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- Published on Friday, 19 July 2019 20:12
TDF 2019 Stage 14
Tarbes - Tourmalet Barèges
Sat 20th July, 117kms
A short stage at just 117kms, but this is no easy day in the saddle - the first summit finish of the Tour, and a notorious finish at that. 2,115m high, 19kms at 7.4%, the Tourmalet is one of the toughest climbs in France.
Despite it being a pretty regular feature in the Tour, it has only been a summit finish twice before in the past. The last time they finished on the Tourmalet was back in 2010 when Andy Schleck finished just ahead of yellow jersey wearer Alberto Contador.
Along the way they also crest the Col du Soulor, a tough climb in itself, which tops out after 60kms but the Tourmalet is where the stage will be won and lost, with the 10.5% slope for the last kilometre possibly where the winner will make his move. It's also this year's Souvenir Jacques Godet, a prize awarded on a selected climb in the Tour, not to be mistaken with the Souvenir Henri Desgrange which is awarded on the highest point climb of the race, this year it's the Col de L'Iseran which is on stage 19.
Stage 13 Review
What an incredible day. I don't think anyone saw that coming - Julian Alaphilippe produced one of the most sensational time trial performances in many a year as he demolished the field to extend his lead at the top of the GC. Predictions were that he would lose 30-40" but hold on to yellow, but instead he actually extended his lead to 1'26" over Thomas and 2'12" to Kruijswijk.
Thomas de Gendt looked like the winner for a long time, making those who were on him at 400/1 very excited indeed, in the end he finished just 0.3 seconds ahead of Rigo Uran who pulled off a sensational ride of his own. Steven Kruijwijk did his top 3 chances a power of good with an excellent ride, he was leading at some of the time checks before the final two came through. It was also a good day for Pinot, Porte and Mas, but a terrible day for Yates, Martin and Bardet. Bardet really needs to forget the GC now and go KOM hunting!
It was a disastrous day though for Wout Van Aert, who crashed in to barriers when looking like he was about to take the best time, he was taken away in an ambulance and out of the race. He wouldn't have won anyway it is now clear, such was the performances of Thomas and Alaphilippe.
It was also a poor day for Egan Bernal, he lost 1'36" to Alaphilippe and 1'22" to Thomas and now sits in 5th, almost 3 minutes down on GC. He also lost his white jersey to Mas, he is 8" behind him. It was also a bad day for Max Schachmann who also crashed, damaging his knee, we might not see him tomorrow either. Main bets went down the pan, Haga was looking good for a while, but when Asgreen beat him we realised it wasn't really a great average speed. The Haga double won though at least to pull back the 3pts lost on WVA. And I just realised tonight that the 'Alap to win two stages or more' has landed, a couple of points in the bag there at least.
The Route
After flirting with the fringes of the Pyrenées for a few days, the race heads in to the mountains proper finally today. The opening 25kms is pretty flat though as they head west, but still take in the Cat 4 Cote de Labatmale, but it's nothing really, just 1.4kms at 6.7%, but coming just 16kms in to the stage we should see the break form here.
They then turn left and head straight for the Pyrenées, and 48kms in they start on the Col Du Soulor, a tough climb that averages 7.8% for almost 12kms. A 20km descent takes them back down the valley to Argeles-Gasozt, on to the intermediate sprint after 86kms, and they are already climbing the lower slopes of the Tourmalet.
The Tourmalet categorised climb itself is 19kms at 7.4%, and it's pretty steady and even for 16kms of it, mostly just above 7% average. With 3kms to go though it gets a bit steeper, with a kilometre at 10.9%, then 1km at 7.2% and the final kilometre averages 9.8% again. It's a hard end to a hard, albeit short day in the saddle, but it should start to separate the men from the boys a little bit more.
Route Map
Profile
Tourmalet
Last Kms Map
Contenders and Favourites
This is going to be a cracker - lots of riders have to attack, lots of guys have lots of time to make up, it's almost looking all over for some before they even start the third week. Interestingly, Betway had priced up this stage since Wednesday afternoon, giving us an early look at how they saw it going, but they were rapidly changing their prices this evening after seeing what happened today
They made Thibaut Pinot the 11/2 co-favourite for it, and you can understand why - bar the wind catastophe on Stage 10 on Monday, he was emerging as the biggest danger to Ineos following his superb attack with Alap on stage 8 where he gained 26" on his GC rivals.
He fairly flew up that last section of La Planche after he too was caught a bit off guard by Alaphilippe's stunning attack. But he dug in and finished really strongly, even passing Alap on the line to take the bonus seconds off of him. He was furious after losing the time on Monday, calling it a 'shit day' and will be desperate to try to claw back some time as soon as possible. He actually did a really good TT today though to keep himself in the game, he showed the legs are still really, really good, and I expect him to be going all out for it tomorrow.
