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Published on Friday, 09 September 2016 23:08

Vuelta Stage 20

Benidorm to Alto de Aitana

Sat 10th Sept, 193.2kms 

The Vuelta comes to a climax with a brutally hard finale, a last chance to shake up the GC top ten?. A long stage at 193kms, that passes over the Rates, Ebo, Tollos and Tudons climbs, culminating in the HC Alto de Aitana. 

Well that was pretty disappointing today.. Lampaert beat Campenaerts early on, despite Campenaerts setting what looked like a good time.. It was the only one of the six-fold to go down, the others weren't even close. Felline did a good ride to finish 9th, but it wasn't good enough to beat Ludvigsson who finished 3rd, a far better result than I expected. 

Castroviejo looked like he had put in a pretty decent time, beating the previous best by some 42", but then Froome came out travelling as fast as the team bus in yesterday's hoo-ha video and just blew him to pieces. It was a quite stunning TT from a 'tiring' Froome at the end of a hard season.. He just never relented, from the start ramp to the last metre. He was already some 30" up on Quintana by the first time check and by the end it was 2'16", and as a result he narrowed the time gap to 1'21" going in to the final stage. 

On the face of it, that was a poor result for Quintana, but the reality is that he did a pretty good ride - 11th, just 19" behind Contador wasn't a bad ride at all, just 22" behind Talansky. Contador did ok in 8th, but he did all he needed to do and no more - he beat Chaves by 1'16" and leaped over him in to 3rd place. Just as well we had that saver on him at 7/1 around stage 7.. 

The Alto de Aitana is a special category climb, 21km long with almost 1,300 metres of climbing, a climb that averages 5.9%, but varies in pitch along the way, finishing with gradients of 8-10% in the final 2kms. This is going to be a savage final stage, along the mould of the final stage last year when Astana and Aru finally cracked Tom Dumoulin to take the race.

Not only did Dumoulin crack, he lost so much time he slipped from 1st to 6th, crushing the hopes of anyone who had backed him each-way at big odds before the race. The organisers will no doubt be hoping for a repeat of such drama with the race still up for grabs, and it could all be decided on the final few kilometres of the final climb to Aitana if Froome goes full Landis on us. And it's not just the win that's there to be fought over, but places all down the top 10..  

And it is possible - as we saw in the Giro already this year, riders who are extremely fatigued coming in to the last few days of a hard Grand Tour can suddenly crack and slide down the GC. Esteban Chaves looked like he might take the title but he suffered on the penultimate stage and went from having a 44" lead to a 52" deficit by the end of the stage. Hard to see Nairo or Froome suffering that sort of slide, Contador probably not, but Yates or Chaves could.. And you'd never know, maybe Cannondale and Talansky will try something like in the Critérium du Dauphiné in 2014 when he went on the attack and stole the race off of Froome and Contador! 

The Route

A stage with a start and finish that is only a stone's throw apart, but in between leaving Benidorm and arriving at the Alto de Aitana they pass over four more climbs, making it a total of 53.2kms of climbing. They start in the holiday resort of Benidorm and after a little run along they coast they turn north and start heading inland.

They start climbing after only 18kms, starting on the double-peaked climb of the Cat 2 Coll de Rates. It's 13kms long at an average of 3%, but that totally masks the true gradient of this climb as it climbs first for 5.5%, then they spin along the plateau at the top for nearly 5kms before a final kick up to the summit and the KOM points. This will be the launching point for the breakaway attempts, including those team-mates who might be needed to support team leaders later in the stage.

After a 13km descent and 10kms of flat, they start on the second Cat 2 climb of the day, the Alto de Vall de Ebo, 8kms at 5.4% - after a very short descent they start climbing again, and although the Alto de Tollos is officially only 4.1kms at 5.9%, they are actually climbing for the best part of 18kms by the time they reach the top. They roll down and up for the next 19kms, pass through the intermediate sprint at Alcol and go over another, uncategorised climb shortly after.

At the foot of the descent off that hill they start climbing again, 13kms in total, but again, the categorised part (Cat 2) of the Puerto de Tudons is actually only 7.1kms at an average of 5.3% - this should be where we start to see things really kick off with teams looking to thin things out ahead of the final climb.

After 24kms of a very fast and tricky descent, they do a little loop and start climbing again - and they actually start climbing back up the descent of the Tudons which they have just come down. They climb for nearly 16kms on the Tudons, at an average of around 4.8%, then turn right at the top and carry on climbing up to the summit of the Aitana. The final part is 6.5kms at 8.2% average gradient, with parts hitting over 9%, with the final 500m at 9.5%.

Contenders and Favourites

This stage was packed with drama last year and if it is anything like as dramatic as that we are in for another treat. The stage looks like it has been designed to encourage attacking racing again and I wouldn't be surprised to see Alberto Contador try something again on this stage. The big difference between this one and the stage to Formigal is that this one is 65kms longer at 193.5kms. This might prevent all-out attacking from the start, and so a break will form early. And once again, will they, won't they?

Some riders will have been resting more or less all this week to have a go here - rolling in on each of the past few stages and taking it easy in the TT. It's last chance saloon for most guys so expect a fast and furious start over the first 30kms, and I think it's very likely we will see Omar Fraile riding alongside the wing mirrors of the commissaire's car in the neutralised zone, ready to kick things off right from the start like he did last Sunday. He wants that jersey, we want him to win that jersey, but so does Elissonde - he will be his shadow all day. 

