Details

Published on Friday, 26 August 2016 23:00

Vuelta Stage 8

Villalpando - La Camperona

Sat 27th Aug, 181.5kms 

A bizarre looking stage on the profile, with 170kms of a gently sloping road followed by a near vertical ascension right at the end to one of the most iconic finishes in the Vuelta, although it was only climbed in this race for the first time in 2014. 

The stage 14 in 2014 was won by the break of the day, with Ryder Hesjedal reeling in Olivier Zaugg in an epic battle on the mountain finish, with Chris Froome leading home the GC favourites 2'36" behind Hesjedal, followed by Rodriguez, Contador, Aru, Valverde and Dan Martin.

It is a brutally hard finish to the stage and the last two kilometres seemed to take forever, as Valverde attacked, Contador attacked, and Froome went out the back door, but like we saw on the steep finish to stage 3, he just paced himself while they all exhausted themselves up ahead. Suddenly the camera switched from the leaders to the GC men, and not only was Froome back with Contador and Valverde but he was whizzing away from them. It was a super finish and if we get anything like it tomorrow we're in for a treat. 

The catch from Hesjedal was extraordinary, the gap seemed to be only closing inch by inch as Zaugg ground his way up the hill, but suddenly with 200m to go, Hesjedal popped out from behind a motorbike, seemed to swith the motor on and zoomed past Zaugg to take the stage win. 

It's going to be a toss-up again this time between the break and the GC men, they'll know what sort of time gap is manageable now after the last time here, it just depends on how much the GC men want to push themselves and their teams on the first of four very hard stages. There's a possibility they won't be going full gas, the Cavadonga will be on their minds also, but the break could have done with a lumpier stage before the final climb, as instead, this flattish run in will be more suited to a peloton keeping the break on a very tight leash.  So it could be anything again today - a battle between the break and the GC teams - it's Spanish Lottery time again! 

Almost a blank today,.. Meersman was up there, but had no help, Stybar had an off day and finished 11 minutes down, and he lost Lampaert in the crash in the last kilometre. He finished 7th, just behind the leaders in a chaotic finish. I don't think many would have had Van Genechten, Bennati and Valverde as their top three, but I did say I expected Valverde up there, I just didn't think he'd break the top three. Felline was unlucky, was taken out by the crash also. Worst of all those involved in that though looks to be Alberto Contador, it was he got a nudge from the Lotto rider, possibly Van der Sande, and down he went. He finished the stage with road rash all over him and possibly an injured hand too. It has pushed him out from 7/1 to 14/1, shitty timing to decide to back him yesterday, should've waited one more day!

Bonifazio and Kwiatkowski called it a day, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Battaglin and Igor Anton call it quits tomorrow too, they were suffereing a lot at the back of the field today and rolled in the last two on the stage. At least it meant that Stybar won his H2H with Battaglin, to scrape back something, Felline and Goncalves both got held up in the final crash, we might have done ok otherwise, Felline would've probably beaten TVDS in 10th. 

The Route

Not a lot to say about the route for almost 99% of the profile, with just a gently sloping road heading northwards all day from Villalpando before they finally turn left and then right and start heading up the Campanero. The Campanero isn't the longest climb in the world at just over 8kms, and on the face of it it's not an overly terrible average at 7.8%. But the average doesn't tell the story of this climb.. The first 4kms average only 3.2% as it starts gently..

After the village of Olleros de Sabero the road gets a bit steeper, with gradients of up to 10%, but it just keeps getting steeper and steeper the further up the climb it goes. After the village of Sotillos de Sabero the road truly becomes brutal, almost inhuman, with the last 2kms averaging close to 19%, with several sections at 20% and more. It eases slightly in the last 200m, but by then most will be pretty exhausted.. 

Contenders and Favourites

Early prices from Paddy Power had this most certainly as a GC men's day with Froome at 3/1, Quintana at 4/1, Chaves at 6/1 and Contador at 7/1.. This is a hard one to call I think today, I was thinking break originally, but that loooooonnnng run in to the climb means that the peloton can keep a very steady tempo for 150kms or so and keep the break under a tight leash. They'll start to ramp it up in the last 50kms or so as they approach Villapaderna, and the pace will be furious coming in to the last bends as they approach the base of the Camperona as positioning will be vital.

So - Chris Froome - he's now best price 6/1 - a bet or not? I say no.. too short. He did go well here last time, eventually, and he showed how his pacing style is working in this race already with his recovery on stage 3's finish. I think his team is really light though in this race and he could well find himself isolated early on here. David Lopez, Landa's replacement was dropped early on yesterday, not what you want on what was not exactly a big climbing stage. Konig looks the only one likely to stay with him to help him for long enough, but I'm not sure what he'll offer. And now he's lost Kwiatkowski, not that he'd have probably been much help either. 

The others need to play it a bit smarter and attack him later I think - attacking him early allows him time to just grind away, pace himself and return back to them as they tire. Of course the temptation is to attack as soon as you can to put him (and everyone else) under pressure early, but it might be better to wait as long as possible and just crack him late on and not give him a chance to grind it back to them.. They might only take 10-20", but it'll be something. Of course, he could just spin away from them all again, but I think he might be a little fatigued from the Tour and even though it's sort of his thing to try to put a race to bed on the first mountain stage of a Grand Tour, he had a chance on 3 and 4, so it might be a bit late for him! I think he might just look to mark on the first of these four crucial stages. 