He did well on that Queen stage of the Dauphiné to Pipay, a similar climb to the Tourmalet, 20kms at 6.5% - he finished 4th that day with Dan Martin and Adam Yates, just 10" behind Poels, but 36" ahead of Quintana and Porte, outsprinting Martin in the finish. He also won the stage to Mont Faron (5.7kms at 8.4%) in the Tour de l'Ain in February, kicking away from Romain Bardet and Hugh Carthy.
He also famously won on the stage of the Vuelta last year to Andorra Naturlandia, which was 17kms at 6.5%, almost the exact same sort of Profile as the Tourmalet. That day he attacked with some 11kms to go with Quintana and Kruijswik, Simon Yates bridged in the red jersey, Quintana cracked with 8.5kms still to go, Kruijswijk cracked with 1.1kms to go and Pinot jumped away from Yates to win the stage brilliantly.
So - four paragraphs already just about Pinot - I think there is no doubt he has a good chance of winning it, but how will he win it? I think it will be a GC day, I think the break will be caught half way up the Tourmalet and the GC men will fight it out.. There might only be 20 guys or less left as they enter the last 10kms. But will he go that early like he did in the Vuelta?
He might want to/thinks he needs to, to take back as much time as possible, but really he needs to be patient and chip away. If he takes something like 20" and the 10" bonus he has taken back almost half of what he lost in the winds. Around 7kms to go might be a good point where it gets a bit steeper, up around the 8.4% mark, but he'll need to build a gap quickly as Ineos will come after him when it eases a little a few kilometres later. It might be that waiting until the steep 10% sections with 3kms to go might be the best strategy, a strong attack there could still yield 20-30" by the finish.
Of course Geraint Thomas is going to be a huge danger and that's why he was another of the co-favourites at 11/2, and in fact following his ride today Betway chopped him to 3/1 favourite. He probably thought that he'd be riding in to the yellow jersey pretty soon, and might have been a bit defensive tomorrow, but that plan might have to change now that Alaphilippe is starting to become a real threat and holds a healthy lead over him.
He might though still play the defensive role, playing the long game, thinking Alap will crack in one of the big mountain stages. He has a nice cushion over all his other rivals and he can mark and track the attacks. Not only that, but he'll have Poels, Rowe, Kwiat and Bernal working for him, chasing everything down, or setting a blistering pace to deter other attacks. And then he can pounce late on, like he did last year on a few occassions, waiting until everyone had punched themselves out and then go for the jugular.
He was very impressive on La Planche, but that was a short, sharp climb.. How will he fare on something completely different, like the Tourmalet? He hasn't really been tested so far this year on a long, hard climb, and it will be made all the harder by the potential wave after wave of attacks he'll have to fight off. He did look strong today though, but I think he'd have thought he'd have got closer than 14" to Alaphilippe.
It might be that Poels will be shed some 3 or 4 kilometres from the finish, but will Egan Bernal work for him, or will he be riding his own race and pushing on? He is the 7/1 4th favourite, and you'd have to think that if he was let ride his own race, or indeed if he was to ignore orders and do his own thing then he could well take this stage. You could see him dancing through those bends with 3kms to go. He also knows now he has a battle on his hands for white, with Enric Mas currently wearing the jersey, so will be having his own battle with him.
Mikel Landa was the third of the co-favourites at 11/2, another silly short price, but they have now pushed him out to twice that price since they chopped Thomas to 3s. He too should love this climb - we might even see him attacking on the Soulor, building a nice lead, catching the break (which might have Soler or Erviti or someone else from the team in it), working with the break for a while before attacking away again with 7 or 8kms or so to go.
Movistar's director was interviewed in the car by Flecha on Thursday and he said that Landa will have the freedom to attack and go for stages in the race, this looks like one well suited to his abilities. He was given the opportunity to attack on stage 13 of the Giro which finished on a similar climb to this on Lago Serru and closed down the gap on Zakarin and Nieve, but they had too much of a lead. He did pull out 18" on his team-mate Carapaz, but 1'37" on Nibali and Roglic, he was very strong in the closing kilometres.
It all depends I guess on how Nairo Quintana is feeling - he was looking really good up until earlier this week but he's got caught out in a few splits and crashes which have cost him unnecessary stress and aggravation, and his TT today was really poor - he now sits almost 4 minutes down on Alap. He is another though who should love this climb and could well attack from a long way out too. But we rarely see a Quintana attack work to good effect in the last few years, he just doesn't have the punch and acceleration (or ambition it seems) he used to have.
