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Published on Thursday, 16 May 2019 09:20

Giro d'Italia St 7

Vasto - L'Aquila

Friday 17th May, 180kms 

The Giro visits L'Aquila, in an area devastated by earthquakes just 10 years ago and after a hilly day in the saddle the riders will face a very tricky and demanding finish in L'Aquila, with tight roads and steep gradients. 

This looks like a stage to sit out until 60kms to go and then it could get very interesting indeed. The climb from Popoli should shake out a few and it carries on being tough for the last 30kms or so. The finish is going to be very exciting I think, with riders attacking on the last climb with 8-9kms to go and then the charge down the dangerous streets of L'Aquila before the punchy climb up to the finish line.

It looks a stage that would have seen a great battle between Valverde and Sagan once upon a time, but I doubt either of them would have been challenging for this had they been here, such is their poor form of late (although Sagan does seem to be feeling a little better over in Cali at the moment..)

The race has twice finished on this uphill finish in L'Aquila, the last time up here in 2010, Evgeni Petrov of Katusha took the win, with Dario Cataldo and Carlos Sastre 5" behind him. Bradley Wiggins was 2" further back with Richie Porte 53" down. It is a very fast finish, descending at high speeds to the 2km to go mark, where they suddenly have to lock on the brakes to get through the right-hand hairpin.

When they came through this bend in 2010, in the pouring rain like Wednesday's stage this year, Jan Bakelants of OmegaPharma Lotto slid out when racing for the stage in the first three on the road. Dario Cataldo held maybe a 10" lead with 1km to go, but Petrov came flying up to him with 550m to go and went straight past him on to victory. The final climb is hard, as you can see in the video below, there were riders all over the place.. 

Stage 6 Wrapup

It took a long time for the break to go, there was a lot of attempts, but they were finding it hard to stick. Primoz Roglic crashed in the opening kilometres and ripped the arse out of his shorts, but seemed to be comfortable enough throughout the stage. A break finally went with a lot of strong guys in there, including Bagioli and Antunes for us, but also Rojas and Amador for Movistar, Masnada, Madous, Conti and Serry (he did go, I didn't think he would after yesterday's effort!)

They built up a big lead while Jumbo Visma tapped out a pace, and seemed happy to let the jersey go, as they said they would before the stage. They hit the final climb with a lead of almost 7 minutes and a few kilometres in to the big climb of the day Masnada took off and only Valerio Conti was able to follow him, as he sniffed a chance to take the Maglia Rosa, as he was the best-placed rider in the break. 

And they managed to make it all the way, as behind there were tired legs everywhere, with Plaza, Rojas and Carboni managing to escape the remnants of the break to fight out third place. Rojas took that, his 9th podium in a Grand Tour, without ever having won one. Conti was a big winner too, taking a huge 5'24" lead over Roglic who has slipped down to 11th place, with Sam Oomen after moving back in to the top 10. 

Conti now holds a 1'41 lead over Carboni, with Nans Peters in 3rd. Carboni has taken the young leaders jersey, so a great day all round for the Italians. 

The Route

"The route is wavy but uncomplicated, and particularly suited to finisseurs in the stage finale. After starting along the Adriatic coast, the route travels across the Abruzzi Apennines through Ripa Teatina and Chieti, all the way to the finish in L'Aquila, with a first steep spurt followed by the final ramp that already hosted the finish in 2005 and in 2010." 

After a rolling and lumpy opening 90kms or so, the main obstacle of the day to overcome is the climb up from Popoli with 55kms to go, the Svolte di Popoli. The climb is 8.9kms long at an average of 5.6%, but once over the top they carry on climbing gently for another 22kms until they reach a height of almost 900m before descending down for 8kms to San Gregorio. A flat run for 7kms, then another hill to get over, this time it's just 2.9kms long, but at 5.1%, the remaining sprinters will really feel it as it will be full gas at this stage with just 6kms to go from the top.

It could be an opportunity for a late attack from an opportunist, as there is a 4km tricky descent down to the 2km to go mark, then a 3 kilometre descent followed by the uphill last kilometre. There's a hairpin bend that hits 11% with just 500mm to go and then a sharp left turn on to the finishing straight that's just 450m long at 7% gradient.    

Contenders and Favourites

This one is going to be a coin-toss I think between the break making it all the way and the GC teams wanting to pull it back together to fight out this finish. There are bonus points available at the finish and it could very well split up on the run to the line, where some could gain time on rivals. Look at that video above of the finish in 2010, there were riders all over the place - Richie Porte lost 14" to Bradley Wiggins for example, Dan Martin lost over 2 minutes. 

