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Published on Saturday, 27 August 2016 23:08

Vuelta Stage  9

Cistierna to Oviedo / Alto del Naranco

Sunday 28th August, 165kms 

The second of four crucially important stages in this Vuelta, if you are not at the top of your game in this first week, your race will be over before the first rest day. Another hard finish is in store up to the Alto del Naranco.

Well, got that wrong today, I hate to admit it! The break did make it, as they were left get a lead of over 10 minutes, and hit the final climb with almost 8 minutes. Katusha played the team tactics perfectly with two riders in the break and Restrepo attacked and allowed Lagutin to sit in and not work, and Quemeneur and Domont were done over by Lagutin with a powerful attack in the last 300m. And behind? Nairo Quintana.... Nairo, Nairo, Nairo.. what are you doing to us?! It shows how bad Froome's form must be if Quintana finally attacked him and made time, but also that a crocked and dropped Alberto Contador was able to get back, pass and take 8" out of Froome!

What a ride that was by Contador though, credit where it's due, I thought it was all over for him and he fought back, bandages and all and finished strongly. He's not out of the race yet. Quintana takes the lead from Atapuma who struggled today, with his team-mate Valverde in 2nd place. Froome hangs on to 3rd, 27" back from Quintana, then it's 30" further back to Chaves in 4th, who struggled to stay with Froome and Contador, but wasn't far off, and am impressive Leo Konig in 5th. Contador isn't far off at all in 6th and Simon Yates continues to ride well, he sits in 10th. I was not overly impressed by Quintana though, he faded a bit towards the end of the stage, I thought Froome would come out of the crowd behind him suddenly, instead it was Contador and Pardilla who came after him. I don't think this race is over yet, Contador isn't done in this race either yet hopefully.. 

The 9th stage will re-visit the Alto del Naranco, another old favourite of the Vuelta, which towers over the beautiful city of Oviedo. It's not the hardest of finishes, but a day after the climb to La Camperona and the day before hitting the brutal Lagos de Covadonga, this could be another pivotal stage.

It's another relatively short one at 164.5km in a stage that promises to be both beautiful and exciting where, besides the Naranco, the peloton will also have to complete four climbs (three 3rd category and one 2nd category).

Back in the 1980s and 1990s, Naranco was a regular Vuelta feature. It had its own hill climb, the Subida a Naranco, until a few years back, and it still features regularly in the Tour of Asturias. After the Basque Country, Asturias is one of Spanish cycling’s heartlands, and traditionally in the Vuelta thousands of fans would mass on the climb to cheer on the race.

That said, the climb itself is not exceptionally hard or long – particularly compared with the Angliru. Naranco measures six kilometres, has an average gradient of four percent and some ‘ramps’ of 10 percent at the worst. Yet it has been witness to some key moments in Spanish cycling.

In 1974, Jose Manuel Fuente, Asturias 'greatest ever rider and one of Spain’s top climbers, sealed his second victory in the Vuelta on its first ever ascent of the climb in front of thousands of his supporters.With typical eccentricity, as the rain teemed down, Fuente soloed across the line waggling his left leg in the air - a way he said, of thanking the doctor who had helped him, he said “sort out my varicose veins.”.

22 years later, when Daniele Nardello won there for Mapei, the climb showed that the writing was on the wall for Miguel Indurain in the 1996 Vuelta. Whilst Alex Zulle, Laurent Jalabert and Tony Rominger all completed the Naranco within a few seconds of each - Zulle was the fastest, 2:26 down on Nardello in fifth place - Indurain crossed the line a good minute further down. The next day, on the road to the Covadonga Lakes where Zulle sealed his grip on the Vuelta, Indurain retired, never to return to competitive racing, barring one criterium.

The Route

 The stage already starts at nearly 1000m at Cistierna and they start climbing already straight from the flag drop. After popping over a small little hill to start with they start on a long drag up to the Cat 2 Puerto de San Isidro - by the time they reach the top they will have been climbing for nearly 30kms. Once over the top they plunge down for the best part of 60kms as they arrive towards the crucial last 55kms of the stage. 

From here on in it's up and down in a series of waves, with first the Cat 3 climb to Alto do Sant Emiliano after 117kms, followed quickly after the descent by the intermediate sprint at the 124.6km point. Then there are three bumps in quick succession in the space of 20kms, two of which are Cat 3 climbs and they arrive at the foot of the final challenge for the day, the nasty climb to Alto del Naranco. 

