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Published on Sunday, 26 May 2019 11:12

Giro d'Italia St 16

Lovere - Ponte di Legno

Tuesday 28th May, 226kms 

They return from the second rest day to what should have been a brute of a Queen stage, with the back-breaking twin challenge of the legendary Passo Gavia and Passo Del Mortirolo. 

It should have been a stage that would have been a stage that saw them cover 226kms and climb over 5,000m, but because of the weather conditions on the Gavia, and with the possibility of frozen roads on the descent, the stage has been changed and the Gavia has been removed. 

Instead the stage is now 192kms and has the added climbs of the Cevo and Arpica instead of the Gavia, and the Cima Coppi is now moved to stage 20's climb of the Passo Manghen. The Mortirolo is still here, and it still looks like a beast of a stage that could shake things up even more.  

They climb more or less from the start and climb for 28kms, then descend 8kms before climbing another mountain of 9kms in length, but neither of these climbs are even categorised and are just warm-ups to the main events to come. The Cevo and Aprica are tough, but nowhere near as bad as the Gavia would have been, but after 15kms of valley road they start on to the Mortirolo - 11.8kms long at 10.8% with over 30 switchbacks along the way.

They are approaching it from Mazzo, the hardest side to ascend the Mortirolo from, with parts hitting 18% and kilometres 3.5-6 averaging closer to 13%. After those two, the climb to the finish in Ponte de Legno will feel like a descent, it's only around 2.4% for the last 7kms.  

Stage 15 Review

What a stage it turned out to be today, with a dramatic last 30kms that saw Roglic crash twice and Vincenzo Nibali and Simon Yates make a move. Richard Carapaz was outstanding once again and is looking more and more like a winner of this race, covering everything Yates and Nibali could throw at him and extending his lead over Roglic. He's now the 11/10 favourite to win the race, with Roglic out to 5/2 after his challenging day. 

He leads now by 47" to Roglic, with Nibali another minute back. He is around 7/4 on Betfair to win though, and I've taken some more of that to top up the lay of Roglic I made a few days ago at 1.7-1.8. I think it is going to be very hard to depose him now, I think he will only take more time out of Roglic and Nibali in the mountains in the coming week and will have a buffer of over a minute on Roglic on the last day and will contain his losses in the TT to secure the Giro. 

As for the stage, it was indeed not a stage for the GC men in the end as regards the winner, the break made it, but what a bizarre stage we had. Only two men went in the break, they'll never make it everyone said.. then Cataldo and Cattaneo's lead suddenly ballooned to over 15 minutes with 100kms to go and they were the 7/4 and 5/2 favourites.  

M-S started working, maybe Yates fancied it, and the lead tumbled to 7 minutes or so and they were out to 5/1 and 6/1. But then they ran out of lead men and the gap stabilised again. Things kicked off, Yates attacked, Movistar chased him down, he attacked again and suddenly Roglic was on the ground. He took Tolhoek's bike, as apparently Engels had stopped in the team car for a pee, and as they descended off the Civiglio he crashed again, in to a barrier. 

Carapaz, Nibali and Yates went for the jugular and pressed on and in the end they came to within 11" of actually taking the stage win. If some of the teams had started riding earlier, or a little harder then Yates would have won the stage, as I sort of suggested might happen. He is indeed back, he was full of action today, and his sprint at the end was very powerful to take 3rd.

He secured the matchbet against Lopez as I thought he might, but unfortunately that was all that went right today, none of our break candidates featured, I can't believe how small the break of the day turned out to be. It does set up a hell of a final week though, with Carapaz, Roglic, Nibali, Landa, Majka, Mollema and Yates all still technically with a chance of winning this race, it's the most open final week in a Grand Tour I think I can ever remember. 

Arnaud Démare secured a few more points today and looks certain, as long as he finishes, of at least landing us the each-way return, he's 8/11 to win it with Ackermann and Carapaz probably the only two that can stop him. Ciccone is the KOM winner-elect, but there's still a lot of points to be won, the penultimate stage could be all-important to deciding the winner. Movistar have taken a commanding lead in the Team Classification, but Astana could still have a say in this competition, although it's unlikely they'll be able to pull back over 26 minutes. 

The Route

This is not just a brutally hard stage altitude-wise, but they cover a long distance of 192kms on the stage too - not as long as the 226kms it was scheduled to be, but tough none-the-less. There will be some very tired bodies at the end of the day. They start out from Lovere and immediately start climbing the Passo Della Presolana, officially 4kms at 7.1%, but they will actually have been climbing for 28kms by the time they crest the summit. A quick 8km descent is followed by another climb, the Croce di Salven (9.1kms at 3.9%) and that's followed by a 15km descent. 

