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Published on Thursday, 25 July 2019 18:48

TDF 2019 Stage 19

St-Jean-de-Maurienne - Tignes

Friday 26th July, 123kms

The second last big stage, a stage that ends with a 7km uphill drag to Tignes, a town which was last visited in 2007 when one Michael Rasmussen took the stage and the Yellow jersey, not long before being booted out the race. 

It's a short stage at only 123kms, but it's a tough one, with the riders climbing almost non-stop for the first 85kms, including going over the Col de l'Iseran, a 32km long monster. It might average only 4.2%, but it gets pretty challenging towards the top, averaging 6.1% for the last 3kms, including a kilometre at over 10%. This should draw out the KOM hunters though, with two Cat 2s and a Cat 3 along the way too, that's 52pts if the break can make it to the top of the Iseran before the pack come after them. 

BUT - there are 8 bonus seconds at the top of the Iseran.. with the race being so tight, it's very likely we'll see the GC men look to pull back the break in time for someone like Pinot or Bernal to sprint out to take the bonus seconds. 8 seconds there, maybe more at the finish, it could make all the difference come Paris on Sunday. 

Stage 18 Review

We had a big battle once again to get in the break, with a bunch of 34 eventually getting away. It was a strong group too, with our boy Adam Yates making it, along with two team-mates who helped power the lead to almost 8 minutes by the time they started the Izoard.

The break also contained Romain Bardet and Tim Wellens who fought out the KOM points on the Col de Vars, Michael Woods and Nairo Quintana and a bunch of workers, rouleurs and team-mates for GC men. They worked well together though and at the top of the Izoard they still held a lead of nearly 8 minutes. The break had thinned down considerably though but Romain Bardet was still there and took the 40 points at the top..

There was a significant incident though for George Bennett, when he came down in a crash with Nico Roche on the descent towards the Izoard, he looked dazed getting back on the bike, but continued and eventually got back on.

Movistar came to the front on the Izoard and started to shred what was left of the peloton, and most of Ineos were dropped, with Bernal beside Thomas, but Poels dangling at the back. But the pace had basically shed almost all support riders, with Gaudu and Bennett falling away too soon after.

Up front, Adam Yates surprisingly cracked, after looking so good all day, he had been 6/4 favourite for the stage only minutes beforehand. The break thinned out further, Lutsenko kept attacking, but suddenly Nairo Quintana took off and no one could go with him.

But our kid Bardet kept going and took 2^nd on the Galibier to take the KOM jersey off of Wellens and is now just 4/9 favourite for the jersey. If you backed him at 66/1 (or even 33/1 about a week ago like I did again), then trade out at 1.5 or so on Betfair to guarantee yourself a return. I have all my stake back and 5pts profit regardless now with a big payday should he hold on to it.

The GC battle kicked off though about 3kms from the top of the Galibier when Bernal made a small attack, got a small gap but no one really reacted and Mas tried to just ride tempo.. then Bernal really went for it and before we knew it he had 30”. Who was it that came after him, only his team-mate Thomas.. but he was pulled back by Pinot and Kruijswijk. Alaphilppe finally cracked and was 13” off the leaders going over the top and it looked like his Tour was finally starting to crumble.

But he showed his fighting spirit once again to chase the leaders down, and not only that but to go straight through them and go on the attack.. He might pay for that tomorrow, but it was great racing. In the end, Bernal took 32” and moved above Thomas in to 2^nd and is now the 6/4 favourite to take the race, with Pinot at 3/1 and Thomas at 13/4. Alaphilippe still has about as much chance of winning it as Thomas though according to the prices, he’s 15/4.

The Route

A short stage at just 123kms, they skirt around the southern parts of the Alps, not far from the Italian border. The first 10kms are flat, but that's about it they start climbing then and don't stop until they reach the top of the Iseran, some 78.5kms later! Along the way as they head east they pass over two Cat 3 climbs and a Cat 2, including the Col de la Madeleine. The Col de L'Iseran itself is 12.9kms at 7.5%, with some parts around 9-10%. At 2,770m, the Iseran is the Souvenir Henri Desgranges for the highest point in the race, a prize many will be looking to try to win. 

