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- Published on Wednesday, 17 July 2019 18:50
TDF 2019 Stage 12
Toulouse - Bagnères-de-Bigorre
Thurs 18th July, 202kms
A similar stage to the stage won in 2013 by Dan Martin, which also went over the Peyresourde and Hourquette d'Anzican before finishing with that fast desent down to Bagneres de Bigorre.
That day though they took in a further three big climbs, it's an easier-looking stage this time around, if you can call a stage with two Cat 1 climbs over 1,500m in quick succession easy..This time last year they were going up to Alpe d'Huez, that stage won brilliantly by Thomas from Dumoulin and Bardet. It's not quite in the same league as the difficulty as that stage, but the Peyresourde is to be respected/feared and the Hourquette is also quite tough, frequently up around 7-9%
Stage 11 Review
Another sprint, another photo finish with a Jumbo rider involved.. only this time it was the little pocket rocket who rewarded us for keeping the faith with him, winning the sprint brilliantly on the lunge. It was looking like another hard luck story for us when Jasper de Buyst ended up in a ditch with 10kms to go, forcing Ewan to a stop, but Roger Kluge dropped back for him, and somehow the little man made his way up to Groenewegen’s wheel in the closing 2kms.
Not only did he make his way up to his wheel, but he fought off all-comers who wanted to take his wheel and launched a blistering sprint with 100m to go, his low, aero sprinting position getting him there by the narrowest of margins this time.
Viviani was disappointing, the train looked good for a while, he was being escorted by Morkov and Richeze, but it fell apart too soon and he was left scrambling trying to close a gap to get on Ewan’s wheel. Groenwegen had a good leadout too, but Teunissen was forced to start his sprint too soon and Groene found himself not wanting to hit the front too soon, but in the end he had no option as he didn’t want to get swamped like Matthews in the last sprint. That’s the second day though he has been beaten as 7/4 favourite as we have yet another different sprint stage winner – 6 different winners in 6 sprint stages (7 if you count Sagan’s sprint win)
Ewan also beat Sagan and Pasqualon easily beat a tired Garcia Cortina to land the double, unfortunately Nizzolo was caught up in a crash and finished out of the frame. As for Matthews to beat Colbrelli – well I don’t think anyone saw that coming today, Sunweb’s decision to stop Matthews from going for Green Jersey points in order for Michael Matthews to be allowed go in breaks.
Instead they decided that he would lead out Cees Bol, who finished 8th, we’ll have to wait and see I guess as to whether that was a wise decision or not. It could even be that Matthews went mental with his team-mates after the last leadout disaster and threw a few insults around and refused to sprint again.. there might have been a ‘let’s see if Cees can do a better job then’ type of strop from him, I wouldn’t put it past him.
Sagan was just out of the picture again in 4th, he never looked comfortable to me in the last 2kms, he just didn’t have the speed again in the end either. Jens Debuscherre finally appeared in a sprint, Katusha knew he was on a good day the way they brought him up in the closing kilometers, Alex Dowsett taking a big turn. He finished a creditable 5th. Colbrelli was his usual 6th and Philipsen and Kristoff both sprinted to finish either side of Bol in 7th and 9th, with Warren Barguil sprinting to 10th place! Maybe Barguil was preparing for a possible sprint finish from the break tomorrow, getting in some extra practice..
The Route
Quite well-used roads for the Tour, heading south-west from Toulouse towards the Pyrenees. The first 130kms as they head south-west are almost totally flat, just little bumps along the way, yet they are climbing gently for 130kms, rising 500m in the process. Immediately after passing through the intermediate sprint after 130kms the road suddenly rises upwards for the Col de Petresourde (13.2kms at 7%), a long and steady climb which will be used to strip out the sprinters, stragglers and weaker domestiques ahead of the final climb.
A 22km descent to Gauchan and straight on to the final climb, the Hourquette d'Anzican. It's a very steady climb averaging 7.5% for 9.9kms, with a little patch between the 1st and 3rd kilometre that hits over 9%. Once over the top it's 30kms straight downhill, all the way to the finish in Bagneres de Bigorre. It's an extremely fast last 30kms, as we saw when Dan Martin and Jacob Fuglsang charged down it after escaping in that stage in 2013, they were going full gas, the peloton were going full gas, but couldn't catch them.
