- Details
- Published on Sunday, 21 July 2019 16:32
TDF 2018 Stage 16
Nîmes - Nîmes
Tues 23rd July, 177kms
A loop around Nimes that shoud end in a bunch sprint, as it did in 2014..It's a chance for the GC men to have a semi-day off as they edge closer to the challenges to come in the Alps and the sprinters to have a brief respite from the mountains.
I say it ended in a bunch sprint in 2014, but who can forget the heroic effort and heart-breaking finish? Jack Bauer and Martin Elmiger went off the front after just 5kms or so and rode almost 220kms at the front on their own. As they approached the last kilometre they still had a gap, but in an agonisingly brutal finish to the stage they were swallowed in the dying metres, with Alexander Kristoff beating Heinrich Haussler and Peter Sagan. Bauer finished 10th, he was that close to hanging on, and collapsed in a teary heap after the line.
Stage 15 Review
Wow! What a stage today. A huge battle to get in the breakaway, it took over 50kms before the break finally went, and what a break it was with Nibali, Simon Yates, Dan Martin, Bardet, Amador, Soler, Quintana, Mollema, and a whole load of other decent guys - including Herrada and Geschke for us. I hope the rest of you were able to get on Yates when the break went like I said to, I got 10.5 and 11 on Betfair as the break went and we had the unbelieveable scenario hitting the final climb with our 300/1 man Geschke beside our other man Yates, with over a minute lead.
Unfortunately for the each-way at 300/1, Geschke cracked with about 8kms to go, but Yates kicked on to victory. Behind, it was all kicking off. Landa had jumped and was helped get across to the chasers by Amador and Soler, then Pinot attacked with Bernal and Buchmann on his wheel and Alaphilippe finally cracked when trying to chase. Thomas and Kruijswijk had also been dropped by Pinot's acceleration, but ground their way back up to Alaphilippe, and when Thomas and Kruijswijk attacked again with about 3kms to go, Alap was gone.
In the end, Pinot took 1'16" out of Alaphilippe and took bonus seconds for 2nd place too, with Landa in 3rd. Buchmann and Bernal were just 17" behind, with Thomas and Kruijswijk just 31" after them. It means that Alaphilippe's lead to Thomas has been cut to 1'35", then it's 12" more to SK, with Pinot now creeping right in to it and looks the biggest danger to them all - he has in fact been cut to 6/4 favourite now, with Alaphilippe out to 5/1, with Thomas in between at 7/2.
We also had a bit of excitement with Bardet looking like he is interested in the KOM prize now, jumping out to take 18 points today, and is in to 11/2 to take the jersey, but also, our bet last night on Pinot at 6/1 is looking good, he's in to 6/4 favourite for the jersey now too after jumping up to 2nd place, just 14pts behind a fading Wellens.
The Route
A start and finish in basically the same place, a 177km loop north of the city that takes in an easy Cat 4 after 96kms and a more or less flat last 80kms before a likely sprint finish in Nimes. There is one little lump to get over with 18kms to go, it looks to be about 4% average for 3kms, it could see some sprinters struggle, then there's a 6km descent followed by a flat final 5kms so it is likely to finish in a bunch gallop.
There's a sharp right turn with 3kms to go, then a roundabout with 2.5kms to go, 1.7kms to go, and bizarrely with 200m to go, but the road is pretty wide so it shouldn't cause too much trouble. (below)
Route Map
Profile
Last Kms
Contenders and Favourites
Another sprint, will we have the same three guys involved again? It's very likely, the three that filled the podium in the last sprint are by far and away the best sprinters here. Peter Sagan and Alexander Kristoff are just on the periphery, they just don't have the speed to beat the top three, and Michael Matthews has decided he doesn't want to sprint any more so that he can get in a break that will never happen. Sonny Colbrelli and Giacomo Nizzolo are 5th to 9th placed guys every stage and in the last sprint we had Jens Debuscherre make an appearance for Katusha and Jasper Philipsen actually outsprint Kristoff.
So who wins this time? Well, Viviani is still searching for his second win, he was frustrated and shocked by Wout Van Aert, he sprinted with a flat tire in stage 7 and just wasn't good enough to beat the top two in stage 12. His leadout in 12 was pretty poor though, and if anything, now with Alaphilippe continuing to put big efforts in to retain the lead, and the rest of the team working for him or just to drag Viviani over the mountains, I don't think their leadout will be any better this time. They put a lot of effort in to trying to control the race early on today, with even Viviani having to put in a big shift pulling on the mountains. They could be very tired tomorrow.
Ok, Asgreen is clearly after recovering from his early crash and he will be added firepower, but I think Viviani might struggle to get the leadout he wants and might end up having to hitch a ride off of someone else, and that hasn't been working out so well for him of late.
Dylan Groenewegen has suffered like a dog to get over the mountains and he has lost a key part of his leadout in Wout Van Aert. The team also should now be focused almost 100% on Steven Kruijswijk as he has a big chance of a podium and possibly even the overall win. That might just leave Mike Teunissen, Tony Martin and Armund Jansen as leadout for him, but Martin has been saying he was very tired (hence his go-slow in the TT) and Jansen has been really struggling down the back of the peloton in recent stages. Teunissen is a good man to have on leadout, but they haven't exactly worked great together in some stages.
On the contrary, Caleb Ewan will have the whole team at his disposal more or less, as their focus is all on stage wins. Ok, Wellens is still going to be trying to win the KOM jersey, but he can put that aside to work for a few kilometres at the end of this stage. He'll have Jens Keukeleire (who even knew he was in this race?!), Thomas de Gendt, Tiesj Benoot, Maxime Monfort (who even knew he was in this race either?!), and his main men Roger Kluge and Jasper de Buyst to give him a leadout royale coming through those roundabouts in the last 3kms. And with the monkey off his back, I expect Ewan to finish the job and land him and us a second stage win.
Groenewegen and Viviani should fight it out for 2nd, keep an eye out for the Betway specials, I got 5/1 on they all finishing in the first 3 about 5 minutes before the start of stage 12, that's a bet worth taking again I think if they put it up.
Update - 22/7, 14:45: Betway have added their 'Betyourway' bets and they have the three sprinters to finish in the top 3 at 5/1 again. I'm having a point on that, plus 2pts on Ewan and Groenewegen to finish in the top 3 at 7/4.
Recommendations:
2pts win on Caleb Ewan at 3/1 with Betway
2pts on Ewan and Groenewegen to finish in the first 3 at 7/4
1pt on Ewan, Groenewegen and Viviani to finish in the first 3 at 5/1
Match-Bets
Pasqualon to beat Naesen and Viviani to beat Sagan - 2pts at 1.29/1 with 365
Greipel to beat Boassen Hagen - 1pt at 5/4