The descent from the top through Val d'Isere is a long and winding one, 27kms long, and as they pass through Tignes Les Brevieres with 10kms to go they start climbing again. The Cat 1 Montee des Tignes is 7.4kms at 7% and it's pretty steady all the way up, but then the last 2kms are flat if it comes down to a sprint finish amongst the GC men.

Contenders and Favourites

So we’ve had one day in the big Alps, and Alaphilippe is still in the leader’s jersey.. he’s proving a very tough nut to crack. But, that’s his rivals fault, why did they wait so long to attack him? They attacked so late in the stage that he was only 13” down at the top and he easily caught them on the descent. At least Bernal tried, and Thomas tried, the rest seemed unable to. Thibaut Pinot seemed to be puffing and panting a long way from the top of the Galibier and he didn’t have the spark we’ve seen from him in recent days.

At least he had the legs to close down Thomas, who continued to push hard even when he was reeled in. He was probably trying to put as much time as they could in to Alaphilippe, but at the same time he was also limiting the time gains that Bernal was making on him. He said after that he wanted someone else to pick up the pace, but no one did, so he attacked to test them, that he had good legs and he wanted to try something.

Where does that leave us for tomorrow’s stage then? Well, it’s a similar sort of stage in that there’s a big climb in the middle of the stage, but it’s a very different kind of stage in that it’s a summit finish (or as good as, the last 1500m are flat). Alap’s rivals will have to attack him hard now, but to me it looks like Bernal is the only one who looks like putting serious time in to him, and the others.

Thomas doesn’t seem to have the kick to get away, he was caught pretty quickly today. But he keeps saying he has good legs, and he has been handicapped a little in his attacks by the fact that Bernal has been up the road twice. I think Thomas needs to bury a few rivals tomorrow by attacking on the Iseran and take only a handful of rivals with him.. He needs to attack hard on the 9.3% section 6kms from the top and really hammer it. Bernal will be with him, maybe Pinot, SK, Landa, Buchmann and Porte – they need to have shaken off Alaphilippe. If they can crack him in the last 6kms here he could lose 3 mins or more by the finish.

If they see that the others are struggling and G doesn’t have the legs, then Bernal should go next – the Iseran is tailor-made for him, a very long climb that climbs to the highest altitude in the race.. he needs to try and see what happens. There are 8 bonus seconds on the top after all, it's worth going for it. 8" there, 10" at the finish and a minute on Alaphilippe and he's only seconds behind with Val Thorens to come. 

Then it’s a fast 36km descent and on to the final climb to Tignes. If it’s still together, Bernal should then attack 6kms from the top of the climb and really go for it – he could ride in to the yellow jersey tomorrow and seal the race. Ineos can then ride defensively on the final stage, with Bernal aided by Thomas fighting back all attacks.  

So that’s how it could go.. but also, Thomas could attack on the Montee, and Bernal mark.. Pinot, SK and Alap will have to chase to protect their GC positions, they can’t let Thomas get too far ahead. This could be on the bottom steep part, then if they reel him in on that easier middle section, Bernal could attack with 3kms to go to the top of the climb and take out another 30” or more.

Thibaut Pinot seemed to struggle in the heat today, but the temperatures seem to be a lot more to his liking tomorrow, a max of 23 degrees around Val d’Isere and 17 in Tignes, with rain forecast all afternoon. He looked a shadow of his swashbuckling self today, hopefully he’ll get his mojo back tomorrow. He might well have been just managing his resources today, he was struggling as we saw, but he did make one strong surge to close Thomas down.

I think he’s playing the long game and is waiting for the next two stages, but he’s running out of time. He’s 1’50” down on Alap now and 20” down on Bernal, it’ll be hard to make that back with the form Bernal is in. This stage should suit him a lot better though, it’s shorter and the final climb has a gradient he likes, plus, if it comes to a GC mens sprint, he’ll probably win.

Simon Yates has been made 4/1 joint favourite with Bernal though, and that’s probably because he basically had a day off today as Adam went off in search of glory. In hindsight, maybe Simon should have gone today, he may have been able to stay with Quintana, but maybe he wouldn’t have been able to, and was right to save his legs.

