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Published on Thursday, 02 May 2019 00:10

Giro d'Italia St 12

Cuneo - Pinerolo

Thurs 23rd May, 146kms

After two dead flat and boring stages, this one is also pretty flat for the vast majority of it, but the profile is punctuated by the spike up to over 1200m for the first Cat 1 climb of the race, the Mentoso. 

They pass through the finish in Pinerolo with 90kms gone and go off on a loop that takes them over the Mentoso and it's hard to see anyone other than the main GC contenders and their strongest domestiques hang on over that climb, it's a tough one that averages 10.6% for 6.5kms in the middle of the climb, 9.4% average for the total distance of 8.9kms. 

The finish will be interesting too - they will have had a sighter of the 'wall' first time through with 70kms to go, they climb the paved/cobbled street and turn off left at the top with 2kms to go, second time around they'll be ascending that a whole lot faster and will dive down for the next kilometre towards the final kilometre.

The streets are tight and tricky, a 'cobbled' climb that hits 20% and a tricky descent, with a very tight right-hander just 400m from the line.. Could be a ballsy late attack that wins this stage from the GC group that might have formed after the Montoso, or a late attack from the break of the day if they hang on..

Stage 11 Review

A trio of Italian pro-conti riders in the break, nothing happened again for 175kms as they were left dangle out front and the peloton took another day off. Even after they were reeled in, nothing happened again until the last kilometre, as the peloton ambled along at club-run speed. 

During the stage Arnaud Démare duelled it out with Selig and Ackermann for the intermediate points, with Selig in fact pipping Ackermann for the 4pts behind Démare, but it showed that Ackermann was feeling ok and up for sprinting.

It was a messy sprint again, with riders all over the place, Elia Viviani was way back in about 20th place with 500m to go, came up in the wind to 4th, tried to muscle in on Démare who was on Ackermann's wheel, but Démare was having none of it and elbowed him back out in to the wind. Suddenly, Ewan kicked again like he did on Saturday, got a gap and held off Démare who tried to come around him in the last 50m. 

Ackermann did incredibly well to even get involved in the sprint, but did he have to beat Viviani to bust our double?! Viviani failed miserably again, didn't even make the podium and promptly announced he was not going to be going any further in this race. 

 Not a good day bets wise, beaten one place for the stage and one place for the matchbet, but at least Démare is now 11pts clear in the points and looking good. Ewan and Viviani are both going home tomorrow.  

The Route

"This short yet demanding stage takes a double pass over the steep Via dei Principi di Acaja (with peaks topping out at 20%) and clears the first categorised summit of the 2019 Giro in Montoso (1st category). The course first follows the mild undulations of the Prealps around Saluzzo. After reaching Pinerolo, the route takes a first pass over the wall, tackles the Montoso climb and goes back to Pinerolo to clear the wall for the second time, 3km before the finish." 

The Mentoso is a tough climb, a pretty hard interruption after a week of flatish roads and small hills. They start climbing with just 41kms to go and after a relatively gentle intro for 2kms at 6.2%, the road kicks up hard at an average if 10.6% for the next 6.5kms, hitting 11-12% in parts and a max of 14%. From the top of the climb there are just 32kms to go, 11kms of which are down the very fast descent off the Montoso, then 21kms to the finish. 

With 8kms to go the road starts to rise gently again as they start to enter Pinerolo and 2,500m before the finish, the route takes a sharp left-hand turn and climbs up the narrow Via Principi d’Acaja (450 m with an average 14% gradient and peaks of 20%, on those bumpy paving stones). Next is a steep and dangerous descent leading into Pinerolo. The last 1,500m are on pretty flat roads, with just a few bends and a short stretch on stone-slab paving. The finish line sits at the end of a 350m long homestretch.

Contenders and Favourites

This is going to be an interesting stage after two dead flat stages. A lumpy, wavy profile for almost 120kms, then the kick up over the Mentoso, followed by that very tricky finish. It looks like a stage where we should see the breakaway men come out to play again, and maybe even some who have been saving themselves for a day like this. There is the first Cat 1 climb of the race here after all, and the 40pts on offer for that can instantly catapult a rider to the top of the KOM standings, should Ciccone not take sufficient points of course. 

On that note, it's highly likely that Giulio Ciccone will be in the break again, he will be very interested in taking that 40pts to extend his lead and maybe start to take him far enough ahead to start to discourage some of his rivals from bothering to go for KOM points going forward. He didn't look great on parts of the climbing on Saturday's stage, but then popped up to take the points at the top of the last Cat 4s.

This is a far bigger test of his credentials though, it's just been little lumps and bumps up until now. He has mixed results on big climbs like this though, some good, some not so good.. If he gets in the break he will be trying his utmost to get to the top first, and if there are a few good climbers with him, he might find one or two too good for him. Also, that's a tough finish, will he still have the legs for that final kick if he has some explosive guys with him? 

It was interesting to see on that Cat 4 on Saturday though that he was very nervous about the fact Thomas De Gendt was on his shoulder and looking like he was keen on the KOM points.. TGD was doing a job for Caleb Ewan of course, but over the top of the climb he made sure he was next over the top, to take a few points. This is more like a kind of stage that he might fancy though, he's been just warming up and training up until now. With Ewan gone home, he's a free man now. 

