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Published on Wednesday, 15 May 2019 20:34

Giro d'Italia St 6

Cassino - San Gio. Rotondo

Thurs 16th May, 233kms 

The 'holy stage', the stage finishes in San Giovanni Rotondo, the home of 'Padre Pio' who was made a saint after his death in 1968. It's a very long stage with a sting in the tail, the sprinters will have their work cut out to make it to the finish.

At 233kms it's one of the longest stages of the Giro, but it really isn't very difficult for 207kms as they head east towards the coast. But with 31kms left they hit a bit of a wall - 13.6kms of a climb that averages 4.4%, but a lot of it is around 5-6%, with lots of hairpins.

The climbers/puncheurs will be doing their best to shed the sprinters, and they should be able to get rid of almost all of them by the time they start the descent towards the finish town. But it looks like a great stage for the break to hold on and take a win for the first time to me.. 

Stage 5 Review

So Tom Dumoulin managed to start on a pretty wet and horrible stage, but he didn't get far. They were barely out of the neutralised zone when 'Abandon Tom Dumoulin' came on our screens. He sounded pretty downbeat at the start, saying on the rollers that it was "badly bruised, it wasn't looking good, but that he was going to see how it goes". A real shame when your main pick goes out the window, up to MAL now to do the business for us, and his chances of doing well have increased a lot in the last few days.

All focus now for Tom is on recovering and preparing for the Tour, happy that I took 7/1 on him for it yesterday evening, hopefully he'll be back to 100%, and he won't have a tough Giro weighing on his legs. 

The break went with the usual mix of Bardiani, Androni guys, but also included Vervaeke, given a bit of freedom to go with Dumoulin's abandon, Ciccone, wasting energy with almost no KOM points up for grabs, and Santaromita for Nippo. They weren't given much leeway though, with Jumbo Visma doing the chasing, and about 10kms in to the break Ciccone wisely sat up and waited for the peloton. 

The break were caught long before they entered the finishing circuit, but as a result of the weather, and after numerous consultations with Roglic and Nibali and the like, the time gaps were taken on the first passage of the finish line, so the GC men were able to relax on the final circuit at least. 

In the end, it turned out to be another chaotic sprint in the wet, with standing water everywhere. Viviani went to kick with 300m to go when Gaviria and Ackermann kicked, but he had NOTHING. He immediately gave up and almost caused a crash as he eased down. Gaviria kicked hard, got a small lead, but Ackermann came with a superbly-powerful late charge to mug him on the line.

Viviani said afterwards that he had derailleur problems, but he looked uninterested to me a long way from home, loitering at the back of the peloton inside the last 5kms and had to be dragged up to the front by team-mates. In the chaos Démare started late but came strong to take 3rd again and Caleb Ewan was behind him but looked like he didn't have the legs either, he wasn't getting closer to Démare.

Moschetti took 5th, Gibbons came out of nowhere to take 6th, I'm guessing Nizzolo didn't have the legs today either and told Gibbons to go for it. Mareczko was on Viviani's wheel with 400m to go, turns out it was the wrong wheel to be on and the conditions seemed to get the better of him too. 

So a disappointing stage bets-wise, Viviani let us down, as did Marezcko. The weather didn't help us, the neutralisation meant that we could have easily lost the Jungels/Landa head to head, but maybe the gods smiled on us a little as he finished just one place ahead of Landa to make 2.2pts back and save a white-wash and it was only a small loss in the end.

The Route

"This long wavy stage cuts across the Central-Southern Apennines, from Lazio to the Gargano. The stage is played out on fast-running roads, leading from Isernia, Bojano, Campobasso, Lucera and Foggia, through Rignano Garganico, all the way to the closing ascent in Coppa Casrinelle. The climb is not very harsh, and will lead a selected peloton to the finish line in San Giovanni Rotondo, after approx. a dozen kilometres on flat or mildly downhill roads."

That Coppa Casrinelle will cause some a few problems, being 13kms long and averaging 4.7% for the first 9kms of it. It also comes after 206kms of racing, so there will already be a lot of tired legs in the peloton. The GC teams and puncheurs teams will want to get rid of the sprinters so expect a very high pace here through the hairpins, and the pace should be kept furiously high for the last 18kms as they head towards the finish. 

As they enter SGR with 6kms to go they almost go through the finish line area, but deviate off to the right for a little circuit around the town. The road rolls up and down over two little hills with 3km and 2km to go, then dives down for 500m to the Flamme Rouge on a dead-straight road. The road kicks up for the last 900m, but it's not too steep, around 2-3% gradient, so it should make for a good uphill sprint for those strong enough to still be there. 

Contenders and Favourites

This looks like a day that could be contested by the breakaway, the lumpy start and long distance might disuade a lot of the GC teams from working too hard, and if the right candidate went in the break that could take the jersey off of Jumbo Visma for a few days, I'm sure they wouldn't mind at all.

Also, the sprinters teams might be put off by the Cat 2 climb before the finish, Viviani, Ackermann, Gaviria and Marezcko will not make it over a 13.8km climb that is almost 5% in gradient for the most of it, just 18kms from the finish, the pace is going to be fast and furious as the GC men and the puncheurs teams look to shed all the sprinters. 

