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Published on Tuesday, 04 July 2017 17:44

TDF Stage 5

Vittel to La Planche des Belle Filles

Wed. 5th July, 160.5kms 

The climb to La Planche des Belle Filles has only been used twice before now in the Tour, but it has established itself as one of the most difficult and important stages in the race. And I don't think it will be any different this year.

In 2012 it saw the true emergence of Chris Froome as a major Grand Tour player with his victory ahead of Cadel Evans, Brad Wiggins and Vincenzo Nibali. In 2014 Vincenzo Nibali went three places better when he took a superb stage win to extend his lead in the GC, a lead he was never to relequish for the rest of the race. 

Nibali did it solo, winning by 15" from Thibaut Pinot with Valverde 5" further back in 3rd. When Froome won it was from a small group of favourites with Cadel Evans, Brad Wiggins and Nibali. What sort of winner will we have this year? Solo winner or a small group? Hard to know, but it is sure to be revealing and significant for the GC, regardless of how early in the race it happens to be.  

Stage 4 Review

Well not a lot to say about this stage, I told you it was going to be boring. But, seriously, how the hell can a peloton of 195 riders sit there and only one guy get away. It's incredible, but it's the ASO's fault. You plan a route like this, the riders are going to say 'up yours' and take a day off. 

Anyway, in the end we got 10 mins of action and what a crazy finish we had.. I'm not going to say much, had lots of discussions about what happened on Twitter, and I think it was a really hard decision for the jury. I think Sags closed the door, but Cav hit his elbow flicking it forward, rather than Sagan digging the elbow in. The relegation was the right decision I think, was dangerous riding to close the door like that, but Sagan was also just a ripple in a flow that started out on the left. 

Demare took the stage to wind us up after yesterday and I think we were very unlucky with Bouhanni, he was on Kristoff's wheel and ready to launch his sprint when Démare shot out from right to left (you can see him to the right of Bouhanni above). With Sagan's relegation he ended up 4th, but he stopped sprinting in the end when he saw his chance was gone and Greipel passed him in the run-in. The good news I suppose you could say is that Sagan was fined 50pts today and also lost the 30pts he won at the finish, so Arnaud Démare has taken over the Green Jersey lead and is now trading at evens to win Green. 

Thanks to both matchbets winning we were flat on the day but it looks like we might be collecting on Cav to not win a stage, although it's not the way I'd have wanted to win it. 

The Route

A pretty flat run for 100kms as they pass through the Vosges and in to the Haute Saone, with only the little uncategorised pull up out of Fougerolles to bother them after 85kms. Soon after though they pass through the intermediate sprint at Faucogney and less than 2kms later they start the Cat 3 Cote d'Esmoulieres, short at just 2.3kms, but nasty at an 8% average. Even though the categorised part of the climb is just 2.3kms long, the road carries on climbing for another 14kms until they meet the D486 at the top of the Col des Croix, where they turn right and head south-west. 

After a 16km descent they again turn left at Belonchamp and start heading east towards the final climb of the Planche Des Belles Filles (LPDBF). The road starts climbing with just over 20kms left, first with an uncategorised climb of almost 10kms, a descent for 3kms and then they start the final pull up to LPDBF.  

The climb to LPDBF is 8.5kms from the bottom, but the categorised (Cat 1) part is 5.9kms at 8.5% average. The climb to La Planche is a horrible climb - Thibaut Pinot describes it as a 'Disconcerting climb' - "Whether I've been training or racing, I've never felt good there. It's true for everyone as it's hard to find a rhythm there". It starts off hard and it stays hard all the way - The first kilometre is 9.4% average with a maximum of 13%, then it eases just a little for the next kilometre to just 6.7% with a max of 11%. The next two kilometres average 9.5% with max of 11% and the last two kilometres average 8.25%.

But the last kilometre has a little flat section with 500m to go and then it kicks up to a 20% average for the final ramp to the line. You need a lot of watts at the end of a very hard climb to win on this finish.. 

