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Published on Saturday, 27 July 2019 16:11

TDF 2019 Stage 21

Rambouillet to Paris

Sunday 28th July, 127kms

The final act of an incredible Tour de France. The final stage in Paris, the final chance for the sprinters to do battle on the bumpy cobbles of the Champs Élysées. Caleb Ewan has two stages, Viviani, Sagan and Groenewegen have one each.. 

So who's going to take this one? Can Ewan take a hat-trick of wins? He is certainly the rider in form and is full of confidence and a great leadout that will get him in the right place.. But can he finish it off on the cobbles? Viviani is desperate for a stage win, and now that Alaphilippe has lost the race the full team will be back behind Viviani's bid to end the race on a high. 

Stage 20 Review

This stage had it's share of drama before the stage even started, with torrential rain, floods, debris on the roads and thunder and lightning causing the organisers to consider cancelling the stage. Rumours were flying, Betfair markets went berserk, with people putting thousands on Alaphilippe to finish in the first three and Bardet to win the KOM.. Then almost as quick the word started to filter through that Thierry Gouvenou had confirmed to French TV that the stage was on, cue more carnage as the prices swung back the other way. 

And so, they started as planned, but with the cloud hanging over their heads that the stage could be shortened to 11kms from the finish. Thankfully that didn't have to happen and the race was on. A big break went and had around 2'30" hitting the climb to Val Thorens, and a split saw Vincenzo Nibali, Ilnur Zakarin, Perichon, Gallopin and Woods form the lead group. 

With 13.5kms to go Movistar made their first move and the reaction to it saw Alaphilippe finally go out the back door, and he cracked really badly. Unfortunately Romain Bardet also was dropped over 10kms from the finish, and with it the dream it seemed.. Jumbo continued to push, Bora helped, but with but with about 7kms to go Nibali was the only survivor of that break, but the gap was down to about 40". 

But Nibali kept going, as there was a stalemate behind. Movistar did a Movistar and pulled off a pathetic attempt at doing something, with Landa attacking with 1.5kms to go, then Valverde came and went past him to take 2nd. Bernal rolled home in 4th beside Thomas and sealed the win, but glory of glories, in only finishing 4th he didn't take enough points to dethrone Bardet as king of the mountains and WE LANDED A 66/1 WINNER!! WOOOOP!!

And we also landed the White/Green double, but unfortunately the number of finishers went tits up, incredibly we've had the lowest rate of attrition this year in decades. I suppose it's good that there were few crashes, but we weren't helped by the organisers increasing the time limits on several of the mountain stages and stage 19 being cancelled, I'm certain that at least 8 would have missed the time cut in Tignes. Same with Stage 20 today, if that was full length, we could have seen more eliminated. 

Steven Kruijswijk did the business too for us, so we had the winner at 4.8 (and laid Alaphilippe at odds on) and Kruijswijk for the top 3 at 11/2. Stage bets today were down the pan though, Gaudu hung in there longer than Martin, which is annoying and Nibali also beat Yates, not one many saw coming I would think. 

The Route

The usual procession in to Paris, a short run of just 127kms, 55kms of which are doing the laps around the Champs. 

After 62kms they enter Paris, and pass the finish line for the first time after 73kms before proceeding to do eight laps (one less than last year) of the 6.5kms circuit, before the final charge up the cobbles of the most famous finishing straight in cycling.  All you need to know really is that you need to be in the first 10 coming in to that final chicane and right turn on to the finishing straight, but you don't necessarily have to be in the first three, you can still come from 4th or 5th place in the last 200m like Greipel and Kittel have done in the past. But kicking from the front like Groenewegen did two years ago is also a good move!

Contenders and Favourites

Caleb Ewan - the man with the confidence, the man with the speed, the man with two stage wins and the ability to come from 7th place with 250m to go to winning by a bike length. The man with a whole team behind him that will work their asses off in the last 5kms to get him on the wheel of the DQS leadout going through that last bend and on to the finishing straight where he will kick for the win. 

But - he is very light.. It worked against him in the uphill, bumpy sprint in stage 4  though, his back wheel was bouncing all over the place and he couldn't get the traction down. Kelly, Wiggins and Smith all raised this point on Eurosport last week, they were worried about it too. But - Groenewegen is just 3kgs heavier, and he's won on the Champs. Mark Cavendish is also 70kgs like Groenewegen and he won four times on the Champs Elysées. If he can sprint as fast as he did on stage 16 though, it might not matter how much he bounces around he could still win. 

Elia Viviani will now have the whole team behind him again, with Alaphilippe likely to take a massive pull for him in return for all the work Viviani has done for Alap in the last 3 weeks. The entire team will be pulling in the last 5kms, and Richeze and Morkov are two of the best on a finish like this, will lead through that final bend, with Viviani in 3rd wheel and he will be released with 250m to go.

Dylan Groenewegen though has been there, done that, bought the T-shirt, having won this impressively in 2017. Jumbo though are now down Tony Martin and put a huge effort in today to pull SK on to the podium, so I'm not sure what sort of leadout he will have. For that reason, I'm avoiding him. 

Peter Sagan will probably be 4th again, if one of the sprinters finally has an off-day he may even take a top 3 spot. Alexander Kristoff also is a former winner here, winning with superb power last year, beasting it up the finishing straight. He has been hiding away for the last few days, dragging himself over the climbs, and he could be a big danger tomorrow too at a big price. 

Hard to see any of the others getting involved again, Colbrelli and Matthews just aren't fast enough. 

So all down to the last sprint, one last effort - and I think we could be looking at another stage win for Caleb Ewan, I think the team will be the best in the finale, and he has the speed. Alex Kristoff could come close too at a decent price. 

Recommendations:

2pts win on Caleb Ewan at 9/4 with Betway 

0.5pts e/w on Alexander Kristoff at 14/1 with Betway

Match Bets 

Richeze to beat Barguil and Kristoff to beat Matthews - 3pts at evens

Ewan to beat Groenewegen - 3pts at 5/6