Caleb Ewan might be ok, and if he can get over the climb, the uphill sprint will suit him perfectly, but it's a 66/1 long shot. Arnaud Démare will be on the limit, but he might make it, he was dropped on the run-in of stage 4 on the final hill when UAE put the hammer down. But they are still outside shots I think as we might not see any sprinters make it. 

So breakaway candidates - a total lottery with this many riders that could fancy this one, but let's have a stab at a few. I don't think any of the GC teams will send a man up the road, it's all about energy conservation until the mountains start for them. 

Florian Senechal might fancy this one, he looked good at the end of stage 4, managing to get away with the leading group and hanging in there when the attacks came to take 5th place. He showed the legs are good, and with Viviani unlikely to make it, DQS will probably want to send a man up the road. Peter Serry could also go, but I prefer Florian at 150/1 (I just missed the 200/1) as Serry did a lot of work on the front today.

Will Thomas De Gendt finally show himself in a break? If he does, then they probably make it all the way. But he has said that he is here to look after Ewan until stage 12 and I think it could be the same situation today - there is a chance that Ewan makes it to the finish, so he'll be looking after him. And he's way too short at 11/1.

Trying to pick who of the Bardiani/Androni/Nippo lads who will go up the road is nearly impossible, but these are the guys I like: Francesco Gavazzi for Androni - good at a sprint finish from a reduced group on a hilly day like this, it's not too dissimilar to the stage of the Vuelta a Burgos he won last year, and was 7th in that hilly stage 5 last year won by Battaglin. Mattia Cattaneo - good results in similar sorts of races this year, including winning the Giro dell'Apennino and was flying in the Tour of the Alps. 

Niccolo Bagioli for Nippo Vini - 2nd in the Trofeo Lagueglia this year, he hasn't a bad sprint on him and likes a break. Bardiani had two men in the break today, we can count them out, so it leaves 6 to choose from. Paolo Simion or Manuel Senni are the most likely, but I am not that keen on any of them to be honest, Simion is unlikely to make the finish with that hill. 

CCC might be interested in getting men up the road, they have no GC men and Marezcko won't make it, so maybe someone like Amaro Antunes could give it a go, he's one that could attack away from the break on the final climb and solo to victory. 

Tanel Kangert could be one for EF who will like this stage too, he will be strong in the break and will fancy a late attack on those hills before the finish too. Team Ineos might send someone up the road, it's unlikely, as they will be looking after TGH, but maybe they'll send Salvatore Puccio up the road, just so he doesn't cause any more crashes.. . :-)  Eddie Dunbar is also a possibility, he could be one of the strongest on those final climbs, like he was in Yorkshire, but it's a long stage to be burning a lot of matches on.  

Trek might be interested too, Giulia Ciccone tried to go in the break today, but realised it was a futile waste of energy pretty soon and sat up. This stage offers a Cat 2 climb, the first Cat 2 climb of the race that offers 18pts, so I can see him being involved again tomorrow. He might get support from a team-mate, or even if he does't get in, one of the others might fancy it too - I'm thinking Michael Gogl or Will Clarke. Clarke has already been in a break, I think it was on stage 2, he might fancy it again and he's a huge price. 

UAE are probably going to try to look after Diego Ulissi, he has a good chance on this sort of finish again, but maybe they might be willing to let someone like Jan Polanc go on a stage like this, he can climb well, he's got a big engine for on the flat and he's not a bad sprinter as well on a tough finish. 

And getting back to the puncheur types if it comes back together, then Diego Ulissi will have a big chance as I said, and it turns out he's the 13/2 favourite.. That's way too short for me, it's not that steep a finish, and he hadn't the legs to come anyway close to beating Ewan or catching Carapaz. On the other hand, Enrico Battaglin could outsprint Ulissi on a finish like this, I'd rather be on him than Ulissi as my saver.

Primoz Roglic and Simon Yates could be involved in an uphill sprint too, but I think there will be faster guys than them, Jungels, Tao GH and other GC guys won't be far away either if it does come down to a GC finish. 

This is a lottery ticket day - there could be any number of scenarios that could produce the winner, but I'm favouring the break making it, I just think there will be almost no interest from the GC or sprinter's teams in chasing and they should make it all the way. Then it might come down to who will be the strongest on the final climb and the final hills in the run in. Going to throw a few darts and see if some of them come off. 

Recommendations:

0.3pts win on Francesco Gavazzi at 40/1

0.3pts win on Florian Senechal at 150/1

0.3pts win on Niccolo Bagioli at 80/1

0.3pts win on Matteo Cattaneo at 40/1

0.2pts win on Mario Antunes at 150/1

0.2pts win on Tanel Kangert at 100/1 

0.3pts win on Jan Polanc at 50/1

0.1pts win on Will Clarke at 400/1

1pt win on Enrico Battaglin at 14/1, all with Bet365

Matchbets

Formolo to beat Majka - 2pts at 5/6

Polanc to beat Conti - 2pts at 11/8