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Published on Wednesday, 14 August 2019 12:13

Vuelta 2019 - Contenders

A two-horse race?

It might look like a two-horse race with Primoz Roglic and Miguel Angel Lopez dominating the head of the betting, but this is the Vuelta, and anything can happen. 

The Giro showed that you can never rule out the outsiders, and the likes of Pogacar, Poels, Quintana, Kruiswijk and Chaves know they might never get a better chance to win a Grand Tour.. Let battle commence!

Primoz Roglic - 7/4 favourite

Seems to have the right profile to win this race for sure, will take minutes off of his mountain-goat rivals in the two TTs, that's for sure. His Jumbo team will do well in the TTT, Roglic, Martin, Kruijswijk, Bennett and Powless are seriously strong engines, Roglic himself will probably come close to winning the individual TT and will take 30" to 2 minutes out of all his rivals. 

And he also has one of the strongest squads here for the mountains too - Kruisjwijk, Gesink, Bennett and Kuss as domestiques! He will do very well on some of the tougher stages with steady climbs, he'll do well on the stages with punchy finishes and we could even see him charge away to take a stage. But I'm worried about Los Muchacos, I think he could lose 30-40" to the mountain men there..

Where else could he lose enough time though to lose the race? Well, we saw him crack under pressure in the Giro, and I think he'll be under attack from all angles again here, his rivals know that they can crack him now. Kruijswijk and Bennett had a tough Tour de France and if they are feeling the effects of it he might be losing them earlier than he'd like on crucial stages. Stages 13 and 15 are too more that could see him under a lot of pressure. 

Miguel Angel Lopez - 3/1

Lopez finished on the podium of both the Giro and the Vuelta last year, highlighting his liking for tough, mountainous races, and his ability to come good in the third week of GTs. That might mean though that this year's race doesn't suit him as much, with the third week being the easiest and the second week being the hardest. But I'm sure they have prepared for this and have him much fitter and ready at the start of this race than he might have been had it a tougher third week. 

After winning Catalunya earlier in the year, he didn't have as great a Giro as he maybe expected, losing a shedload of time in the three TTs to Primoz Roglic (28" in the first, 3'48" in the second and 54" in the third. That's over 5 minutes he lost in total, something that will surely be giving him cold sweats when he thinks about the 36km stage 10 TT.

But he has a great team here with him who should limit losses in the TTT to around 30", and he has the legs to really make a mark on the mountain stages in this race. He should take 30-60" off of Roglic and others on Los Machucos, and he's very capable of a late, or long-range attack that will gain him time and bonus seconds. Astana have the riders to blow things up, but also riders capable of going in breaks in order to help Lopez later in the stage when he bridges to them. I'm thinking stages 15, 18 and 20 are three stages that he can go wild on if he needs to take time back. 

Richard Carapaz - 7/2

Well, Carapaz should have been one of the favourites, but has has been ruled out of the race after a crash in training... 

Steven Kruijswijk - 10/1 

Jumbo Visma come here with two genuine podium hopefuls, and should anything happen to Roglic along the way, Steven Kruijswijk could do a job for them here too. 3rd in the Tour this year with a very solid and steady ride, 4th in the Vuelta last year and 5th in the Tour de France, 9th in the Vuelta in 2017, 4th in the Giro of 2016, he has finished in the top 10 of every GT he has entered in the last 3 years. 

If he brings good form in to this Vuelta from the Tour, then he has a massive chance of a podium, as he is in one of the best TTT teams, is one of the best TT'ers going for the GC here (finished 6th in the TDF TT in Pau over 27kms) and is a superb climber. He might lose some time on the finish to Los Machucos, like he did in 2017, but he will make it up on some of the other bigger climbs. And he's the kind of guy who tends to make most splits when things get a bit crazy. 

Nairo Quintana - 16/1

Will we ever see Nairo reclaim the brief glory days? Will he ever podium in a Grand Tour again? Will he ever attack? Will he ever look interested? So many questions about the little man, but the fact is he's a multiple Grand Tour winner, including the Vuelta, and he comes here against one of the weakest fields he is likely to have ever faced in a Grand Tour. 

