Details

Published on Wednesday, 03 July 2019 18:12

TDF 2019 Outsiders

Can anyone stop the top 3?

I have covered the main players to win the 2019 Tour de France in my Favourites Preview already, now let's take a look at the best of the rest to try to find someone who could pull off a surprise and land the big prize. 

Romain Bardet - AG2R - 28/1 best price

I felt a bid bad about dropping Bardet down to the 'outsiders' preview and he almost made the 'favourites' cut, but 25/1 and above was my line in the sand, and he fell in to that category. The main reason he is this price, and the reason I've dropped him down too, is that he just can't TT to save his life and will lose a lot of time to his key rivals in the ITT and his team will lose time in the TTT, putting him on the back foot. And I just can't see how he will make up a potential 2 minute deficit from the two TTs in the rest of the race. 

He will probably be going all in for the stage win in his home town of Brioude, and that might be what he'll have to settle for. He's not going too badly this season though with 2nd in the Haut Var, 5th in Paris Nice and he was sitting in 8th in Catalunya before crashing with Dan Martin on the final stage and damaging his ribs, forcing him to abandon. He also finished 9th in Amstel Gold and was 10th in the Dauphiné just a few weeks ago. 

Some good results, but no wins and nothing jumping out to suggest he will be able to improve enough to take a podium even, let alone a win here. His 5th in Paris Nice could have been better though, had he not lost so much time in the TT - he lost a minute to Egan Bernal over 25kms and even 22" to Nairo Quintana. 

The Dauphiné wasn't really mountainous enough for him and he wasn't happy with how the race went, but he then went to the Mont Ventoux challenge, got his team to blow things up, but when push came to shove in the finale, Jesus Herrada just danced away from him. Not a great confidence booster ahead of the Tour. Podiums in 2016 and 2017 at the Tour, but I can't see it this year for Bardet. Instead, he should be thinking about going for the KOM in my opinion, I've given my thoughts on that in my KOM preview!

Rigoberto Uran - EF Drapac Cannondale - 28/1 best price 

Rigo has only 3,000kms ridden over 19 days this year, thanks to a collar-bone break that he suffered on the second stage of Paris-Nice. His season had started ok with a 6th place in Colombia, but the collar-bone break robbed him of two months. He came back at the Tour of California, as part of his training regime in the states and had a good hit out to get back in the groove and managed 14th place, even though he was working for Tejay and Higuita (who ended up 2nd in his first World Tour event). 

He skipped Suisse and Dauphiné in favour of more altitude training and racing the Route d'Occitanie, and although it wasn't exactly a stellar field there he still performed well on the two tough mountain stages, finishing 4th and 3rd and took 3rd overall on the GC, 18" behind Valverde, and 9" behind Sosa in 2nd place. 

2nd place in 2017, it seems a long time ago now. He does have a pretty decent team here with him though, with Van Garderen, Woods, Scully, Craddock and Bettiol a very strong bunch of guys, and they should fare well in the TTT - Craddock and Uran were in the team that won the TTT in Colombia, add in TVG, Scully and Bettiol and I think they are a stronger unit. 

Although the team is strong and built around their leader, I'm worried about his ring-rustiness, he might just find that they ride away from him on the Planche stage finish and could struggle in the second week's barrage of mountain stages. But, if he can ride himself in to it on the first five stages, stays with the leaders on stage 6, then he might just start to look a bit more interesting. For now though, I'm not touching him. 

Enric Mas - Deuceninck Quickstep - Best odds 33/1

Enric Mas was a revelation in the Vuelta last year after a storming final week, rising from 12th to 6th to 4th, 3rd and took 2nd place after a monster ride on the penultimate stage to Andorra when he got away with Miguel Angel Lopez and put huge time in to some of his rivals.

He put 3'09" in to Valverde and Quintana and it saw Valverde slip from 2nd to 5th with just one stage left, and Lopez and Mas move on to the podium. 

It was quite the year from Mas last year, with that 4th in the Vuelta topping it, quite the improvement from 70th the year before, and he also finished 6th in Itzulia and 4th in the Tour de Suisse. 