There's only 3pts between them and if Fraile can outsprint Elissonde again for the first three Cat 2 climbs (which he should) then he will take a 3pts lead - it could all come down to who does better over the last Cat 2 with 150kms gone! It could well be that the peloton, or some other attackers have caught them by then, so it could be all over if Fraile can take all three wins. He just has to get in the break, but he won't win, he'll be knackered with 40kms to go again probably, but hopefully he has the job done by then. I don't think anyone else will challenge for the KOMs, and in fact I wouldn't be surprised to see Geniez or someone else from FDJ and Van Rensburg or someone else from DDD in the break with their men in order to lead them out and maybe stop their rivals taking points. 

So Elissonde is almost guaranteed to get in the break, but he probably won't win either, and Geniez will probably fade away again too once his job is done. Other break candidates? Well Robert Gesink is obviously riding really well at the moment too and has no reason to sit in the bunch all day (unless he is really tired after Wednesday's ride) so I'd expect him to be in the break too. If he can get to the final climb with 3 minutes on the peloton then he has a chance of another top result.

Matthias Frank clearly is riding really strongly at the moment too and took a brilliant stage win on stage 18 up that wall of a climb. He held off a charging Konig and Gesink (who had team-mates helping with the chase) and kept going really strongly all the way to the line. This final climb should suit him even better than the steep slopes and he could have a big chance on this stage too, unless that win took too much out of him, but I think he looks ok.

Can Darwin Atapuma get in the break and try to win a stage right at the death? He had a great start to the Vuelta but has been really quiet since then, we've barely seen him since. Can he finally get up the road in a decent break and give himself a shot at the stage win? I'm hoping he's been saving himself for this stage, and at 50/1 he might be worth a shot. His team-mate Ben Hermans has been in superb form in this Vuelta too and he doesn't look to have gone full gas today in the TT. I think he could also try to get away with Atapuma, or even on his own, and he will be going strong right at the finish. At 40/1 he's not a bad price.  

And my old friend Gianluca Brambilla has a chance on a stage like this, he should be up for making the break I think and he should be able to handle the four Cat 2s along the way. If he arrives at the finish in good shape with a 2-3 minute lead starting the climb I think he could have a big chance of taking the stage, he would outsprint the likes of Gesink and Frank if they are in the break too based on his performance last Sunday. I think Etixx will send at least one other rider with him to help him, someone like Lampaert who was so strong today in the TT, or Maxime Bouet and it could be all set up nicely for him. At 25/1 with Ladbrokes he's worth a shot, he's only 14/1 elsewhere. 

Egor Silin has been riding really well and has been very active, as has his team-mate Matvey Mamikin - I think they should both be up for making the break and would come close to winning this too. Lotto are still stage-less and really need to try to get a few riders in the break too - Louis Vervaeke keeps saying that he is up for getting in the break, and said two days ago that he was going to really try.. but failed. He is not a bad time triallist at all, but finished 13th last, 8'35" down on Froome.. can only mean one thing I think and that's to go all in tomorrow. 100/1 is worth a small investment.   

The last guy on the stage today was Joe Dombrowski - he too was on a day off and he should be in the break tomorrow too, along with maybe Pierro Rollando or maybe Moser or King. At 80/1 with PP he's in the team too tomorrow. 

So loads of guys will be in the break, it should be brilliant to watch from the start, as the whole stage is being broadcast live. I think the break has a big chance of making it - the GC men will be saving themselves for an all out battle on the final climb and Movistar will be happy to let it go - if the break takes all the points, Valverde takes the Green jersey. Also, I wouldn't be surprised to see Valverde even try and get in the break, if it's a large group then he has a chance. He can then take the 3 intermediate points and he might be safe. 

I've scattered a bunch of breakaway guys below and I would hope at least some of them will make it. If they don't make it then we will have a hell of a battle up the final climb. Froome has to attack, he has said he will attack, but good luck with shaking Quintana off your wheel Chris! So far he has been under pressure on a lot of the climbs, but always hung in there and even nipped past Quintana and Chaves on the line on stage 17. Quintana will just play defensively tomorrow and mark wheels, I don't know if he will win the stage, he will be happy to roll over the line with a big smile and secure the win. 

Recommendations -

1pt each-way on Gianluca Brambilla at 25/1 with Ladbrokes

0.25pts each-way on Mathias Frank at 50/1 with Bet365

0.25pts each-way on Joe Dombrowski at 80/1 with PP

0.25pts each-way on Darwin Atapuma at 50/1 with Ladbrokes

0.25pts each-way on Louis Vervaeke at 100/1 with Paddy Power 

0.25pts each-way on Ben Hermans at 40/1 with Bet365

Matchbets

Talansky to beat Peraud, Hermans to beat Monfort, Latour to beat Meintjes, Gesink to beat Elissonde - 2pts on the treble at 3.87/1 with Bet365

Daniel Moreno to beat Davide Formolo - 2pts at 8/11 with Ladbrokes

Latour to beat Meintjes - 2pts at 4/6 with Ladbrokes