He could well get in the break again tomorrow now that he’s had a day off, and the break’s chances all depends on how hard the Iseran is raced by the GC men.. And I think Ineos, Movistar and Groupama will look to blow it up tomorrow on the Iseran. The length, the altitude, the gradient, there could be a furious pace up here to try to shed Alap, and others.

If that’s the case, then the break might not make it. It’s a short stage, the pace will be high from the start as they are going uphill more or less from the start, and they will really ramp it up on the Iseran. I think they might not get more than about 3-4 minutes by the time they start the Iseran and could be close to being reeled in near the top, and definitely in the lower slopes of the Montee.

So for that reason, I’m leaving Simon and the breakers tomorrow. I think Bardet will try to go in the break again though, he can pick up point at the Cat 2 and 3s and could even make it to the Iseran to take the HC’s 40 points and the Souvenir Henri Desgrange. That should see him to KOM success and a nice prize at the top to boot as well.. turns a disappointing Tour in to one to remember.

What about the other GC men? Well Steven Kruijswijk has been very patient.. Dutch journos, former pros, experts have been saying he’s been playing a great stealth game and that the Iseran and Val Thorens is where he will make his move.. well, he’s been knocked off a podium spot by Bernal now, if he wants to finish on the podium he will have to help to try to drop Alap and try to make it a battle between him and the Ineos boys.

He is just 12” off of Thomas and 17” from Bernal, so anything is possible yet and he needs to believe he can do it - those 8" at the top of the Iseran can bring him closer. But he hasn’t shown the ambition or ability to do anything yet, he has followed rather than attacked. And for once, his team looked under pressure today, with George Bennett injured and worn out from his crash and chase back, and De Plus pulling over sooner maybe than he would have liked.

Bennett didn’t go to hospital at the end of the stage, but apparently was overheard saying ‘it doesn’t look good’ as he headed to his hotel. Those two guys need to be at the top of their game tomorrow for SK though in order to try to get rid of Alaphilippe, and maybe even Thomas.

Mikel Landa was looking like he meant business today when Movistar went to the front on the Izoard and started to shred the Peloton, but in the end there was nothing out of him. Yes, he had Nairo going for the stage win ahead and a summit finish would have suited him a lot better, but he was only able to follow wheels when Bernal and Thomas attacked, you’d have thought he’d have been one of the first on their wheels.

Quintana had his fun today though and it might be that he settles back in to team duties tomorrow and works for a Landa attack on the Iseran – this could be another ally for the ‘drop Alaphilppe’ brigade, if Movistar do what they did today again, we could see Alap in trouble.

Landa is a likely candidate for an Iseran attack, with maybe a team-mate or two up the road to help him in the section from Val d’Isere until the final climb. Movistar will be buzzing after that today, Quintana has moved up 5 places to 7^th, and has even moved above Landa – but both of them are so far back it’s unlikely they can challenge for GC. The team competition is wrapped up, so why not go hunting for more stages.

Emanuel Buchmann, Richie Porte and Rigo Uran were just only able to follow today, with Porte and Uran struggling at times, I can’t see either of them improving much tomorrow.. Although…. I saw one of the EF riders (can’t remember now which one) say before today’s stage that today was just about hanging in there for Uran and that he was going to try to do something in the next two stages…

Warren Barguil, Guillaume Martin, Alejandro Valverde and Fabio Aru are a level below and Dan Martin continues to have a horror Tour, getting dropped a long way from home and losing 28 minutes.

So that’s it, another cracker in store, we could see some real action on the Iseran again, but I think tomorrow we see Ineos come out to play and Bernal take the stage on his way to taking the yellow off of Alaphilippe. Viva Colombia.   

Recommendations:

2pts win on Egan Bernal at 9/2 with Bet365

1pt on Mikel Landa at 8/1 with Bet365

Match Bets 

Bernal to beat Thomas and G Martin to beat Aru - 2pts at 5/4

S Yates to beat Haig and Bardet to beat Caruso - 2pts at evens