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Published on Tuesday, 14 May 2019 20:54

Giro d'Italia St 5

Frascati - Terracina

Wed 15th May, 140kms 

The race carries on down the west coast of Italy for the last stage on the Tyrennanean coast with a stage that should be another chance for the sprinters, as the last 40kms are almost dead flat. 

This is a very short stage at just 140kms, they should be done in about 3 1/2 hours. There is a lumpy start to the day, with an 8km climb right from the flag drop and another 5km climb just 10km later before a long downhill run to the only obstacle that might derail the sprinters, a Cat 4 climb that tops out eventually with less than 50kms to go. But it's unlikely to cause the sprinters many problems that can't be recovered from in the flat closing 40kms.

As they enter Terracina they pass the finish line and set off on a 9.2km circuit which hasn't too many tricky bends and lots of long straights, including the finishing straight, which is arrow-straight for almost 1,500m  

Stage 4 Review 

A 3-man break that looked for a while like they might have been given enough rope to make it all the way, but the peloton finally kicked in to action as the gap climbed to almost 9 minutes with about 90kms to go. The gap tumbled quickly over the next 60kms though, with the sprinters, puncheurs and GC teams all contributing to the pace.  

And after nothing happened for 221 kilometres, suddenly, there was carnage. Salvatore Puccio looked behind at 60kmph, Mitchelton Scott drifted right in front of him and suddenly there was a massive crash which held up all bar about 16 riders. That 16 included Roglic, Démare, Ewan, Viviani, Ackerman, Ulissi and Carapaz though, and they pressed on to the uphill last 2kms. 

Viviani got dropped as the hill kicked in, as I thought he might, then suddenly Carapaz seized on a pause in the pace up front to attack hard with 400m to go. Conti was on the front for UAE, with Ulissi on his wheel, but he hadn't the legs to go after him. Roglic and Ulissi tried to come around, Ewan exploded after Carapaz and came within 5m of catching him on the line. If the line was 20m further on he'd have won. Ulissi held on to land the e/w at least by taking 3rd, disappointing outcome as I really thought Ewan had it in the last kilometre. 

Behind though, there was serious problems for Tom Dumoulin - it looks like he hit a chainring with his knee and he limped home over 4 minutes behind Roglic to effectively end his race. And it may be that we don't see him on the start line tomorrow, if he's really hurt he might just pull out to save the legs for the Tour. 

Yates lost 16" to Roglic, as did Nibali, Majka, Lopez, Formolo, Mollema, Jungels and Zakarin. Landa lost 42" more, it looked at first like he was with the lead group, but he wasn't and ended up losing more time... That KOM jersey might just have his name on it... It is a huge shame though for Dumoulin, one stupid mistake from Puccio has potentially ruined his Giro, and might just have handed the race to Roglic already, after just 4 stages. He'll probably be odds on tonight to take it now.

Time to take some of that 7/1 on Dumoulin for the Tour though maybe, others have reacted already to cut him to 4/1, if he abandons he'll have plenty of time to recover and prepare and won't have a tiring Giro in his legs.. 

We were unlucky with our main bets, but got the call pretty right, I think that Ewan would have blitzed that finish with a bit more cover from a bigger bunch and won, Ulissi showed he was up for the stage too. Vuillermoz wasn't far off in 17th, but obviously all positions were affected by the crash. At least the treble landed, pity about Gasparotto, he got caught up in the crash. 0.95pt loss, nothing major, could have been much better though if UAE had't cocked up that finish.

The Route

A zig-zag start to the route that takes them over two climbs inside the first 25kms, the first of which is a tough enough start to the day with an 8km climb at 5.2%, the second is a bit easier at just 5kms at 5.1%. Then after a little run along the plateau after Rocco di Papa they start on a long descent, steep enough for 20kms, then very gentle for another 30kms.

Not long after the intermediate sprint at Latina they turn left and head inland and with 56kms to go they start on the bump of the climb of  Sezze. The Cat 4 climb is just 3.9kms long at 5.2%, but the road keeps climbing for another 5kms or so before desending for 10kms and then it's flat all the way to the final 9.5km circuit around the finish town of Terracina.

