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Published on Tuesday, 06 September 2016 00:06

Vuelta Stage 17

Castellón to Llucena

Wed 7th Sept, 177.5km 

Following the second rest day, we have a 177.5-kilometre stage with another high-altitude finish to the Mas de la Costa, in Llucena. It's short at just 4km long, with an average gradient of 13% but with slopes of up to 22% it may cause problems for some.

The Vuelta brings new and spectacular climbs to the world every year, and this year the new finish to the Alto Mas de La Costa in Llucena is sure to be spectacular, with slopes of up to 21% inside the last 2kms and an average of 11% for the duration of the 4kms. With three other climbs along the way, it looks like a good day for the breakaway's chances. 

Bit of a surprise today then with Jempy Drucker pulling his finger out and winning a sprint.. Etixx looked to have had everything under control coming to 2kms to go, after hiding away for most of the last 10kms and letting Giant and Bora-Argon fight it out. But they seemed to blow up very early, with Stybar releasing Meersman to the front with about 500m to go.. he looked like he didn't know what to do and weaved across the road, waiting for someone else to take it up, but no one wanted to, so he was forced to from a long way out. 

Drucker, Selig and Arndt came by him in the last 50m, Selig almost landing the stage at 300/1.. Meersman weakening in the last 20m cost the 3pt matchbet, which was very annoying, but it was great to see that I was spot on with the prediction on Felline not sprinting and Reijnen getting a go, even though Cort Nielsen failed to get involved in the sprint and finished 32nd, he still beat Felline who rolled in at the back of the first group in 49th. And Reijnen was indeed up there, taking 8th, and I think he was unlucky, as he seemed to come in to shot at the finish going really fast.. The big bet on Cort limited the loss to about 4pts but we should have been ahead if Meersman had managed to hang on to beat Arndt! I really debated backing Mazin over Van Der Sande after reading about his crash, he was something like 6/4 in the H2H, but I didn't.. I'm annoyed I didn't now, but it was close enough in the end with TVDS managing 9th and Manzin 5th.  

The Route

After leaving Castellon they first head towards the coast, then head north-east to Benacasim before turning inland and over the Cat 2 Alto del Desierte de las Palmas, 7.3kms at 5.1%. They head south before looping back north again and after 68kms start on the second Cat 2 climb, the Alto de la Sarratella, a longer climb at 14.3kms, and an easier climb at just 3.7%. They continue to head north-west, and loop around to head south-west again, crossing over the Cat 3 Alto de Benasal. 

After a 15km descent they then roll along for 40kms or so, climbing up to the intermediate sprint at Llucena, which comes with less than 10kms to go. The final climb to the Alto Mas de la Costa is a Cat 1 climb, which, although is very short at only 4kms, it's brutally hard, averaging over 11% and frequently hitting slopes of well in to the double digits, of 18, 19, 20 and 21%. The last kilometre continues at a really steep gradient, with the last few hundred metres averaging 16%.

Contenders and Favourites

This is a hard one to predict again as the race dynamic has now changed again. Movistar no longer have to try to beat up all of the opposition and grind them in to the ground to try to give Quintana a shot of attacking and taking time, he doesn't need to do that any more.. So the break will go and have a big chance today I think - who is going to chase? Sky look absolutely cooked, although they have basically had three rest days in a row now. And I don't think Froome will be able to shake off Quintana anyway so why waste energy?

The one thing to remember though is the old 'how will they respond after a rest day?' question.. Last time after the rest day Froome came out and won the stage on the Pena Cabarga, with riders scattered all over the mountain. Some will respond worse than others after two hard weeks of racing, but at the same time it has almost been like three rest days for some and that might also add to the uncertainty about how they will react to having to race hard again. 

Maybe Orica BE will chase, Esteban Chaves has been looking strong and was able to attack away from the chasing group on Formigal on stage 15, and gained almost a minute on Froome. This sort of finish will suit Chaves too I think so he'd have to be up there in the selections for today. The bookies have made him the 4th favourite (best price 14/1) behind Froome, Quintana and Brambilla, who are all around 7-8/1 and he might offer some value there as Froome and Quintana mark each other out of it and punch and counter punch.. 

Gianluca Brambilla is too short now I think at 9/1 best price, I think this may be a little too steep for him. Sunday's stage was perfect for him with the final 2kms averaging 7%, this is a different ball game altogether with the slopes of 15-21% in the last 2kms.. I don't think that suits him as much and I think he might struggle a bit on it. He was looking supremely strong on Sunday though and very confident so you'd never know. But if he gets in the break of the day again, which is possible based on his ambition on Sunday, then he will have a great chance should they make it all the way.