The Naranco starts out easy enough, with the lower slopes in the first 3.5kms averaging 5.4%, but next kilometre is the hardest of the climb with the next 500m hitting 10.9% and then 500m at 13.8%. The next 1500m level out to just 1.8% average and then the last 800m averages 6%. 

Contenders and Favourites

So one of the tough finishes down, three to go. This is a very different stage to yesterday's though with four categorised climbs along the way, three in quick succession within 40kms, with another uncategorised climb in between the final two Cat 3 climbs. The final climb is the easiest of the four stage finishes though, so it will not be anything like today's where riders struggled up it. 

Another one for the breakaway? It could well be - but like today again, it's the Spanish lottery trying to pick the candidates. The battle for the GC has changed complexion again, with Movistar now occupying the top 2 places on the GC, will they look to control the race all day, or will they be happy to let a break go, as long as it doesn't contain any dangers? I think they will.. Why chase all day to give our rivals a chance to attack you and take bonus seconds?

And who will chase instead - maybe Sky if Froome wants to strike back straight away, something he often likes to do, or possibly Tinkoff if Contador is starting to fire now, and is sure to be full of confidence after that impressive ride today. and maybe OBE if Chaves is feeling a bit better on this climb, I think it suits him better with the varying gradients, but it was worrying he was left behind a little by Froome, Quintana and Contador.

So who can make the breakaway? Well lots of guys.. too many! Thomas de Gendt will probably try, he's one to keep onside on a day like this. Omar Fraile took it easy today, he has his eye on the many KOM points available on this stage - but the question is, will he go for all the points and have nothing left for the final hill? He was riding strongly a few days ago and the final hill isn't that hard though so I think he's worth keeping onside too. 

Luis Leon Sanchez is a ridiculous price at just 11/2, ok, he is riding really well, has been up sprinting, attacking.. he looks strong and hungry.. but 11/2? He should be about 20/1 to just make the break, not 11/2 for the stage.. that's just crazy.. I can't back him at that price. I'm going to give Mathias Frank another go though, I think he is still looking very strong and he needs to just catch the right break - every day in a break, every decent placing will help with contract negotiations! Same goes for Larry Warbasse who has been hinting that he is desperate to get in a break and he rode really well today to finish just 9" behind Chaves and Yates. At 100/1 with Ladbrokes he's worth an interest. 

Louis Vervaeke has said he wants to get in breaks, but hasn't had much luck so far, maybe this stage might be more his style? Like with Warbasse and Frank, you often get more than one rider from a team get in these big breaks, so we could see Vervaeke and de Gendt in the same break. Etixx continue to ride really well, so well that they have in fact taken the lead in the team classification! Didn't see that coming, but I guess being in a break almost every day is really helping them. They could put someone in the break again tomorrow to try to help with the team prize, and I wouldn't be surprised to see De La Cruz in the break, he's climbing the best of the Etixx guys, bar Brambilla, who is fighting for a top 10, so he won't be let go.. 

Cannondale may well try to get a man in the break too, and Ben King might be the man again - 3rd on stage 4 from the break, he was very happy with his form.. He took it easy today and rolled in with Moser about 14 minutes down, this is a stage he might try his luck with again. 

Of course, if it comes to a GC battle then it's wide open again, but Alejandro Valverde would have to be highly fancied on this finish, and I think that may also be the only way LL Sanchez can win the stage maybe, with a late attack, I don't think he will get in the break of the day. Froome might look to get back on track with a big attack, and Quintana can now just mark and cover and could counter punch if Froome tries and fails to drop him. Gianluca Brambilla is riding really well and I think will take a stage before the end of this race, he could have a chance if it comes to a GC group sprint uphill. 

But I think it's another stage for the break, the Lagos de Covadonga will be weighing heavily on the minds of the GC men and their teams and I think they'll let the break have their fun tomorrow. Scatter gun approach to see if we can find a winner, or at least a few to give us some excitement for a few hours. 

Recommendations:

0.25pts each-way on Ben King at 80/1 with various

0.25pts each-way on Larry Warbasse at 100/1 with Ladbrokes

0.4pts each-way on Matthias Frank at 40/1 with Ladbrokes

0.3pts win on David de la Cruz at 125/1 with Paddy Power

0.25pts each-way on Louis Vervaeke at 50/1 with Bet365

0.5pts each-way on Thomas de Gendt  25/1 with Paddy Power

Matchbets:

Valverde to beat Froome, Brambilla to beat S Sanchez, Yates to beat Kennaugh - 2pts at 2.33/1 with Paddy Power

David de la Cruz to beat Formolo - 2pts win at 5/6 with Bet365

Yates to beat Kennaugh - 4pts at 4/6 with Paddy Power