But then looking back at the 2005 finish, it was more or less a full peloton that came to the last 2kms and it turned in to a power-man's sprint with Danilo Di Luca getting the better of Bruseghin, who had gone for it from a long way out. The peloton finished as a bunch just 2" behind them. So it could go either way here, I'm thinking that the break will be caught today and it will be set up for a charge up the last 2kms.

We will have GC men with ambitions of testing their rivals - how is Roglic's arse after his crash today? Will he be a bit stiff and sore? I'm sure Simon Yates will want to test that out on a finish he will like. The likes of Katusha and UAE will want to try to pull it back together to give their uphill sprinters Battaglin and Ulissi a shot at victory, which they would be strong favourites for. I prefer Battaglin out of the two I think, he's more than twice the price of Ulissi. 

But if Roglic is ok, you can be sure he's going to be involved too - he might want to be the one doing the testing, he could put more time in to the likes of Zakarin, Landa etc and extend his gap. Rafal Majka and Davide Formolo could also form a very dangerous duo here in the closing kilometres, the team's attention will switch to them today. Majka could attack early and let Formolo counter. Nibali won't have the kick to win here, but Damiano Caruso might go well on this finish too. 

Another rider who I will have my eye on tomorrow will be Alexis Vuillermoz, I think he has good legs at the moment and he will be close to the front when things kick off. He has the acceleration and punch to maybe get away if there is a little bit of a stall and looking around from the favourites, and they might not chase him down immediately. 

In a similar vein, as we have seen already (and last year), Richard Carapaz is another who will love this finish and will be a big danger. He is very smart at timing an attack to perfection, but they will be watching him a lot closer now I think and it might be that he gets mugged close to the line, he was tying up badly when Ewan came at him in the last 100m. 

EF's Hugh Carthy is also someone who might kick off a bit early as soon as they start on the last climb, he has good acceleration and might get a gap of 10" or so pretty quickly.. but will he be able to hang on? Tony Gallopin has been very quiet so far, in fact, he's been pretty quiet all season, but he currently sits in 15th place on the GC, the legs must be good. A good TT (30th) and a good 14th with the GC men on stage 4's uphill finish, he could be another who will fancy a late attack. 

Team Ineos have a few that can try something here, they might try sending Eddie Dunbar off on the attack early on, maybe on that climb with 10kms to go like he did in Yorkshire, then maybe TGH comes over the top if he's reeled in. Sivakov is another option for them too, he might be one of the strongest if it comes down to a GC sprint.

The bookies have made Giulio Ciccone the 6/1 favourite and frankly, that's a silly price. Ok, he's probably going to try to get in the break, there's a Cat 2's 18 points up for grabs, but first he has to get in to the break, and there could be a big battle for it, and then he has to stay away, and then he has to win the battle to the finish.. Too many ifs for me. 

Thomas de Gendt is also too short at 12/1, he says he won't be attacking all this week as he's on team duty. Mattia Cattaneo is very short with 365 at 16/1, he's a bit more interesting at 22/1 with Betway. Spirits will be very high in the Androni camp after today's win and this is a stage that looks right up his street. 

Trek got a man in the break today, Nicola Conci, but he couldn't stay with the leaders. I think they will try to get someone in the break again tomorrow, they are desperate for a win, and if it's not Ciccone, then maybe Gianluca Brambilla is worth a shot at 28/1 - he would be very suited to this stage, and even if he's not in a break, he could be involved in the finish if it comes to a GC finish.  

It's a very hard stage to call, not one to go mad on stakes wise, but let's have a go at a few who could make the break, but could also give us a shot at the finish too if it's not a break takes it. I think Vuillermoz, Gallopin, Battaglin and Brambilla are four I'd like to keep onside, with Cattaneo as a shot for the break. It could be a day though we see Simon Yates fire his first salvo across the bows of Primoz Roglic, it'll be interesting to see how that works out. 

Recommendations

0.3pts e/w on Alexis Vuillermoz at 50/1 with Bet365

0.4pts e/w on Enrico Battaglin at 22/1 

0.4pts e/w on Gianluca Brambilla at 28/1 with Betway

0.3pts e/w on Tony Gallopin at 40/1 with 365

0.4pts win on Matteo Cattaneo at 22/1 with Betway

Matchbets

Vuillermoz to beat Jungels - 2pts at evens

Hugh Carthy to beat Zakarin - 2pts at 11/10