He was fancied by a lot of commentators and experts on the Tour, but he now has to pull his finger out and attack, and soon. All too often in the past Movistar left their moves too late in a race, but they struck early and hard in the Giro with Carapaz on stage 13 coming after Landa and gapping his rivals, maybe they are learning to be a bit more aggressive.. Will Nairo be able to oblige? I'd love to see him dancing away from them all and putting Ineos under pressure, we might even see Bernal being forced to go after him, but it's hard to see it based on his performances in the last few years when it mattered most.
Adam Yates has been pushed out from 14/1 to 22/1 now after his disastrous TT today, he has gone from a genuine podium hope to being almost 4 minutes down in one day. He needs to get aggressive now though and he too won't be far off on this climb, if he can hang in there with the front group to the last kilometre I think he has the ability to kick away from them on the steep 9.8% run to the line. The mood in the team would have been buzzing after Simon's (and Impey's) win and the brothers often bounce back in the face of adversity, so we could see Adam fight back tomorrow, and 22/1 is too big to ignore.
Could it also be the day we see Jakob Fuglsang start to fight back? He was very good earlier in the season, and was superb in the Dauphine, finishing a very good 2nd on Pipay. He was also very strong in the Tirreno stage to Recanati, which, although a lot shorter, the finish was a similar gradient. He finds himself outside the top 10 now, four and a half minutes down, he needs to start making up time fast. He looked very tired at the finish to me today though.
Rigo Uran pulled off a sensational TT today, I didn't see that coming, he finished 0.32 seconds behind De Gendt and only 22" behind Thomas, I think he'd have taken that at the start of the day. He's missed most of the season because of injury, maybe he's fresher than a lot of the guys here? He will be right there in the mix you'd think in the last few kilometres, but it might be a bit hard for him to win, or even beat some of his key rivals here, his uphill sprint isn't the best.
Dan Martin will also be disappointed with his ride today, I think he'd have hoped to stay a lot closer than the minute and a half he lost to the likes of Pinot. He has now slipped down to 11th and is 4'15" off the lead, and has a real battle on his hands now to get back in to the top 10. He might though get a little bit of leeway if he attacks in the last 5kms, Movistar and Ineos might look at each other a little and he might be gone. He suffered in the heat today though and it's going to be warm again tomorrow, I might wait and see how he goes tomorrow before getting involved with him in the days to come.
Enric Mas will be watching and marking Bernal wherever he goes, but can he do anything himself? He finished a superb 9th in the TT today, he's clearly got good legs, but will he now be asked to try to help keep Alap in yellow? Or will they play two hands? Will Mas go up the road while Thomas and Ineos keep an eye on Alaphilippe? Or vice-versa, will Alaphilippe attack and force Ineos and the rest to waste energy chasing him down?
Steven Kruijswijk was superb today, but what does he do now? Does he try to just hold on to a podium position and play it conservatively for the next week, or does he go balls out and try to attack Thomas? Thomas can't chase everyone, but Kruijswijk's problem is he doesn't have great acceleration for an attack, he's more of a diesel engine. He might have to try to follow an early attack that gets a bit of an attack and use his power to help them to build a lead. It would be a good idea to keep an eye on Quintana and Martin though, they're the kind of guys who will try to go from far out.
There are others who will try to win it from far out, be it in the break or by attacking on the Soulor maybe and hoping to get a bit of a headstart. Ilnur Zakarin is one who springs to mind, he should like this climb and maybe after a tough opening week he's starting to find his legs - he finished just 6" slower than Bardet today, so he put a bit of an effort in it seems to maybe test the legs. I got him at 50/1 two days ago, he's still 40/1 with Bet365 though and that's worth a small interest.
Giuliio Ciccone, Warren Barguil and Thomas de Gendt might go KOM hunting, hoping maybe to at least make it over the Cat 1 Soulor to take the points there, and if the GC men do back off a little on the Tourmalet until the last few kilometres they could make it all the way.
But I think it will be a GC day, and I think it's a day we see the French carry on their strong run with another stage win - only this time it's Thibaut Pinot I fancy to finish off the stage after a strong ride at the front of the race. Adam Yates might not be far off either though. Let's just hope for some fireworks though, would be great to see all those guys who have lost time take the fight to Ineos and Alaphilippe. Will be interesting to see though if Alap can hold on in there on a climb over 2,000m and hold on to his yellow jersey though.
Recommendations:
1.5pts e/w on Thibaut Pinot at 6/1 with Ladbrokes
0.5pts e/w on Adam Yates at 22/1 with various
0.25pts e/w on Ilnur Zakarin at 40/1 with various
Matchbets
Uran to beat Buchmann - 3pts at 5/6
Martin to beat Bardet and Guillaume Martin to beat Kreuziger - 2pts at 5/4
Bennett to beat Aru and Pinot to beat Yates - 2pts at evens