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Published on Monday, 29 August 2016 17:20

Vuelta Stage 11

Colunga to Peña Cabarga

Wed Aug 31st, 168.6kms 

The riders come back from a rest day with the prospect of facing their fourth mountain-top finish in a row, let's hope they made the rest day count. And again it's back on familiar territory with the final climb up to the Peña Cabarga.

What a spectacular way to sign off before the Rest day though with an incredible stage - Nairo Quintana blows everyone out of the water with an incredible surge up the Covadonga to snatch the stage win from Gesink and the red jersey from De La Cruz. Where was this Quintana all year? What has caused this transformation? Cooler climes? Recovery from illnesses and allergies? Or something more sinister.. Who knows.. but it now sees him take a lead of almost a minute in to the rest day, with his team-mate Valverde as his closest challenger. 

What a stage it was though - I was right to avoid break picks, but got sucked in in the morning to backing the Lotto trio,  but it looked a good idea for a while as Vervaeke infiltrated the break. In fact, of the names I listed that could go in the break, Rolland, Dombrowski, Vervaeke, Hermans, Gesink and Fraile all got in the break, but with less than 3 minutes starting the final climb it was always going to be difficult for them to stay away. Gesink made the best fist of it, but he too was passed by Quintana, going at about twice his speed. 

Contador looked in great shape for a while, in fact he was doing most of the pushing as Chris Froome seemed to blow up and go out the back door again. But he was like a child's toy car that you pull back before releasing and it goes flying across the floor at lightning speed.. He went backwards really quickly, it looked all over for him, when suddely he picked up the pace and took off like a rocket. He passed some riders like they were spectators standing watching him, and before you knew it, he was after pulling back 30" on Contador's group and sailed right through them. 

But by now Quintana was away and flying, never to be seen again. Gesink, Scarponi, Fraile and Scarponi rode brilliantly, with Gesink finding a little extra in the sprint to beat Froome with Valverde not far off landing a podium spot for us in 5th place. Chaves and Yates rode brilliantly, Chaves catching and passing Contador in the last 100m, but there were also amazing rides by Sammy Sanchez, JC Peraud, Talansky, Formolo and Pardilla with Brambilla not that far behind them at all, despite crashing early in the stage with Terpstra, forcing a frantic chase back on.

Some of the times posted on the Covadonga were some of the fastest times ever recorded up the climb, with Quintana, Froome, Scarponi and Valverde breaking in to the top 11 all-time fastest ascents. Yes, that's Quintana who was out of form coming in to the race, a fatigued Chris Froome, and two 36-year-olds burst in to the top eleven, surrounded by known and convicted dopers. Froome's recovery and change of cadence was insane to watch, how can you give a minute's head start and still beat most of your GC rivals?

It's hard to see anyone challenging Quintana now though, he looked so good today. Valverde is his nearest rival, so he's safe with him, but Froome is probably the only chance of a serious challenger. He needs to sort out his inconsistency on the climbs, giving the likes of Nairo head starts, and he will probably take a minute out of Quintana in the TT, so Nairo needs more time I think and will have to keep attacking. 

Not a great day at all bets wise, drew a blank with our two picks and Sanchez's big ride and Chaves late charge blew the match bets. Better news on the other bets front though with Fraile taking the KOM jersey and is in to 2/1, Quintana looks the big danger now, Valverde moves in to Green and Movistar move over 3 mins clear of Cannondale in 2nd. Our two overall head to heads look won bar accidents and Talansky continues to chip away with decent rides, he's now in 12th, just 45" outside the top 10. Meintjes has a bit of work to do though, he's over 3 mins away from the top 10! 

For stage 11 they travel to Peña Cabarga, in Cantabria, after a departure from the Asturias Jurassic Museum, near Colunga. The final climb is a short and severe one, almost 6km long with an average gradient of 9.8%, the final stretch being the toughest part with the last 1.9km averaging a ball-breaking 11.5%, including slopes of up to 19%.

The area near the finish-line will provide spectacular views and will allow fans to observe a good part of the climb as the peloton winds its way up the mounain. 168.6km that will begin to weigh on the riders after almost two weeks of racing and four very difficult days.

