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Published on Thursday, 04 July 2019 11:23

TDF 2019 Stage 1

Brussells - Brussels

July 6th, 194.5km

The grand depart of the 2019 TDF starts in Belgium this year, with a 192km run around the Flemish hills, taking in the iconic Classics climbs of the Mur de Geraardsbergen and Bosberg before finishing in front of the royal palace. 

The start in Brussels is in homage to five-time winner Eddie Merckx, to honour the fifthieth anniversary of his first win in 1969. Merckx won an incredible 34 stages in winning his five Tour de France, but also won five Giro d'Italia too, taking 24 stages along the way there. Seven-time winner of Paris-Roubaix, five-time winner of LBL, the list goes on. The cannibal was truly special, back in his day. How would he fare in the modern peloton? Hard to say, but you'd think he'd be challenging the likes of Valverde, Sagan and Froome for honours in all sorts of races. 

The opening stage of a Grand Tour can be dangerous, with a full field of anxious, nervous riders and team managers, full of energy and wanting to be near the front at all times. This stage has little Belgian roads, cobbles, bergs and street furniture to contend with, hopefully there are no mass pileups or incidents that could take some riders out of it on the very first day. 

The Route

The stage starts in Bruxelles, and 192kms later it ends in Brussel.. taking in an anti-clockwise loop south along the route. They head west first in to Flanders, and take in the famous Flandrian climbs of the Bosberg and the Grammont, but seeing as they come within the first 47kms of the race, they are almost pointless from the outcome of this stage's point of view. 

They then head south-east for 50kms to Charleroi, go through a little sector of pavé after 118kms at Thiméon for 1900m and start to head north back towards Brussel, zig-zagging between a north-east and north-west direction along the way. I think the organisers have deliberately taken this zig-zag route hoping to see some cross-wind action and echelons along the way to spice up the first stage. 

As they turn left after Overijse they head north-west towards the finish and the last 15kms or so are more or less downhill down a gentle descent. It flattens out from 4kms to 2kms to go, then starts to rise at 1.2% gradient for 1km, flattens out for 500m after the flamme rouge before rising up the hill to the palace for the last 500m at a gradient of 5%.

There is a sharp right with about 4.2kms to go, then a sharp left and sharp right in the space of about 500m. One last left hander with 2kms to go as they head over the bridge and on to the finishing straight, and it's more or less straight for the last 2kms, curving to the right in the last 100m.  It's a tough little sprint finish which looks perfect for the likes of Groenewegen, Ewan, Viviani and Sagan. 

The weather looks perfect, 24 degrees, no rain and a light cross/headwind coming from the north-west, meaning it will be in their faces coming up the last kilometre. 

Contenders and Favourites

So the first stage and no prologue, opening TT or TTT to settle them in to the race, instead we'll have a nervous and difficult opening stage through the narrow roads and over the bergs and cobbles of Belgium, with an uphill sprint finish. I hope I'm wrong, but I can see some misfortune befalling a GC favourite, I wouldn't be surprised if it was Geraint Thomas, Ineos seem to be having a lot of bad luck at the moment, maybe it's karma for taking the cash from a business like Ineos.. And Thomas is very good at finding trouble, as we saw once again in the TDS. 

The bookies have opened with Dylan Groenewegen as their favourite, and if he wins he would take the first yellow jersey of the race, something that is sure to get the thousands of Dutch supporters who spilled over the border to come and watch very excited indeed. It took Groenewegen a while to get going last year, he didn't have a great start to the race at all, only finishing 6th on the opening sprint, where even Christophe Laporte beat him.

Then the next day was the chaotic, crazy finish when a mass pile-up saw only a handful of riders make it through to the sprint won by Sagan, and Groenewegen didn't get involved. He got a bit closer on stage 4, finishing 4th, but even Greipel beat him, stage 5 was too hard for him, but it finally clicked in to gear for him on stage 7.

And the important thing with respect to that stage and his chances here was the finish is very similar to this one, with a pull up to the line of around 4%. He powered up that hill and was extending away from Gaviria and Sagan as they hit the line. He said after that his legs weren't great at the start of the Tour, and that they had just got the timing wrong on stage 4, but that he felt really good that day. 

The question is I guess, will he suffer from the same poor legs at the start of this year's race, or will he hit the ground running this time? He didn't race much since winning the 3 days of Depanne on the 27th March, but he won the first three stages at the 4 days of Dunkirk and the first two road stages at the ZLM Tour a few weeks back, but only managed 3rd on the final stage behind Ewan and Walscheid. He'll have Wout Van Aert, Tony Martin and Mike Teunissen to lead him in to the bottom of the final hill, he'll then power his way to the finish up the hill. 

Who else is good at uphill sprint finishes? Well Caleb Ewan of course.. The pocket rocket is finally making his Grand Tour debut and he comes here on the back of two impressive stage wins at the Giro, as well as a 2nd, 3rd and two 4ths in just 11 stages. His first stage win was after a very lumpy day that took the sting out of his rivals legs and he always looked the strongest in the last 2kms. The second win was on a much flatter stage, but it too had a slight uphill finish. 

His leadout looked one of the best at the Giro, and he'll have some very strong guys to tow him in to position here, with De Gendt, Benoot, Keukeleire and Wellens there to look after him in the last 20kms and then Jasper de Buyst and Roger Kluge to drag him through the madness, they were excellent at leading him out in the Giro. The stage he won in the 2015 Vuelta also had a 4% rise to the line for the last kilometre and he bossed that ahead of Dege and Sagan. 

