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Published on Monday, 01 July 2019 12:50

King of the Mountains Preview

Last year's KOM competition saw Julian Alaphilippe take the much-coveted jersey after a pretty one-sided battle with Warren Barguil. He took the jersey after his win on stage 10 to Le Grand-Bornand and never looked back. 

I didn't even give Alaphilippe a mention for this competition this time last year, he certainly wasn't on mine, or almost anybodies radars for this competition. So much so that I had gone through candidates as far as 22/1 shot Egan Bernal and he wasn't there - he must have been 33/1 or bigger for it.

I wasn't expecting Alaphilippe to go so well in the bigger mountains, but he did what was necessary, taking the points in breaks in stages 10,11, 14 and really streaking ahead on stage 16 when he took the KOM on the two Cat 1s and Cat 2 on his way to winning the stage in Bagneres de Luchon. He added to his lead again on stages 17 and 19 from the break and in the end finished a comfortable 79pts clear of Warren Barguil. The rest of the top ten was made up of GC men, with Majka, Thomas, Dumoulin, Roglic, Martin and Quintana.

I often say that this market is a minefield to bet on, with no one really knowing who is truly going to go for the jersey, and often others you'd expect (like De Gendt in this year's Giro) not even making an effort to go for it. It was sometimes that a break member would win points early on and then decide to defend the jersey and focuses his entire race around it. Barguil was like that two years ago, Alaphilippe last year. 

But this year it looks like it's a pretty obvious two-horse race though - Alaphilippe has made no secret of the fact he is targetting it this year, and Barguil will have new-found confidence and belief after his stunning win in the French Nationals last weekend and is desperate to deliver some success for Arkea Samsic. It would be a big surprise I think if neither of them ended up taking the jersey at the end of the race. 

There are normally 20pts on offer for the first over a HC climb, but this year they are awarding double points to all the HC climbs over 2,000m, which is all of them - namely the Tourmalet, Izoard, Galibier, Iseran and Val Thorens. So there is now a massive 40pts on offer for the HC climbs, and points for the first 8 riders over the top as follows: 40-30-24-20-16-12-8-4. The rest of the points scoring system is as follows:

Category 1 climbs (13 in total): 10-8-6-4-2-1 points

Category 2 (12): 5-3-2-1 points

Category 3 (21): 2-1 points

Category 4 (14): 1 point

So there is a massive weight in favour of the five HC climbs, you will not be able to win the competition I think without having taken at least one or two of them. The first HC climb is the finish of stage 14 on the Tourmalet, which should probably be taken by a GC man. The next two are out on the course on stage 18, with the first (Col d'Izoard) most likely to be taken by the break, and quite possibly the second one too (Col du Galibier) if it's a day that the GC men decide to let to the break ahead of the next stage with the Col de l'Iseran and the one after to Val Thorens to come.

Stage 19 has the HC Col de L'Iseran in the middle, which is the Souvenir Henri Desgrange at 2,770m, and that is 50/50 I think whether the break makes it or not, a lot of riders, especially the French lads will be after the Souvenir prize, we could see a good battle between Barguil and Alaphilippe for this one. 

That stage 20 to Val Thorens could well be won by the GC men though, it could be flat out from start to finish and it might well be that only the strongest will come to the final climb in contention. 

The Contenders 

Julian Alaphilippe - 7/4 

7/4 for the man who won this last year, and is in the form of his life this year. A good bet or not? Well, he surprised last year with his determination to win this prize, he was on it from early in the race and never let up. He surprised me with his climbing ability, he had a record in the past of struggling on some of the harder, longer climbs, but he was just incredible, winning two stages along the way to boot. 

He comes to the Tour with an incredible record so far this season - 9 wins, incluing Strade Bianche, Milan San Remo and Fleche-Wallone. He warmed up for the Tour by winning the KOM jersey at the Dauphiné, with a stage win and by getting in the break on stage 8 to seal it. He will get in lots of breaks again, and he will possibly start things off on stage 5, it looks like a stage he will fancy, and it has two Cat 2s and two Cat 3s, but also he'll possibly wait for stage 6 as there are 34pts available out on the road with two Cat 1s, two Cat 2s and two Cat 3s, and then let the GC men fight it out at the finish on La Planche. 

Stage 12 could be one he fancies with two Cat 1s, he might take the first, but maybe not the second, then stage 14 has another Cat 1 out on the course, and if the break has been given enough rope they could make it all the way to the Tourmalet, but he might have to cede to a better climber on a tough climb like that. Stage 15 should see him in the break again, maybe taking another 25pts out on the road before the break is reeled in ahead of the Prat d'Albi. 

Stages 18, 19 and 20 have four of the HC climbs though, with 160pts available on those alone, along with a bunch of points out on the road, the jersey could well be decided in those three stages. We could see that Alaphilippe will have built up a good number of points up until then by snatching KOMs on lots of stages along the way, but we could see him take earlier climbs in these stages before the GC teams take over. 

