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- Published on Tuesday, 02 July 2019 11:50
Who'll win the Green Jersey?
After getting disqualified from the 2017 edition of the race when 4/7 favourite to take the jersey, it was back to business as usual for Sagan last year as he landed three stage wins and won the points competition by almost double figures from Alexander Kristoff.
Sagan actually won by more points than 2nd placed Kristoff and 3rd placed Démare combined, amassing a huge 477pts, he was not letting anything to chance last year! His results in the first eight road stages were 2, 1, 2, 1, 8, 3, 2, 5 and he finished with an incredible 12 top 8 finishes, more than half the stages. By the 12th stage, following Gaviria's abandonment he was 210pts clear of Kristoff and the competition was all over, he was mathematically the winner already by stage 16.
But, it so nearly went up in smoke for him on stage 17 when he crashed heavily when he misjudged a corner on the descent of the Col de Val Louron-Azet, but limped home and got the all-clear to continue that night, nothing broken. So he continued, but he endured what he called 'my hardest day on the bike' on stage 19 when he just about got home inside the time limit.
There's no Gaviria this year of course, nor Démare who finished 3rd last year, but Kristoff is here again, and he should have some competition from Michael Matthews, Dylan Groenewegen and Elia Viviani too.
The points classification is the third oldest of the currently awarded jersey classifications. It was first introduced in the 1953 Tour de France, the first jersey was won by Fritz Schär. The classification was added to attract more participation from the sprinters, as well as to celebrate the 50th anniversary of the Tour. Although the best climber of the TDF was first recognised in 1933, the distinctive polka dot jersey was not introduced until 1975 when Lucien Van Impe took it home.
There was a big change three years ago to the way the points were awarded in the Green Jersey competition in what looked like an attempt to make it a more open competition for the other sprinters, and not just Peter Sagan's for the taking again. “We want to give more of a bonus for those who win,” Christian Prudhomme said in 2015 about the change to the points structure, referring to the fact that Sagan strolled to victory in the jersey in 2014 without winning a single stage.
That didn't stop him that year, and in fact he racked up three victories along the way as well, just in case, as he did last year. They changed it slightly again for 2016, changing the classification of stages and the number of riders who will get points, reducing the flat stages to 15 points winners from 20 last year, and they are sticking to that this year again.
They award 50 points to the winner of the flat stages and 30 to the runner-up meaning, the difference from 1st to 2nd is 20 points, compared to just 10 under the old rules. Points for the pure sprint stages are now awarded as follows - 50, 30, 20, 18, 16, 14, 12, 10, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 — compared to what it was previously: 45, 35, 30, 26, 22, 20, 18, 16, 14, 12, 10, 8, 6, 4, 2, so it's most definitely weighted towards the stage winners.
Stage Categories
The number of points up for grabs depends on the stage classification, and again this year they are awarding the same intermediate points for all stages.
For the stages they are calling 'Without particular difficulty' ("sans difficulté particulière"), or in other words, the Flat stages they are awarding points for the first 15 riders in the following allocation: 50, 30, 20, 18, 16, 14, 12, 10, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2. The Flat stage are stages 1,4,7,11, 16, 17, 21, that's one less than last year.
For the Intermediate Sprints (marked TV on the route maps) there are points for the first fifteen riders: 20, 17, 15, 13, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1 - with 20 points up for grabs for each TV they could play a big part in the outcome of the jersey.
For stages they are calling 'Hilly' ("parcours accidenté"): there are points for the first 15 places: 30, 25, 22, 19, 17, 15, 13, 11, 9, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2. The Hilly stage are stages 3, 5, 8, 9, 10, 12.
For stages they are calling 'Big Difficulty' ("grande difficulté") or Mountain Stages and the individual TT: there are points for the first 15 home: 20, 17, 15, 13, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1. These stages are 6,13,14,15,18,19,20, one more than last year.
The Contenders
Peter Sagan - 4/9 favourite
This is what I wrote two years ago "This could have been a very short preview, I literally could type "Sagan wins" and be done with it. It's a formality barring an accident. It really is. At odds of 4/7 you're basically betting that there is a 64% chance that he will complete the course, and you'd have to think based on that, he is still value at 4/7... If he stays upright he wins - is there a 36% chance of him getting sick or crashing? I'd say it's probably closer to 10-20%, so his price should possibly be closer to 1/4.."
Well, he was thrown out that year, showing that even at 4/7, there's no such thing as a sure thing. Last year he was 1/2, but rewarded his backers, it was more or less all over about 6 stages in.
And it could be the same this year, it really looks like 'Sagan wins' could do. Sagan won his record-equalling sixth green jersey, tying with Eric Zabel, and he's likely to take sole ownership of the record this year, and if not he still has plenty of time to make it, he's still only 29.
He was a no-bet for me last year at that price as I was worried some sprinters would put it up to him, and in fact, Gaviria was only 31pts behind him at the end of stage 7. He didn't have a great season by his standards last year, then he came to the Tour and won 3 stages and destroyed his rivals in the points competition. He's had a very poor season by his standards this year too, even worse than last year, with no success at all in the Classics, and no win until the 12th May against limited opposition at the TOC.
