Contenders and Favourites

Prices came out early for this stage which was good to help me get a head start on writing this preview! Bet365 priced it up on Wednesday with, as expected, Marcel Kittel the clear evens favourite. I expect nothing else other than a bunch sprint here, ok, there is a little bump with 20kms to go, but that should not be enough for the puncheurs to split the race and the sprint trains will bring it all back together again in plenty of time for a sprint. The sprint is pretty straight-forward too, there is the little kink right under the railway bridge with 3kms to go as you can see in the picture below, they come from the right, it tightens up a little through the bend but the exit out of it and under the railway bridge is quite wide.

The last 2kms are almost completely flat and straight as you can see in the picture on the right, it's not the widest of roads as it is effectively a dual carriageway, but there can't be many complaints in running - if you and your train are strong enough, then you should be near the front and out of trouble. It rises ever so slightly, but nothing to worry about at all.

This is going to be all about the power of trains and the power of the sprinters in the last 300m. And of course, that's why Marcel Kittel is the evens favourite. Quick-Step have a powerful squad built around Kittel, with Zdenek Stybar, Philippe Gilbert, Julian Vermote and Jack Bauer providing the grunt and the muscle in the last 10kms to keep Kittel safe near the front, Matteo Trentin and Fabio Sabbatini will take over in the last kilometre and deliver him at the front of the race ready to go with 250m to go. 

81 Pro wins in his career, 7 already this year, spread from a hat-trick in Dubai right at the start of the season to a win in the Ster ZLM tour two weeks ago, ahead of Groenewegen and Greipel. He is looking fit and confident and has been enjoying the buzz of the race being in his native Germany this week. And he rode a brilliant TT today to finish in 9th, just 16" behind Thomas. And his leadout man Trentin was even better in 5th place, so they are clearly flying. On the negative side is that it's not an entire team focused on him and the sprint, Dan Martin has GC ambitions and some of the team will be looking after him.

Also, Kittel can be very hit and miss with the first stage, he was expected to cruise it last year against an out-of-form Cavendish, only to be relegated to second behind the Manxman. He fared even worse on stage 3 to Angers, finishing way down in 7th place, his train and leadout were an absolute disaster that day, he was left to fare for himself way down the pack with 500m to go and got going way too late. He finally got off the mark in stage 4 with a win by the narrowest of margins against Bryan Coquard on the uphill sprint in Limoges. He missed the race in 2015, but it was a different matter in 2014 though when he won the first three sprint stages. It all comes down to the leadout I think for him, if they don't fire and it becomes a bit messy, Kittel could be swamped. Also, if it's a wet finish, we might see him back out of it, but he has won on wet roads in the past. 

His biggest rival could well be the new French road race champion, Arnaud Démare. Not only is Démare in flying form but the team are too and they have become a pretty competent leadout train for their main man. Davide Cimolai, Ignatis Konovolovas and Arthur Vichot will tow him in to the last 300m and he is so powerful he can surf wheels and get himself in to position to launch his powerful sprint and I think he will be right up there in the first three.

Dylan Groenewegen is ahead of the likes of Greipel, Cavendish and Bouhanni, but is it justified? Five wins for Groenewegen this year, two of which came just two weeks ago in the Ster ZLM, beating Greipel both times with Kittel way off the pace due to the hilly nature of the course. Kittel got his revenge later in the race though on a flatter stage. Groenewegen showed some real speed and power to pull away from Greipel, with the rest a long way back in the sprint. 

This is Groenewegen's second TDF after his debut in 2016, the closest he got last year though was 4th on stage 4, behind Kittel, Coquard and Sagan. He was not close to a podium in any of the other stages. Groenewegen has yet to take a really big win, his wins have all come in lower grade races like the Tour of Norway, Ster ZLM and Eneco Tour, he has been missing that something extra to get the win.

He has a powerful team with him though with Van Emden, Roglic, Leezer, Martens and Roosen to drive it in the last 5kms, they will be one of the stronger teams here for sure. Groenewegen will be up there I think, and the weather conditions will be in his favour, he doesn't mind a 'soft day' like this and his team, along with Quickstep, should be dominating at the front I think in the last 5kms. But bear in mind he came down in the TT today, he said though that he just had some scratches on his ass but he'd "Get over that" so maybe it wasn't too bad, but 6/1 is terribly short, I'd want 8-10/1 on him to back him each-way I think until he shows he can win at this level. 

