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Published on Monday, 26 June 2017 21:23

TDF 2017 Stage 1

Dusseldorf (Ger)

Saturday July 1st, 13km ITT

The 2017 Tour de France starts with a short 13km TT around the streets of Dusseldorf, Germany in a significant move for the countries relationship with pro-cycling and the Tour de France.  

Following the doping scandals at Team Telekom, amongst all the rest of course, Germany backed away from pro cycling, to the extent that the national broadcasters pulled all coverage of the TDF in 2011. The stand-off has been mellowing in recent years though, with the success of German riders like Tony Martin, Marcel Kittel and André Greipel helping to lift cycling's status in Germany again. The broadcaster ARD picked up the broadcasting rights to the Tour in 2015 though for two years for just €5m and not only have the broadcasters fallen in love with the race again, but the ASO have recipricated the love by starting the 2017 Tour in Dusseldorf.

It will give big Tony a great opportunity to win a stage and pull on the yellow jersey in his home nation and you'd have to think he'll be basing his entire season around the 16 minutes or so that it will take him to complete the 13km course. He failed to win the TT in the Dauphiné, beaten by a rampaging Richie Porte, but he will surely be tuned to the last to try to deliver this one. 

He'll face some stiff competition though, with some of the best time triallists in the world lining up, including Chris Froome, Richie Porte and Primoz Roglic.There's no Rohan Dennis here though, he had been installed as the 2/1 second favourite behind Martin in Paddy Power's very early stage betting book, so that one major opponent out of the way for Martin. 

The Route

An almost totally flat stage that spends nearly 10kms of the 13km distance on the banks of the Rhine, or on bridges crossing it.. The only bumps on the profile below are where the road rises slightly to cross the two bridges. They start out from the Messe Dusseldorf and head along the banks on the northern side of the river for 4kms, then curve up and over the bridge to the south bank.

They head south and quickly cross back over the Rhinekniebrucke bridge, on to the Haroldstrasse where they turn sharply left and pass the intermediate time check with 8.1kms gone. A few lefts and rights and they are back on the Rotterdamer Strasse for the last 4kms on a flat, and flat out run to the line. 

Contenders and Favourites

Of course we have to start with the home favourite, Der Panzerwagen, Tony Martin. Four-time World Time Trial Champion, three-time winner of the Chrono des Nations, Five-times-in-a-row winner of the German Nationals, three-time winner of TTs in the TDF and double winner of stages in the Vuelta. After being narrowly beaten by Bradley Wiggins in the 2014 World Champs, Martin really disappointed on the hillier course in Richmond in the 2015 World's finishing down in 7th place. But he bounced back in style with a superb win in Qatar in 2016, beating Vasil Kiryienka by 45" and crushing pre-race favourite Rohan Dennis by 1'27". 

His results this year have been ok, but hadn't won a TT this year up until the German nationals, and he only just won that by 15" from Jasha Sutterlin. 2nd in the 18km TT in the Algarve to Jonathan Castroviejo, an understandable 21st in the hilly TT in Paris-Nice, 2nd in the Belgium Tour TT to Matthias Brandle and 2nd to a rampaging Richie Porte in the Dauphiné TT, which also slightly favoured the climber a bit more than Martin. I don't think he's too bothered about the results this year to date though, this is the one that matters. 

Sometimes unorthodox in his method (sandpaper on his saddle that ended up ripping his legs one time) Martin knows what it takes to win a TT like this and will be going flat out to take the yellow here. Sometimes on a city course I'd have been worried about lots of bends slowing down his diesel engine and allowing some of the nippier, faster types to gain back some advantage. But he shouldn't have any problems with this course. It's dead flat, and actually doesn't have too many bends, with lots of long, straight stretches - the first 4kms and last 4kms along the river are where he will crush it. He's just about shading favouritism at 2/1, he's sure to give his backers a good run for their money. 

LottoNL Jumbo have two livewires here too in Primoz Roglic and Jos Van Emden. Primus Roglic has shown what he is capable of already this year, winning the TT in Pais Vasco (over 27.7kms), Romandie (18.3kms) and the prologue in SterZM  (7.5kms). He continues to progress as a rider at a rapid rate and the former ski-jumper can rightly be found at the top end of the betting for a TT like this now, he's almost joint favourite with Martin, at 5/2. 

The Tirreno TT over 10kms was probably closer to what they'll be facing here, and there he finished only in 5th place, beaten by the flat-track bullies Dennis, Van Emden, Hepburn and Cummings. It may be that this course isn't perfectly suited to him, he'd prefer it a little hillier I think, but he is sure to put in a big showing. 