But he did start to fire again in the TDS, racking up a stage win, two 2nds and a 3rd on his way to winning the points competition. He only finished 4th in the Slovak nationals last weekend, but that was down to his once-a-year gift to his brother Juraj. What do we make of him at 4/9 then for this one? Well, he probably wins it, right? He will pick up points regularly in the sprint stages, he's capable of top 10 finishes, if not top 5 finishes in all the sprint stages, and there are a number of the lumpier ones that are tailor-made for him.
He will also get in breaks to hoover up the intermediate sprints and he should finish the race barring illness or accidents, so he looks a rock-solid favourite again. There is no one else in the race who is going to consistently pick up points like him and he'll probably be good for at least two stage wins.
Dylan Groenewegen - 5/1 Best Price
He was 8/1 last year and I really fancied his chances of winning a number of stages, we were on at 5/6 that he would win 2 stages or more and he delivered on stages 7 and 8.
He didn't have a great time of it in the opening week, only managing a 4th and a 6th, but it clicked in to gear for him in the 2nd week. Unfortunately he didn't last much longer than that though, abandoning on stage 12 to Alpe d'Huez, on the Croix de Fer, along with Greipel and Gaviria, but the heavy crash he suffered on stage 9 to Roubaix probably played a part in his decision to call it a day.
He's in really good form again this year, with 10 wins to his name, although a number of those came in races like the ZLM Tour and the four days of Dunkirk. He took two fine stage wins in the opening two stages of Paris-Nice, beating Bennett, Ewan, Jakobsen, Trentin, Degenkolb, Démare and Colbrelli, but other than those he doesn't have any big race wins to his name this season.
The team is here for Kruijswijk for the GC, but he has plenty of firepower for the sprints to call upon, with Wout Van Aert, Tony Martin, Mike Teunissen, Laurens de Plus and Amund Jansen, he should be close to the front for most sprints. In fact, he is favourite to take the first stage and I think he has a big chance of doing so, he could get his challenge off to a flyer.
He will find it extremely tough going in the final week though, maybe even before that with the tough Pyreneean stages. You're taking a punt with him that he'll make it all the way to Paris, but he did make it two years ago, and not only that, took the final stage too, but still only finished 7th in the Points Competition. He also finished it in 2016, but was way down in 160th and 33rd in the Points comp. There's no doubt he's a better rider than then though, but can he make it all the way this year? I think it's only 50/50.
Elia Viviani - 5/1 Best Price
Elia Viviani has a lot of making up to do after his disastrous Giro where he didn't take a single stage win, and cut an angry and frustrated figure. And the team seemed pissed off and frustrated with him too, they seemed to be doing all they could to set him up at times only for him to fuck it up. They were sometimes at fault too though, there seemed to be a lot of crossed wires.
He does have his A-team leadout here though, Richeze, Morkov, Lampaert, Devenyns and Asgreen are superb compared to the raggle-taggle bunch that were tasked with looking after him at the Giro. They were all with him at the TDS where they dominated the 4th and 5th stages to help him land two stages in a row, with only Sagan beating him on the uphill sprint finish on stage 3, catching him out through the twisting and complicated closing 500m.
This team are built around Viviani, there is no question about that - Alaphilippe will be on his own a lot, maybe getting some help from the likes of Lampaert and Devenyns on the lumpier stages. As will Enric Mas, once the road tilts seriously upwards, there will be none of them left. So their mission in this TDF is to deliver as many stage wins as possible for Viv, maybe even the Points Jersey too, but that would probably be second priority. Still, if he can win one or two of the first three sprint stages on stage 1, 4 and 7, then he will be in a good position.
Will he finish? Well, like a lot of the sprinters, he's going to struggle in the Pyrénées and will really struggle in the final week in the Alps. But he did finish the Giro last year, winning the points jersey along with four stage wins and 2nd in the final stage in Rome, and he also finished the Vuelta, taking 3rd in the points and winning three stages, including the final one in Madrid. He's not ridden the TDF since 2014 though, when he finished 3rd last on the GC.
What's his motivation this year? I think it's to take some of the pressure off after that Giro and get back to winning big races and get the team fully behind him again. And I think there's no doubt he'll take a stage or maybe more, but I can't see him being consistent enough over the three weeks on this course to feature.
Michael Matthews - 8/1 Best Price
Matthews was 12/1 for this competition last year, and was fancied to put it up to Sagan as the defending champion. It didn't start great for him though and went from bad to worse before stage 5 to Quimper when he suffered from vomiting and a resultant lack of sleep during the night and abandoned before the start of the stage.
Winner two years ago, taking advantage of Sagan's expulsion and bossing the competition with his team from then on. He also finished the Tour in 2016, taking 3rd in the points competition, and for the record, also finished the Tour in 2016, albeit way down the field.
Sunweb don't really have any leader for the GC now that Dumoulin isn't here, but Matthews seems very motivated to make up for that and to take something out of the Tour for Tom and the team. He was a bit put out by Dumoulin's withdrawal and said he was 'confused and disappointed' or something like that, it sounded like his training had been geared a bit more towards looking after Tom than preparing for sprint battles, but he should be able to ride himself in to it pretty quickly.