We then have Peter Sagan, André Greipel and Mark Cavendish at 8/1 - three of the best sprinters in the world, it's normally hard to split them. Peter Sagan will like the tough and wet conditions, and if he sprints like he did in the Tour de Suisse he could beat all of these guys. But I think it might be just a bit too fast for him with the long, flat last 2kms, he'd prefer it a bit trickier and with a bit of a slope. Stage 3 looks far more up his street.. 

André Greipel hasn't been in superb form this year, with just 4 wins, two of which were good (Giro and Paris Nice) and two pretty low grade. He's been beaten far too often this year by guys he'd normally put away in his sleep, so it might be that we are starting to see the decline of the mighty gorilla as he approaches his 35th birthday (it's on stage 15).  His team is pretty strong and experienced, probably the most experienced team here, but they have been found wanting too many times this season for my liking, they just don't seem to be clicking and Greipel loses the wheel etc. Add in the fact it is the first sprint of the race and on wet roads and we might see Greipel back out of it a little. 

And Mark Cavendish.. so many mixed messages bouncing around this week - he's fine, he's ready, he's sharp.. he wouldn't call it a 'disaster' if he doesnt win any stages.. the illness he suffered was a bad blow at a bad time, they feared at the time he would not make the TDF, but he came back in time for the Tour of Slovenia and finished 2nd to Bennett on one stage, so looked in ok shape. But until I see how he goes tomorrow I am not touching him, and in fact I'm thinking of laying him to come in the top 3 or backing him to finish 10th or worse depending on the odds when they come out in play from Bet365. 

Nacer Bouhanni looks a big price at 16/1 to win this, he's a very fast sprinter in a flat, fast sprint like this one. He almost won the French Nationals again, but Démare was just too good for him. Again though his 4 wins this year have been lower level, with his defeat of Ewan and Groenewegen in the Tour of Yorkshire probably the best line of form. He was then concussed in a crash the next day and missed six weeks before returning in the Dauphiné where 3rd on stage 2 was the best he could manage, again behind Démare. The big concern for Bouhanni's chances though is the loss of Geoffrey Soupe and the addition of Nicolas Edet in to the squad rather than giving him another leadout man to help. Soupe was a vital cog in that leadout but abandoned the French Nationals citing fatigue and lack of form. It doesn't reflect well on Cofidis's expectations for Nacer that they are letting him a man light. 

And the prices of some of the rest are just ridiculously big. Alexander Kristoff at 28/1 (is out of form and won't like a flat drag race), Daniel McLay at 50/1 (still a second division sprinter), Michael Matthews looks massive at 66/1, considering he took a good stage in the TDS just a few weeks back, but he was beaten fair and square by Sagan and others. But he did a great TT today and so did his leadout man Nik Arndt, they look strong like the two Quickstep men.

John Degenkolb and Sonny Colbrelli at 66/1? Sounds like madness.. but Degenkolb has not been in great form this season and Colbrelli struggles against the very best like these guys. Adrien Petite will be sprinting for Direct Energie it would seem in the absence of Bryan Coquard - he is a massive 150/1. But at those kinds of prices they could be worth a nibble in case there are any crashes or splits on what could be a dicey first stage in the rain.

But it does look like it's Kittel's for the taking - QS should power to the lead inside the last 2kms and Trentin and Sabbatini will deliver him right on cue. At his best he should be too fast for all of these, but will he be at his best in this first road stage? Also, will he cope with the weather? Will all the hullabaloo of the race start in Germany have taken its toll on him? All those questions almost turned me off backing him at just 6/5, but I think his performance today showed me he is ready and super strong. Let's just hope they don't decide to go with Trentin for the stage to try to get him in to yellow!

I also think Arnaud Démare could hit the ground running here and will come close to Kittel, to kick off his challenge for the Green jersey! Greipel might be good enough for a podium too, Groenewegen for those 4th to 9th place bets in play. I'm also going to nibble at the bigger priced guys in case of carnage, they might get through at silly prices. 

Recommendations:

3pts on Marcel Kittel at 6/5 with PP

1pt each-way on Arnaud Démare at 5/1 with Bet365

0.2pts each-way on Michael Matthews at 66/1 with Ladbrokes

0.1pts each-way on Adrian Petite at 150/1 with Bet365

Matchbets:

Demare to beat Groenewegen and Kittel to beat Cavendish - 3pts at 9/10 with Bet365

Add in Matthews to beat McLay - 1pt on the treble at 2.1/1 with 365