare in the sprint in Vittel as Kittel was held up by the crash, but he comfortably took care of him in stage 1. Démare is sure to be in the top 3 again but is no each-way price, and Bouhanni is sure to wind us up by performing well in this one, and at 14/1 he could be worth an each-way bet too. The 6/4 is gone on Kittel but you can get 5/4 on Betfair or 11/10 with others
Recommendations:
3pts win on Marcel Kittel at 5/4 on Betfair
0.5pts each-way on Nacer Bouhanni at 14/1 with PP
0.3pts each-way on Michael Matthews at 33/1 with Bet365
Matchbets
Bouhanni to beat Kristoff - 2pts at 8/11 with 365
Aru to beat Froome - 2pts at 2/1 with Bet365. 2/1 looks too big, Aru often finishes high up on flat stages as well, it should be closer to 50/50 I think so 2/1 on one rider is too big, especially considering he finishes well
Matthews to beat Colbrelli - 2pts at 8/11