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Published on Friday, 19 August 2016 23:10

Vuelta Team Classification

Who will win the team prize?

The Team Classification prize should be a very tight contest this year. The top GC teams are packed with top quality riders, there's not a lot of difference in terms of quality and they will all be fighting for every place on every stage.

This is an unusual one in that even though it’s called the ‘team’ classification, it’s only the top 3 riders on each stage’s time that is calculated for the purposes of the Team Classification. This means that you will see riders for teams like Movistar and Cannondale who are maybe 2-3 minutes behind the winners on a mountain stage fighting all the way to the line for what appears to be a lost cause. 

Luck can play a big part in this competition too, as a puncture, crash or mechanical for a team leader can see many members of the squad hold back to look after him and the whole squad can lose a lot of time as a result. Also, if a team loses a leader, like Sky did with Landa at the Giro, you can almost forget about  them winning, as the focus and drive of the team evaporates.

Movistar won this race by half an hour last year and the year before Katusha won it by almost 40 minutes - and Movistar look strong favourites to take it again this year. 

Movistar – 10/11 favourites

I picked Movistar for the Team classification in the Tour, they did the business for us. I picked for this last year at 7/2, they did the business then too - and I don't see any reason to desert them this year either. Quintana will be going for GC, will be going for stages and will be a top finisher on most stages. Valverde is a picture of consistency and will finish high up on all the mountain stages. Ably backed up by Herrada, Erviti, Moreno, Sutherland, Castroviejo, Fernandez and Rojas, there are riders in there who will be on the attack in breaks and can make good time that way too. Herrada, Moreno, Valverde and Quintana will score well for them and I think they could take an early lead in this competition in the first week and it'll be hard to peg them back. I started writing this preview around Wednesday, they were 10/11 with Bet365, they are now 8/11 but are evens with Corals and Ladbrokes and that is worth taking. 

Cannondale – 6/1

It's not often you see Cannondale the second favourite for a team prize in a Grand Tour, ahead of BMC and Astana in the betting, but this is a strong looking Cannondale team with a number of good climbers and attackers in the team who can claim good times for them on multiple stages. I expect a big ride from Talansky in this race and he could do well on a number of stages, and in the ITT towards the end of the race. Joe Dombrowski will attack and do well on the mountain stages, there could be a stage win in him too. Paddy Bevin, Pierre Rolland, Moreno Moser, Ben King, Davide Formolo, I think we will see them up the road on all sorts of stages and could climb nicely up the team classification. 

Team Sky – 15/2

Froome should do well of course, but overall I think they don't have a great team for this competition, no Mikel Landa is a big loss for them. They still do have Kennaugh, Knees, Kwiatkowski, Lopez, Puccio, Golas, Boswell, but I think only maybe Lopez and Konig will be scoring highly in the mountains, the others will drop away once their jobs are done.  

BMC – 9/1

Darwin Atapuma will go well, both on the climbs he decides to stay with the GC men and on the days he decides to go on the attack. Van Garderen could be anything in this race, but says that he is not here for the GC and will be stage hunting. That will be good on some stages, but bad on others of course. Gilbert will be on the attack some days, but otherwise will be useless from the point of view of this competition. Ben Hermans and Danilo Wyss might do ok, but I can't see how they will consistently place enough guys high up on stages to win this, or even finish in the first 3.  

Astana – 12/1

A strong team, led by 'Superman' Lopez, who I expect to have a big race this year. Ably supported by the old warhorse Scarponi and with the likes of Gruzdev, Malacarne, Sanchez, Vanotti and Zeits they will have guys for all sorts of stages, but I think they will just fall short..  

LottoNL-Jumbo - 16/1

These could be the dark horses though - Kruijswijk, Gesink, Bennett, Battaglin, these guys could go well all race and we could see Kruijswijk, Gesink and Bennett right up there with the GC men on most stages. Depending on how they go in the GC, they could well also be on the attack some stages and can gain time that way too. Jos Van Emden will do well in the TT too and I think they might go well at a bigish price. 

And that's about it, no other team is going to come close to the top 3 here I think, and Movistar are going to be hard to beat. It will be a close one between Sky, Cannondale and LottoNL-Jumbo for the other two steps on the podium, but there isn't each-way betting available, and even if there was, there's little value available. 

Recommendation:

5pts win on Movistar at Evens with Ladbrokes