Details

Published on Sunday, 19 May 2019 20:03

Giro d'Italia St 10

Ravenna - Modena

Tuesday 21th May, 147km

Stage 10 last year was the longest of the 2018 Giro, this year's stage 10 is one of the shortest at just 147kms. Not a lot to say about it really, it's almost a dead straight line from Ravenna to Modena and barely a ripple in the profile. One to tune in to for the last 10kms. 

Well that was crazy today - Victor Campanaerts did an incredible TT in dry conditions, before the heavens opened and changed the face of the competition for the rest of the day. It was all going perfectly for him, but then he unshipped his chain and and he and his mechanic made an enormous cluster-fuck of a bike change, which ultimately cost him overall victory. It was a great performance by Campa nonetheless, better than I expected, he absolutely blasted along the flat part and held his pace well on the climb, up until the incident.

Instead, it was pre-race 1/5 favourite Primoz Roglic who came from 52" down on Roglic at the second time check to win it by 11" in the end. It was a phenomenal performance in pouring rain by Roglic, the nearest rider, besides Campa, was a minute back, and he put some serious time in to his GC rivals. Bauke Mollema pulled off a sensational time trial to finish 3rd, only a minute back, he was something like 66/1 to win and 9/1 to finish in the top 3. That's his best result ever in a TT like that, don't count races like the Tour of Alberta..

Vincenzo Nibali was also another big winner in terms of scoring well versus other GC rivals bar Roglic, he finished 4th 1'05" behind Roglic.. glad I steered clear of him at such a short price. There were also amazing rides by Tanel Kangert in 5th and Chad Haga in 6th, watch out for the two of them in stages to come as they clearly have good legs, and have freedom to go, especially Haga who is 45 minutes back. Kangert is less than 6 minutes back and has put himself into the GC battle now too. 

Bob Jungels left us down a little with a relatively poor ride in 7th, but he was only 16" behind the podium spot. Hugh Carthy continues to impress too with a superb 8th place, 1'30" behind Rog, and Pelle Bilbao keeps the dream alive for us with a superb 9th place, which will see him in the top 3 once the outsiders currently inhabiting the top 10 start to drop away.

Our chances are also helped by the fact that Lopez just doesn't seem to have good legs at the moment, he had a disaster today and finished 3'45" behind Roglic and now sits in 27th place, 6'19" behind Roglic and almost 3 minutes behind Bilbao. He wasn't helped by a puncture, but that might have cost him 30", not 3'45".

The other big loser of the day was Simon Yates who lost 3'11" to Roglic and 2'05" to Nibali, and now sits 24th, 5'36" behind Roglic. He started well, but in between the first and second time check it started to fall apart for him, as was evident in the 20" he lost to Nibali. But by the time they cut to him coming in to the last 500m, he looked on his knees, and the margin of defeat was a big surprise. Landa also slipped further down, he's now almost 7 minutes back.

With the GC thrown up in the air after that TT, there's a lot of riders who have a lot of work to do though, which means we will see a lot of attacking racing over the next few weeks. But it does look already like it will take a crash or illness to derail Roglic from winning this Giro, he's in to 1/2 already and it's hard to see who will beat him. But I still think it isn't over, you only have to look back to Yates last year to see what can happen. He has lost Laurens de Plus, will the rest of the team stand up to the pressure?  

Nibali is now emerging as the biggest threat it would seem to Roglic, although Bauke Mollema has given his chances of a top 3 finish a world of good after today. Pelle Bilbao, Hugh Carthy, Jungels, Formolo and Majka are all still in the hunt though, Yates and Lopez will have to pull out something special to get back in to the reckoning, especially with a TT finishing off the race too. 

Jungels lost our top 3 bet, but the treble landed to secure a small profit, we move on to week two with some bets looking good, our main GC bet is gone though with Dumoulin's abandon, but we could have some fun with Bilbao. Top 10 is looking pretty good and hopefully he can stay close to the top 3 to get the team behind him. Démare is still in the hunt for the points and Landa could very well now focus on the KOM as he's practically out of the running for the GC. 

The Route

"The stage runs on perfectly flat roads through the Po Plain around Ravenna and Bologna, passing through Lugo, Massa Lombarda, Granarolo nell’Emila and Crevalcore, to name but a few. Then a fast-running and perfectly flat stretch of road leads all the way to Modena, where the stage will surely end in a bunch sprint." 

Even the finish is uncomplicated, with a sharp right turn with 2.2kms to go the only real worry for the riders, the last 2kms are straight and flat. It will all be about powerful leadouts and powerful sprinting at the finish. 

Contenders and Favourites

A dead flat stage, it will definitely end in a sprint. The finishing straight is over 2kms long, this is going to be all about good leadouts and power sprints, it could be a different outcome to Saturday's sprint taken by Ewan. 

Bora will take control with DQS in the final 5kms, there could be a few leadout trains at various lines on the road, as Lotto-Soudal and Groupama will also be involved in the melee. Ewan was superb on Saturday, his team were superb too, keeping him near the front all day and tiring out the other sprinters, I think that he definitely coped better with all the climbing than Ackermann and Viviani, the sting was taken out of their legs for sure. 

Can he repeat it? Well he wasn't great in the earlier sprints, the rain definitely hampered him earlier in the race, he seems to be in much better shape though after Saturday's win, you could see the relief and delight on his face, it almost matched mine. Lotto were very good, but I am not sure they'll be able to match the better leadouts in the final kilometre and he might be scrapping for places again. 

Elia Viviani is due a win, DQS will be desperate for a win and he came close to winning Saturday but couldn't catch Ewan. He did beat Ackermann again though, which would be the second time if he had kept his line straight on stage 3. DQS will blast it up the final straight, Viviani will jump on Ackermann's wheel when he comes to take over in the last 200m and come past him inside the last 100m.. 

Ackermann will be close of course, Bora will get him there and he'll start his sprint from a long way out. But as I said above, I think he could be susceptible to a late charge from Viviani, who might just want it more.. 

Arnaud Démare won't be far off, but he just doesn't seem to have the speed to beat the top 3 guys here. Matteo Moschetti has been coming close, he's looked good at times, but was completely out of the running on Saturday, he was dropped a long way from home. 5th to 10th again for me. Same with Jakub Mareczko, Giacomo Nizzolo, Simone Consonni and Davide Cimolai, they'll be battling out for the last of the top 10 places unless something happens up front to the top sprinters. 

So, we'll give Viviani another go, I think he'll be desperate to win his stage and this is a great opportunity for him, he'll be looking to try to land a stage win or two before pulling out next weekend... He offers a little bit more value to me than Ackermann, although it could be very close indeed.. 

Update - 23.58: Adding a small bet on Marezcko, the straight and flat stage is more to his liking and we might finally see him involved in a sprint finish proper. At 28/1 he's worth a shot with Betway, he's just 15/1 with hills. Also if you think that maybe he won't be able to land a podium spot, then he's worth a look in play at the finishing positions bets with Bet365, you'll probably get around 5/6 he'll finish 4th to 9th and that's probably a pretty solid bet.  

Recommendations:

2pts win on Viviani at 7/4

0.3pts e/w on Jakub Marezcko at 28/1 with Betway

Matchbets

Marezcko to beat Moschetti - 2pts at 6/5 with Betway

Jungels to beat Roglic - 2pts at 8/11 with 365