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Published on Thursday, 30 May 2019 19:32

Giro d'Italia St 19

Treviso - San Martino di Castrozza

Friday 31st May, 151kms 

A shortish stage at just 151kms, but with everyone thinking about the brute of a stage the next day and the final TT after that, could it be another day that the breakaway makes it all the way? 

I think the break have a great chance of staying away, the GC teams are tired by now and there is a colossal stage through the Dolomites to come tomorrow. They will be happy to let the break go, build up a 9 or 10 minute lead and then have their own little duel over the last 5kms or so to see if they can steal any time gaps on their rivals. 

Stage 18 Review

Well after all the speculation as to what was going to happen today, it was a serious anti-climax when the break actually went, with only Cima, Maestri and Denz getting away after a titanic struggle at the start of the stage. There was a break went which had Gogl and Vendrame in it, but that was quickly pulled back, and with the average speed in the first hour hitting 51.4kmph it took a long time for a break finally to be let go. 

It was a break of no-hopers, Nico Denz, Mirco Maestri and Damiano Cima, and despite puling their lead up to around 3'30", the peloton pulled it back pretty quickly to around 2'40" with still about 100kms to go. No chance then. But suddenly the peloton eased off and the break's lead shot up to around 6 minutes, and took it a while, but eventually there was a bit of panic behind as they realised there was only about 40kms to go and they held a lead of around 5 minutes still. 

The next 40kms were tense and exciting - the gap hovered above what looked possible to pull back at almost every single kilometre tick. Even hitting the last 2kms they still had 33". Entering the last kilometre they had 17" and as the three up front started their sprint, the peloton were screaming up the finishing straight just behind them, led by Groupama FDJ.

In an incredibly dramatic finish, Cima held on to take the stage, by about one metre, Ackermann came screaming through the pack to take 2nd, with Consonni getting up for 3rd. Démare never looked like he was going to win the sprint, and in the chaos it turned out that his 8th place to Acker's 2nd meant he had lost the points jersey. Unbelieveable from FDJ to chase in the last kilometre to then hand the jersey to Ackermann. A total fuckup after not doing a tap of work all stage. Even Senechal and Gibbons managed to beat him. 

Incredible win for Nippo Vini though, that's an incredible 8th win from the break this Giro and it might not be the end of breakaway wins yet. As for Démare, all he can do is to try to get in the break tomorrow and take the intermediate sprints, there is a chance, there's only a Cat 3 after 60kms to get over before two intermediate sprints. FDJ need to just go for it, they have nothing to lose.. Get a few guys in the break with Démare, tell the others you will pull hard all day until the sprints and then let them at it. 

The Route

A relatively easy opening 60kms with just a small little 5km climb to get over 17kms in, a perfect launching pad for the break of the day, as you'll need to be able to climb to get over the final climb of the day. The first real obstacle comes after 60kms and tops out at 66.6kms gone, a bad omen for some? It's not an easy climb though at 7.1% average but is followed by a descent/flat roads for the next 40kms or so. 

There's another little bump with 36kms to go, then it's on to the final climb which is a very steady climb all the way, averaging 5.6% for 13.6kms, but all bar the first 2kms are more like 6.3% average. It looks steeper on the profile, the way it kicks up steeply like that, but 6.3% isn't very steep, it's just that it drags on and on like that final climb to Antholz on Wednesday, only that was a bit steeper, around 8.5%. 

The final kilometre winds its way through the centre of San Martino di Castrozza, and eventually levels out 100 m from the finish. The home stretch is just 200m long.

Contenders

So we're going in to the break lucky dip again and seeing who we can try to come up with for this one. I am tempted to go for Esteban Chaves after his preformance on Wednesday. He looked like he was struggling, he got dropped by a bunch of rouleurs, but he was dragged back in to the race by Bob Jungels and maybe the inspiration of having his parents at the finish line found him a few extra watts to get away and finish 2nd. 

