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Published on Thursday, 02 May 2019 21:12

Giro d'Italia St.15

Ivrea - Como

Sunday 26th May, 237kms

This will be an interesting stage that finishes like the Autumn Classic il Lombardia, with the climbs of Ghisallo, Colma di Sormano and Civiglio coming before the downhill charge to the finish in Como.

Could it be that we see Vincenzo Nibali win on this course again, following his victories on this exact finish in Lombardia in 2015 and 2017? The blueprint on how to win this stage is well known now, with Nibali's wins coming from attacks on the Civiglio - but will it be different with a peloton of Grand Tour squads and several GC candidates looking to possibly gain time and bonus seconds by winning the stage?  

Stage 13 Review

After a load of early skirmishes which showed that Jumbo-Visma were weak on the very first climb, a small group of GC favourites were already in front on their own with only 28kms of the stage gone. It came back together in the valley though, and soon a strong-looking break with Ciccone, Izagirre, Carthy and 4 others went up the road. J-V and UAE kept a tight leash on them though and it all came down to the San Carlo as expected. 

There were skirmishes and scraps and attacks, but nothing really stuck, Mollema struggled, Zakarin really struggled, then suddenly our man Carapaz just took off with about 4kms to go from the top and suddenly he had 12", then 20", then 30". They tried to catch him on the descent, Nibali leading the way down and Lopez was struggling as I expected, but Carapaz held his gap and as the others all looked at each other the gap ballooned out to over a minute and it was game over.

A superb win for Carapaz and a nice 8.6pt profit, another good Saturday... It also sees Carapaz take the pink jersey by 7", and he's now in to 11/4 second favourite. I think he has a huge chance now of winning the race, but he will find it much harder now to get away now that he is in pink. That frees up Landa though to throw a few attacks in to shake things up and we could see Landa get away as Nibali and Roglic watch Carapaz. 

It all makes for an intriguing final week, Roglic keeps playing games, he keeps shadow-boxing and while doing so he might be watching the race go away from him. Nibali looked on the limit today, I can't see how he's going to make back the time to win this, I've laid him at 4/1 today again. Majka, Mollema and Zakarin are out of it again, I can see only four possible winners now, Carapaz, Landa, Roglic and Nibali, with Nibali the least likely!

The Route

"After traveling across the northern Po Plain, the route goes back onto the recent “historical” course of the Giro di Lombardia in Asso. The route (237 km, the longest Giro stage) takes in climbs up Ghisallo, Colma di Sormano (but not the wall), Civiglio and San Fermo. This is a tough stage, which may be even suited to Classics specialists."

Contenders and Favourites

This was a stage that I had marked down as one for the breakaway and after watching the race over the last few days, and today, I'm even more convinced it will be a break day. Now that Movistar have taken the pink jersey, I think the race will calm down a little bit and be controlled by a proper team and not the jokers of UAE and J-V. The GC men have had a tough few days and might fancy a semi-rest day tomorrow ahead of the rest day on Monday, I don't think this is a stage they see as one that any great time gains can be won or lost, so might just dial it back a notch and let the break go. 

So break candidates - well, I think Movistar will want to hold all their men back and take it easy tomorrow, Astana might send guys up the road though, and Bilbao was one I had in mind for that, but it looks like others had the same idea - he opened at 25/1, and within minutes, before I could get a bet on, he was chopped to 12/1, a crazy drop. He's now 14/1, still a bit too short. If he gets in the break, I'm likely to have a nibble just in case. 

UAE have lost the jersey, time to go stage hunting. Diego Ulissi has been relatively quiet of late, having to work for both Conti and Polanc, but I think he'll be let loose now and this stage looks a good opportunity for him. He has been 21st and 22nd in the last two Lombardia's, not far off the pace, but if he can get in a break he'll have a far better chance. 18/1 with Bet365 is ok to me. 

He finished in 42nd today, alongside Francesco Gavazzi and Gavazzi is another who I like the look of for this stage. He seems to be getting better as the race goes on and got in the break for us on stage 12, but the Mentoso was too tough for him. The climbs in this stage are tough, but a lot shorter in length and he might be able to hang in there. At 300/1, I have to have a nibble. 

Tony Gallopin was another I was thinking about for the last few days for this stage, but he put in a bit effort in the break with Dupont, for not a lot really. He finished 30th though, so he clearly has good legs, and he finished 7th in Lombardia in 2015. He DNF'ed the last two years, but if he can get in the break I fancy his chances too. 

Ineos will be keen to get someone in the break again, but can Dunbar do it again? He has been superb in the last few stages and is now lying in 24th place in the GC, a fantastic achievement. If he can get 4 minutes he moves in to the top 20. I think though that this stage isn't perfect for him though, if it comes to a reduced sprint, he won't win it as we saw the other day. 

Two men from DQS who I like for this too are Bob Jungels and Eros Capecchi. Jungels has really had a nightmare race so far and languishes over 30 mins down on the GC. He has struggled on the climbs, but has shown a lot of strength on the flat roads. If he can get in the break and is not with expert climbers, he might just hang in there and be able to attack on the run to the finish. 33/1 is alright, worth a small bet, win only, he gives us two chances as he could try a late attack if the GC men catch the break. 

Capecchi rode brilliantly on stage 12, he was strong all day and dealt with everything Brambilla and the climbers could throw at him, but ended up 5th. He's 66/1 if you fancy him to go a bit better this time. 

Gianluca Brambilla is another who I think might like this stage though, he has been hand-cuffed lately working for Ciccone and Mollema, but he might finally be let go and have another go at the stage win, he has finished 10th and 12th in Lombardia in the past. 

Enrico Gasparotto is another guy who has had a disappointing Giro, but he can maybe rescue something from it with a stage win here. He has finished 5th in Lombardia in 2013 and would be dangerous in this finish if he comes there with a small group. At 300/1, why not. 

Giulio Ciccone is the favourite, but I don't think this finish is suited to him, he's far too short to me. Same with Thomas de Gendt, he hasn't looked himself this race and I'm not sure this is a perfect sort of stage for him either. As I said, I don't think it will be a GC day, so am ruling those guys out for now, if it looks like the break is going to be caught, I might have a go on Simon Yates, who looks to be getting his legs back and might surprise them. 

UPDATE - 09:30: I am adding Davide Villella at 100/1 with Skybet, I admit, I'm following a few shrewdies in on this one, but I agree with their logic. He is from Magenta, just an hour from Como and knows the roads very well..  He has finished 5th in Lombardia in 2016 and has also finished 15th and 16th over the years. If he gets in the break there will be very, very few who will know the finish better than him. He's been chopped to 40/1 with most, but Skybet are still 100/1, get in fast.. He's worth a shot at that price.

Recommendations:

1pt win on Gianluca Brambilla at 22/1 with Skybet

1pt e/w on Diego Ulissi at 18/1 with Betway

0.5pts e/w on Tony Gallopin at 28/1 with Skybet

0.25pts win on Francesco Gavazzi at 300/1

0.25pts win on Enrico Gasparotto at 300/1

0.5pts win on Bob Jungels at 33/1

0.25pts e/w on Davide Villella at 100/1 with Skybet

Matchbets:

Yates to beat Lopez - 2.2pts at 10/11

Ulissi to beat Jungels and Carapaz to beat Landa - 2pts at 6/4