The Peña Cabarga climb last featured in the Vuelta a Espana in 2013, when Vasil Kiryienka won after a solo attack.Ángel López del Álamo was the winner when it made its first appearance in 1979. It would be over 30 years before it returned, but it finally did in 2010 and that was quickly followed by its third appearance in 2011 with Chris Froome taking the stage win ahead of Juan José Cobo. 

The Route

This stage will be dead as a dinosaur for 160kms, rather an apt description seeing as we are departing from the Colunga Jurassic Museum, but then explodes in to life for the final 6kms. There's a couple of little lumps and bumps along the way as they head along the coastline, but it's effectively flat, with the only thing that might spark the bunch in to life a little being the intermediate sprint which comes with less than 70kms to go. If the points jersey chasers want the points they might reel in the break early. Otherwise it will be all about the break building up an 8-10 minute lead and the peloton gradually pulling it back to a manageable 3 minutes or so starting the Pena Cabarga.

But what a brutal finish to the stage and to the quintet of mountain summit stages they've faced - it starts almost at sea level at just 26m but they turn inland on to the climb and straight away hit gradients of 9-10% for the first 2kms. It then gets steeper - 12%, 14% before easing slightly to 8-10% again. The average gradient for the whole of the climb comes in at 9.2%, but that is slightly false as just after the 3km to go mark they go through a flat-ish section for around 700m - if that wasn't there, the average would be closer to 10.5%. 

Just after the flat section near Descanso La Ida the road kicks up again, and hard - quickly hitting double digits and as they approach the 1km to go banner it gets brutally steep - 18%, 20%, 15% but with about 400m to go it eases to around 2% for 100m or so before a final kick to the line at 9%. 

Contenders and Favourites

The last time up here in 2013, the break of the day provided the winner, with Vasil Kiryienka comfortably taking the stage from Chris Anker Sorensen and Adam Hansen, with Chris Horner leading the GC men home almost 2 minutes behind Kiryienka. There were riders scattered all over the road though as this climb blew the race to bits - it literally was ones and twos all the way down to about 60th place.

That day was very different too though in the way the course was laid out, they had a far tougher day in the saddle with three Cat 3 and one Cat 2 climbs in 100kms before the Pena Cabarga.

As always there will be two battles in a stage like this - the battle for the stage and the battle for the GC. The problem with the two is that it makes it more difficult to predict how it's going to go - will the peloton leave them go and save energy for the final climb? Or will they want the stage win and the time bonus?   

The race has taken it's shape now I think with Quintana, Froome, Valverde, Contador and Chaves seemingly the better climbers, but a whole host of guys who are not far behind like Scarponi, Konig, Yates, Sanchez, Talansky, Formolo and Atapuma, and as we saw in the Giro, a three minute lead is nothing in a Grand Tour. 

 The break has a big chance again though I think today, Movistar will be happy to let the break go and take the time bonuses, and for Quintana to rip it apart again on his own later on. Who's going to chase them down and set it up for Quitana? Froome is his nearest challenger, but this isn't a climb that suits him I think and Sky don't exactly have a team of rouleurs to chase it down all day.

Orica BE might chase, it could be a climb for Chaves, but we've seen him disappoint quite a few times already on climbs we thought he might go well on. He did finish very strongly today though on the Covadonga, catching and passing Contador in the last few hundred metres, so maybe he is starting to feel better. He came here not at full fitness, looking to ride himself in to the race, so maybe now we are in week two he will start to improve, He's just 2'09" down and 1'11" off the podium and a good attack with 10" time bonus and he's back in the hunt for a podium spot.

Contador looks held, he's keen, he's able to go for a while, but as Kreuziger rather spitefully suggested yesterday, he doesn't know his limits like Froome and blew up.. Can he pace himself a bit better this time and attack on the steep ramps inside the last 2kms? He may well do, but will he be able to drop Quintana? No chance I think.. They might get a gap on Froome again this time and he may not be able to pull it back on these steep slopes, but the time gaps will likely be small.