They descend for 15kms, then go along the gently sloping valley road for another 20kms, meaning that some riders dropped on the first two climbs will have a chance to get back on ahead of the next climbs. After 78.2kms they start the Cevo (10.8kms at 5.8%), descend for 8kms and start on the long drag up to the top of the Aprica. The categorised climb is only 15kms at just 3.4%, but they will have been climbing for almost 30kms from the bottom. 

A 12kms descent is followed by 14kms on the rolling valley roads ahead of the Mortirolo. The Mortirolo is another legendary Giro climb that has been used often in the race. Last crested in 2017, Luis Leon Sanchez led over it that day but the stage was won by Vincenzo Nibali in a two-up sprint with Mikel Landa. That day it was the first of three huge climbs, the other two being the Stelvio and Umbrailpass. In 2015 Mikel Landa was the victor ahead of Kruijswijk and Contador on a stage that had a very similar finish to this with the Mortirolo and then a gentler 3% climb for the last 9kms. 

It is much steeper than the Gavia on the categorised part, officially given as 11.9kms at 10.9%, there is a really hard section from the 3.5km-9.5km mark of the climb which averages 12.2%, with parts hitting 18% and 2kms in the middle averaging 13.6%. It does ease back to 'just' 9.2% for the last 3kms, but by then most guys are on their knees. 

A 14km descent and back on to the route they came up earlier in the stage, heading back to the finish in Ponte di Legno. The final climb is a breeze in comparison to what they've been over already, with the last 15kms averaging just 2.3%, with the last kilometre almost flat, just 1.6%. 

Contenders

This has been priced up as a GC stage, with all the GC favourites at the top of the betting. Hard to argue against it though, it is likely that the GC men will come back after the rest day and be ready to try to blow this race apart once again. There aren't many days left in the race and there are still loads of guys in contention. Roglic has to be on his guard, he's really being tested now and really cannot afford to lose any more time to Carapaz or he won't be able to catch him in the TT.  

Carapaz looks like he is in such form that he could still be on the offensive in the coming week. He probably knows that he needs maybe another 30" to be able to relax a little going in to the TT, and a 10" bonus for winning tomorrow's stage would go nicely towards that, a 10-20" advantage on the line would be even better. And he is one of the few guys in the race that could go on the attack, even in the pink jersey.

He looks so much stronger than a lot of the others right now and confidence is coarsing through his veins at the moment. He is capable of going with the likes of Yates and Nibali when they go on the attack, he could well jump away from them again if they wear themselves out while he sits on their wheels. The way he won stage 14 though, jumping away from the favourites group and putting time in to them all, could well happen again on the Mortirolo. If he can jump again and get 20-30" at the top, they might not catch him again.

And even if he doesnt' jump away, and they come to the final climb together, he is also capable of jumping away again, that gradient on the final climb is perfect for him. Lots of ways he can win it, lots of reasons why (he needs time, he's probably the best climber in the race at the moment, got a super team with him to set it up for him).. After backing him on Saturday, I don't think we should desert him and should be on him again tomorrow. 

Bet365 have Vincenzo Nibali as joint 11/2 favourite, and he has to be respected of course, he's starting to come alive.. But how does he win it? I think the only way he can is by being right at the front going over the top of the Mortirolo and descending like a lunatic again to eke out a small advantage starting the final climb, and maybe he can hold on. He sprinted pretty well on stage 14 to take 3rd, but it's unlikely he'd win a reduced bunch sprint so he probably has to come home solo.

I don't think he is strong enough to get away from Landa, Carapaz, Yates, Majka and Lopez, but he has to start taking time back very soon too, he's running out of chances to really make a serious move for victory. He will lose loads of time to Roglic in the TT, but would be similar to Carapaz based on the two TTs to date in this race. So he has to start focusing on Carapaz now and not be so obsessed with Roglic - he has nearly 2 minutes to make up on the leader. 

Simon Yates is finally starting to come in to some form, he has been a lot more impressive in the last two stages, pulling back time and finishing 2nd on 14 behind Cara, and sprinting away from the others in his small group to take 3rd on 15. He's 6/1 but I'd actually give him a better chance of winning than Nibali, he is a lot more capable of escaping at the moment and looks really fired up now to start moving up the GC again.

