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Published on Sunday, 02 July 2017 20:24

TDF 2017 Stage 3

Verviers to Longwy

Monday 3rd July, 212.5kms 

The second of many stages over 200kms, you'd think the ASO have not watched any racing themselves in recent months, where we have seen that the shorter, punchier stages have brought some of the best racing.

Yes, I know they have to get from a town that is paying a lot for the privilege to another town that is paying a lot for the privelege, and need to cover as much of the massive country as possible, but stages as long as 212kms just seem too long and boring these days. This stage starts in the town of Verviers, home town of Philippe Gilbert, and starts just two days before his 35th birthday. With an uphill finish to Longwy that averages 5.8% for 1.6kms, Gilbert will be hoping to make it a memorable day for him and his fans.

The stage traverses three countries as it heads south from Verviers, leaving Belgium, passing through Luxembourg and just across the border in to France to finish in Longwy. 

Stage 2 Review

Well that was more like it, almost as good as it could have been, bar Matthews sneaking on to the podium..! As some started to panic with 5kms to go and worry that the breakers of Taylor Phinney and Yoann Offredo were going to hold on with a 30" lead, Kittel's price popped out to 4/1 on Betfair and I managed to quickly get 1.5pts on him before it disappeared. But I'll be honest, as the sprint was winding up, I had given up and accepted that the bet was a loser, as there was no sign of Kittel and Quick-Step.

Even when he surfaced out on the left side of the screen, he looked in trouble and was having to surf wheels all by himself.. But boy, when he got some daylight in front of him he powered to a great win. And Arnaud Démare had our backs covered though as he took 2nd in the sprint from Greipel, the Podium I called yesterday. And the matchbet double and treble also won to give us a nice 8pt return to make up for yesterday's crappy start. 

It was a good sprint from Greipel too for 3rd, and as predicted, Groenewegen would have landed the 4th to 9th place bets with his 5th place finish. In between the two of them was Mark Cavendish - a great result for him giving his troubles. Bouhanni and Matthews were a little off the pace in 8th and 9th but Sagan started leading out the sprint and was shuffled back to 10th by the finish, not a great return for him for the Green, but I'm sure he won't be too worried about it, he'll have his eye on tomorrow's stage. 

Phinney was superb, he's in Polka-dots now and almost hung on to take the stage, but the only other thing of note about the stage was the big crash with 27kms to go that took down Froome, Thomas, Bardet and lots more. Froome had damaged his shorts in the arse/back area, no word yet on whether he has hurt himself or not. 

The Route

A stage that starts in Verviers and travels south through Belgium, over the Cat 4 Cote de Sart (2.8kms at 5.1%) before dipping in to the Province de Luxembourg after 37.5kms. After 67kms it enters Luxembourg and in the space of 31kms they go through the intermediate sprint and two climbs. First up is the Cote de Wiltz after 105.5kms, a Cat 4 climb of 3.1kms at 4.8% and that's followed 15kms later by the Cote d'Eschdorf, a Cat 3 climb at a nasty 9.3% for 2.3kms.

They continue heading south over rolling terrain and after 181.5kms enter France. The road rises gently out of Esch Sur Alzette, then after a false flat and a dip down they hit the Cat 4 Cote de Villers la Montagne, which is just 1.1kms at 5.2%, but as there are just 15kms left to go the pace will be furious and some could find themselves getting detached. The road descends until 4kms to go and enter Longwy with just 2.5kms left. 

With 1600m to go they arrive at the foot of the Cote des Religieuses for the first uphill finish of the Tour. It's only 1.6kms long but the first 500m are over 8% and that will strip out all of the purer sprinters. Looking at the profile on Google maps, the first 500m are pretty tough, a good, solid 6-8% gradient on a well surfaced, wide road. As they take the sharp left-hand bend with about 1200m to you can get an idea of the gradients at either side, but also the 11% gradients on the apex of the bend below.

But it does ease back to 6% and then 4% and 3% over the last kilometre, the last right-hand bend is tight, but almost flat. The finishing straight is almost flat for the last 300m or so, but it's likely that it will be just the strongest puncheurs will be fighting it out today or very strong sprinters who have hung in there.  

Contenders and Favourites

This finish poses a lot of questions for teams to try to figure out their strategy. I think that we will see the peloton come to the finale in one piece (unless the winds have split the race) and then teams have to decide the best course of action. Do they try attacking from the bottom and hope to get a small group of 4 or 5 away that might be able to hold on while others look at each other and wait for someone to take up the chase?

Or do some teams ride explosively fast up the climb to try to shed all bar the strongest men? If they do it could turn in to a GC mens type of finish and the sprinters won't have a chance. Or do some teams try to ride steady and control the pace to keep their punchy sprinters in the pack? It could be all of the above to be honest, there are lots of teams who will have an interest in this one. the other issue with going hard up the early part of the climb of course is that the last 700m are much flatter and a strong chase could close down any splits that occur and possibly drag some sprinters back in to it. 

