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Published on Friday, 26 July 2019 19:48

TDF 2019 Stage 20

Albertville - Val Thorens

Saturday 27th July, 131kms

The final mountain stage is going to be a history-maker, as it's the first time in the history of the Tour that there has been three mountain-top finishes above 2,000m, with the monster 35km pull to Val Thorens waiting for them at the end.

It might only be 131kms long, but this is going to be a cracking stage - 4,450 metres of climbing, almost 70kms of the 131kms are going uphill, including a 21km and 33km climb! The race featured a stage that started from Albertiville last year too, finishing in La Rosiere, won by Geraint Thomas. 

Stage 19 Review

My oh my, can this Tour get any crazier or more entertaining?! What a bonkers stage, Bernal had the stage in the bag after a brilliant attack on the Izoard, Alaphilippe was cracking, Bardet was struggling to take any KOM points today as Caruso, Bernal and Yates made a big move for the jersey and suddenly it all stopped. 

Bernal though was destroying the others and could have taken even more time on the final climb, but as it is, Alaphilippe is still hanging in there in 2nd, but is 48" behind Bernal, with Thomas a further 28" back. Bernal's attack again was incredible - at first, it didn't look like an attack, like yesterday, he went to the front, accelerated a little, then just put down the power and just rode away from everyone. He had multiple Grand Tour winner Vincenzo Nibali, Warren Barguil a former KOM winner, Simon Yates, a double stage winner and Rigo Uran on his wheel and he distanced them all. 

Kriujswijk actually tried an attack today and stretched things out, and he was looking strong, there is a high chance I think that he would have gained enough time on Alaphilippe by the finish today to take the 3rd podium spot behind the two Ineos boys. There is still time to do it tomorrow though on Val Thorens, the climb he has been waiting for apparently.. 

It was a horror day for Pinot though, the warning signs were there early in the stage as he went back to the medical car and looked in obvious pain. They tried to put a dressing on his leg, but soon after that he stopped to cut it off again, and the writing was on the wall when all his team-mates left him behind and gave him a pat on the back as they rode past. He stepped off shortly after that in tears, it was a heart-breaking end to his Tour, one in which he had performed at his highest level in a long time.

The cause? Apparently a rest-day bang on his handlebars had damaged a muscle in his thigh. Amazing how something so innocuos ruined his Tour, and it was amazing also that his price was still only 4.2 this morning, clearly they kept it very well covered up. 

The Route

BIG CHANGE, SEE UPDATE AT THE BOTTOM - STAGE IS NOW JUST 59kms LONG UP TO VAL THORENS

The stage climbs more or less from the start, although the first part is basically a false flat as it's quite gentle. After around 17kms they start climbing the Col du Meraillet, the first part of a two-part ascent. The Meraillet is 13.5kms long, but they carry on climbing after the summit, straight on to the Cormet de Roselend. By the time they crest that after 37.5kms they will have climbed 20kms at an average of 6%.

19kms of a descent, 13kms of flat roads and then on to the climb of the Cote de Longefoy  (6.6kms at 6.5%), which tops out with 54kms to go, but the summit comes some 4kms after the KOM. 10kms of a descent, a short run along the valley and they hit the foot of the final climb with 33.4kms to go. 

The final climb of the TDF 2019 is a monster - over 33kms, averaging 5.5%, but that average is not a true reflection of the difficulty of the climb, as it goes up in steps with sections of flat and even downhill along the way. The last 9kms are a pretty steady gradient though of around 6.5% average, with the last kilometre 8%. 

Contenders and Favourites

So one more stage to go to reshape the GC, and we could still see some major changes in the top 10. Bernal looks home and hosed though, that final climb to Val Thorens just looks like another opportunity for him to charge away from the others and put even more time in to them. He was senstational today, again, it was a sort of stealth attack that suddenly just exploded. Thomas teed him up, he clearly doesn't have the legs to do what Bernal did, but he did stretch things out, put a few more guys out the back door, and then Bernal took it up. 

If he does that again tomorrow in that last 7kms, no one will be able to live with him. Ineos will look to keep the pressure on all stage as they know they want to get rid of Alaphilippe again and get Thomas on the podium too for sure, and also, they will know now that Bernal can take a stage to cap the race for them. Bernal actually only raced really for about 10kms today - ok, the pace was high all day, but I tweeted about 5kms in to the Iseran that he was 'looking VERY good', you could see he was the most at ease on the climb. 