There are only two of the HC climbs at the end of stages, with the Tourmalet and Val Thorens stages likely to be taken by a GC man, but probably not the same one, the points might be shared about. So, will he do enough in the other stages to win it? It might be tighter and harder than 7/4 would suggest, but you know he's going to be going for it and will beat most riders to most climbs if he does get in breaks.

Warren Barguil - 13/2

Going in to last weekend I wasn't going to give Barguil much hope of taking the jersey this year, he's had a pretty awful season so far, and just didn't look in any sort of form at all. Ok, he didn't do terribly bad in the Dauphiné, finishing 13th overall, thanks to being in the break on the final stage and taking 47" off the GC guys. He only finished 4th that day though, beaten by Dylan Van Baarle, but the signs were there that he was starting to show a little something.  

But I don't think anyone expected what happened last weekend though when he took the French National Road Championships, on a lumpy, but not mountainous circuit, being part of a strong break that managed to stay away and he outsprinted the other six guys, including Julien Simon and Valentin Madouas, with the peloton led home by Arnaud Démare, 1'18" later. That was a stunning ride from him, it's not something we've seen too often from Barguil, a win on a stage that wasn't a mountainous one.. 

It was a huge result for Arkea Samsic who have had a pretty miserable season, it will be a massive boost for them to be parading around the Tour for three weeks with the National Champs jersey on Waza's back. It will also give him a massive boost, as he had been lacking in confidence this season. With the jersey on his back I expect him to try to be involved in a lot in this race, and it might be that he hits it out on some stages for the KOMs from the break, but he could also hold back on some other stages hoping to stay with the GC groups and score well on some of the later climbs when Alaphilippe will be dropped. 

Stages 18 and 19 could be big for him, with 18 having the HC Izoard and Galibier, he could either try the break and take the Izoard, or hold back and maybe take a few points on the Izoard and hope to take good points on the Galibier if the break has been caught. And 19 with the HC Col de l'Iseran, again, it could be break or GC, he might stay with the GC men and try attacking close to the top to take the points. 

Based on his form earlier in the year, and the team's, you'd have to say he didn't really look like he had much chance, but the Champs win changes that hugely for me, and I think he will be challenging as best as he can, he will want to wear the jersey with pride and take the KOM jersey to go with it. It will be funning to watch him though, I think he will mark every single move by Alaphilippe and hope to outclimb him on the bigger climbs.

Giulio Ciccone - 11/1

Ciccone was a revelation in the Giro, he really went after that KOM jersey with gusto, right from the very first stage - he took it easy on the flat part of the TT so that he could blast up the climb in order to be the fastest there and take the first KOM jersey of the race. And he almost kept the jersey for the entirety of the race, he lost it for just one day on stage 12 when Gianluca Brambilla took the jersey off him. He got it back the very next day though, and in the end he won it by a massive 152pts, taking a stage win along the way too. 

This is a very different situation for him though I would think, I can't see him being given the freedom he had in the Giro to go on the attack all the time, he will be tasked with baby-sitting Richie Porte and will be needed to tow him back to the pack repeatedly when he inevitably loses touch. But, should Richie crash early on, or stupidly lose time in the first few stages, then it might be a different situation for Ciccone and he might be given to opportunity to go for it. But will he have the legs after a hard three weeks at the Giro?

Mikel Landa - 14/1

This is almost a copy and paste from last year... Landa is part of the tri-star attack from Movistar, and his chances of winning this competition depend on a number of things. Team orders - whether he is told to work for Quintana and forget about attacking and going in breaks; whether Quintana turns up and is in contention on the first rest day; whether Landa is 20 mins down on the first rest day (maybe deliberately); whether Landa just ignores the team orders and just says 'fuck it, vamos'. 

Clearly one of the best climbers in the world, and he's previously won the KOM jersey in the 2017 Giro, when he put his mind to it he was devastating, a KOM points machine late in the race. And it could be similar here. He might come with a late charge in the final week with those stages in the Alps, but that will depend on if the points had been shared around quite a bit and there's no one with a big lead. 

It might also depend on whether Quintana drops out of the GC reckoning as I said, because then Movistar could go fully rogue and attack relentlessly, day after day. If that's the case, then Landa could be a man on a mission again to take something home for the Movistar team. One to watch and think about on the first rest day, let's see where the land lies then. 

Vincenzo Nibali - 16/1

Now this could be a very interesting KOM candidate - Nibali finished 2nd in the Giro after a solid, if unspectacular second half of the race, moving up from 11th to 2nd between stages 12-16 as Primoz Roglic started to capitulate. He has said that he is not coming to the Tour to ride for the GC, that he will be stage hunting and possibly going for the KOM prize too.

Smoke and mirrors? With this potentially weaker lineup than usual, Nibali might find himself reconsidering his options after the 6th stage, depending on how well he goes on La Planche, he has won up here in the past of course in 2014, on his way to overall victory. If he is in contention, then his KOM bid is probably out the window and he'll push himself for as long as he's in with a chance on the GC.

But if he does go for the KOM, then it's going to be very interesting to see him going in the break on numerous days - but he's smart enough and experienced enough to pick out the big, key stages with all the points and focus on them.