He has started this year pretty well too though, with 4th in the Volta ao Algarve, 9th in Catalunya, 11th in Itzulia and 9th in the Tour de Suisse - solidly consistent, but no wins, 3rd and 4th in stages in the Algarve is the closest he's come to a stage win.  His TT'ing really let him down in Switzerland though, losing 27" in just 9kms in the first TT and lost 36" to Bernal in the second TT over 19kms, even Carlos Betancur beat him. 

He will be almost totally on his own though in the hills, especially in the really big climbs in the final week, Alaphilippe will be able to help him on a lot of the stages, but he won't be there on the really big climbs. The rest of the team seems set up to lead out Viviani for the sprints, with Morkov, Richeze, Lampaert and Devenyns, so I think Mas will struggle some day and have no one to look after him. Coupled with what he will lose in the TT, I think a top 3 is out of the question. A top 6 is also borderline.

Vincenzo Nibali - Bahrain Merida - 40/1 best price

Now Vincenzo Nibali is an interesting one - way down the betting and almost out of sight in this and many other previews you'd imagine, the main reason being that he has said himself that he has no interest in going for the overall, he's going to be stage hunting.. Do we believe him? Well he's had a busy few months with 3rd in the TOTA and a fantastic 2nd in the Giro, helped in no small part by two excellent TTs. He's surely tired after that, but Bahrain might be capable of pulling off a decent TTT with Rohan Dennis and if he can go well on the 6th stage to La Planche, he might reconsider his decision on not riding for the GC. 

He could well be still there with some of the better climbers when a lot of the others have fallen away and he has the experience and the race nous to pull off some decent results. There are a few lumpy stages that he will have his eye on, and he could steal time here and there, along with bonus seconds and he could find himself comfortably in the top 10, possibly pushing for a top 6.

It will be interesting to see how Rohan Dennis goes though, he was climbing very well in the TDS to finish 2nd, it looks like he has worked a lot on his climbing, possibly to the detriment of his TT'ing (finishing only 6th in the second TT in the TDS), and it could be that Nibali will work for Dennis to try to get him a top 10 finish.

.  

Others?

It's strange putting the likes of Alejandro Valverde, Tejay Van Garderen and Dan Martin down in the third bucket of 'Others', but their prices mean they find themselves here.

Alejandro Valverde - 100/1.. Huge price, but he will struggle in the TT, he struggles when mountains go close to 2,000 metres, and the team will be working for Quintana and Landa, and presumably Valverde will be working for them too. There are a few stages he could win, but I don't think he'll be making the top 6. 

Tejay Van Garderen had a great prep race in the Dauphiné, finishing 2nd overall just 20" behind Fuglsang, thanks to some strong climbing and a super 2nd in the 26km TT - well clear of a lot of his GC rivals. The problem with him too is that he will probably be tasked with looking after Uran, unless Uran has a problem in the first week. He has finished 5th twice in the Tour, but back in 2012 and 2014, and was 10th in the 2017 Vuelta, but that's the only time he has even finished in the top 10 of a Grand Tour, he often struggles in the final week.

And Dan Martin - 100/1 for him too.. seems huge, it's twice the price he was last year when he finished 8th.  And Martin has had a pretty decent year too - 4th in Valenciana (10th in the ITT), 7th in the UAE Tour, 23rd in Catalunya - but would have finished 5th had he not been brought down in Bardet's crash,  2nd in Itzulia (14th in the ITT), and 8th in the recent Dauphiné (20th in the ITT). He has vast experience, he can climb with most of the best and he seems to have improved his TT'ing too.

He will have Henao, Aru and Costa to work for him, but I wouldn't be surprised to see that team go all out for stage wins rather than work for Dan's GC ambitions. They will lose significant time in the TTT I think and that could see Dan a minute or so behind some of the favourites. He will also lose some time to the best TT'ers in the ITT, and he always tends to find a day in the really high mountains when he just can't go with the likes of Bernal. A top ten is very possible, a top 6 if he pulls off the TT of his life. 

Team Ineos have another outsider in Woet Poels, should any more misfortune befall the team. He was very strong looking in the Dauphiné, winning the hardest mountain stage to Pipay, beating Fuglsang, he looked very comfortable all the way up the climb and had plenty in the tank at the end. He also finished 7th in Tirreno (with four top 10 finishes), 3rd in the Algarve (with a 2nd and 3rd place finish) and 3rd in the TDU at the start of the year. 

