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Published on Thursday, 01 September 2016 23:34

Vuelta Stage 14

Dantxarinea to Aubisque

Sat 3rd Sept, 196kms 

Except for the first few kilometres, today's stage will take place entirely on French territory. It is the Queen stage of this year's Vuelta, with four mountain passes in the last 130km, over some of the most famous French climbs.

The stage sees them first tackle the Col Inharpu (Cat 2), with several kilometres at a gradient of over 10% on a very narrow road and then the Col de Soudet (Cat 1), with very steep parts and over 1000m of climbing. Next they take on the Marie Blanque (Cat 1), a wall with the final 4kms at a thigh-bursting 11.5% and, finally, the Col d'Aubisque, a Haute Category climb, a Tour classic that is almost 17km long with an average gradient of 7%.

In total they will climb around 4,800m, making this one of the most demanding stages in the history of the race. It is going to be one of the most demanding, punishing and crucial stages of the whole Vuelta and will separate the final contenders from the also-rans. 

Got it wrong today then, maybe should have thought more about how they would take it easy today with the big stage tomorrow.. Didn't expect the gap to jump to well over 20 minutes though, and 35 minutes by the time they rolled across the line at the end. And of course as they rolled in in one big lump the matchbets were a total lottery and of course, just to cap off a bad day, they lost too. 

Onwards then, Valverde continues to pick up points though and is now 4/7 for the green, but man did that break today totally screw up the Team Classification - as the main group rolled in 34 minutes down, teams like BMC, Astana and Etixx have shot well clear of Movistar, with BMC now the 4/9 favourites to take the prize! Movistar are still second favourites but are 22'21" behind now.. The KOM battle is wide open still and tomorrow could go a long way to deciding who gets it.  

The Route

They leave the arrival town from stage 13 of Urdax-Dantxarinea and almost immediately cross the border in to France heading north-east, and at Cambo-Les-Baines they turn and start heading south-east. After 51kms they start on the first climb of the day, the Col Inharpu, a tough introduction to the day's climbing being 11kms long at an average of 7.2%, but with several sections at 10%. 

A 13km descent, 10kms on the flat and they start on to the second climb, the Col du Soudet - another Cat 1 climb, the longest climb of the day at 24kms long, at an average of 5.3%. 38kms later and they are on to the Col de Marie Blanque, an icon of the Tour de France. Another Cat 1 climb of 9.2kms at an average of 7.5%, but it gets steeper near the top with the last 3.2kms averaging 10.6%

There's less than 40kms to go from the top of the Marie Blanque so the speed and pressure is sure to be ramped up to thin out the peloton ahead of the final ascension up the Aubisque. The climbing starts with 26kms to go but the categorised part starts just after the intermediate sprint in Laruns which comes with 18kms to go. The Aubisque is a brute - 16.4kms at 7.2%. There are a few sections at 10%, but generally it's a pretty steady, constant 8-9% for the last 10kms of the stage. 

Contenders and Favourites

Break or GC men? The old question again.. Well you might remember I said two stages ago that Omar Fraile would probably not go on the attack as there were no chance of points, well today is very different.. Today is a day with lots of points on offer long before the final climb, with three Cat 1s in the first 160kms.. It's probably going to take 50+kms for the break to form in what should be an extremely fast and furious opening to the stage, as there are going to be a lot of guys wanting to be in the break of the day.

This means that Fraile, if he can get in the break, has a good chance of picking up many points towards the KOM jersey, it's not something that Nairo is going to be worried about today, that's for sure. The question is with Fraile though, will he have enough energy left for the Aubisque after chasing points all day? I think they'll need 4 minutes or more starting the Aubisque as the GC men will step on the gas in a fight for overall glory on the Queen stage's finish if they are withing catching distance. Fraile has been climbing better and better though and did really well to hang on with Froome and Quintana on the Lagos de Covadonga, so he definitely has a chance tomorrow. 

Alexandre Geniez might have one eye on the KOM jersey now too as he sits just 3pts behind Lagutin. He too is climbing well and has already a 1st and a 6th place in the race. Being French, claiming a stage win on a stage that goes over the Marie Blanque and finishes on the Aubisque will be a massive target you'd think, and if he happens to take the KOM jersey on the same day in France, all the better. He has to be a candidate for the break too you'd think and has a shot at the stage too - the 50/1 with Bet365 has to be taken, he's half that price with Paddy Power.

Luis Angel Maté also has been going well and has been frustrated that he hasn't done better so far.. He too is only 6pts off the KOM lead and I can see him try his luck in the break too. At 125/1 with PP he's one to put in the list too. Kenny Elissonde has been active too lately and getting in a lot of breaks, he suddenly appeared in 7th place in the KOM list, just 8pts off the lead after being in the break again on Thursday. Like Geniez, this could be a big target for him and I think he will be trying his utmost to get in the break again. He's very short at 20/1 though, but I think he may well make the break so is worth a small bet, with maybe a top-up on him in-play if he makes the break.

And of course, when it comes to iconic French stages, you have to include Pierre Rolland in the likely breakaway candidates, Cannondale could well have him and maybe Joe Dombrowski in the break, both have been active and are very likely to try again on this stage. He's too short for me though at 25/1. Dombrowski is a bit more interesting at 50/1, I think he'll try to get in the break too. 