Simon Yates crashed today so I'm not taking any chances with him even though he rode so well on Saturday to almost catch the leaders. Better to wait and see how he goes and maybe look to back him again later in the race. 

Chris Froome needs to try something, he needs to try to pull back some time, but this is a very short final climb at only 4kms to be trying to pull back lots of time on someone like Quintana, who actually seems to be climbing better than him. But a 20" gap and a 10" time bonus will put him back to around 3 minutes behind Quintana and it could then all come down to the final climb on the penultimate stage! I can't see it tomorrow though, Froome looked a beaten man on Sunday... but how many times have we seen him flip that on its head before.. 

But what about the rest of the Sky team? Leopold Konig has been climbing really well but has been spat out of the top ten in no uncertain terms after Sunday when he rolled in with the stragglers. This might free him up to attack on a stage like this, especially if Froome may have already given up hope of pulling back lots of time on Quintana.. Same goes for some of the other guys too like David Lopez (although he has looked one of the weaker of the Sky boys), Salvatore Puccio and Pete Kennaugh. They are big prices, but I can't see it to be honest. 

Contador and Valverde are 18s, but I can't see either of them winning it, Contador just isn't up to beating Froome or Quintana, and even Chaves, he will be 5th to 10th again I think, one for the Bet365 'finishing positions' bet in-play if they offer it I think. Valverde has been struggling lately and his target now is the Green Jersey, so I think we'll see him being pulled in to position for the intermediate sprint with less than 10kms to go and he might just work a little for Quintana after that and pull over after that. But that requires the break to have been pulled back before then, which might mean that Movistar do indeed take up the chasing in the last 50kms. 

Of the breakaway candidates, with two Cat 2s and a Cat 3 out on the road, expect Omar Fraile and Kenny Elissonde to be in the early break as they look to fight it out for the jersey. There's only 8pts between the two of them, so all to play for, if Fraile beats Elissonde to the first 3 KOMS he will pull the lead back to just 3pts. If either of them don't make it in the break but the other does, I think it's all over. Fraile is usually screwed by the end of stages though lately, so I won't be backing him, but Kenny might be alright.. I'm not taking a chance on him this time though. 

Of the break candidates I like though, maybe it's finally time for Tom de Gendt to finally go in the break, it wouldn't be a Grand Tour without a TDG breakaway. This is his kind of stage I think and Lotto really need to try to get something out of this race soon. Louis Meintjes rode really well under the radar on stage 15, finishing in 11th with Sanchez, Moreno and Talansky, 30" ahead of Froome. He is 48 minutes down so will get freedom, and with stages running out, this could be one for him to try something. At 50/1 with Skybet he's worth a small bet I think.

Ben Hermans could be another to have a go here too, he's been riding really well this race and sits in 15th, but is nearly 12 minutes down. BMC will probably send a man in the break too to preserve their lead in the team prize if the break makes it, and he's a likely candidate at 33/1 with PP. Maxime Monfort at 150/1 looks interesting as well, he's due joining a break. Bart de Clerq has started to ride better after recovering from his crash, but wasn't able to stay with Gesink and co on the Aubisque, I'm not sure he'll be able to stay with sharper climbers than him again this time. 

And speaking of Robert Gesink, if there's a break goes, chances are he'll be in it again as he looks one of the strongest guys left in the race for a stage like this. After being just 12/1 for stage 15, he's 33/1 for today's stage, and that's worth a go too I think as he'll be one of the last men standing when they hit the final climb. 

But it's going to be touch and go as to whether they can hang on or not - it all depends on whether Movistar and some of the other GC teams decide they want to pull it back in time for the intermediate sprint maybe. Then if they do pull it back it could be all out war again on the final climb. Froome needs to attack, Contador will attack to try to leapfrog on to the podium and Chaves will be trying to protect his 5" lead over Bertie. Quintana can mark everyone, and could even attack at the end to stamp his authority on the race and gain more time on Froome. 

I've scattered a few breakaway riders around and if it comes to the GC men, I think Chaves might finally pull off a big one that he's been threatening.  

Recommendations -

1pt each-way on Esteban Chaves at 14/1 with PP

0.25pts each-way on Ben Hermans at 25/1 with various (33/1 is gone)

0.4pts each-way on Robert Gesink at 33/1 with Ladbrokes 

0.35pts each-way on Louis Meintjes at 50/1 with Skybet

0.35pts each-way on Thomas de Gendt at 33/1 with Corals

Matchbets

Valverde to beat Moreno, Elissonde to beat Fraile, Chaves to beat Yates - 2pts at 1.8/1 

Meintjes to beat Silin - 2pts at 8/11 with Bet365