And now potentially with Carapaz out of the running, there is even more pressure on Nairo to step up and deliver, the team will be focusing on him now, rather than him and Cara. The TTT will hurt him, and the stage 10 TT will also cost him a lot of time, but he is capable of one of those mad, long-range attacks that can pull back a minute. Team-mate or two up the road, bridge up to them and power all the way to the finish, while the chasers take turns in telling each other to do the pulling, while Valverde pisses them all off. 

It looks like he has a massive chance of taking a podium here, given his pedigree and the opposition, but even at that price I find it hard to have any faith in him these days. 

Alejandro Valverde - 18/1

18/1, but he might as well be 180/1, Valverde is not winning this race. He's very capable of a good top 10, might well win a stage or two, and maybe the Points Jersey, but he won't be winning overall. He just hasn't been good enough for me this year, and it looks like father time is finally catching up with him. I can't believe he is as short as 7/1 with Ladbrokes. 

Tadej Pogacar - 28/1

His first ever Grand Tour and he doesn't celebrate his 21st birthday until a week after the Vuelta ends, but some people have been getting really excited about seeing how the young Slovenian goes in this Vuelta. He has had a pretty good season so far, the highlight of which was the win in the Volta ao Algarve in February. He took that race thanks to a win on the summit finish to Foia, on a climb similar to a lot of these in this race (7.8kms at 8.1%) and sealed the win with an excellent 5th place in the 20km TT, just 17" behind Stefan Kung. 

He followed that up with 5th in Itzulia and another big win in the Tour of California, thanks to a big stage win on Mount Baldy, outsprinting Sergio Higuita, 5" ahead of George Bennett. He won the Slovenian TT championships, finished 4th in the Tour of Slovenia, 7th in the Nationals Road Race, but failed to finish San Sebastian and hasn't raced since, he's been just preparing for this Vuelta. 

He is a superb young talent, he's a great climber, and he can TT and a lot of people are speaking about him in the same breath as Egan Bernal - he won the Tour de L'Avenir in 2017, Pogacar in 2018! He will have the experience of Fabio Aru working for him in the race, and will also have Henoa, Molano and Conti to help him and he is very capable of a top 10, maybe even a top 6, and given how weak the field is this year, I wouldn't even be surprised if he was capable of a podium spot. 

Wouter Poels - 20/1

Ineos come here without their big guns, instead two domestiques get their shot at 'doing a Bernal'. Wout Poels has been a long-serving worker for Ineos, helping Chris Froome and Geraint Thomas to lots of Tour victories, and a Vuelta victory back in 2017. That year, Poels actually finished 6th himself, ahead of Lopez, Kruijswijk and Chaves, and it was just one of 14 Grand Tours he has started. 

4th in the Dauphiné this year, 7th in Tirreno, 3rd in the Algarve, 3rd in the Tour Down Under, he himself has been in superb form all season. He didn't seem to me to be at his top level in the Tour, he was getting dropped a lot earlier than you'd expect of him in recent years, but you wonder if this was all part of Sneaky Dave's masterplan.. Could they come in here with Poels under the radar, having trained for the Vuelta during the Tour? It is the kind of stroke you can see him trying to pull. 

An excellent climber, he's good on the long stuff, but also is very good on short, punchy climbs, as his win in LBL will attest. He is also an ok TT'er, he seems to go a lot better when there is something at stake, rather than saving his legs to work for a team leader. He won the 18km TT in Paris-Nice last year, beating Alaphilippe, the two Izagirre's and several more rivals here. I think he's definitely one to watch.  

Tao Geogheghan Hart - 25/1

His team-mate TGH is fancied in a lot of circles of course, but the odds suggest that of the two, Poels is slightly fancied more. TGH is a real up-and-coming rider who really seems to be finding his feet now at the highest level. Winner of two stages and 2nd overall at the Tour of the Alps (behind team-mate Sivakov), he then went to the Giro and pulled off an excellent opening TT to take 7th place, 

A crash on stage 3 saw him lose 1'28" and he slipped down the field, but worse was to befall him on stage 13 when he crashed again and broke his clavicle. He was out for 3 months after that nearly and only came back at the Tour of Poland, where he finished 5th overall thanks to two solid final days in the hills. 

