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Published on Monday, 22 August 2016 20:04

Vuelta Stage 4

Betanzos - S. Andrés de Teixido

Tues 23rd August, 163.5kms 

We head further up the west coast of Spain to one of the most northerly finishes the race will have ever had, finishing on the new summit finish at the cliffs of San Andrés de Teixido.  

An interesting stage today, the final climb was as brutal as I had expected and could well have finished most people's ambitions off of a good placing already on just the 3rd stage. Steven Kruijswijk was probably the highest profile candidate as he lost nearly two minutes to Chaves and co. He crossed the line with Gesink and Bennett, the two team-mates looking after him as he felt sick on the climb in the oppressive heat. 

Up front, Geniez held on brilliantly for a 400/1 win, they just had enough of a gap hitting the final climb, it was around 2 minutes.. Maybe if Movistar had started working a little earlier than just 2kms to go then it would have been a different story. The way they split the bunch at the bottom of the climb was bloody impressive though, there were four of them in a group of about eight that had separated themselves from the front of the peloton after only a few hundred metres of the climb. Contador, Quintana and Chaves were there, Froome wasn't and looked to be in trouble. 

By the time they reached the top it was all change though, as Froome clawed his way back and finished 4th on the day, whereas Contador went backwards and lost another 28" to Froome. Nairo Quintana once again looked like he was in a good position, he appeared at the front on one bend with Chaves, but yet again he did nothing. He didn't attack, he didn't ride hard to try to distance Froome, he did nothing only roll along.. he is becoming very frustrating to watch.. Ruben Fernandez took the prize for dummy of the day though as he celebrated his 2nd place like it was a win, either he didn't know, or he was very happy to be taking the Red Jersey. 

So we now have Fernandez in red, and Movistar did a trojan job today for the team prize with three riders in the first six. Of the GC favourites, we now have Valverde, Froome, Chaves and Quintana from 2nd to 5th, with only 10" separating them. Contador is in 12th. Talansky rode well today to finish 24th and sits in 18th in the GC, too well for our matchbet with a sick Kruijswijk and it also cost us the four-fold, as annoyingly, the other three results won. Small 4pt loss today, two matchbets won with Goncalves and Moreno doing their part. I did manage to lay Pellaud at 7/4 and Serry at 5/4 so made a bit on the in-play action. 

This the second summit finish in a row, but at the end of a stage that looks like it could be a good one for a breakaway. The lumpy start with two Cat 3 climbs in the opening 60kms will help the break get away and get a good lead, and it's not too long a stage either at 163kms. The one thing that will cause the break problems though will be strong winds whipping around the coast coming in off the Atlantic. 

The finish is another tough climb though, the total climb is more than 13kms long which goes up in two steps with a little descent in the middle, with the Cat 2 categorised part 11.2kms in length. It's a stunningly beautiful part of the world and will make for some spectacular backdrops - theses are the highest cliffs in Europe apparently at 620m.  Coming off the back of a brutal stage today though there could be a lot in the peloton are prepared to let a break have some fun tomorrow. 

The Route

After starting in Betanzos they move further up along the Atlantic coast in an S shape towards the coast of the Bay of Biscay, but they dip inland for a while to take in two categorised climbs in 40kms along the way. First up is the Cat 3 Alto de Serra Capela (6.5kms at 4.7%) and shortly after is another Cat 3 climb, the Alto Monte Caxado (7.3kms at 4.5%).

After a 17km descent they then roll along for more or less 75kms, carrying on along the coast and through Valdovino, and with just 13kms to go they hit the intermediate sprint for the day, so expect a lot of help from the sprinters teams to pull back the break so their men can go for the points, they won't be getting any at the finish!

The final climb comes in two parts, the first part is around 6kms long at an average of 5.6%, but then they descend for nearly 2kms before starting the final ascent to the line. The final ascent is short but very steep, 3.5kms at an average of 8.6%. 

Contenders and Favourites

This could be one for a strong breakaway attempt, the lumpy opening 60kms will tempt lots of guys with fresh legs in to trying their luck and if Movistar and Sky decide that they don't want to chase hard then they might just stay away. There are of course important time bonuses at the finish which could see the leader's jersey change hands, so it may still turn in to a battle on the final climb between the break and the GC men, but I think that today's hard stage will have a lot of the top riders thinking they could do without another hard stage so early in the race..

Breakaway candidates? The likes of Caja Rural will probably try to get up the road - Pelle Bilbao, Sergio Pardilla and Jose Goncalves are likely to try, as is Omar Fraile for Dimension Data - there are two Cat 3 climbs early on he might fancy, but he might save himself for climbs with more points available later in the race. The lumpy terrain will appeal to the Belgians like Dries Devenyns, Philippe Gilbert, Jens Keukeleire and Jan Bakelants and we might see some of them on the attack too.  Adam Hansen or Thomas de Gendt are two other likely lads for Lotto Soudal or Campanaerts for LottoNL, we may see them stage hunting soon if Kruij is too sick to ride for a good GC placing..