Jos Van Emden on the other hand is a lot more suited to this sort of course, he prefers them flat and without hills. He finished 2nd in that Tirreno TT, just 3" behind Dennis and 8" ahead of Roglic. He also did brilliantly in the final TT in the Giro in Milan, beating Dumoulin by 15" to win the stage, he was 8th in the other, longer TT on stage 10, that one didn't suit him so much. 

In the Dutch nationals TT championships last week he only finished 4th, 1'35" behind Dumoulin, but was also beaten by Stef Clement and Robert Gesink. That was over 50kms though and I think judging by his best results he goes much better over shorter distances. Prior to his win in the Giro though, it was almost a year exactly to his last win in a TT in the Ster ZLM and again before that it was almost a year also. He doesn't win often, but he is pretty consistent over shorter distances (2nd in last year's Eneco TT over 10kms) and 2nd in last years TT in Qatar (over 11kms) so he could be right up there again in this, and I'd honestly rather be on him each-way at 6/1 than Roglic at 5/2. 

Another big rival will probably be the man who beat Martin by 4" in that TT in the Algarve, Movistar's Spanish TT champion Jonathan Castroviejo. JC took that win in the Algarve, then finished 2nd to his team-mate Dowsett in the TT in the Circuit Cycliste Sarthe. He was only down in 7th in the TT in the Tour de Romandie, but that was quite a hilly one and he was beaten primarily by climbers, and in the TDS he finished 6th, but just 11" behind Dennis and just 2" behind Dumoulin. 

Now three-times Spanish TT champion, European Champion last year, 3rd and 4th in the Worlds - he changed his programme a little last year to lighten up and become more of an asset to the team leaders in the mountains, he didn't win a TT since winning the nationals in June 2015 for a year until the Euros win in September last year. His programme still seems to be to be as best a domestique as possible for Quintana and Valverde in the mountains, the kind of guy who gets in the breaks and then helps them when they bridge across on the attack late on in the stage. 

He is still one of the best TT'ers here though over a distance like this and on a flat course. He crushed the opposition in the Spanish nationals just last week, showing how strong he is, he is sure to be in the top 6, maybe the top 3 and on a really, really good day, could take Martin again like he did in the Algarve. At 22/1 he's a good bet with Bet365, he's only 12/1, more what I'd thought he'd be, with Skybet. 

Stefan Kung is in superb form at the moment, having just taken the Swiss TT championships, winning it by 57" from Silvan Dillier. Before that he finished 2nd in both the TTs of the Tour de Suisse. In the first 6km flat TT he finished just 8" behind Dennis and in the second, longer 28.6km, hillier TT he finished 29" behind his team-mate. He also won a stage in the Tour de Romandie just before that so the legs are in great shape. But 6/1 is a lot shorter than I was expecting, was hoping for 10/1 or bigger.. I think that's just a little too short, but he is sure to go close. 

Michal Kwiatkowski absolutely hammered some decent time triallists in Marcin Bialblocki and Maciej Bodnar (winners in the previous two years) in the Polish TT championships a few weeks back, winning by 1'15"..  He regained his title he last won in 2014, but he also finished 2nd in 2013 and 2012. Kwiat was in excellent form in the spring, winning Strade Bianche, Milan San Remo and finishing 2nd in Amstel Gold Race and 3rd in LBL. He rode well in the Dauphine, coming back after a 6 week training block preparing for the Tour, helping Froome build up the lead on Porte in the valley before the Solaison climb. He has good legs, but I'm not sure he'll be going full gas here, he'll have his eye on some stages and the job in hand later in the race. I'm not interested in him at just 22/1.

Chris Froome of course knows that the race is not won or lost in this short TT right at the start of the race, but he'll be going all out to land a blow against his rivals. In the Vuelta TT last year over 37kms he beat Castroviejo by a wide 44" margin and the 3rd placed rider Ludviggson by nearly a minute and a half. By that sort of margin, he should beat Castroviejo by 15" or so here, but it doesn't work in a straight line like that, Froome goes better over a longer course. 

Winner of the Dauphiné TT in 2014 over a similar flat course and distance (10.4kms), 2nd in the 37km Tour TT to Dumoulin in stage 13 last year, but a full minute and 3 seconds behind him, he still beat the likes of Dennis by 38" and Martin by 1'02".  He is effective over short and long distances, but he hasn't really shone this year so far in his TTs, and didn't look great in the Dauphiné just gone. 9th in the 18km TT in Romandie, 38" behind Porte and 46" behind Roglic, 8th in the Dauphiné, 37" behind Porte and 25" behind Martin. Hard to know what sort of Froome turns up here, but I'm not backing him and am tempted to lay him for a top 3 place too, I think a few will be too fast for him. 

Former World Champion Vasil Kiryienka still commands respect, despite only winning one TT since the Chrono des Nations in October 2015, and that was the Chrono Des Nations in 2016, beating his only serious rival there, Castroviejo by just 5". When he won the CDN in 2015, it was just a month after becoming World Champion, but it seems he has really taken his foot off the gas at times since that superb win, almost as if he has nothing to prove any more. 