I will tell you now though, he's definitely going to be one of my picks for Saturday, he said in the M-S post-stage video that he will try again on Saturday.. And I would imagine his parents will still be here, they hardly popped over to Italy for just one stage. Hopefully we'll get 25/1 or bigger, but I bet the bookies will make him 14/1 or something silly like that to put us off. But should we have a saver on him for his one just in case? I'm not sure.. maybe if he gets in a good break, then think about a saver on him, but I think he might save the legs for Saturday. 

If Chaves is holding back for Saturday, then maybe one of the other M-S guys will fancy giving it a go today. Mikel Nieve might like it a bit steeper for the final climb, but if it does come to a shoot-out amongst a group of tired guys over the last 6kms or so, he'd be one of my favourites. Lucas Hamilton might also try, he said after stage 17 that he tried but missed it, and will try again. If they get Hamilton and Nieve in the break they could do well. Nieve at 22/1 and Hamilton at 25/1 will do. 

Going back to the break from Tuesday - Bob Jungels showed he was up for getting in the break and showed good power on the easier slopes, but struggled on the steeper parts, coming home the last of the break at the finish, losing over 2 minutes to Chaves on the last climb. This is a much easier climb, and it may even be that we see him launch a monster attack on the 2-3% slopes coming in to the bottom to try to get a head start on to the final climb, and if he can tempo it up the climb at a steady pace, and if there are a lot of dead legs behind, he might just make it all the way. He's a massive price at 125/1. 

Gianluca Brambilla was disappointing, I was willing to give him another go after saying earlier in the race that he is not the Brambilla of a few years ago, but when push came to shove, even with Conci doing a lot of the pulling for him, he couldn't do anything. Not this time for me. 

Davide Formolo might fancy it again, I think he blew it badly on Tuesday by disrespecting Peters and just letting him ride off. Clearly one of the strongest guys in the break, he took far too long to react and the race was over. I am thinking though that now where he is in GC he won't be let go again, and he might save himself for Saturday anyway. 

It now looks to me like Ineos are worried about Sivakov's top 10 placing, he is only a minute ahead of Polanc in 11th. The team didn't exactly do a traditional Team Sky rip up the final climb and pull back the break, but they did put all men to the front they had, including Puccio, Sosa and Dunbar. I think that they will possibly look to stay with Sivakov again, but on an easier climb like this they might be happy to let Dunbar or Sosa go up the road, Henao, Narvaez and Puccio can look after Sivakov. Dunbar still looks strong, he took a good pull at the front yesterday on the final climb and came home just a minute after the GC group.  

Astana will be keen to get a man up the road too I think, maybe Jan Hirt will have recovered from his ordeal on the Mortirolo stage by now, and will be all out to take revenge for his loss to Ciccone. In fact, any one of Hirt, Pelle Bilbao, Ion Izagirre or Davide Villella could fancy this, but will they be looking to save them for a possible all-out assault by Lopez on Saturday's stage? It's possible.. they might get men in the break Saturday for Lopez to bridge up to.. But they might let someone go today in search of a stage win.. 

AG2R will be buzzing after their first Giro stage win since John Gadret many moons ago, we might even see Peters on the attack again. I picked Larry Warbasse two days ago, he didn't get away, but he seems to be going well, he was with the GC group right up until it was exploded by Landa and he came home just behind Eddie Dunbar. If he's still got good legs like that he might fancy it.

Alexis Vuillermoz might be getting over his asthma scare on Tuesday, he finished 49th Wednesday, just a few minutes behind the GC group, This is a finish that would suit him if he can get in the break. I don't think there's much point in he holding back for Saturday, I don't think that's a stage for him, so this is his last chance. At 66/1 he's worth a shot, I think he'd be 33s for this if he hadn't had his asthma attack. 

EF might try to get a few guys in the break again after a day off today, Tanel Kangert is looking strong still and might prefer this finish to Wednesday's, but it's been nearly three years since he last won a race. Joe Dombrowski seems to be finding his legs too, he was in the break of the day on stage 16, couldn't go with Ciccone and Hirt, but when Nibali and Carapaz came up to him he was able to stay with them and finished a very good 8th place. When he finished 3rd in that stage in 2016, it was on a profile more similar to Saturday's stage, but given that he might be asked to look after Carthy on Saturday he might have some freedom today to have a go if the legs are good. 