Nairo Quintana at 4/1 when they opened??? No thanks - yeah, we might see vintage Quintana rip it up this climb, but I can't take that chance, he disappoints too much for me lately. He looks like he is low on confidence and the fact that he didn't press on when Froome was in trouble on 3 worries me, Fernandez looked far stronger than him. He's now as big as 11/1 and even that doesn't interest me too much. 

Esteban Chaves disappointed me somewhat too with the fact that he didn't press on also when Froome was out the back on 3, and he was also unable to go after Fernandez when he went, and finished the last of the three in the little group with Valverde and Froome, almost with a time gap. Maybe he didn't want to show his hand too soon, and was happy to just watch and mark, he wouldn't have been too worried about Fernandez, as unlike the Movistar man, he probably knew the stage was won by Geniez. OBE are pretty light team-wise too though, but he can sit on the coat-tails of Movistar and Sky again and could possibly finally show his hand in this race in the last kilometre. He has come in for support tonight and is now best price 9/2, but he represents the best chance of a winner amongst the GC men I think. 

And what about Alberto Contador? I wrote this next paragraph this morning, maybe you can just discount him after today's crash, but if he isn't too badly hurt then he might take out his anger on the course.. up to you, but I think I'll leave him now.. 

(Time for him to make his move? He has lots of time to start to make up and he looked good last time up here in 2014. He didn't have a great start to this race but has been looking better and better and his confidence seems to be up. He has lost a big aide in Kiserlovski though, he could have done with his help on part of his climb. He should play it a lot calmer and cooler here I think though and resist the urges to attack as early as he probably wants to. If he can wait, and let Froome and Movistar burn themselves out a little, he could attack hard in the last kilometre and could well nick the stage, or at least finish in the top 3. )

Alejandro Valverde of course has a big chance on this stage, that is, as long as he can stay with the leaders long enough to be able to fight for the stage victory in the last 200m. He might find the going tough if the likes of Froome, Chaves or Contador really put the hammer down, but if there's a bit of a stalemate and they all look at each other then it will play right in to his hands. And there are ten green jersey points up for grabs too here.. At 11/1 he might be worth a bet. 

Samuel Sanchez, Igor Anton and Dani Moreno are other guys who might go well on this stage, but I think it's a big ask to expect them to attack away from these guys and hold it to the finish. The Dani Moreno of old maybe, but as we saw yesterday, Simon Yates easily disposed of him when he caught and passed him on the run in. Anton has been really sick though and was back and forth to the medical car today with stomach issues. Darwin Atapuma will do well to hold on to his jersey today I think, but he seems to be riding well and you'd never know, maybe Sky and Movistar are happy to let BMC control things for another few stages until they are happy to take over! But it's hard to see the red jersey escaping from this lot either. 

But what about Ruben Fernandez again? He was superb on the really steep gradients on stage 3, and not only dragged Valverde and Quintana clear of the majority of the peloton he had enough power to attack away from the likes of Quintana also and held it to the line. If he gets an inch, as the rest watch Valverde and Nairo, then he could well be gone again tomorrow and of the four Movistar men who could win this stage, I fancy him the most.. He's not a massive price at 16ws, but he could land another surprise win. The only danger is that they make him work again and he drops away in the last kilometre or so when the job is done. 

Instead we might be left looking for value outside the GC favourites, either from guys who might go in the break of the day, and if they are good enough climbers have a chance of holding off the chasers, or else maybe some attacks early on the climb that might stick.. Guys like Robert Gesink who now has a free card to go stage hunting with the abandonment of Kruijswijk, at 100/1 he might be worth a small investment. Matthias Frank was impressive a few days ago, he could try for the break of the day or an early attack on the final climb, he's another that's a decent price at 66/1. 

Simon Yates took a brilliant stage win a few days ago, but there was obviously an element of luck in his win, I think he totally caught the peloton off guard and maybe they thought he could come back quickly like Moreno. This is a different ball game altogether though and he won't be given that freedom again. I think the likes of Ellissonde, Geniez and Calmejane will wait for a more normal type hill, this is too hard I think, and same goes for other climbers like Fraile, Dombrowski, Zeits, Carthy and Padilla. 

One rider I want to keep an eye on and maybe have a go at soon is David de la Cruz for Etxx. He has been one of the Etixx riders who has been riding really well so far and finished just 12" behind the Froome group on stage 3 and sits in 13th place overall, with a good chance of moving in to the top 10 in this race. It's a case of when and where to strike with him, and as he's 200/1 for tomorrow he's worth a go I think. Louis Meintjes finished 5th on this finish in 2014, but he was part of the break that day and just held on before the favourites arrived, I don't think he'll be doing something similar this time. 

It's going to be a battle between breakers and heart-breakers again I think, so have scattered a few likely break bets at big prices, along with my GC men's bets. I think Chaves has a big chance at a top 3 and looks a good each-way bet to nothing, he's bound to be close to the podium at worst and could even win the stage. Valverde may be close too but I also fancy Ruben Fernandez to spring a surprise again and take advantage of the man-marking of his team-mates.

Recommendations -

1pt each-way on Esteban Chaves at 9/2 with various

0.5pts each-way on Ruben Fernandez at 16/1 with Ladbrokes

0.2pts win on David de la Cruz at 200/1 with Skybet

0.2pts win on Robert Gesink at 100/1 with Bet365

Matchbets

De la Cruz to beat Formolo, Chaves to beat Valverde, Konig to beat Kennaugh and Talansky to beat Sicard - 1pt on the four-fold at 2.9/1 with Bet365

Elissonde to beat Pardilla - 2pts at 8/11 

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