This is quite a lumpy course and I think he will do well again, I think he will finish the race, and could take a lot of points along the way at stage finishes and out on the road. He'll get in breaks and will have team-mates with him to rip it up and lead him out, they've not much else to ride for.
Caled Ewan - 16/1 Best Price
Caleb Ewan will struggle to reach the finish I think, he's now started three Giros and one Vuelta and not finished any of them. It's also hard to believe that he's not ridden the Tour before, that's a stat that surprised me.
He'll have his eyes on 4 or 5 stages in the opening 11 stages and could well take one or two of them, especially the hillier ones that will strip out or tire the heavier sprinters. He might hang around for one last sprint after the rest day, or if he's feeling good he could make it all the way to the final sprint on the Champs, but the temptation will be there to step off on stage 12, or after the stage stage 16 sprint, like he did in the Giro when he stepped off after his win on stage 11 to prepare for the TDF.
Even if he stays, I can't see him besting Sagan often enough to come close to him at the top, and he might also struggle to pick up as many points as the likes of Matthews and Groenewegen.
Julian Alaphilippe - 25/1 Best Price
A switch to a different type of rider with Alaphilippe, not a sprinter, but someone who will be involved in a lot of the punchier stage finishes and will be on the break a lot, especially if he's going for the KOM jersey as expected. Being in the break will bring him a lot of the 20pt intermediate bonuses, but also a shot at either winning the stages, or at least picking up some decent points by finishing in the first 3 or 4 (22pts on offer for 3rd on the 'hilly' stages').
So I think he will pick up lots of points just by dint of the the fact he will be involved in lots of different scenarios - some sprints, some hilly punchy finishes, breaks, mountain stages. But if he really does focus on the KOM, it might be that he holds back a little on some stages that he might have won from the break had they more mountain points, and also, on some stages with a lot of KOM points out on the course he might bury himself to pocket those, to the detriment of his chances at the finish, like what happened when he couldn't catch Fraile on the final hill of the stage to Mende last year.
He is a decent e/w price though at 25/1 if you think that a) he will pick up a bunch of points all through the Tour, and b) that a lot of sprinters might fall by the wayside.
Others
Alexander Kristoff will be involved in lots of the sprints, maybe not winning them, but will be top 6 on most of them. He might also get involved in a few breaks on lumpier stages, hoping he can do a Flanders and hang in there to win the sprint. And he has shown he can make it to Paris, and not only make it, but win the sprint on the Champs as well. In fact, he's finished all six of the Tour's he's started, and has finished 2nd, 4th, 5th, 10th, 2nd and 5th in the points competitions. He's also finished both Giro's that he started, not a bad record at all for such a big man. At 22/1 he is going to be an e/w punt for a place though, unless Sagan drops out it's hard to see him winning it.
Wout Van Aert is going to be a fascinating one to watch in his first Grand Tour. What will they expect from him, and what will he expect from himself? Will they ask him to step off mid-way through to protect him? Will he be cooked half way through in his first GT? Or will he be a major player in a lot of stages and like Sagan pick up points all over the place? We saw in the Dauphiné and the Belgian Nationals that he is in fantastic form, winning TTs against time triallists and beating the likes of Bennett and Alaphilippe in sprints. I think he could be a star in the first week, but whether he actually finishes the race, or saves himself for the rest of the season is a bit of a gamble to take.
The only other rider I can see maybe coming close by maybe placing high on a lot of the sprint stages and maybe getting in some breaks and taking intermediate bonuses is Matteo Trentin, he has finished the Giro three times out of three starts and three Tour's, although he did finish outside the time limit on stage 9 last year. But Matty White has made it very clear where the team's focus is this year - "We have one solid ojective and one jersey that we'll be chasing and that's a yellow one. Not a green one, a white one or a polka-dot one." So, no Green attempt for Trentin by the sounds of things.
It's impossible to look past Sagan, but the 4/9 is really only for the big hitters. But, if we double him with Bernal for the White jersey it becomes a little bit more attractive, you'll see that I'm all over Bernal for the White, so why not put them in a double that pays 11/10 with Betway - I asked them to add it as a market in their #betyourway section and they added it at 11/10.
Other than Sagan, Michael Matthews offers each-way value I think at 8/1, he should finish the race, he should be involved in a lot of finishes and breaks and Sunweb don't really have a lot else to ride for. One thing I'm also thinking a little bit about with Sagan - he has been very aggressive to me in the last 12 months or so, and especially in some of his sprints this year. John Degenkolb said he had to back off his own team-mate's wheel in the TDS sprint on stage 3 as Sagan was 'crazy and dangerous' bumping and banging his way in to position. If he carries on like that in the Tour, I wouldn't be surprised to see him cause a crash or maybe even get disqualified again - and it would clear the way for a Matthews win!
Recommendations:
1pt e/w on Michael Matthews at 8/1
5pts on Sagan and Bernal double for Green and White at 11/10 with Betway