He's a tough one to figure out though for this, on his best form, against this field, you'd think he can go really well, a top 6 is definitely within reach, but what effect will not having raced for almost 3 months have on him? I'm a little concerned about that, so of the two, I'd rather be on Woet.. 

Esteban Chaves - 25/1

Chavito likes the Vuelta, and I like Chavito in the Vuelta having picked him at 200/1 to win stage 2 in 2015! He's had a tough time of it in 2018 when he got sick at the Giro and was ruled out for 6 months, but he came back strong with an emotional win in the Giro this year to show that his class hadn't disappeared. 

There are lots of rumours flying about that Chaves is in great shape and he comes here as team leader with no Yates's in the lineup. He rode well in Slovenia, finishing 6th, and he is sounding confident in his, and his team's abilities ahead of the race: 

“After the Giro d’Italia I did a recon of the stage in Andorra, there is a really nice climb and many of the other climbs I know well after living in Andorra for a long time. The individual time trial also looks like a punchy course with enough climbing, not just super flat and that is good for me."

The Andorran experience will be very helpful to him, and he tends to go well straight out of the blocks in the Vuelta, the stage he won in 2015 was the very first road stage after an opening TTT. His team wouldn't be the greatest in the mountains, but he'll do alright and I think he has a stage win in him. He looks big to me too at 33/1 in a race where we could see surprises. 

Rafal Majka - 28/1

28/1, he should be 100/1 - he won't be winning this race. I'd rather be on Formolo at 150/1. Top 10, but no higher than 5th.

Rigoberto Uran - 33/1

Uran comes here as part of a packed squad of quality GC riders, with Hugh Carthy, Sergio Higuita, Tejay Van Garderen and Daniel Martinez. This team could be anything in this race, it could rip it to pieces and come away with a load of stage wins, or they could descend in to confused chaos and not do anything!

I have a feeling though that Uran is coming here as the 'Patron' for Hugh and Sergio Higuita. He did alright in the Tour to finish 7th, but he was never looking like he would be able to do anything more, the days of the big attacks are gone I think, he's just a wheel follower now. If he follows wheels here he can finish 5th or 6th again, he will lose time in the TT, but should finish with the likes of Roglic on most stages, it's the likes of Lopez who could dance away and put time in to him on some of the tougher stages. 

Jakob Fuglsang - 33/1

Just like Movistar and Jumbo-Visma with their multiple team-leader strategy, Astana come here with a second GC hopeful. And that GC hopeful is a guy who was one of the riders of the year up until July, and went in to the Tour as one of the top favourites. An early crash set him on the back foot from day 1, and a later crash took him out of the race on stage 16. It's fair to say he didn't have the rub of the green during the Tour. 

So what sort of form does he come here in? Well, he's had four weeks to recuperate and recharge the batteries, but will he be ready for the rigours of three crazy weeks in Spain? Well, he doesn't seem to be a big fan of going to Spain in September, the last time he did the Vuelta was back in 2013, when he finished 29th, not coming close to finishing in the top 10 of a stage, let alone winning one (although super-juiced Astana won the TTT that year). 

Prior to that he did it in 2011 (finished a respectable 11th) and in 2009, when he was 56th, but managed three top 3 results (but no wins..). And it looks like the team is set-up to support a MAL challenge for the overall, Fuglsang might just have to fall in to line and play the 'Domestique de Luxe' to support him, as he has a far better chance of taking a decent final result. A top 10 will be the best he can hope for I think. 

David De La Cruz - 100/1 

A very late call up to the squad, replacing a very pissed-off Kenny Elissonde at the last minute, DDLC comes here having not raced a great deal this season, following a crash in the Tour of California in May. Maybe his 8th place finish in the Vuelta a Burgos last week persuaded Dave B that he was ready to take on the Vuelta. 

A favourite rider of mine since winning a stage in the Vuelta for me at 125/1 in 2016, DDLC has been with Skineos for two seasons now, and it's fair to say that he hasn't exactly set the world on fire since the move. 56th in last year's Giro, 15th in the Vuelta, it wasnt the follow-on we expected after his superb 7th in the Vuelta in 2016. 