Geniez could have been an ideal candidate for tomorrow, but no chance after today's effort, but we could see someone like Christian Odd Eiking go on the attack for FDJ instead, he rode very well recently in both the Arctic Race of Norway and the Tour of Norway. Katusha have some men who could go up the road, Tiago Machado could be one that could finish off the stage if they stay away on to the last climb. Perrig Quemeneur for Direct Energie could try his luck or Kristijan Durasek for Lampre.. We may see Philippe Gilbert take a flyer off the front again with 15kms to go, as the intermediate sprint is located at the base of the final climb, he might want to try for the points again. 

So lots and lots of breakaway candidates, but if it comes down to a GC battle then the final climb could be a really interesting one.. There's the first part, then a descent, then a hard last 3-4kms at nearly 9%. Not quite as steep as today's finish, but sure to separate the men from the boys again. 

Of the GC favourites, Alejandro Valverde looked strong today and tomorrow's finish suits him even better.. but will he be going all out to try to take the jersey off his team-mate? I doubt he'd think twice about it, if a stage and the jersey is there, he'll go for it. Movistar looked very strong today with Fernandez, Moreno, Valverde, Quintana, Castroviejo and Rojas working well to try to set up the win. It wasn't to be today, but I think if the chance is there tomorrow, they'll go for it again. Maybe Fernandez will actually want to celebrate a victory properly tomorrow!

Chris Froome looked good too today, he seemed in trouble at the bottom and was struggling it seemed to go with Chaves and Quintana. But he pulled a Froomey on it and just ground away at the pedals and rejoined the leaders as Quintana decided he would sit and watch rather than press on. 4kms at 8% might see him look to put some of his rivals out of the game completely after only 4 stages, a strong attack and a win by 30" to a minute on the likes of Contador and it's all over I think for him. 

Esteban Chaves was up there today, but seemed to lack the killer instinct he had a year ago, he didn't press on when he probably should have and in the end missed out on a top 3 placing, made me a little bit happy I went win-only on him... That finish was very hard today though and I guess he was caught in two minds to press on and blow up or to just mark Quintana and Froome and bide his time for a more suitable finish, which I think he did the right thing actually. He's on the same time as the two of them more or less, going too hard could have seen him do a Contador and lose 30". Not good if you backed him for the stage, but good for the overall as he pulls away from some rivals already. 

Ruben Fernandez looked very strong today, he was the one pulling the Movistar train with 1km to go, dancing on the pedals at the front.. Then he attacked when the lull happened as Froome came back to them and they started to weigh up the situation.. He powered all the way to the line and cut the lead from 45" to 21" in just 300m, almost catching Geniez. But maybe if Movstar had started riding earlier, he would have won. Can he do it again in the red jersey? It's possible, but we may see him work for Valverde tomorrow, he had his fun today and has a red jersey in his suitcase leaving this Vuelta. 

Looking at Alberto Contador today, I can't see him winning tomorrow, but you'd never know, a slightly easier gradient will suit him a lot better, and he didn't do too badly today after all, finishing in 9th. Tinkoff melted away really quickly today but with the easier climb in part one tomorrow they may be able to drive hard to set him up for an attack. Igor Anton looked good today, but that's a climb he likes, not sure he'll feature tomorrow. Miguel Angel Lopez fell hard today, he may not be fighting for a stage for a few days. 

Gianluca Brambilla was looking good today, so good that the Etixx team were chasing hard coming in to the climb, even though Serry was still up the road. It was his birthday today, maybe they wanted to get him a stage win for it.. But that finish was very tough, I think tomorrow suits him a lot better - he rewarded us with a great stage win in the Giro at 22/1 I think it was, he's the same price tomrorrow in PP's early prices, I think that's worth a shot, to strike with him when he's in form. Sammy Sanchez rode well today too but I think 5th to 10th at best for him tomorrow. 

So I'm going to scatter a few break bets around and Brambilla, but will look to back Valverde in play if the break looks like it won't make it, should still be able to get 3/1 or so in play I'd say. Well I say scatter a few bets on breakaway riders around, but most of the guys I've named above haven't even been quoted by anyone..

Recommendations:

0.5pts each-way on Gianluca Brambilla at 22/1 with PP

0.2pts each-way on Tiago Machado at 200/1 with PP

0.2pts each-way on Kristijan Durasek at 150/1 PP

Look to get 2pts on Valverde at 3/1 or so in play if it looks like the break will get caught. Watch for tweets for the green light on that one! 

Added Omar Fraile at 100/1 as he sounded up for it in the morning.. said he had stomach problems earlier in the race but is ok now and it's a day for breakaways.. that was with Betfred. 

Matchbets

Brambilla to beat Anton, Fernandez to beat Konig, Valverde to beat Froome - 2pts at 9/4 with Bet365