And maybe where he has an edge over the likes of Alaphilippe or Barguil is that he is very capable of staying with the GC men on some of the big GC days and picking up big points there too, such as on stage 14 to the Tourmalet, stage 15 to Prat d'Albis, stage 18 with the Galibier and stage 20 to Val Thorens - we know Nibali gets stronger as others start to fade away. So he could well be another to wait and see on, plenty of time after the first week to reassess.  

Egan Bernal - 18/1

This is another interesting one, if Bernal goes full throttle for the GC, he could well pick up max points on some of the 40-pointer HC climbs, including Val Thorens, Tourmalet and Galibier - there's 120pts in all for those three alone. He will also finish other mountains at, or near the front, so by default will be picking up points here there and everywhere. 

The question is though, what really is the plan in the team, and if he is not no.1 in the team and is tasked to working for Thomas, then he won't get the freedom to go for too many points. Also, if he is the team leader, and is doing well on the GC, he might be happy to just defend and preserve his energy for the last week, and particularly stages 18-20.

Whether he will still be close enough to be able to take over the lead by virtue of top finishes in the last three stages remains to be seen, but I think that he has bigger fish to fry and will not be too bothered about the jersey. Again, one to wait and watch maybe. 

Fabio Aru - 18/1

Fabio Aru is an interesting one. He's had a terrible few years, he has not been able to get back to anywhere near the level he had back in 2015 when he won the Vuelta and finished 2nd in the Tour, or even the level of 2016 and 2017 when he was finishing top 10 on the GC in most races, including 5th at the 2017 TDF. 

But it would seem that it was a medical condition that was holding him back, as in March of this year he underwent an operation to correct a constricted iliac artery in his left leg and only made his comeback in the GP Lugano on June 9th. He was very happy with his recovery though and said that he had felt nothing but 'good sensations' ahead of his return, and he finished a respectable 22nd. He followed that up with a tougher assignment at the TDS, but got a good week's training in and even took a 10th place on the tough St Gotthard stage on his way to 21st overall. 

Aru has a lot of making up to do and points to prove, he at least owes a big result to Colnago after screaming 'Fucking bikes' at his Colnago after crashing in the Vuelta last year.. But will he be working for Martin? I think Martin has a good shot at a top 6 finish, possibly even a top 3, and if Aru has any sort of form he could be a huge asset to him in the mountains. Or will they let him do his own thing? Dan is pretty used to being on his own and looking after himself, can Aru really offer him anything? 

Given all the uncertainties around him and his fitness/priorities he's not one I'm interested in, but will be watching keenly to see how he goes. 

Others

Then you have the likes of Thomas de Gendt at 25/1, he was second favourite for the KOM at the Giro and made no effort whatsoever to win the jersey, maybe he's been saving himself for this? I think he will definitely have his sights on some of the tougher stages, but I'm not sure he'll be able to keep going day after day in order to win the jersey. Jesus Herrada is 33/1, but I think he will be totally focused on trying to finish in the top 10, I don't know if he'll be going for the KOM jersey, but again, he's maybe one to look at after stage 6. 

And then there's all the GC guys - Valverde, Quintana, Thomas, Fuglsang etc. It all depends on how hard they ride those stages with all the HC climbs. If they are ridden at kamikaze pace from the start and some of them turn in to GC battles a long way from home, then the GC men can pick up a lot of the 40-pointers. The Tourmalet and Val Thorens have 80pts for the winners, but also lots of points all the way down.

But will they be close enough to the KOM hunters to make up the difference in the last few stages? It will be close, but I marginally favour a non-GC guy getting it, as even if the GC men do battle out a lot of the big 1st Cat and HC climbs, the chances are that the points will be shared around, with different riders winning.. It's hard to see one rider totally dominating all the big climbs, but if one rider is capable of it, it's probably Bernal, especially on all the climbs over 2,000m. 

Outsiders to look out for - Nicholas Edet likes a break and is pretty decent in the mountains, but it's been a long time since he's done anything of note..

Romain Bardet could be an interesting one, possibly he might give up on the GC, maybe he should realise deep down that he will never beat the top guys in the GC with his TT abilities, or even beat some of them on the big climbs, so why not go for the KOM maybe instead? No one remembers who finished 8th in the Tour..

He could lose time early on, well he'll have already lost some in the TTT, but could lose extra time on any of the other stages in week 1 and get the freedom he needs to go on the attack from then on. He could have the likes of Vuillermoz, Gallopin and Frank go in the breaks with him to help him and he kick away from everyone to take the KOM points.

Stage 9 finishes in his home town in Brioude and it might be his only way to get on the podium to be feted by his followers that day - he could attack on the stage to La Planche and pick up a load of points, and maybe add to them on stage 8. Then really kick on in the big mountain stages. The French love a KOM winner, maybe he could be their next mountain king? At 66/1 with Betway he's worth a shot I think. 

Recommendations:

0.5pts e/w on Romain Bardet at 66/1 with Betway

1.5pts e/w on Warren Barguil at 6/1 with various