He then went, sprinted a few kilometres to the top then about 7-8kms on the descent, so he didn't actually use that much energy at all and all the others looked to be absolutely on the limit. He's only 2/1 for tomorrow again with Betway, but that actually looks like a bet to me, Bet365 are probably closer to the price at 6/4, I wouldn't be surprised if he went off 5/4 or so. 

Thomas looks limited, and in fact he could be under pressure from Kruijswijk now for 2nd place, Thomas attacked again, but got nowhere, SK was biding his time and still looked strong and fresh. All Tour I've been hearing that he is waiting for a big attack on Val Thorens, a stage he has trained a lot on. If he goes and really puts Thomas under pressure, I think he could crack him. Alaphilippe is definitely going to crack again I think, this climb is just so long, they can crank up the pressure like they did today and when the attacks come he'll go backwards. That last 7kms or so after the easier section should see them put a minute or so in to him. 

Landa has looked limited in the last few stages too, I'm not sure he has the legs after a tough Tour and the Giro, and Quintana cracked early today too. Nibali and Uran looked good for a while today in the break, but they were easily caught so there was no major power there either. Uran was true to the word though as I mentioned last night, he went on the attack instead of sitting with the GC men. 

Simon Yates looks like the only one who can put it up to Bernal, but as we saw today, even he wasn't able to stay with Bernal when he turned on the gas near the top of the Iseran, but if he can go in the break again tomorrow, and gets a 2-3 min head start on the Val then he might make it. But as we saw today, when Ineos step on the gas, time gaps fall very quickly. And they will possibly have the added power of G pulling at the front now as well for Bernal, hoping they get rid of Alap. 

There is the matter of the Cat 1 Cote de Roselend to get over though inside the first 36kms, that's a nasty 20kms in length. Romain Bardet really struggled today on the flat section before the Iseran when the peloton were lined out and going full gas, he missed the break of the day and any chance of getting KOM points. He did though recover to join the GC group and stayed with them most of the way up the Iseran, so the legs are still good.

He is back to being the 4/7 favourite for the jersey again though, as I guess, like me, people are expecting him to have an easier time getting in the break tomorrow as it is uphill more or less from the start. If he take the Cat 1 climb and the Cat 2 that comes after 75kms then he'll be on 101pts, but if he doesn't take more than 13pts between the two climbs and Yates wins the stage, he will jump above him on 99pts. If Bernal wins the stage, he'll be on 98pts.

So still all to play for, but I'm laying some more at 1.7 on him in case he struggles to get in the break again and Yates or Bernal pass him out, I have a four-figure payout coming on him, so want to take some more cash off the table. 

Short preview tonight, but hard to look past Bernal on the form he was in today, and the others all look on the limit. Final podium could well be Bernal, Kruijswijk and Thomas, I'm hoping so, it's my best possible result. 

But who's to say we don't have even more drama tomorrow and Mikel Landa attacks 70kms out and does a Froome..... Just enjoy it, we might not see such a great Tour for a long time. 

UPDATE: 22:00 - The route has been changed to just a 59km stage due to adverse weather conditions and the dangers of more landslides. It is now just a 16km  run along the flat before a glorified hill climb up to the original finish at Val Thorens. It means the break has almost no chance of making it I think, the GC men will go full gas from the bottom and any break that got away in the first 26kms will not get very far and will be reeled in half way up the climb. And I think Ineos will still rip the race to pieces and Bernal will still win, so I'm sticking to my original bet below. 

It does make a big change to the KOM betting though, with no points available on the first two climbs any more, it's all on the HC climb to Val Thorens. And as Bernal will probably win the stage, he's very much in the running now to take the jersey off of Bardet. He is still 3/1 at Ladbrokes, that might be worth taking if you're a bit nervous about your bet on Bardet.. Or just lay some more at around evens on Betfair and enjoy the stage. 

Recommendations:

3pts win on Egan Bernal at 9/4 on Betfair

Match Bets: 

Yates to beat Nibali, Bernal to beat Thomas and G Martin to beat Gaudu - 2pts at 2/1

G Martin to beat Gaudu - 3pts at 4/6 - Gaudu struggled today and was dropped early on the Iseran, I think he will be deflated and drained tomorrow after what happened Pinot and Martin seems to be going ok still.