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Published on Wednesday, 14 August 2019 12:13

Vuelta a Espana 2019 

Who will reign in pain? 

It looked a wide-open race on paper last year, with no clear favourite, but the bookies got it mostly right with joint 11/4 favourite Simon Yates taking the title. The other 11/4 favourite, Richie Porte, didn't fare quite so well, finishing almost 3 hours down.

Surprise of the race though was Enric Mas, looking back on my overall preview from last year I didn't even give him a mention in the 'Outsiders' section.. He must have been 50/1 or bigger, but defied those odds to take 2nd spot on the podium, thanks to superb rides on stages 17, 19 and 20. Steven Kruijswijk was in a podium spot going in to the last mountain stage, stage 20, but Miguel Angel Lopez and Mas ambushed him with a fantastic two-man attack on the road to Collada de la Gallina in Andorra to both leapfrog above him. 

Our 10/1 pick Lopez took 3rd to land the each-way money, rising slowly up through the ranks after being way down in 44th after the opening TT. Michal Kwiatkowski finished 2nd to Rohan Dennis in that opening TT, but took the red jersey after finishing 2nd also on stage 2 and held it for 3 days. But then he went the opposite way to Lopez and slowly fell down to 41st place. 

We had a surprise leader for 4 days then, when break member Rudy Molard took nearly 5 minutes and leaped up 27 places. But Simon Yates took over after stage 9 to Covatilla, and apart from a two-day stint on stages 12 and 13 when breakaway man Jesus Herrara briefly got the Spanish fans excited, Yates wore it all the way to the finish. 

Our 9/2 pick Alejandro Valverde won the points competition, wearing the jersey for 14 of the 21 stages, with Dennis passing it to Kwiatkowski on stage 2, Valverde taking it on stage 7, Sagan briefly wearing it for one day after stage 10, then Valverde took over for the rest of the race. Elia Viviani was the 5/4 favourite, and looked a strong favourite, but he didn't once wear the jersey, and finished 3rd in the end, only thanks to his win on the final sprint stage. 

Thomas de Gendt was 9/1 on the off last year for the KOM, backed in from 14/1, and he delivered for his backers.. but he didn't take the jersey until after stage 17, with Luis Angel Maté holding on to it for all the 15 stages up until then. De Gendt had been lurking though, never really doing anything spectacular, not taking any stage wins, but getting in all the important breaks and picking up points here and there. Bauke Mollema put GC ambitions aside in the race though and got involved in lots of breaks, garnering enough points along the way to finish runner-up to TDG in the KOM competition. 

The team competition was won again by 8/11 favourites Movistar, they didn't have much success in the GC, but Valverde, Quintana and Carapaz were consistently there where it mattered. They finished more than 45 mins ahead of Bahrain-Merida, with Bora just 13" ahead of Astana in 3rd place. 

Rohan Dennis won both TTs, Elia Viviani won three sprints, with Nacer Bouhanni landing a rare win in a sprint too. Thibaut Pinot, Ben King and Alejandro Valvede won two stages each, and there was an emotional win for Michael Woods on the Balcon de Bizkaia. 

I wasn't going to do a Vuelta preview this year as I am on holidays, but I've managed to get a bit of work done before I left and will endeavour to write what I can, when I can, but don't expect the comprehensive coverage I usually manage! And as a result, it's not behind a paywall this time, all free.. just enjoy, and hopefully we'll have as good a Vuelta as we had at the Tour. 

The 2019 Editiion - A Wide Open Contest?

This year's Vuelta though feels more like a Paris-Nice or Tour de Suisse though, with no genuine superstar GC contender in the line-up. No Froome, Dumoulin, Nibali, Yates's, Bernal, Thomas or Bardet. We do have Primoz Roglic as the hot 7/4 favourite though, and after losing from a leading position in the Giro, it will be interesting to see how he bounces back.