Contenders and Favourites

The first real battle amongst the GC favourites.. but does a break have any chance of making it to the finish ahead of them? It's possible, but I think it just isn't hard enough out on the course to deter a strong chase and I think Sky, BMC and Astana will bring back the break in time for LPDBF, or early on the slopes if not before it. The uncategorised climb up to La Chevestraye could be the place where the GC teams start to thin things out, Sky will probably go to the front to reduce it down by half at least. But the final pull up starts brutally hard with the first kilometre averaging 9.4% with parts hitting 13%. Then it eases back a little before another 2kms at 9.5% average. This is where the damage will be done and where the race-winning move is going to happen probably, be it a solo breakaway or a split where the top 5-10 riders get away from the rest. 

Chris Froome has previous of course on this climb, having won on it in 2012, but had already crashed out by the time they came to it in 2014. Normally I'd be all over Froome here, but you know what? I just can't trust him from what I have seen of him so far this year. Dropped by Porte on the final climb in the Dauphiné, dropped on Alpe d'Huez - not great signs from a guy who normally is winning the Dauphiné. He did a super TT though on the opening stage, so the training post-Dauphiné seems to have gone well.

But then I watched him closely on the finish on Monday to Longwy - while Thomas was up in around 5th wheel as Porte was accelerating away at the front, Froome was way back in around 30th place, head down spinning like fury just trying to hold his place. It was only when Porte eased off and it bunched up a little again was he able to get back in touch with those at the front, so I think his 9th place finish flattered him. Which Froome will we see tomorrow? I'm not sure. He's surely going to be right up there, Knees, Kiryeinka, Henao and co will tow him for as far as they can and then we'll see what he's got when the others start attacking him. But I'm not backing him at just

But Sky have the conundrum of Geraint Thomas as well and what to do with him... what happens if Froome is in trouble and Porte or Aru are going off up the road? Does Thomas wait in the yellow jersey for Froome? It will be like Froome and Wiggins all over again.. Will Thomas be called to rank, or let go in pursuit of the GC dangers to try to keep them in check? Well that's speculating a what-if situation with Froome that may not happen, but it shows that it could be very hard to read this stage. Thomas has chances of his own if he's left ride his own race, but that 20% finish might be too steep for him if he comes there with some spritelier guys

Richie Porte has to have a big chance here too I think. I wouldn't be surprised to see him attack with 4kms to go when the road hits the 9.4% section again, if he accelerates like he did in the Dauphiné and keeps accelerating there won't be many able to stay with him. He tested the legs in Longwy and had them all on the stretch, Contador couldn't hold the wheel and had to leave it up to Majka and Sagan to close him down. Porte has to take the fight to Froome and Sky early I think, you just know they will stick the knife in at any and every given opportunity, maybe Richie needs to get his retaliation in first so to speak.. BMC looked ok on the run-in to Longwy, ok, it was only a few kilometres that they had to work, but they committed and put Richie in a good position (and ultimately GVA too) 

Nairo Quintana has not done LPDBF before, he was not in the 2012 or 2014 editions of the race. It is a climb that should suit him well though, the 9.5% gradients are right up his street and the final 20% section is where small, light guys like him might have the edge in a head to head sprint. We've yet to see Nairo really explode of late though, beside Blockhaus in the Dauphiné he's not really impressed with his attacks.. maybe he can team up with someone like Porte or Aru or Contador to try to get away. Movistar have lost a key weapon with the loss of Valverde to injury, he would have been a very useful lieutenant to have on this climb.

Instead, Movistar will be looking to Carlos Betancur, Andrey Amador, Jonathan Castroviejo and Jesus Herrada to try to control things, but I also wouldn't be surprised to see someone like Carlos Betancur go on the attack, he's looking lean and mean and was very impressive in the Hammer series climbing event a few weeks back. He could be sent up the road in an early attack on La Planche, to either see if he can get a bit of leeway to press on, or else to be used as a carrot to lure the other teams in to the chase and for Nairo to jump up to when the gap closes again.  

