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Published on Monday, 13 May 2019 22:04

Giro d'Italia St 4  

Orbetello - Frascati

Tuesday 14th May, 228kms    

They continue to head south by leaving Orbetello and heading inland a little to some beautiful, rolling countryside en-route to the suburbs of Rome. They skirt around the capital, but don't actually go in to Rome this year.

Maybe it's no wonder they don't want to go through Rome after the farce last year when riders protested about the state of the roads for the final stage circuit and the organisers stopped the clock after the third lap to avoid any catastrophes with the GC. This stage sees them go over plenty rolling hills in beautiful countryside but the last 30kms or so will see them head back towards the urban streets around the eastern suburbs of Rome and it could get quite rough and scary. 

And there's a good looking finish to this stage too, from a viewing point of view anyway, as they climb gently for about 20kms on and up and down road, then descend down a fast and tricky descent from 5kms to go to 2kms to go before kicking up to the line for the last 2kms at around 4.4% average. 

Stage 3 Review

Not a lot to talk about for most of the stage, we had a lone breakaway rider, no-one was interested in joining him and he spent 144kms all on his own, in a 'Kamikaze' solo break. The peloton upped the pace heading towards the intermediate sprint though and he was caught. One notable thing from our point of view was Arnaud Démare popped out to take the maximum intermediate points available to him, coming 2nd in the first and winning the second, to add 20pts to his tally.. Good to see he is interested in it, bodes well for our bet. 

The wind did start to cause problems, but not nearly as much as we expected, it was a crash with 5kms to go that caused the most impact, splitting the peloton and leaving only about 100 riders in the peloton. The leadout battle was intense, but really the chicane blew everthing apart, with some riders coming out of it well, and others not so. Caleb Ewan being one of the worst, he never even got a chance to get involved in the sprint, he came out of it in a bad position and like he was in too big a gear. Disappointing that he didn't even get us a little bit excited. 

In the end we had some major drama, as Viviani won the sprint, but was promptly disqualified for diving left and cutting up Moschetti. So the stage was ultimately given to Gaviria, a big turnaround from yesterday when he couldn't even finish the sprint out of the saddle. It also meant that a decent 3rd for Démare became a very good 2nd and really brings him in to the hunt for the points jersey, he's just 9pts behind Gaviria and is now the 6/4 favourite to take the jersey.. nice.. It also helps his cause that Viviani was given a 50pt penalty in the points competition, that's him done for now I think, doubt we'll see him in the third week. 

Bad day bets-wise though, the carnage saw De Buyst, Canola and Sbaragli finish way down the field and the lottery of where they finished went against us this time. Démare won his, but De Buyst was beaten by Sabatini as JDB finished way down. Big loss, need to bounce back tomorrow.   

The Route

This is a long stage at 228kms and there will be a decent battle on this one between a strong breakaway and the puncheurs/sprinters who will fancy this finish.

They head inland from the coast and away from the finish town of the previous stage of Orbetello, on almost flat roads for 26kms or so. They hit the first challenge of the day then, but it's quite an easy one, a Cat 4 climb to Manciano, then a short descent before an uncategorised, gentle climb for 23kms, that reaches a higher point than the Manciano.

They turn south-east and roll along for 160kms over various lumps and bumps, but nothing too serious, until 26kms or so to go when they turn south-west and start climbing out of the valley towards Frascati. After a series of peaks and dips the road tops out with 5kms to go and they start to descend really fast towards Sovrapasso Ferrovia where they turn left with 2kms to go and the road kicks up at first at 5.8% before levelling out to around 4% for the next 1500m to the line, with the last 500m being 3.8% gradient. 

But it's a tricky closing kilometre though, with a left-hand hairpin with just over 1km to go, then a hard right with 700m to go and a wide left-hand arcing bend for the last 400m. The finishing straight is actually only about 100m long. 

Contenders and Favourites

The stage looks like a good one for a breakaway, the early climb to Manciano will see a group of maybe 6 or 7 get away and they should increase their lead as they continue to climb until around 65kms gone. From then on, it's going to be a TT battle for 150kms between the break and the chasers. The GC men might fancy trying to gain some time on rivals with this tricky, uphill finish, puncheurs and stronger sprinters will fancy it too.

4.4% for the last 2kms shouldn't trouble most of the sprinters, most should be able to comfortably stay near the front. If you have a strong team-mate or team-mates with you, a slingshot in to that last 300m curving road might mean that no one will be able to catch or come around you if you stick close to the left-hand barriers, taking the shortest route. 