Second favourite is last year's 3rd placed rider, Miguel Angel Lopez, who has won the Colombia Tour and Catalunya this year, but disappointed somewhat in the Giro, only finishing 7th. He finished more than 7 minutes behind Richard Carapaz who was the 7/2 3rd favourite to take his second Grand Tour of the year, but stupidly did a criterium race, without Movistar's permission apparently, crashed and is now out of the race. 4th favourite is the 3rd placed finisher at the Tour, Steven Kruijswijk, who will attract the each-way money given how consistent he is. 

Nairo Quintana is 16/1, Alejandro Valverde is 18/1, and given their Tour de France performances, it's hard to see the former winner and 3rd placers winning this year. And then you have the Ineos boys Woet Poels and Tao Gheoghegan Hart at 20/1 and 22/1 respectively and Esteban Chaves at 33/1, Chaves is looking forward to the race, on a lot of roads he knows well having lived in Andorra. 

Tadej Pogacar, Rafal Majka and Jakob Fuglsang are all at 28/1, and of those three, it will be very interesting to see how the young Pogacar goes in his first Grand Tour. He'll be riding alongside former Vuelta winner Fabio Aru, who although he's 40/1 in the betting is feeling pretty good and is hoping to continue his recovery with a good showing. Jakob Fuglsang had a rough time of it in the Tour and eventually succumbed to injuries on stage 16. He hasn't raced since, but is part of the support team to help Lopez's cause, and they look like they have plenty of options for breakaway success too. 

The Route

This year's Vuelta is a real mixed bag, with a fair amount of time trialling, lots of climbing, some sprint stages, and lots for the puncheurs/breakaway men. The race starts with a dead-flat 13.4km Team Time Trial in Torrevieja, with almost half the stage running along the beachfront. Stage 2 could be one for the break or puncheurs, on a 200km hilly route west of Benidorm that has a tricky, tough little ramp 24kms from the finish. Stage 3 is a bit lumpy, but should see a sprint finish in Alicante.

Stage 4 to El Puig should also be one for the sprinters, but they take a back seat for a few days then as the mountain men get the first chance to stretch their legs. Stage 5 is flattish for 160kms, then hits the climb to the finish on Alto de Jalavambre which officially is 11kms at 7.8%, but is mostly around 10% gradient for 8kms, a rude introduction to the small ring!

Stage 6 should be one for the puncheurs with the uphill finish to Puerto de Ares, stage 7 runs flat around the coastline for 80kms, then it gets lumpy for the next 100kms, culminating in the Cat 1 climb to the finish on the Alto Mas de la Costa, which averages nearly 12% for the last 4kms. 

Stage 8 should be one for the sprinters, but maybe not all will make it with a Cat 2 climb coming just 28kms from the finish. Stage 9 is an Andorran beast, it might be just 94kms long, but they pack in two Cat 2s, two Cat 1s and the Especiale Coll de la Gallina climb and we are surely going to start to see the pecking order take shape before we head in to the first rest day.

Stage 10 could be a really crucial stage too though, a 36km rolling individual TT that apparently is tougher than the profile would suggest, but one where the TT specialists will be looking to take time off the climbers. Stage 11 looks perfect for the breakaway men, with a brief dip in to France along the way, Stage 12 will be an exciting finish, along the lines of a Lombardia or Liege-Bastogne-Liege, with three tough little Cat 3s inside the last 40kms. 

Friday afternoon viewers will be looking forward to stage 13, a sharks-tooth-profile stage that has them climbing 7 climbs out on the course, before the back-breaking last 6kms up to Los Machucos, which hits 25% in parts (right). Last used in 2017, Stefan Denifl "won" from a break for Aqua Blue, holding off Alberto Contador in his last attempt to win a Grand Tour stage before retiring.

That stage was also significant in that Chris Froome cracked and lost 42" to Nibali and M A Lopez on the steep slopes to the finish, Steven Kruijswijk also struggled, finishing just 4" ahead of Froome.

Saturday afternoon viewers will not be looking forward to stage 14 though, it looks pretty boring. It should be a welcome break for the sprinters from the mountains though, a run along the north coast of Spain and a finish in Oviedo. Stage 15 makes up for a boring Satruday with a spectacular Sunday, four Cat 1 climbs over the 166kms, including 'two' ascents of the Puerto del Acebo, albeit from different approaches, the second time up going higher to the Santuario del Acebo finish. 