Map
Profile
Hourquette d'Anzican
Croix de Fer
Contenders and Favourites
When the race went over this final climb in 2013, a small break of 4 with Romain Bardet, Pierre Rolland (in polka dots), Simon Clarke and Bart de Clercq led in to the climb with a very small advantage of just 18". Pretty soon after the start of the climb, with just over 40kms to go, and the gap closing to just 10", Bardet attacked away, but was caught 2.5kms later by the Movistar-led peloton. They then rode a fast tempo for a few kilometres, but with 35.8kms to go they eased a little bit, Nairo came to the front to assess things and Dan Martin saw his opportunity to dive up the right-hand verge and attack, hard.
He got a gap of maybe 50m before Fuglsang reacted and came after him, while the GC men were willing to just wait and watch each other for now. Soon after that Nairo attacked the GC group with 34.4kms to go, but like a lot of his attacks in recent years it was a bit limp and Chris Froome easily chased him down. He went again just 300m later, and again it was Froome who caught him, sitting in the saddle, spinning like fury, Contador sitting on his wheel.
And Quintana attacked again, for a third time just 1km later, and again Froome was the one left to do the chasing, stringing out the group. When Martin and Fuglsang reached the top they had a 45" lead over the chasing group, who, once Quintana was done with attacking, had settled back in to a more steady pace again. The chase was disorganised on the descent though with no one really wanting to take responsibility to try to catch the front two, and with 1.5kms to go they held a 31" lead and they knew they had it between them.
Dan easily won the sprint in the end, him diving to the front coming through that left-hander with just under 200m to go definitely helped him win, he got the jump on Fuglsang through the final bend and he couldn't come back at him. The peloton was led home 20" later by Kwiatko riding for Omega Pharma QS, with Woet Poels, Bauke Mollema and Alejandro Valverde all in the GC group with Froome.
So what can we take from that stage? Well, firstly, it was a very different stage in terms of what had gone before - there were a lot more climbs and the GC men had ridden them hard, closing down the gap to Bardet and co and also getting rid of a lot of support riders before the Hourquette. This time, they have had a flat run in to the Peyresourde, so there will be a lot of guys still involved. Obviously that will soon strip out a lot of the weaker riders, especially as Ineos, Movistar or Astana will probably start to put heavy pressure on from the 4km mark onwards where it starts to get steeper.
But I think there will be a lot more, maybe 40 riders or so, hit the Hourquette this time, so the likes of Kruijswijk and Yates should still have two or three riders around them. But it shouldn't be long before we see Movistar and Ineos start to drill it again, if Quintana is feeling good and fancies a few digs again this time then he will get the team to hammer it for a while on the harder parts near the bottom.
Also, it showed that if you can get over the top with a 30" lead then you could make it all the way. And it also showed that you need to know about that last bend and get through it first, unless you have a good sprint on you.
But that's how it could go from the GC point of view - only I don't think the GC men will be fighting it out for the stage win, but instead will be watching each other with a view to marking each other out and saving the legs until the TT and the Tourmalet which come in the next two days. There probably isn't much time to be gained by going balls out on the Hourquette, only a lot of energy wasted..
So to break candidates.. and there could be LOTS! Lots of guys will have their eyes on this one, a day after another semi-rest day and before the TT, they will be putting all their eggs in this basket possibly, knowing that the Tourmalet is also probably going to be a GC battle ground.
Who can go in the break then, and hold on over the two climbs in the last 80kms? Well, you need to be strong to get up the road in the break in the first place, and contribute enough to the break to help it build up a decent 8 or 9 minute lead. Then you need to be able to climb, and possibly descend well, maybe even sprint if necessary if it’s a small group comes to the finish together.
One rider that springs to mind immediately for a stage profile like this is Vincenzo Nibali – Nibali said that he was coming in to this race only looking to go for stages, maybe the KOM, but not GC. Some didn’t believe him, but he has been poor so far in this race, getting dropped regularly on the hills, and as a result now sits 14 minutes down on GC, giving him the freedom to go on the attack on a stage like this.