You have to start with Peter Sagan on a finish like this don't you, he'll be either leading the attacking coming up the last 1600m, or he may sit in and surf and let everyone else fight it out. What we should see though is Sagan cruising near the front, ready to pounce once the sprint opens up. I think he is perfectly suited to this stage and he is going to be hard to beat. He'll have Buchmann, Selig, Burghardt, Majka and McCarthy leading him up the climb, a very powerful bunch of guys who will help thin out the peloton for him and he should do the rest like in the Tour de Suisse. He didn't do a great sprint today though, so if some better sprinters have managed to hang in there he might have a battle on his hands

Philippe Gilbert probably deserves a special mention early on in this preview too, as this will be the Philippe Gilbert Appreciation Society Day. It is sure to be special for him to depart from Verviers and the finish suits him perfectly too, it was like they designed the stage almost perfectly for him. I say 'almost perfectly' for him though as the finish is a bit like the Cauberg, 1.6kms at 5.6% average (Cauberg is 1200m at 5.8%) and with a steeper first part and a flatter run to the line. Gilbert is sure to give it a go, but it's hard to win Amstel Gold solo from the bottom of the climb, he was in special form when he did that....

He may get away but it will be really hard to hold the pack off over the last 700m as they come in pursuit. He has the power of the Quickstep team with him though, who won't be needing to look after Kittel, he'll be gone out the back door after 500m. Stybar, Martin, Brambilla and maybe even Trentin could be there to help him. And if he can't make it, Matteo Trentin could be there to pounce, he's clearly in superb shape given his 4th place in the TT on the opening day, he could be a real dark horse for this one, he is just 10" off the lead and could take the yellow jersey if there's a little gap to Thomas or if Trentin takes an intermediate sprint bonification.. 

As for all the other sprinter types, it's trying to guess who can hang in there - Michael Matthews is a prime candidate, he's won La Primavera a few years back and is looking strong. He has also done very well on the Cauberg in the past, finishing 3rd and fifth in Amstel Gold and he went well in the TT too and sprinted to 9th today. Nacer Bouhanni might be able to, he has done so in races like Milan San Remo over the Poggio. Arnaud Démare likewise, he won MSR last year from a powerful sprint, even if he got a tow from his team car.. He sprinted well today and could have taken the stage had Kittel not pounced late. 

Dylan Groenewegen also doesn't mind the hilly finishes, he may well hang in there too, aided maybe by Roglic, Gesink and Bennett. I don't think Greipel, McLay or Cavendish will make it over with the leaders, but Alexander Kristoff might (well at least the Kristoff of a few years back might), I'm not sure he's able to any more, his sprint today didn't fill me with confidence.. And Sonny Colbrelli could possibly hang in there too, he would fancy himself in a reduced sprint with puncheurs and non-sprinter types. 

And then you have the other puncheur types, the Classics riders like Greg Van Avermaet and Michal Kwiatkowski. Van Avermaet will surely be invovled in the pushing on the steeper parts, he may even try to get away solo. I think there could be a chance for someone like GVA to attack hard, and the GC men and sprinters all look at each other - GC men saying they're not bothered, Sprinters waiting for someone to do the chasing.. And GVA could just have the power to stay away. It will be very hard though with that long, flat run-in. 

Michal Kwiatkowski won MSR this year and has won Amstel Gold in the past, he could ordinarily be one that you would fancy on a stage like this, but I think they will be just looking after Froome and Thomas tomorrow and he may not be given the freedom to go. Diego Ulissi could also fancy this but I think he'd prefer it if it finished at the 700m to go point rather than with a flattish sprint. Michael Albasini always has to be respected on a finish like this too, he'll be right up there amongst the leaders cresting the top of the steeper parts and has a decent kick on him against weaker sprinters. At 40/1 with PP he's worth an interest I think. 

Michael Valgren, Davide Cimolai, Daryl Impey, Fabio Felline and Tiesj Benoot are outsiders who could go well too at big prices. Valgren is an interesting one because of his performance on the Cauberg last year, at 125/1 he's worth a few pennies. 

So who wins then? Well Sagan looks the obvious pick, but I think he's very short and could be mugged by a better sprinter, and that sprinter could well be Arnaud Démare. I think he's flying at the moment and will take a lot of heart from his sprint today as he almost won. Remember also his performance in the first stage of Paris-Nice this year, when he attacked with Alaphilippe on the Cote de la Batterie, which was 1km at 6.5%, a very similar sort of hill to this one.

He won that stage and I think he could well have a great chace again tomorrow and he's a decent price at 14/1 with PP, 12/1 with others is ok too. Albasini is a good long shot at that price, but expect to see Sagan, Van Avermaet, Matthews and Gilbert involved in the scrap too. It should be a great finish to the stage, just a nightmare to pick a winner from!

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Arnaud Démare at 14/1 with PP

0.5pts each-way on Michael Albasini at 40/1 with PP

0.2pts each-way on Michael Valgren at 125/1 with PP

Matchbets:

Arnaud Démare to beat Degenkolb - 4pts at 8/15 with Bet365

Bouhanni to beat Kristoff - 2pts at 5/6

Albasini to beat Kwitakowskoi, Colbrelli to beat Swift - 3pts on the double at 11/10