Stage 16 is another beast, with two Cat 1 climbs out on the course before the 34km, Esp climb to Alto de la Cubilla. It's a pretty steady climb to the finish though, one that you can set a really good tempo on. Stage 17 comes after a late rest-day on the Tuesday, leaving them with just four stages of note before the finale in Madrid. And you could almost say three stages of note really, as stage 17 is one for the sprinters, probably the most boring profile of the whole race. 

But they'll have needed that rest, as stage 18 takes them back over the high mountains, with a complicated, twisting route that sees them ascend and descend the Puerto de Navacerrada at different times during the day and attack the Puerto de la Morcuero from two different sides. In all they crest four Cat 1s, but the final Cat 1 tops out with 25kms still to go, most of which is a descent, followed by an uphill kick to the line of 4kms at 2.5%. 

Stage 19 will be another for the sprinters, but after a pretty flat day in the saddle, there's a surprise for them in the last kilometre, with an uphill finish over cobbles. Stage 20 is a lumpy old day in the saddle with 6 categorised climbs. It looks perfect for the breakaway, as the race is likely to be wrapped up by now and the GC men let the break go all the way. And the final stage is the 106km flat run to Madrid for the final sprint of the race. 

Where the race will be won and lost? 

There's no question that the two time trials are going to be vital in this race - the TTT may only be over 13.4kms, but we will already see time gaps of maybe 30" or more between some of the main GC candidates. Primoz Roglic, Steven Kruijswijk, Woet Poels, TGH and maybe even Esteban Chaves will get an early advantage over the Movistar and Astana boys, Pogacar and Higuita.

The individual TT on stage 10 will also play a big role in deciding who wins, and doesn't win this Vuelta. 36kms is a long TT, which could see the likes of Primoz Roglic take up to two minutes off of some of his rivals, particularly the likes of Lopez, Quintana and Valverde. 

The first main challenge for the climbers comes as early as stage 5, the climb to Alto de Jalavambre is mostly over 10%, and we'll soon find out who has the legs to win this race or not. Stage 7 is also another key stage, as the last 4kms average over 12%, there are sure to be some casualties. And stage 9 just before the rest day sees them tackle a series of climbs on an explosive 94km stage. 

Stage 12 could actually be a significant stage too, despite its not-so-brutal looking profile, those three small, tough climbs in 30kms near the finish could see some hard, fast racing, and we could get gaps and splits that might not be retaken by the finish.

But it might well be that by the end of stage 13, this race could be close to being over. The climb to Los Muchacos will take no prisoners, and as we saw with Froome last time (on his way to winning overall), even strong guys can really suffer on this climb. If there is one day that the climbers could really try to put time in to Roglic, this could be it. Expect Lopez, Hiquita, Chaves and Quintana to be leading the charge. 

And if it wasn't over by the end of 13, stages 15 and 16 will definitely finish some guys off. Stage 15 is a stage where we could 'well' see a flurry of attacks on the wonderfully named 'Puerto Del Pozo De Las Mujeres Muertas' or the 'Well of the Dead Woman', which averages over 9% for 3 of the last 4 kilometres. It tops out with just 40kms to go, 30kms of which are a descent to the foot of the Cat 1 final climb to the Santario Del Acebo. The last 8kms average almost 10%, with regular sections over 10% and as high as 14-15% in the first few kilometres. Someone brave could attack from afar and try to hold it all the way to the finish (I'm looking at you Lopez!)

Stage 16 ends in one of the longest climbs of the Vuelta on the Alto De La Cubillo. Lena, almost 18kms in length. A strong pace set by domestiques will strip away the weaker candidates, but we could well see a small GC group battle it out, but maybe the stage win will have gone to a breakaway candidate. Stages 18 and 20 look tough, but I'm not sure they'll have much impact on the outcome of the race, I think it could well be that we just see riders defend their positions now all the way to Madrid. 

Click here now to read my Overall Contenders analysis and final picks.

But before you do, check out the Zweeler Vuelta game, everyone with a Zweeler account gets a free game.. Lots of cash to be won!