The weather is worth noting for tomorrow, it's forecast to rain all afternoon, and there should be a slight headwind on the finishing straight. It will pay to come late.. 

Contenders and Favourites

This should be a straight-forward sprint stage, I don't think the climb with 50kms or so to go will affect the outcome. And I'll be very surprised if Elia Viviani does not win this one. The team feel 'hurt', they feel aggrieved and Elia Viviani even more so - he was livid with the decision and will be fired up to win this one to gain revenge. Not only was he relegated, he lost 50 points in the points classification too, and it saw him hint in an interview prior to stage 4 that he might not go all the way to the finish now (I thought that all along anyway..)

He is short at 9/4 but I really think it will be very hard to beat him and DQS. The team will be all over the pace-making in the last few kilometres, they said before today's stage that they were not going to do the chasing, they knew that Viviani would not make it up the final hill. He'll then jump on Ackermann's wheel in the last kilometer and jump out with 150m to go, where his faster kick will see him shoot past him for the win. 

Pascal Ackermann is a bit more of a diesel engine, he's very, very fast of course, but he starts from further out and is vulnerable to a late charge from the likes of Viviani. He did very well of course today to finish with the first group, he clearly has very strong legs at the moment, but will it have taken a bit out of him? 

Fernando Gaviria said after today's stage "I was feeling well today to fight for the stage but, unfortunately, the big crash in the final kilometers stopped me. I'm fine, I didn't crash, but I got caught up and it was impossible to come back. We'll keep fighting." He didn't look great on stage 2, he came back and 'won' stage 3 with a strong sprint, and today he says he was feeling well too. I think the team were always going to be for Ulissi today, tomorrow it will be all for Gaviria again and he should be close again. 

Caleb Ewan had today's stage marked down as the one that he wanted to win, and he came very close to doing it, he showed superb speed and power in the last 200m. He did empty the tank in the last 300m or so, will that impact his chances tomorrow? It will have given him a boost of confidence though that he was up there today at the front and almost caught Carapaz from maybe a 40m head start. At 7/1 he's not a bad price to take a punt on..

Arnaud Démare won't be far off either, he seems to have good legs and was right up there today too but just got dropped when Carapaz kicked away, he just couldn't go with the likes of Roglic, Ulissi and Ewan. In this straight line finish he will probably be close to Ackermann and Viviani too, but he often likes to go long in his sprints.. will he have the power to hold on for a podium place at 11/1?

Matteo Moschetti is going to surprise these guys one of these days, he was coming fast behind Viviani when Viv cut him up and he had to stop pedalling. He did incredibly well to stay upright and he even managed to finish 4th in the sprint. I am not sure he has the speed though to beat Viviani and Gaviria. 

Jakub Mareczko finished 6th in stage 3's sprint, he wasn't far off at all despite being back in 11th coming out of the chicane. He actually finished really fast judging by the overhead shot and I think he could be a dark horse tomorrow. at 40/1, he's worth a shot, that's a big price for a guy who was just behind the winner.. 

Giacomo Nizzolo, Davide Cimolai, Ryan Gibbons, Kristian Sbaragli and the rest will be fighting it out for the remaining top 10 places. 

Viviani looks a decent bet to me at 9/4 with Bet365, I thought he'd be closer to 6/4, he's just 15/8 with Skybet. That headwind on the finishing straight might not be much, around 8-10mph, but it will pay to come late as he's good at.  It's going to be close again I think, let's just hope they all stay upright on what could be a very wet a slippy course, what with the rain forecast all afternoon. 

Recommendations:

2pts win on Elia Viviani at 9/4 with 365

0.35pts e/w on Jakub Mareczko at 40/1 

Matchbets

Nizzolo to beat Cimolai and Marezcko to beat Lonardi - 2pts at 6/4

Jungels to beat Landa - 2pts at 11/10 (Jungels will be in the leadout for Viviani, Landa will finish mid-pack I think..)