Gianluca Brambilla could also try to get in the break, but I'm not sure how he'll go on the Aubisque with better climbers. David de la Cruz could also go well today, but I don't think he'll be let go in the break, he is still only 3'45" down on GC. Louis Meintjes is starting to ride better too, he's recovering from a wrist injury he suffered in a crash on stage 6, he was in the break in stage 12. He is nearly 10 minutes down on GC so might be let go again, and a nice win by 2-3 minutes will lift him closer to a top 10 finish. 

Sergio Pardilla, Pierre Latour, George Bennett and Mathias Frank all have chances in the break too, Latour may not get in the break though. BMC are now in the driving seat in the team prize, they will probably send someone in the break again - Tejay has just looked so poor, I'm not touching him. Atapuma may well try, he is probably far enough down now to be able to attack again. Or maybe Ben Hermans could try his luck again, he looks to be really strong at the moment. Thomas de Gendt loves a break on a Queen stage too, but he doesn't seem to be going all that well to me at the moment.. the 66/1 is almost tempting me from Bet365, but 25/1 with PP is ridiculous.

They're my guys for the break - but the break probably has about a 50% chance of making it - this is the Queen stage after all and they all had a rest day today in preparation for tomorrow. Chris Froome will fancy it and will be looking to deal another serious blow to Quintana's ambitions of taking enough time to hold him off in the TT.

Nairo Quintana has to attack and take more time on such a long and hard climb. Movistar had a rest day today, but I think they will rip it to pieces tomorrow, starting on the Marie Blanque - I think they will look to strip Frome and Contador of as many of their support riders as possible and tee up a big attack from Quintana on the final climb. Leo Konig has been riding exceptionally well too though and currently sits in 6th place - will he sacrifice his chances of a top 10 to work his ass off for Froome if Movistar start attacking him hard early on the final climb (or even on the Marie Blanque)?

They have a second card to play with Valverde of course - he could be sent up the road on the attack on the Marie Blanque - they may even have someone like Herrada or Rojas in the break of the day to help him when he comes across, and then to help Quintana if he makes his move. It has been interesting watching Froome ride, attacking him hard puts him in temporary trouble, but it has been only temporary, he has paced himself and ridden himself back in to the race.

But can he do it repeatedly? If they attack him early, and again and again when he gets back in, can they crack him? Maybe.. but the problem is, when he has got back on, he has been going so fast he just goes straight to the front and attacks himself. This is more a Quintana type climb though, Froome is better versus Quintana on the really steep finishes, Quintana likes a slightly easier gradient of 8-9%. 

Robert Gesink is a silly price at 12/1, Alberto Contador has looked lively and tested his legs on stage 12, but I can't see him riding away from Froome and Quintana. Esteban Chaves gave up 19" to Froome on Stage 11s finish and couldn't even stay with his team-mate Simon Yates.. I think he'll like this climb a lot better, but I can't see him beating Froome or Quintana in the form they're in either.   

Michele Scarponi is riding out of his skin for a 36 year old, but I can't see him attacking, I think he'll be happy to hang with the likes of Contador and Chaves and preserve his top 10 than putting himself in to the red and paying for it after. Andrew Talansky continues to fly under the radar, but now sits in 11th place, but to move in to the top 10 he is going to have to do something big soon and drop the likes of Scarponi, De la Cruz or Sammy Sanchez - tomorrow could be a day for that and at 150/1 he might offer a tiny bit of value to chase after Froome and Quintana and possibly take a podium tomorrow.. long shot though and he may just look to try to take time on those above him to move in to the top 10.. 

So who then? Froome or Quintana? They are both basically the same price, around 4-5/1 so both just about offer value in terms of a 'bet to nothing' each-way - I think that if they don't win it, there may well only be 1 solo rider up the road ahead of them. I think Movistar will have got a bollicking tonight for letting the break get so big that they lost the lead in the team prize and have a lot of ground to make up. I expect Fernandez, Moreno and the rest to rip it apart and when they do so they break may well be doomed, unless there are some very strong and determined guys in it. And then, I think Quintana may well kick on and attack away from Froome to take 20" and a time bonus, and it may well be for the stage victory too.  

Recommendations -

0.25pts each-way on Alexandre Geniez at 50/1 with Bet365

0.25pts each-way on Luis Angel Maté at 125/1 with Paddy Power

0.4pts win on Kenny Elissonde at 20/1 with Bet365

0.25pts each-way on Joe Dombrowski at 50/1 with Bet365

2pts each-way on Nairo Quintana at 9/2 with Skybet 

Back Fraile as a 'back to lay' bet on Betfair around 28 or so, look to lay him back around 3/1 if he makes the break..

Matchbets

Louis Meintjes to beat George Bennett - 2pts at 10/11 with Bet365

Talansky to beat JC Peraud - 2pts at 11/8 with Bet365

Elissonde to beat Brambilla and Gesink to beat Fraile - 2pts on the double at 6/4 with Bet365

Latour to beat Moreno - 3pts at 4/6 with Bet365