This is a particularly brutal last few kilometres, so I think it won't be suitable for most riders - for example, I don't think it suits Sammy Sanchez that much, nor Scarponi or Gesink, and I think Yates might just find it a bit tough alright, although it might suit him a bit more than others.

So looking at the break? Well there are a number of guys who look keen and able and have been attacking a lot so far, and others may have been riding themselves in to form for week 2 and 3.. Thomas de Gendt could be a likely candidate, but he might wait for another day with a less brutal finish, he cracked as soon as the climbs started on Sunday. Maxime Monfort said on Sunday afternoon he had been trying really hard to get in the break, but missed the one that got away, and that he is going to keep attacking. At 200/1, stick him in your long-shots. 

Katusha are going to continue attacking every day as they have no GC interest, Egor Silin is really pleased with his form and has said he's going to continue attacking. He has been on the attack a few times, and pulled off a great ride on Sunday to finish 14th, despite being in the break all day (and crashing earlier in the stage). He says that a stage win is still his ambition in this race and will keep attacking, 125/1 he is. Matvey Mamykin is also riding really well for a 21 year old, he finished 28th on the Covadonga, he might try to get in the break again. 

Louis Meintjes is still a bit injured from his crash on stage 6, he might wait until week 3 maybe when he is feeling better. Maybe Kristijan Durasek could try something on this stage, he has been very quiet so far in the race, he must surely be thinking of trying something at some point.. he's 200/1 too.

Tejay Van Garderen has finished no higher than 84th in a stage of this race, will he finally try to show something in this race? I think I'll wait and see some flash of ambition and ability before investing in him. Is Darwin Atapuma far enough down the GC to be let go on the attack again yet? He's just over 5 minutes down, so he might get a chance to attack, but maybe he might lose some more time in order to try to win a stage later in the race. 

Lotto have also vowed to keep attacking to try to win a stage, they came very close with Gesink on Monday, only to be denied by a flying Quintana. Maybe Gesink will try again? He might need another day or two rest though and might target another stage later in the race. George Bennett has been riding very well too and has been infiltrating attacks, he has said he wants to keep attacking to try to take that stage win. 200/1 he is again. 

A few others that come to mind - Alexandre Geniez was on the attack to La Camperona on Sunday and took it easy on Monday.. He of course took that brilliant stage win on the wall up to the Mirador de Izaro on stage 3, so we know he goes well on steep slopes, maybe he'll give it a go again? He's around 50/1 but 66/1 with Betfair Sportsbook. Larry Warbasse also tried desperately to get in the right break over the last few days but kept missing the right ones, maybe he'll finally make it stick? He's 80/1.. 

I think Omar Fraile will save his energy for a day with more chance of winning KOM points, so don't expect to see him on the attack tomorrow. And others like Tiago Machado and Jan Bakelants will wait for a more rolling stage I think. 

I could go on and on... Dario Cataldo, Kenny Ellisonde, Maxime Bouet.. there are so many for the Spanish Lottery tomorrow, but I'll scatter a few around for the break, but also 33/1 I'm going to have a saver on Esteban Chaves and will back Quintana in-play at 9/4 or bigger if it looks like the break won't make it. If they do get reeled in on the final climb, it's hard to look past Quintana again, he's so much stronger than all the rest of them, and he has said he needs three minutes in the TT to be comfortable, so he's going to keep trying to take time. 

I'm going to be out most of tomorrow driving to the west of Ireland, I may even miss the race, but I'll try to get a preview of some sort up tomorrow night too.. it might be short and sweet, just warning you in advance!

Recommendations -

0.25pts each-way on Larry Warbasse at 80/1 with various

0.3pts each-way on Esteban Chaves at 33/1 with Bet365

0.4pts win on Alexandre Geniez at 66/1 with Betfair Sportsbook

0.25pts each-way on George Bennett at 200/1 with Paddy Power

0.3pts win on Egor Silin at 125/1 with various

0.25pts each-way on Maxime Monfort at 200/1 with Bet365

Back Nairo in play if it looks like the break will be caught.  

Matchbets

To come later.