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Published on Saturday, 13 July 2019 19:04

TDF 2019 Stage 9

Saint-Étienne - Brioude

Sunday 14th July, 170kms 

A transition stage that winds its way west over a lot of lumps and bumps, a day that looks suitable for a breakaway success. The Cat 1 after 32kms should see a strong break go and we could see the peloton sit up and let them fight it out.

They head to Brioude, home town of Romain Bardet, but they haven't had a lot to cheer about so far in this Tour, Bardet struggling on the final climb to La Planche, even dropping his chain on the line to add to his frustration. He said that he had no explanation really for what happened, blaming a 'bad leg' but his morale was pretty low after the stage, as was the team's as they were really hoping for something good from him in this Tour. 

Stage 8 Review

There was a disappointing start to the stage, after all the talk, all the predictions that we would have a big break go and the break would contest the stage win there was almost no interest in getting in the break at all and only four riders got away. Two very strong riders in De Gendt and De Marchi, two passengers in Terpstra and King.Interviews before the stage - Van Avermaet - I'm up for it, the break should win today and I see this as a big chance of a win..

No effort whatsoever to get in the break. Jesus Herrada pushes his way to the front in the neutral zone, looking keen, no effort to go in the break. Total DE had four men in the first 20 of the bunch, including Calmejane - Terpstra is the one who goes, the one who is the worst in the hills. Dan Martin - the break will win today.. Charley Wegelius - the break will win..

In the end, they were right, as Thomas de Gendt did a Thomas de Gendt and held on to take yet another monumental breakaway win. Behind, things kicked off, with first Geraint Thomas crashing in to his team-mates and going down, breaking Moscon's bike in the process, then Alaphilippe attacked on the final climb, taking Thibaut Pinot with him and they held off the chase to take the next two places, moving Alaphilippe back in to the yellow jersey. 

Michael Matthews finally won a sprint, but it was just for 4th place, beating Sagan and Trentin, with our man Xandro Meurisse in 7th, a good ride from him, we definitely have to keep an eye on him. GVA was 8th ahead of Bernal and Thomas, Thomas rejoining the main group after a sterling effort by Castroviejo and Poels.. but it was a stress they could have done without.. 

The Route

Heading predominantly south-west all day, the stage starts with a downhill 6kms, then an uncategorised climb for almost 10kms. But suddenly they hit a Cat 1 climb after 32kms, the Mur d'Aurec Sur Loire... and you know that in France, any hill with 'Mur' in it is going to be a 'wall'.. This one is pretty short at just 3.2kms, but is steep an an average gradient of 11%, with parts hitting 15, 16 and even 19%. It's too far out in the stage to have a real impact on the outcome, but it will hurt.. 

After that it rolls along for almost 120kms, taking in a Cat 3 on the way, but the decider of the day could well be the Cote de Saint-Just, which they start with just 16.5kms to go. It's a pretty steady 3.6kms at 7.2%, with 500m at 9% in the middle and it easing back to around 5% for the last kilometre. Then it's downhill more or less all the way to the line, with the last 500m flattening out.  

Contenders and Favourites

This stage probably revolves around how much Bora and Sunweb want to bring back the break, and after seeing what happened today, can we trust the riders to make an effort to go in the break tomorrow either? I would like to stick with some of the guys I picked today though, especially Gougeard and Calmejane, I will be backing them I think until we get them in a break. 

But the bookies have priced it up like it should have finished today, had they not let the first three riders stay away - i.e. Sagan, Matthews, Trentin and Colbrelli fighting it out in a reduced bunch finish after another tough day in the saddle. It has somewhat a similar finish to today's stage with that punchy climb 13kms from the finish, and we are sure to see Alaphilippe have another go in an attempt to add to his lead in the yellow jersey and to give the French something more to cheer on Bastille day. 

Sagan has a favourites chance of course, but he was really struggling today at times, and it showed in his tired sprint at the end too, he never looked like coming level, let alone past Matthews. They will need to try to tire him out again, pushing hard on the climbs to see if they can shake him out, he came very close to being dropped today but fought his way back on. That Cat 3 Cote de Guillaumanches is listed as being 7.8kms, but it's more than 15kms long from the bottom and just over 60kms from the finish - they will need to go hard from the bottom to try to shake him out. 

Michael Matthews does seem to be getting better as the race goes on, as I thought he would, but is he ready to step up and take a stage win, or even a podium at just 6/1? Trentin has been riding well lately, he finished with the main group today in 6th (or 3rd in the sprint), whereas Sonny Colbrelli lost 17 minutes. At the prices, Trentin looks the best bet to me, if it comes to a sprint that we see Sagan, Trentin and Matthews fighting it out, he could well take a top 3 again and he's twice the price Matthews is. 

I want to have a small bet on Van Avermaet again though, he gave a long interview to Eurosport before the start of today's stage and said how much he loves racing around the Massif Central, how he's won two stages here (all of which I said yesterday), but he also said that the next three stages (8,9,10) were very important to him and he thinks he can take a stage win. He didn't attack today, he didn't go after Alaphilippe when he attacked, but he did get involved in the sprint and finished 8th. He's been backed in from 28s to 22s, but I want to have a small interest in case he goes and annoys me by winning tomorrow after backing him today. 

The French (and French teams) will want men in the break on Bastille day, so as well as Gougeard and Calmejane, I'm going to throw a few other darts.. Jesus Herrada for Cofidis - looked keen at the start, but didn't have the power on the flat to go on the attack, that opening climb after 6.5kms will suit him better. Elie Gesbert for Arkea Samsic - AS need to start showing themselves a little too and Gesbert is a good rider for a stage like this.. He recently finished 4th overall in the Tour de l'Ain, finishing 2nd behind Pinot on the Queen stage. 

Not a lot more to say really about this one, a break will go, but will it be a small, crappy one like today, or will Directeur Sportifs in every team bus be reading the riot act to their riders who shunned making an effort today? It's Bastille day, expect the French to be out in force, but if the break is reeled back expect another furious last 15kms as the attacks fly on the final climb, but there could be a regrouping on the way in to the finish and we could see a reduced sprint. So small bets, covering a few bases again. 

Recommendations: 

0.5pts e/w on Greg Van Avermaet at 22/1 with Bet365

0.5pts e/w on Matteo Trentin at 12/1 with Bet365

0.2pts win on Lilian Calmejane at 80/1 with Bet365

0.2pts win on Alexis Gougeard at 125/1 with Bet365

0.2pts win on Elie Gesbert at 250/1 with Bet365

Matchbets

To come