Fabio Aru could follow in the footsteps of his former team-mate here and launch a long-ranger on the final climb, the team knows what it takes to win on this climb. He has been in superb climbing form lately, but not only that he has had the balls to go on the attack when others didn't. I think we will see him on the attack, it's just a matter of when, and he may well strike on the very first climb while others are still feeling each other out and biding their time. If he gets 20-30" with 3kms to go they might not pull him back. Jakob Fuglsang his team-mate could also go well, but I don't think he'll win it or be in the top 3. 

Thibaut Pinot did well here last time up it, very well in fact for a fella who said what he did about it before riding in to 2nd place last time up here. As we know, he says he's here to try to win stages and take the KOM jersey.. well this is a big one for the KOM as it lays down the law early on and some of his rivals for it might not be able to stay with the GC men when they kick off on this final climb. He may hang in there and launch a late attack with 2-3kms to go. He's already almost 4 minutes down on GC after rolling in Monday 3 minutes down so he might be let go when others in the GC hunt won't. 

Dan Martin had been really talking down his chances ahead of stage 3, instead pointing out all the options the team had besides him, such as Gilbert, Trentin and Stybar.. As it turned out he surprised even himself with his performance to take a fine 3rd place and 4 bonus seconds, an unexpected way to claw back some TT losses. He was brimming with satisfaction and confidence after it, and said that LPDBF suited him and he was looking forward to it. He rode it in 2012 when Nibali won but was down in 17th, but that 25-year old Dan Martin was a very different rider to today's Dan Martin.

I think he could be a real player here though. He showed in the Dauphiné that he is not afraid to attack when others sit and look at each other, but that's always been his style anyway. Sometimes in the past he has been caught out on longer climbs, but this is not a long climb, and the gradient is his kind of gradient. I liked his price of 22/1 when PP opened so took that. 

Romain Bardet has been looking forward to this climb too, he thinks it will suit him. He also was not afraid to attack in the Dauphiné and rode really well finishing in 5th, 6th and 7th places on the three tough stages. He'll have Vuillermoz, Frank and Gautier working for him and could try something with 3-4kms to go too. I think he might not stay away though so I'm not backing him. 

Alberto Contador just doesn't look like he is in good enough shape to strike a blow here, he was unable to stay with Porte on Monday and was not climbing great in the Dauphiné. I think if it becomes a GC battle with Movistar and Sky trying to shred each other the like of Pierre Rolland, Diego Ulissi, Gianluca Brambilla, Daniel Navarro and Warren Barguil will be put out the back door. 

Johan Esteban Chaves and Darwin Atapuma might have chances on this finish too, but I think Atapuma will be helping Meintjes and Chaves has to prove his fitness to us before we can back him, although he is sounding confident and bullish from the snippets I've seen of him. Others with outside chances include Pierre Latour, Simon Yates and Rigoberto Uran. 

I think though that this stage is going to come down to a rip up from Sky and Movistar and an all-out battle between the GC men over the last 6kms. There are a lot of unknowns about how the climbing legs are going to be so early in the race, after four flat, stressful days. Some will go well but others will lose time. I really fancy Porte for tomorrow though - I think he has a point to prove and wants to take back time early to put pressure on Sky. Of course Thomas and Froome will be hard to beat and we night even see Thomas faring better than Froome on a climb like this, that will be interesting too. 

I also like Dan Martin's chances and at 22/1 I think he's a bet, if he's in contention coming to the last 20% section he could do a Mur de Huy type burst and take the stage. 

Recommendations:

2pts win on Richie Porte at 9/2 or bigger

0.5pts each-way on Dan Martin at 22/1 with PP

Matchbets

Bardet to beat Contador - 2pts at 8/11 with Will Hill

Martin to beat Yates and Fuglsang to beat Majka - 3pts at 11/10 with Bet365

Add Frank to beat Vuillermoz to make it a treble - 2pts at 2.3/1 with Bet365