It's the sort of finish that should suit the likes of Caleb Ewan very well, he has done well on uphill finishes in the past, such as the final stage of the TOB, the Vuelta stage 5 in 2015 and several stages in the TDU. He also won on the Hatta Dam this year in the UAE Tour, and although I know this is nowhere near as tough a finish as that, it showed he his lightweight frame, and his power is a good combo for these sorts of finishes. 

Thomas de Gendt, Adam Hansen, Jelle Vanendert, Roger Kluge, TVDS and Jasper de Buyst can give him a great leadout here, De Gendt and Campanaerts keeping the pace high for the last 5kms and then Kluge, Vanendert, TVDS and De Buyst taking over to get him the perfect leadout. He also said in a pre-race interview before today's stage it was one that he has his eye on, it's one I've had my eye on for him since starting these previews a few weeks ago. He wasn't great today though, but he has a chance to bounce back tomorrow and make up for it. 

Arnaud Démare has gone well on uphill finishes too, that slow-motion sprint to Meudon in Paris-Nice last year springs to mind, it was just over 5% for the last 2kms and he just held off Gorka Izagirre and Christophe Laporte. The TDF stage he won in 2017 to Vittel also had an uphill last 1500m, in a similar finish to this, albeit slightly easier around 1.5%. He mightn't  have much team help, he might have to do it himself. He looked good today too and might have got a lot closer to Gaviria if Viviani hand't bumped Moschetti in to him, he nearly ran in to the barriers on the left. 

Gaviria and Viviani are both a bit hit and miss when it comes to tricky, rolling finishes like this, Viviani has definitely had success on uphill finishes, but he can be very frustrating to trust in a tricky finish like this. He can quite easily win it, or come 12th or 72nd, but his blood will be up after the disqualification today, and will be all out for revenge. Gaviria is similar, he could quite easily blitz this, or come nowhere, and at their prices, I'm willing to avoid both of them. 

The team that probably has the most firepower for a finish like this though is Bora, and with Benedetti, Selig, Schwarzmann and McCarthy probably going to bully their way to the front with 2kms to go, Pascal Ackermann should be in a great position to lay down the power and charge up the hill. But he was expected to comfortably win the uphill sprint earlier this year in Nokere Koerse, but was beaten by 80/1 shot Cees Bol, and also got mugged today by Viviani and Gaviria, they quickly figured out how to beat him.

One rider I had a sneaky suspicion might go well here too was Tao Geoghan-Hart for Ineos. He was superb in the TOTA, ans showed a good turn of speed to take two sprint finishes. Puccio, Sivakov, Bernal, Henao and Moscon could rip it up the last 2kms and launch him from near the front, if the climbers really turn on the gas, the other sprinters might not get close. But he crashed today which might hold him back.. 

Others who could go well? Strong climber/puncheur types who could get involved too include the likes of JJ Rojas, Valentin Madouas, Davide Cimolai and Jay McCarthy should Ackermann struggle. Giacomo Nizzolo should also like this finish, and he did well today, the team were fully behind him and he took a decent 5th place. His team-mate Enrico Gasparotto should be right up there with him too and should beat Canola at odds against I think. Enrico Battaglin was possibly going to be on my shortlist, but he crashed pretty hard today and could well struggle a little tomorrow as a result. 

Diego Ulissi has a good record on finishes like this, that 2nd place for example behind Schachmann in stage 3 of Itzulia on the uphill finish, I think he'll be involved here too and I'm keeping him onside.  One other at the prices I'd like to have a little nibble on is Alexis Vuillermoz, he seems to be going well at the moment and might like this finish. At 66/1, let's have a little interest. 

But also, don't be surprised to see the GC men in the mix too trying to stay out of trouble and possibly take advantage of any time gaps. Primoz Roglic will be very close to the front, staying out of trouble, and he has the kick and acceleration to maybe get involved.. But he's way too short at 9/1, I don't think it's that hard that none of the sprinter types won't be there to beat him. Same with Simon Yates, he won't be far off, but I don't think he'll be winning. 

But with Lotto having a decent leadout for a finish like this, Ewan saying he had his eye on this stage, his need to make up for today and his suitability and ability for this sort of finish with a twisting route and uphill kick, I'm willing to give Ewan another go at the 11/4 with Betway. 

Recommendations:

1.5pts win on Caleb Ewan at 11/4 with Betway

0.5pts e/w on Diego Ulissi at 10/1 with Betway 

0.3pts e/w on Alexis Vuillermoz at 66/1

Matchbets

Vuillermoz to beat Antunes, Ewan to beat Lobato and Ulissi to beat Madouas - 2pts at 6/5

Gasparotto to beat Canola - 2pts at 5/4