Thomas de Gendt is sure to try again tomorrow, he was part of the break on Wednesday, he seemed to be going ok, but completely crumbled when the road got steeper. Doesn't bode well for this stage, but you can be sure he'll be getting stronger in this race as others are starting to fade. 

Will Ben O'Connor finally try to do something? He has been a major disappointment in this race, we've barely seen him in the last three weeks. I had high hopes for him coming in to the race, he has massively underperformed and sits in 30th place, almost an hour behind Carapaz. Dimension Data have got absolutely nothing out of this race, they have been abysmal as a team, maybe O'Connor will try to get in the break and salvage something for them. 

Of course there are loads of others who could go in the break, we could name 30 guys and maybe still not pick the winner, we could get another Cima-type result like today. But if it comes to a GC battle, which is very possible too, who are we looking at to maybe steal the stage? Richie Carapaz is clearly in brilliant form and probably still needs more time to be safe. I think he'll be trying to skip away again on that final run-in, but whether it will be for the stage win, or just to gain time on his rivals after the stage has been won is the question. 

Mikel Landa looks like he can ride away from all of these guys whenever he wants, and he has been making noises that he still thinks he can win this Giro. I saw a journo report as well today that the rumours going around the press room are that Movistar are going to let Landa attack and go to try to win the Giro, in an effort to persuade him to stay with Movistar and not sign for Bahrain... But will he try tomorrow or save it all for an all-or-nothing attack on Saturday? He's unlikely to take the time needed in one go on Saturday, so he might have to start taking a minute or so tomorrow if he can. 

Miguel Angel Lopez was a strange one on stage 17, he attacked in the last 3kms, pulled over, went out the back door, got back on, shadowed Roglic and Nibali until Carapaz took off with 1100m left, when he promptly shot off up the road after him, leaving all the others in his wake. It's been a hugely disappointing Giro for Lopez, he will desperately want something to save the race for him and a stage win here would do nicely. The last few kilometres look perfect for him to attack.. Carapaz and Landa might just let him go, keeping an eye on Nibali and waiting for their own chances to attack away to try to steal some time. 

Simon Yates just doesn't look capable of riding away from these guys at the moment, he was disappointing again on Antholz, and Bauke Mollema, Rafal Majka and Pavel Sivakov also look like they are just about hanging in there rather than looking like they will be able to ride away from the likes of Landa or Carapaz. Nibali will try, he will probably attack a few times, but he just doesn't seem to have the power and the acceleration to get away and stay away. 

It is a very, very open stage, and you can see that just by looking at the prices, the bookies haven't a clue who's going to win this tomorrow, they've made Lopez the 13/2 favourite, with Landa 8/1 and Carapaz 11/1.. I think I'll plump for a selection of breakaway riders again and see if yet another break can make it all the way. But also. I think if it comes back together, Lopez might just have it in him to attack hard enough with about 3kms to go, and maybe, just maybe, Landa and Carapaz will let him go in order to just mark Nibali and the others and save their legs for the final two stages. 

Update - 09:30: Adding Eddie Dunbar at 70 on Betfair, I said the other day that as long as he's around 50/1 or bigger I'll back him, and I want to have him onside again today at that price. I have increased my confidence in the break making it today, and a strong guy winning it.. I'm happy with my guys, hopefully we'll get a few in a break of about 15 and they could make it all the way. 

Recommendations:

0.5pts win on Mikel Nieve at 25/1

0.3pts e/w on Bob Jungels at 125/1 (he's been cut to 66/1 by now, but that's still worth a go)

0.3pts win on Alexis Vuillermoz at 66/1

0.3pts win on Larry Warbasse at 150/1 with Betway

0.3pts e/w on Ben O'Connor at 66/1

2pts on M A Lopez at 7/1 with Betway

0.5pts win on Eddie Dunbar at 70 on Betfair

Matchbets

Carapaz to beat Nibali - 3pts at 5/6

O'Connor to beat Dupont and Pozzovivo to beat Hirt - 2pts at 11/8

Majka to beat Polanc - 2pts at 4/6