He of course is here to work for the two team leaders, but if he were to be given a chance to ride for himself he could well top 6 it, maybe even podium. The TTT will probably have him close to the top 10 and he might just stay there. When he won the stage at the Dauphiné I backed him for fun at 200/1, he's now just 40/1, there's not much value in that any more. 

Rohan Dennis I briefly touched upon in the Nibali piece, he has been working hard on his climbing in the US and it seems to be paying dividends. 11th overall in the TOC, he finished 8th on Mount Baldy, he then went to the Tour de Suisse and was very impressive - He won the opening TT, but it was in the mountains he impressed me - 3rd on the stage to Gottard, he came home with Pozzovivo just 23" behind Bernal.

He didn't do as well as was expected in the TT, but given the effort he had put in on the Gottard that was understandable, and he still finished a respectable 6th, ahead of all the other GC guys, including putting 19" in to Bernal. And then on the final mountain stage to Goms, he came home with Bernal in 3rd place, 50" ahead of Frank in 4th and over a minute ahead of the other GC men.

He might drag that team to a respectable TTT showing, he will do a top 6 in the ITT, possibly even win it, and he could well be right up there close to some of the best climbers on the mountain stages, especially the shorter ones. At 80/1, he could be a fun outside bet to be cheering on too, and a top 10 looks a decent enough bet at 3/1 too.

Emanuel Buchmann - finally, Buchmann - not a rider that immediately springs to mind as a contender for the TDF, but his record this year has been pretty impressive. 1st and 2nd in his first two races of the year, 4th in the UAE Tour, 3rd in Itzulia with a win on the mountain stage to Arrate ahead of Adam Yates, 7th in Romandie and another impressive, consistent ride in the Dauphiné to finish 3rd, just 1" off 2nd place. He was 5th in the TT there, ahead of Fuglsang, Yates, Porte, Pinot and Quintana. 

He was overlooked at the Tour last year in favour of Majka, but did the Vuelta instead, placing 12th, and was 15th in the Tour in 2017. Obviously the team will be looking after Sagan as he could deliver a number of stage wins and the Green jersey, but Buchmann has Konrad, Muhlberger, Burghardt, Oss and Gatto to help him out and given his form this year, especially on the climbs and his ability in TTs, he should be good enough for a top 10. 

And that's it really, I've mentioned ten outsiders here, on top of the nine I've gone through in the 'Favourites' preview - a huge number of riders who are in contention for top 10 places, top 3 places and the win. And yet, we could still get someone like Richard Carapaz come out of the woodwork like at the Giro and win at 100/1. I've not even mentioned Ilnur Zakarin, Michael Woods, Marc Soler, Bauke Mollema, Guillaume Martin, Patrick Konrad or George Bennett, all quality riders too who will be close to the top 20. 

Were will the race be won and lost? 

Stage 1 and 3 look innocuous, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a favourite or two caught out, either in the tricky, small roads around Belgium or the winds on the flat lands of northern France - Bernal needs to be on his guard... Stage 2's TTT won't decide the winner, but it will put some on the backfoot like Pinot, Martin and Bardet. The first real test for the GC men comes on stage 6 with the finish atop the extended La Planche Des Belles Filles.

The last time they finished here in 2017 there were riders all over the road - Aru won it, Martin was at 10", then Porte +20", Bardet +24", Uran +26", Quintana +34", Thomas +40", Fuglsang +1'07" and Buchmann +1'17". There wasn't much between some, but they have added another steep kilometre to the climb and it could see far bigger gaps. Thomas won't want to lose 40" again, nor Fuglsang and Buchmann over a minute. Bernal should be fine though. 

Stages 12-15 could well play a major part in sorting out the top ten though of this race - 12 is a tough stage with the Peyresourde and Hourquette d’Ancizan in quick succession before a fast 30” descent to Bagneres de Bigorre - if you get dropped on the Hourquette you may not get back in. Stage 13 is the crucial TT that will put big time gaps between those who can and can't time trial - this is where Bardet, Pinot, Uran, Martin and Landa will struggle and Thomas, Dennis, Kruijswijk and maybe even Nibali and Adam Yates will gain time.  