He did an excellent time trial, completely unseen more or less, he finished 18th, just 2'32" behind Roglic, ahead of Amador, Formolo, TGH, Yates, Lopez etc. 16th at the first check, 17th at the second, he kept a great pace throughout. He will help build up a decent time on the flat, and will power up that climb. The question is, how does he then go on to win? Well, I wouldn't be surprised to see him attack on the descent of the climb, or a few kilometres before they enter the finish town. There could be a lot of tired legs in the break and he could just ride them all off his wheel. He's worth a small saver at 14/1. 

Others? Androni will have a man in the break, and based on his win on the first stage of the Vuelta a Burgos last year, Francesco Gavazzi will like this finish - that too had a cobbled climb to the finish for the last kilometre, averaging 5.1%. He totally dominated the last 500m, he was flying that day. If he is in the break and comes to the final climb with those legs, not a lot will be able to go with him. At 100/1 we have to have a bit of that. 

Nippo will want to have a man in the break too, who though is the question - Damiano Cima is the most likely, but none of them are good enough to win this I think. Bardiani too - Mirco Maestri or Luca Covili, but also they might be tasked with looking after Carboni, they'll want to try to get him back up the Youth Classification after losing the jersey. And Covili and Cima have been in the break in the last two days. 

Davide Cimolai is a guy who could go in the break and hang in there over the climb and sprint to victory from a small group, but also, could be one of very few sprinters left it if becomes a peloton finish. He has won a sprint after a stage with a Cat 1 climb 25kms from the finish in the 2017 Vuelta a Catalunya, he has finished in the top 3 of other similar profiles.

His team-mate Krists Neilands, the Latvian champion, is another who might like this stage, he was flying in Asturias, if he can reproduce some of that in this Giro he will go very close one day. He has been active trying to get in breaks but none have worked out, and he did a solid TT Sunday, finishing 28th, ahead of a lot of fancied riders. At 80/1 he's another I want to have a bit of. 

Enrico Battaglin is another who could give us two chances of victory, but he'd prefer it if the stage finished at the top of the final hill rather than a flat sprint finish. But if he gets in the break, he could manage to escape on that hill and solo to victory, or even with one or two others and outsprint them if they are climber-types. But after his crash yesterday, I'm not sure he's up for it. 

Ion Izagirre is an interesting possibility too - with he being 16'30" down he might be let go in the break. Astana will probably be keen to get a man in the break, as the break could steal 4 or 5 minutes, and it would be good for the team classification. If Izagirre gets in the break he'll have a big chance, either by dropping a lot of the others on the big climb, or attacking away on the short, punchy hill. He was 28/1, I went to back him and he was already down to 18/1 but that still is just about ok I think, I'd kick myself it he wins and I turned down 18/1. 

If Astana get a man in the break, then Movistar probably will want someone in there too, to stay on top of the team classification, something they do take quite seriously in Grand Tours. Rojas, Amador, Carapaz won't be allowed go, and it is probably not a hard enough stage for Landa, he will have his eye on some of next week's stages.

So that leaves Antonio Pedrero, who was selfless in working for Rojas in the break on stage 7, but he his 8th place in that stage is probably the best result he's ever managed in his career.  Luis Mas has barely ever managed to finish in the top 10 of a race, let alone win one, and Hector Carretero and Jasha Sutterlin who will not be winning either. So even though they might try to get someone in the break, unless it's Landa and he rides away from them all on the climb, they won't be winning. 

Trek might be keen to get someone up the road again to try to take a much-needed stage win. Gianluca Brambilla looks a perfect candidate for them if he can get in the break. I say perfect, but maybe perfect for Brambilla of 2-3 years ago, he hasn't been as good recently. But also, with Mollema sitting where he is in the GC, they might rein thema all in for now to look after him. 

Ineos are sure to start leaving riders off the leash soon, and this could be one for Eddie Dunbar. It's a nice short stage at 158kms, that climb won't phase him at all, in fact he could be one of the strongest on it in the break, and he could attack away again on that steep climb near the finish. As long as he's still a price like 50/1 I will take my chances with him on a stage like this.

Domenico Pozzovivo could fancy this stage, he's far enough down to be let go, but I think he'll be asked to stay and look after Nibs. Diego Ulissi could be another of those double-chance shots, he might try to get in the break and he could also win from a reduced sprint, but as long as Conti is in pink, he's not going to be allowed up the road. 11/1 is very short though to take a chance with him

Others who could fancy the break and could finish it off are Enrico Gasparotto, Mikel Nieve, Lucas Hamilton, and a whole lots of other guys really. Alexis Vuillermoz is very short in the betting too at 16/1, I would like to back him, but I'm not sure this stage is perfect for him, I think we'll get better opportunities for him. 

Roglic is pretty high up in the betting at 20/1, he might find himself under attack and having to defend rather than be the one going off attacking. Simon Yates might fancy a go on that hill, but will he be able to get away and hold it? Nibali might also try something tomorrow, but possibly we'll see a bit of a dig by the GC men, but they mightn't be going all out just yet. 

So, we have a few break candidates who might give us a bit of excitement, hopefully a few of them will make it all the way to the finish for us. 

Recommendations:

0.5pts e/w on Ion Izagirre at 18/1

0.4pts e/w on Eddie Dunbar at 50/1

0.3pts e/w on Krist Neilands at 80/1

0.3pts e/w on Francesco Gavazzi at 100/1

0.5pts win on Thomas de Gendt at 18/1

Matchbets

No matchbets interest me tomorrow