He certainly fits the bill if we see the Nibali we saw in the Giro, and the Nibali we normally see smashing it up the mountains, but he hasn’t shown anything of the sort so far in this Tour. Of course it could all have been part of the bigger plan, where he saved his legs, lost time and then targeted specific stages, maybe this one to start with.
The profile suits him, he may well get someone like Tratnik, Mohoric or Teuns to go in the break with him so he can hold back a little on effort, and then attack on the final climb or on the descent down to the finish, being one of the best descenders in the peloton. 18/1 is very skinny, but he's been hurt by the criticism from the Italians for his approach to the race so far, what better way to answer them than to get in the break and take the first big mountain stage!
Marc Soler is another who could be allowed go up the road for Movistar, they were happy for him to go in the break on stage 9, when he made that massive effort to bridge to the break on his own, he showed how good his legs were by pulling back a gap of almost 90” on the climb of the Mur d’Aurec. He just couldn’t stay with the final attacks, his earlier effort to bridge taking its toll on his legs, but he did manage to finish 7th, just 21” down.
This is quite a similar stage to stage 16 last year, he got in that massive break that Alaphilippe won from, he finished 9th that day. Movistar might give him the green light to go up the road again, at the worst, if the break looks like getting caught, he could help Quintana if he tries an attack. He opened 100/1, but that didn't last long, he's still worth backing at 50/1. You might get bigger if you shop around when they all go live.
Groupama might send Rudy Molard up the road too, he was in that big break on stage 16 last year too, finishing 14th. They might be thinking along the same lines with Pinot maybe needing someone to bridge to if he attacks, he's worth a nibble at 80/1. It could have been a day we see Warren Barguil go on the attack for KOM points, but as he’s just 3’26” down on the GC, I don’t think he’ll be allowed go. But if it does become a GC day, maybe that sprint practice he did today can pay off?! One to watch and maybe back in play if they look like catching the break.
Instead maybe Elie Gesbert or Anthony Delaplace might go instead, Gesbert has been riding well this season (5th on the Mont Ventoux Challenge), but hasn’t got going yet in this Tour. Pressure is on now for Arkea Samsic to show themselves. Delaplace was on the attack on stage 9 but didn’t have the legs to stay with the better climbers on the final climb.
Lotto Soudal are sure to try to get a number of guys in the break again, Thomas De Gendt will love this stage you’d think, but has he burnt his matches after that win on stage 8? If not, we should see him KOM hunting again and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him ride away from everyone on the Hourquette, it’s a power-climb, not a pure climbers’ climb.
Tiesj Benoot could also like this stage, he was very strong on stage 9, only to be outdone by the better sprint of Impey. I’m sure he’ll keep trying in this race until he can try no more.. And Tim Wellens could also go to try to keep hold of that polka-dot jersey, but he has been looking tired and I don't think he'll stay with the better climbers on the Hourquette, maybe even the Peyresourde. But at 16/1, 20/1 and 40/1 respectively, they're too short to me.
Nico Roche could also try again, he is in good shape and will probably get stronger as this race goes on, but so too could Wilko Kelderman, he has been very quiet in this race, has he been waiting for the mountains? He hasn’t had a great season this year, but there were some positive signs in Paris-Nice, and he had a storming Vuelta last year where he finished 10th overall on the GC. If he has been hiding away and targeting some mountain stages before another assault on the Vuelta, we might just see him take off one of these days in a break.
Mickael Cherel was due to be Romain Bardet’s ‘Shadow’ on this Tour, looking after him in his GC bid. So with Bardet already 3’20” down on GC, and most likely 5 minutes or more down after the TT, maybe they will free Cherel and let him go up the road? He’s a good climber but has never won a pro race at 33 years of age, that’s putting me off him. Alexis Vuillermoz could also have been an option, but he crashed hard on his hip a few days ago, it might take him a week or so to start to feel right.