Stage 14 and 15 are two more tough mountain stages, including a finish on the Tourmalet and the Prat 'Albis. Then the race finishes with three brutal stages in the Alps, where we will see a combination of riders racing for places in the top 10, and riders defending their positions too in the GC, KOM competition, white jersey etc. - lots of mini battles going on. 

One potentially important thing to keep in mind in a race that could be very close, are the time bonuses of 10, 6 and 4 seconds that are being awarded out on the course in eight stages, namely 3, 6, 8, 9, 12, 15, 18 and 19. On stage 3 it comes on the Cote de Mutigny, just 15kms from the finish and might tempt some to go for it, Stage 8's is on the Côte de la Jaillière which comes just 10kms from the finish, and on stage 12 it's at the top of the Hourquette, so if someone attacks and gets the bonus and holds on for the stage win, that's a very nice 18 bonus seconds up for grabs. 

Stage 15's is on the Mur de Peguiere, 38kms from the finish, it might have been taken by the break, and on stage 18 it's at the top of the Galibier, 18kms from the finish, so again, someone could take 18 bonus seconds with a strong attack. On stage 19 it's atop the Col de L'Iseran, the highest point of the Tour. The battle for them could be just as hard-fought as the finish of the stages, if you can take 2 or 3 of them that's could be a very important 20-30 seconds. 

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS:

At least 19 contenders, there can only be one winner. Two contenders from Sky, there can only be one winner. The logic says go with Thomas, the team should be behind him, he is the reigning champion.. but the heart, and the formbook says go with Bernal. Adam Yates has a big chance of a top 3 too I think, he could even win it. Fuglsang represents the all-conquering Astana squad and comes here as one of the form riders of the year. Richie Porte could be anything - he could stun us all and smash the TTs and climb with the best in the mountains, but he's too much of a risk to take on until we see how he goes on La Planche I think. 

Nairo Quintana will probably disappoint once again, Landa could well be a better bet for them, but will he feel the effects of a tough Giro? Thibaut Pinot will be there or thereabouts, his TT will scupper his chances though, whereas Steven Kruijswijk could be another strong contender for podium given how strong his TT is, and how well he climbs. Nibali and Bardet should go stage hunting or KOM hunting, Uran will be a solid top 10 but maybe around 8th place, Dan Martin 9th or 10th, but again might go stage hunting, no one remembers who finished 8th or 9th. 

The money had come for Thomas in the last week or so, moving him from 4.2 or so to 3.75 on Betfair. The result was that Bernal has been pushed out to 7/2 after falling as low as 9/4 after Froome crashed. But in the last few days it has flipped the other way, with Bernal now in to 5/2 and Thomas out to 10/3.  I don't want to back Thomas, and as for Bernal, although he won in the TDS, he didn't overly impress me, when he struggled to put serious time in to Dennis.

Instead, I'm having a go at a few at bigger prices, Adam Yates I think has a great chance this year, he's climbing very well, he will fancy some of the punchier stages with the steep finishes where he could pick up bonus seconds. He is also smart enough to go for a lot of the bonus seconds out on the route, like on the Hourquette and the Galibier, 8" here and there could be very valuable. 

I also think Steven Kruijswijk will play a big part in this race and am backing him...... Also, just to have a long shot running for us, Rohan Dennis could be a surprise outsider and is a very big price, he could give us a bit of fun over the three weeks if he can climb as well as he did in Switzerland, I can't see him win it but a top 10 is very possible, maybe even a top 3 if things really go well for him in the mountains.. 

Recommendations:

1.5pts win on Adam Yates at 12/1 with Betway

2pts on Adam Yates to finish in the top 3 at 3/1 with Betway

1pt win on Steven Kruijswijk at 22/1

2pts on Steven Kruijwijk to finish in the top 3 at 11/2 with Betway 

1.5pts on Rohan Dennis to finish in the top 10 at 3/1 with Betfair

0.5pts on Dennis to finish in the top 3 at 16/1

Matchbets

Dan Martin to beat Buchmann - 3pts at 4/5 with 365

Egan Bernal to beat Geraint Thomas - 2.5pts at 4/5

Jack Haig to beat Sebastien Reichenbach - 2pts at 11/10

Fuglsang to beat Porte and Kruijswijk to beat Bardet - 3pts at 11/10 with Will Hill