Ok, he finished 2nd in the World's last year, but other than that, a lot of his TTs have been pretty mediocre and some were downright disgraceful as he pottered around courses not giving a shit, saving himself for the Skytrain. I have warned off backing him plenty of times in the past, yet he continues to be priced up like a good thing by most bookies. As for this one? Well 4th, 5th, 7th, 7th, 8th are his best results this year, and with the LPDBF stage coming just 4 days later will he be allowed go full gas? Maybe, maybe not.. but I think another 4th to 8th place finish for him, so no bet at 33/1.

Richie Porte is going so well at the moment he might go close to a top 3 position in this too. When Roglic was winning the Tour of Romandie a month ago, Richie was only 8" behind, with Castroviejo 41" back and Froome 46" back and it was enough for him to take the overall. He then went to the Dauphiné and destroyed the field over the 23km course, beating Tony Martin, who was something like 4/7 to win it, by 12" and Froome by 37". 

His form in TTs can be very hit and miss and often depends on whether he has something to fight for or not. He is in the form of his life as far as I can see and he is going to be fighting for every second in this race, right from the start I think. There is no more Mr. Nice Guy hopefully from Porte and he needs to put in a big ride in this I think to lay down a marker early on. He should come close to a podium and 25/1 looks tempting..  

King of the 10 mile TT in the UK, Alex Dowsett should enjoy this course, it's the perfect distance for him and he's sure to be going flat out in this, knowing that he will be working for the two leaders for the rest of the race. He will have been very disappointed to lose to 36-year old Stevo Cummings in the British TT champs, going down by only 8", so this could be a chance for some redemption. 

His young team-mate Jasha Sutterlin ran Tony Martin close for the German TT title for the second year running, and it looks like it's only a matter of time before he's pulling on that jersey himself. In the Eneco Tour last year over 9.6 flat kilometres he finished 3rd, just 14" behind Dennis and he has won a few TTs at younger age levels, including the German U23 title. 

Over a shorter distance like this you could see some surprises too, with some of the sprinters like Michael Matthews or Marcel Kittel posting good times, they will be going hard to try to finish as close to the winner as possible, as they could take the yellow jersey with bonus seconds in the stages that follow. Matthews in particular could be eyeing up the jersey, he is capable of an excellent TT - so far this year he has finished 7th up the Paris Nice TT to Mont Brouilly, and that included probably a 20" loss as he crashed with about 500m to go. He also finished 6th in the TT in Pais Vasco, 4th in the 6km first TT in TDS and 16th in the 28.6km TT at the end. Watch out for a big ride from him. 

And you also have Nelson Oliveira, Ion Izagirre, Maciej Bodnar, New Belgian TT champ Yves Lampaert, Geraint Thomas, Fabio Felline, Double British Chamption Steve Cummings and Luke Durbridge who could all go well too, but I think they will struggle to break the top 6. 

You know, Martin probably will win.. the fairytale result for the Germans and German TV and the ASO.. But I've learned the hard way over the years that the most likely, fairytale result doesn't always happen. Martin will be under a lot of pressure to deliver and he has just been beaten in TTs in the Dauphiné and the Belgium Tour. Roglic should be close, but is too short also, I prefer Van Emden at over twice his price. I also think we could get some outsiders gatecrashing the party, and without going mad on the first day, I'm having some small stakes on Castroviejo and Porte just because of the price they are. 

Just a note on the prices though below, I'm publishing this preview nice and early on Monday night when only a few bookmakers have prices out, there might be higher prices out later in the week, they may be lower too.. These prices look ok to me right now. 

UPDATE - 22:45 30/6/2017 - It looks like it is going to be raining for most of the afternoon tomorrow, with mixed forecasts out there depending on which website you look at. But most say that whatever rain will fall will probably be the same for all riders more or less, but it might dry up a little for the later starters. Most of the favourites and GC favourites are starting quite late, all except Castroviejo who is going out much earlier than I expected, not sure why that is. Porte is 17th last off, he goes before Kung, which is a bit strange too, Kung must really fancy it. I'm sticking with Van Emden though, he has been supported and is in to about 4/1 now, hopefully he can get us off the mark tomorrow. I've added some matchbets now below. 

Recommendations:

1pt e/w on Jos Van Emden at 6/1 with Skybet

0.3pts each-way on Richie Porte at 25/1 with Bet365

0.3pts each-way on Jonathan Castroviejo at 22/1 with Bet365

Matchbets

Porte to beat Froome - 3pts at 4/6 with Bet365

Cummings to beat Thomas, Quintana to beat Dan Martin and Matthews to beat Boasson Hagen - 3pts at 2/1 with Bet365