With Uran quite possibly five minutes down after the TT is finished too, maybe EF will fire riders up the road again in an attempt to try to take a stage win? Michael Woods could be one to fit the bill, he crashed earlier in the race but looks to be ok now. He said after stage 9 that he was going to stick to Uran like “White on rice.. unless I have the opportunity to get into a break, I’m here to support Rigo”..
Well, this is a stage that could suit Woods, maybe they should let him go - but 14/1? Really? Simon Clarke thinks he would have done better on stage 9 but got caught out at the bottom of the final hill in a bad position and missed the split.. He said he felt he had the legs to get a better result. There could be a lot of fire in the bellys of the EF guys after their catastrophe on Monday, so I think they will be very active at the start of this stage trying to get in the break.
Could Daryl Impey hang in there again on the climbs and sprint to another stage win? It's possible, but only I think if he has joined a break with pretty poor climbers! He is good at the short, sharp efforts like he had to do on Sunday to bridge to Benoot and Roche, and Willunga Hill for example, 13kms at 7% is a different matter altogether. Maybe just to throw a little confusion grenade in to the race, M-S might send Simon Yates away in the break, to see whether the other teams will chase him down or not..
It could be under the guise of being there for an Adam attack later on, but if the peloton don't look like catching them inside the last 35kms, he could very well ride away to take the stage win.. We've not seen a great deal of him except going out the back door or dangling at the back though, the plan seems to be to save the legs for the final week to help Adam, they'll probably stick to that for now.
Will Astana now start sending riders up the road seeing as Fuglsang has lost so much time? Well, they have to do something if they want to try to win this race, or at least get some stage wins out of it to make a success of it. And they have plenty candidates who could go up the road and win on a stage like this. I think they, as a team were definitely looking after themselves like Mitchelton-Scott, getting ready for the tough final two weeks, but will they stick with the plan or go rogue?
That big break on stage 16 last year to Bagneres du Luchon also contained Gorka Izagirre, and he was best of the rest after Alaphilippe after a very solid ride. He's been hiding away so far, but has slipped down to 60th, more than 38 minutes down, he will be allowed go if he tries you'd think. And he could have a decent chance of victory too as he can climb well and if he gets a small gap going over the top of the climb he can TT to the finish.
But there's also Omar Fraile who would like a stage like this, he too has been pretty anonymous so far in the race and is sitting almost an hour down in the GC. So is it that he just doesn't have the legs, or is he biding his time and waiting for the mountains?
Same with Luis Leon Sanchez, he sits over 46 mins down - he was being dropped very early on in some stages, and finished 15 mins down with Fraile on LPDBF on stage 6. But we know what he is capable of, like Fraile, he was going well in the last month before the Tour, winning a stage in TDS and finishing 2nd to Valverde in the Spanish Nationals. And they also have Pelle Bilbao, Alexey Lutsenko and Magnus Cort who could go.
Others who could be interested? Ilnur Zakarin is another who has looked terrible up until now, being dropped on climbs faster than some of the sprinters, will he suddenly come good in the mountains? Simon Geschke has been saying he wants to get in breaks too, but this might be a bit too hard for him. Nils Politt, Oliver Naesen and Michael Schar have been very keen to get in breaks too, but I'm not sure they have the legs for this one.
The bookies have it priced up as a 50/50 basically between the break and the GC men fighting it out, with Alaphilippe and Pinot almost joint favourites.. but at 12/1 it shows they are not too convinced they will be fighting out the finish. Rui Costa is too short at 16/1, Giulio Ciccone crashed today and looked sore, he's too short at 18/1, and Mikel Landa might wait for the Tourmalet stage to go full beans.
It's another very hard one to call, but I'm favouring the break making it and have thrown a bunch of darts at riders of various prices below hoping we'll get some of them in the break.
Recommendations:
0.25pts e/w on Gorka Izagirre at 200/1 with 365
0.5pts win on Marc Soler at 50/1
1pt win on Vincenzo Nibali at 18/1 with 365
0.25pts e/w on Wilko Kelderman at 66/1 with Bet365
0.2pts e/w on Elie Gesbert at 100/1 with Betway
0.2pts e/w on Rudy Molard at 80/1 with Betway
Matchbets
Molard to beat Reichenbach - 2pts at 7/4 with 365