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Published on Wednesday, 03 July 2019 20:50

TDF 2019 White Jersey Preview

Like the KOM jersey, this jersey was also introduced in 1975, and this competition has had various criteria over the years as to who were eligible to win it, but it is now just open to anyone who is under 26 years of age.

Since the young rider classification was introduced, it has been won by 37 different cyclists. Of those, six also won the yellow jersey during their careers (Fignon, LeMond, Pantani, Ullrich, Contador and Schleck). One almost won the Giro this year too, with last year's TDF white jersey winner Simon Yates coming oh so close in May.. 

On four occasions a rider has won the young rider classification and the general classification in the same year — Fignon in '83, Ullrich in '97, Contador in '07 and Schleck in '10. The only cyclist to win the young rider classification and the mountains classification in the same year is Nairo Quintana in '13.

The only cyclists to win the young rider classification in multiple Tours are Nairo Quintana (two wins), Marco Pantani (two wins), Jan Ullrich (three wins - also finishing first or second on the general classification on all three of these occasions) and Andy Schleck (three wins). 

11/8 shot Egan Bernal could only finish 2nd last year to 5/2 second favourite Pierre Latour, but that was understandable seeing as he was dragging Froome and Thomas' ass up and down mountains for three weeks. Latour has not had a great season, so it was not a massive surprise to see him left out of the AG2R squad, so it looks like it's practically a foregone conclusion that Bernal can step up this year and take the first of what could be several White jerseys. 

Simon Yates had followed his brother Adam who won this competition in 2016 in a very close-run contest with Louis Meintjes, just 2'16" separated them at the end. Emanuel Buchmann was 3rd, but was over 40 minutes further back. 

Bernal is still the second youngest rider in the race, over a year older than Jasper Philippsen, who is just 21yrs and 4 months. Bernal is 3 months younger than Gaud, but over 2 years younger than Mas. 

Egan Bernal - 1/2

There's not much more I can say about Bernal besides what I've already said about him in the overall preview. I think he will go very close to winning this race, and even if he finishes behind either Thomas or Fuglsang, or both of them (or even behind any of Quintana, Porte, Martin, Yates, Pinot, Kruijswijk, Bardet or Uran) he will still win the Young Riders competition. 

He will be looked after expertly by Ineos, he will have Poels, Kwiato, Castroviejo and Thomas with him on the mountains and he is very capable of winning a stage or two, taking time gaps and time bonuses too. He will get a head start in the TTT over Gaudu and the rest, Ineos should go very well in it, and he is a far better time triallist than Gaudu, Mas or any of the others, bar maybe Wout Van Aert, but he won't need to worry about him.

It's really hard to see how Bernal can lose this, other than if he suffers an accident or injury, or unless Thomas pulls rank as team leader and finds himself in a real battle with someone like Fuglsang, that might require Bernal sacrifices himself for his team leader. But even if he rides for Thomas on the big climbs and then rides at his own pace to the finish, it's very possible he'll still finish ahead of all his rivals. 

Enric Mas - 3/1

Enric Mas is over two years older than Bernal, and that is one thing he has going in his favour, a bit more experience. He also has two Vueltas under his belt, including last year's when he finished an incredible 2nd on GC at just 23 years of age, and with it also the the best young rider (if the Vuelta awarded such a prize).

As part of his miracle 2nd in the Vuelta last year he finished 6th in the 32km stage 16 TT, beating the likes of Oliveira, Campanaerts and Ion Izagirre, a massive improvement on any other TT he has ever done in his life. 'The next Contador' stayed with, or close to the main GC guys on most of the tough mountain stages and moved from 4th to 2nd on the penultimate stage after his stunning victory ahead of Lopez. 

He's been steady and consistent again this year, without setting the world on fire, 4th in the Algarve, 9th in Catalunya, 11th in Itzulia and 9th in the TDS. He's had mixed results against the clock, with a great ride in the 11km TT in Itzulia, where he finished 8th, beating Thomas by 6", but was only 34th in the second TT, losing 36" to Bernal and almost a minute to Dennis. 

He will be on his own a lot, he will not have much help from a team that is going to be set up to bring stages for Viviani and Alaphilippe (and a possible KOM jersey for Alap), but he boldly claimed in January that he was coming to the Tour this year to win it. And as Pat Lefevre said, he doesn't really need a team - "Ineos will control the race until a few kilometres from the top, then Bernal and Thomas will take turns to attack, and if you have the legs you can go with them and beat them. Movistar will block, and the more they block, the better it is for Enric."

2nd in the Vuelta would suggest he is capable of a top 10 at least in this Tour, but can we see him beating Bernal? In a straight out fight, I don't think so, and I'm not sure he has the form this year he had in the Vuelta, there's not really been any standout performances for me lately from him. 