Victory is almost certainly out of the question, a top 3 probably too, maybe even a top 6 - so a stage win would make up a lot for the disappointment of how the race has gone for him. He has Nieve, Hamilton and Chaves to work for him and set it up, he could go on the Mortirolo, a steep climb suited to his abilities, but also he could win a sprint amongst these guys at the finish. 

Miguel Angel Lopez has been a major disappointment this Giro, he just hasn't looked himself at all this race, less Superman, more superbad. We've not seen any of his searing attacks, he can barely follow the wheels when the big moves go and has just shipped more time to his rivals in almost all the key stages. I know he rides for Astana and they are notorious for their post-rest day dramatic improvements, but it's hard to see him pull something out of the fire tomorrow and win this stage. 

Carapaz's team-mate Mikel Landa is one who has fond memories of the Mortirolo as he has won a stage of the Giro in the past that went over the Mortirolo. Maybe Movistar will look to shake things up a bit by getting Landa to attack on the Mortirolo to see what sort of response it pulls out, the likes of Roglic, Nibali and Yates will probably be more concerned with watching Carapaz right now.

Landa is highly capable of being able to attack on the Mortirolo and ride away from all these guys, he's not the worst descender in the world, so could hold his advantage starting the final climb. If Yates, Roglic and Nibali start attacking each other to no effect and Carapaz just sits and marks all of them expertly like he did on Sunday, then Landa will just pull out more and more time. As much as I like Carapaz for this stage, I'm very tempted by this reasoning and logic to back Landa instead. Cara will still have a few other team-mates with him possibly, so he should be fine. 

And Primoz Roglic... How it's all falling apart, it's sad to see, but hey, that's the Giro, just ask Simon Yates! He is still in the race though, very much so - he is capable of probably taking 50" out of Carapaz on the last day TT, and any time gains through dropping rivals or bonus seconds on the line will ease the pressure a little bit more and more. He seemed unflappable a few days ago, looked so cool about everything he was actually becoming boring, but the decision to not stop and change Tolhoek's bike when the car came up to him suggested the pressure is getting to him and he's making bad decisions.

And he has looked on a few occassions in the last few days like he is struggling now to go with some of the big accelerations when they come, he is a sitting target for all the others now who will be looking to test him again and again. Is he capable of fighting back and showing them he's still here and should be feared?

Well, it is possible - he would like this finish normally, but the worry once again is that he will be all on his own from possibly even before the Mortirolo starts, definitely from about half-way up, and he will find it hard to chase every attack, and if anything were to happen again to him he will be all on his own. Two many question marks for me to want to back him. 

After that you are looking at long shots like Giulio Ciccone who will be after the KOM points on the Mortirolo, but will probably be part of a break rather than trying to see if he can hang on to the GC guys when they kick off, and I'm not sure the break will make it tomorrow. I think things will kick off early and they will be caught on the Mortirolo.

Same goes for the likes of De Gendt, who is possibly, finally, going to get in that break everyone has been expecting, every single day! Ivan Sosa, Eddie Dunbar, Mikel Nieve, Valentin Madouas, Alexis Vuillemoz, Fausto Masnada, Pelle Bilbao, Ion Izagirre, and Joe Dombroski are others who are possible breakers, but again, it will be hard for them to go all the way I think. 

And the likes of Hugh Carthy, Bauke Mollema, Rafal Majka, Ilnur Zakarin, and Davide Formolo just don't look like they have the legs to be able to ride away from the top GC guys here. 

This could be another brilliant stage, a stage where we could see the race blown apart inside the first 50kms again and Roglic stripped of most domestiques. We should see M-S help Movistar to control things and chase the break, as I think Yates will really fancy a crack at this stage too. We should also see Pozzovivo and Caruso come to the front on the Mortirolo to try to set up Nibali for an all-or-nothing attack down the descent. But I still think Movistar will hold most of the aces for this stage and Landa e/w at 8/1 looks alright to me, but I'm also going to cover on Yates, as I think he'll be the fastest in a sprint, but also could be capable of attacking away to win. 

On the overall, I think Carapaz is going to be very hard to dethrone now, and I'm adding to my position of laying Roglic at 4/5 by backing Carapaz at 7/4.

Recommendations:

1pt e/w on Mikel Landa at 8/1 with Skybet

1pt win on Simon Yates at 6/1 with various

2pts on Carapaz to win the overall at 7/4 with Betfair exchange

Matchbets

Vuillermoz to beat De La Parte and Ciccone to beat Seb Henao - 2pts at evens

Hugh Carthy to beat Majka - 2pts at 7/4

Yates to beat Lopez and Masnada to beat Conti - 1pt at 7/4