The stage he won in the UAE Tour was on the Hatta Dam, the two stages he won in Turkey were both on uphill finishes, with one being 2.7kms at 4.25%. This finish should hold no fears for him and he has to be one of the leading contenders for the stage, especially with a slight headwind finish. Lotto-Soudal have just committed to sponsoring the team for at least another two years this week, and it's a Belgian team, with Belgian sponsors racing in Brussels - they will be desperate to win for all their fans, sponsors and VIP guests they'll have at the race. 

And he sounds confident too - "I think it will be a stage that I can win and I know the team will really want to win the first stage. Hopefully I will start my Tour career with a highlight. The train is almost on point. I am confident and can't wait to get started. Groenewegen will be one of the favorites here and I was able to beat him in the ZLM Tour. I've already beaten Viviani in the Giro."

Elia Viviani also has to have a big chance here, he has the dream team back together with him after his disaster at the Giro, Morkov. Lampaert and Richeze will do a far better job than the shambles that we saw at times at the Giro, if Morkov takes his usual monster turn with 500m to go with Viviani on his wheel, there mightn't be many will be able to come around him. He will be desperate to start making amends for the Giro and what better way to do it than land the first stage, and the Maillot Jaune. 

He made his return to racing after the Giro at the TDS, but was outmanouevered by Sagan on the twisty uphill finish to stage 2, but finished really fast, He made amends though on stages 3 and 4, outsprinting Matthews and Sagan and Sagan and Stuyven respectively. You could see it meant a huge deal to him with his celebration after the first stage win, it felt like anger, frustration, joy and relief all pouring out of him. 

He is scheduled to ride the Vuelta too, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him try his utmost in the first week to win as many stages as possible before calling it a day, knowing that the team will be looking after Mas and Alap after that. So expect him to come out with all guns blazing on this first stage, he won the first sprint stage in both the Giro and the Vuelta last year. 

Of course, it's the Tour de France and an uphill stage finish, then we should expect Peter Sagan to be involved. A master at the uphill sprint finish, he showed his abilities again in that uphill stage 2 in the TDS, but he'd probably wish it was a bit trickier and challenging a finish than this straight line.

Daniel Oss and Max Schachmann will get him near the front with 2kms or so to go, he'll do the rest from there, barging and bumping others off of Viviani or Groenewegen's wheel. He might have won a stage in California and the TDS, but I've not been overly impressed with him this year and he might just be done for speed by some of the faster guys here on the first stage. 

Michael Matthews looks a big price at 18/1, but it was curious to hear him say after Dumoulin's withdrawal that he was 'confused and disappointed', that he'd been preparing to work for Dumoulin in the Tour and maybe he didn't feel he had done the right training to be competing in the sprints here. I think he will score well throughout the Tour and will be one of the last men standing, but he should find a few of these guys too fast for him too on the first day. 

Sonny Colbrelli has one stage win to his name this year, but that was in the Tour of Oman against limited opposition, but he almost won the Italian nationals last weekend, he won the sprint, but Formolo had escaped and taken victory. He also almost won that second stage in the Tour last year, he came bobbing and bouncing after Sagan but just ran out of road. He will find 4 or 5 of these guys too fast again I fear. 

Should anything happen to Groenewegen or Viviani, we could see Wout Van Aert or Julian Alaphilippe get involved too. In fact, Van Aert could be involved in Groenewegen's leadout, keep sprinting and could still land a top 10. And Julian Alaphilippe always races to win, if he sniffs a chance that he could take the stage and the yellow jersey, he'll be fighting for it. 

Alexander Kristoff just isn't fast enough on a finish like this any more and Matteo Trentin, André Greipel, Niccolo Bonifazio and Giacomo Nizzolo will be fighting it out for the remaining top ten places. But watch out also for Cees Bol at a massive price of 150/1 - he likes an uphill finish and has three wins to his name this season, including the uphill finish at Nokere Korse, the final stage of the TOC ahead of Peter Sagan and the first stage of the Tour of Norway. Should Matthews maybe not be 100% ready for this, they might let Bol have a go. At that price, we got to Cees the opportunity!

It should be a great sprint battle amongst a huge number of sprinters on the opening day, and I think I've narrowed it down to Groenewegen, Viviani and Ewan.. And I'm going to plump for Caleb Ewan to hit the ground running - he'll get a great leadout, he'll pop on to Viviani's wheel in the last 500m and his aero position, his light weight and uphill sprinting power can see him outsprint the others and delight Lotto-Soudal's fans and sponsors!

Recommendations:

2pts win on Caleb Ewan at 7/2, you might get 4/1 or bigger on Betfair when they open their market

0.25pts e/w on Cees Bol at 150/1 with various

Matchbets

Jens Debuscherre to beat Pasqualon - 2pts at 5/4 - Debus has a 62-38% win margin over Pasqualon when they are both in the top 10, or 83 to 17% margin when both of them are in the top 25. Odds against looks wrong to me. 

Viviani to beat Groenewegen - 2pts at 6/5 - Viviani has a 62-38% record against Groenewegen when they are both in the top 25 and a 67-33% record when they are both in the top 10. Add to that the possibility that Groenewegen does start slowly like last year and odds against again looks great to me.