He's capable of a good result from a break some day, but I really can't see him having the stamina or power after such a stuttered season to go for a decent GC result here. Instead he'll be working for TGH, who should be trying to land a top 10 GC place. 

Others to consider - Pierre Roger Latour comes here having only raced 3,500kms after an injury-hit season, but looked really good in the Tour of Poland, finishing 6th. He was France's next big hope a few years ago, he has a lot of class and guts and he comes here fresh.. Weak team with him, but that's par for the course with AG2R, he's one to watch though at a tempting 50/1.

Sergio Higuita could be a real revelation in his first Grand Tour, the 22 year-old Colombian has had a superb season - 13th in Valenciana, 7th in Andalucia, 5th in Alentejo (and a stage win, 3rd in the GP Miguel Indurain, 2nd in the Tour of Cali, with a 2nd and a 3rd place finish on two of the toughest stages and just a few weeks back warmed up for this race with 4th place in the Tour of Poland.

EF have some real experienced hands to look after him here and he could be a real livewire with a strong prospect of a top 10, if not better. He should go well in the early tough stages when he's fresh, and the last week isn't the hardest at all, so he could battle through and defend, even though he'll be getting tired. 

Wilko Kelderman, Ion Izagirre, Fabio Aru, Hugh Carthy are four others who need no introduction and will definitely feature heavily in this race. Fabio Aru is sounding very positive and enthusiastic about his rehabilitation and form coming in to this race, and he is a former winner after all.. He'll be very interesting to watch, and not just for the pain face he's going to make on Los Muchacos!

Conclusion

Well, the race looks between two candidates on the face of it, now that Carapaz is out. Roglic looks a rock-solid favourite, he will cope with most of the mountains, and he will destroy some of his rivals in both TTs, particularly the ITT. He has the best team here with him and he will be hungry to atone for blowing the Giro lead, when he looked unbeatable for a long time. 

Miguel Angel Lopez looks the most likely to really challenge him though, with his climbing abilities and his penchant for attacking even from a long way out and taking time. He has a decent team here with him too, one that will help him with said long-range attacks, and he looks ready to put on a big show here. He will lost over two minutes though to Roglic between the two TTs, the question is, is he capable of taking that time back in the mountains? I think he will go very close to doing so. 

Tadej Pogacar looks a star in the making and he will be very exciting to watch, given his season to date.. Let's just hope he doesn't suffer from burnout in the crucial second week. I can't have Valverde or Quintana, or Majka, but Kruijswijk could well pull off another podium spot given he will be there or thereabouts on all the mountain stages and will take a minute or more from the climbers in the TT. My main outsider though is Esteban Chaves, there are a lot of positive vibes coming from the camp about his form and 33/1 looks too big to ignore, he might just be in red by the end of stage 5. I'm also having a little nibble on Woet Poels at 20/1, he will be leading Skineos and can climb and TT when he really needs to. He doesn't get many chances to be a team leader, it's now or never for him. 

As for my pick, well I think Lopez has a great chance of finally taking a step on to the top step of a Grand Tour podium. He will take time on a number of stages off of Roglic I believe, and the lumpier course for the TT might just save him from being totally anhilated by Roglic. He will possibly win a stage or two which will put more time in the bank, and I just worry that Roglic will have that one bad day again that will cost him. I backed him at 5/1 a few weeks back when the prices first came out, he has fallen to just 5/2 or so now since Carapaz came out, but I think it might be worth waiting a day or two, you might get a slightly better price after the opening TTT when Jumbo might give Rogla a 30" head start. 

Recommendations:

3pts win on Miguel Angel Lopez at 3/1 or bigger in a few days, or take the 5/2 or 9/4 on him now it you want

0.75pts e/w on Esteban Chaves at 33/1 with various

0.5pts e/w on Woet Poels at 20/1 with 365

Overall Matchbets

Tadej Pofacar to beat Ion Izagirre - 2pts at 8/11

George Bennett to beat Mikel Nieve - 2pts at 8/11

Kruijswijk to beat Quintana - 3pts at 4/6