David Gaudu - 12/1

With no Pierre Latour at Le Tour this year, the French hopes for the Maillot Blanc rest with the 22 year old from the Groupama FDJ squad. 34th in his first Tour last year, 4th in the Young Riders, he rode solidly, but was still more than an hour behind Latour in the Youth standings.

That though was with him totally riding for himself, as Pinot didn't ride the Tour last year - will he be forced to sacrifice his own chances for his team leader this year? 

Winner of the Tour de l'Avenir in 2016, Gaudu has been one to watch for a few years now and followed that up in 2017 with a win in the Tour de l'Ain, winning a stage to Oyonnax alongside his mentor Pinot, and an impressive 9th in Fleche-Wallone and 5th in Milan Torino. 

This year has been mixed, with 6th in the Tour de la Provence followed by a very impressive 3rd in the UAE Tour, thanks to a 3rd place on both the Jebel Hafeet and Jebel Jais mountain stages. He was only 18th in Itzulia and way down in 40th in the Dauphiné, but in between he took a decent 5th in the Tour de Romandie, taking a stage win along the way. 

His Dauphiné looks like a training ride to me, it doesn't look like he was too bothered about GC, that was Pinot's job.. He went in the ill-fated break with Dumoulin on stage 2 but ended up losing 5'34", then did a pretty weak TT, finishing 2'16" behind Van Aert, with Pinot beating him by almost a minute and Kruijswijk beating him by a minute and a half. He had a shocker on stage 6 though, losing almost 20 minutes and another 15 minutes on the climb to Pipay.

Those results don't fill me with any confidence whatsoever going in to the Tour, he'll have to step up drastically on those performances in order to be involved in the battle for white here.  

Tiesj Benoot - 20/1

Tiesj was a crazy 11/1 for this prize last year, 20/1 this year.. and in fact, he looks a better rider this year than he did this time last year. 12th in Tirreno but finished 4th, 8th and 9th in stages and lost time in the TTs. He was forced to take a break from racing for 2 months after breaking his collarbone when he crashed in to a team car in Paris-Roubaix, but he came back in the Tour de Suisse and pulled off a pretty impressive ride to take 4th overall. 

His TTs left him down again though, losing 1'38" across the two TTs, but his climbing was very impressive, finishing 8th on the HC finish to Flumserberg on stage 6 and 6th on the finish to St Gotthard, just 34" behind Bernal and 6" ahead of Enric Mas. He also finished an impressive 7th with Pozzovivo and Konrad on stage 9. 

Those climbing performances were certainly noteworthy, probaby the best set of climbing results in a stage race in his career. His TT abilities are going to go against him though, he will lose a lot of time in the ITT and Lotto aren't one of the best TTT squads either. He's done the Tour twice - finishing a very creditable 20th in 2017 on his debut and 4th in the Youth classification ahead of Guillaume Martin and Pierre Latour, but DNF'ed last year after crashing and dislocating his shoulder with just 5kms to go on the 5th stage.

He came back at the Vuelta, but really struggled and finished down in 95th place. It's going to be really interesting to see how he goes, he will like some of the punchier stages and I can see him in the breaks a lot - if he can find a break that takes a big winning margin he could leap right up the Young Riders category, and it might more than make up for what he'll lose in the TTs. But hard to see him beating Bernal, and no bookies are offering e/w betting anyway. 

Others

Laurens de Plus is one that could be worth watching too, the young Belgian is a very good climber and is pretty decent against the clock. His team should give him an excellent start in the TTT, and he will be climbing with, or close to Kruijswijk on all the big climbs, meaning he should finish high up on most stages. He was a huge loss to Roglic at this year's Giro after being forced to abandon on stage 7, it could have been a different matter had he him beside him in the mountains when he was left exposed by his weak team-mates day after day. 

24th in the 2017 Giro (5th best Young Rider), he DNF'ed the Vuelta in 2019, he will be working for Kruijswijk, so it's quite possible that he will be forced to sacrifice his chances in the Young Riders category for him, but on the flip side, as I said, he will be riding with SK for most of the tougher stages, and who knows, if SK has slipped out of GC contention he might just ride for LDP to try to help him finish high up the rankings. 

Giulio Ciccone will probably be stage hunting, and won't be bothered about losing time here and there, but Max Schachmann and Lennard Kamna are two very strong guys in the hills and against the clock and they could be close too. 

But it's almost impossible to look past Bernal as your winner, and as I've said in the Green Jersey preview, I've backed him in a double with Sagan at 11/10 with Betway. With no e/w betting on it at the moment from any of the bookies, you're really hoping for a DNF or a disaster from Bernal in order to collect, but if I was to pick one of the others to challenge him it would be Mas, his result in the Vuelta last year puts him head and shoulders above all the other young guys here, and if he can repeat that performance he should be first in the 'without Bernal' market, which I am asking Bet365 to add to their markets. 

Recommendation:

5pts on Sagan and Bernal double at 11/10 with Betway

2pts on Enric Mas without Bernal if Bet365 offer a price on him, I'd expect something around 4/5